Vicbred Super Series Finals

[Messenger]

The semi's

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX290618&fromstate=vic

I am expecting at least 7 winners

but $3 for 9 or more winners is ridiculous

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/megabet/harness-megabet

[aussiebreno]

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX290618&fromstate=vic

I am expecting at least 7 winners

but $3 for 9 or more winners is ridiculous

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/megabet/harness-megabet

Races aren't on paper but on paper it would seem like this:

Wins Race#s 1,3,4,6,7,10,11,12

Possibly win Rc #s 2,5

Maybe win Rc#s 8,9

Footy players say its never as good as it seems and its never as bad as it seems, so perhaps they won't have as a big as expected. Kev your stats also point to odds on favourites getting beaten sometimes (although I wonder if Stewarts odds on faves have a better record than the general population?). My prediction is they win 7.

[Messenger]

Their strike rate with odds on pops is only marginally better than the average Brendan with 12 winners from 18 or 66%
13 from 19 after Semi 1 win and it is only going to get better tonight as I do not think they will have 12 odds on faves
It is only a small sample of 19 now but when they have an odds on pop they have always been $1.70 or shorter

ps It has been a very early start tonight - not everybody can get off that early but they love to catch the last of the gallops punters

[Messenger]

GO Tidal Surge for Dot

[Dot]

Thanks Kev, he did his best, very happy with him.

[Messenger]

How easy has harness racing been for Peter Gleeson. He gets a hold of a mare Hot Foot (1976) and ever since has had a stable full of stars. Ride High might even turn out to be the best of them

[Messenger]

Congratulations to Anne - Hurricane Harley is special

Make it a double with a couple of other qualifiers

[Messenger]

The Quaddie pays $7.70
The early Quaddie paid $19.10 and that was with 2 favourites beaten!

[Messenger]

Brendan was on the right track with his rationalization that not all odds on pops win
They were above average tonight with 7/10 = 70%
and Emma Stewart 6/8 = 75%
With the stable 6/7 with odds on pops coming into the last (86%) we just had to 'play the odds' that they were due for a loss and we would have been ecstatic (Soho Burning Love $17 fixed odds)
In the race before Major Sea ($81 FO) was going to get there in another metre or two and that would have been a real upset!

[Messenger]

So the Stewart stable gets 8 semi winners in the end
and Sportsbet's book was right ($3.30 for exactly 8 - what a hard way to triple your money!)

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX290618&fromstate=vic

[aussiebreno]

Brendan was on the right track with his rationalization that not all odds on pops win
They were above average tonight with 7/10 = 70%
and Emma Stewart 6/8 = 75%
With the stable 6/7 with odds on pops coming into the last (86%) we just had to 'play the odds' that they were due for a loss and we would have been ecstatic (Soho Burning Love $17 fixed odds)
In the race before Major Sea ($81 FO) was going to get there in another metre or two and that would have been a real upset!
Correct in the sense Nostra Villa got beat but my rediction of 7 come undone with the win of Kauloa. Great night of semis. Punters paradise next week and Sunday at Menangle given pleny of form references and cross referencing as well as educated assumptions to be made! Keep this format!
Whats the Stewart prediction for final night? 5? Would be fave for all but 4yo E&G and maybe mares depending on draw.

[Messenger]

Why aren't the barrier draws for the finals up yet?!

Looking around for them I noticed that we really need to do better eg

On the news loop we have a preview for last night (if Fields etc can reset at midnight surely stories with a specific time relevance can too)
Worse still on the Tabcorp Park site I find a promotion for the Italian Cup (it was on June 16)

[David Martin]

Why aren't the barrier draws for the finals up yet?!



Hi Kev, please see: http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/industry-news/

[Messenger]

Thanks David, I am sure we will find a prominent spot for them soon

The unlucky ones amongst the big chances would appear to be

4YO ENTIRES & GELDINGS
13 JILLIBY KUNG FU

4YO MARES
12 CARLAS PIXEL

3YO COLTS & GELDINGS
12 RIDE HIGH

2YO FILLIES
12 TWO TIMES BETTOR

[Messenger]

Looking at some good times at Bendigo tonight, I decided to check out how far off the Tk Rec they were

It is there that I got a reminder that KONAN who did not race as a 2yo, at only his third race start ever as a 3yo holds the Bendigo Tk Rec for 1650m with a 1.52.0

The quality of Emma Stewart's 3yo Colts (and yes they are all colts) in the Final on Saturday is amazing

Poster Boy, Konan, Ride High, Major Times, Liftntorque

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX070718&fromstate=vic#MXM07071808

[Messenger]

Emma cannot however win the 4yo Entires & G's with both her finalists scratched
Does anybody know the story?

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX070718&fromstate=vic#MXM07071806

[Messenger]

While Emma has 5 in each of the Colts finals, Michael Stanley has her outnumbered in the Fillies finals with 3 to her 2

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX070718&fromstate=vic

[Messenger]

With nothing better to do, I am looking at the semi's again and trying to make my selections for the finals
I might need a bit of help Brenno

Looking at the 2yoF I can only see 3 winning chances

I am wondering whether the draw, longer trip and a better lead in favours Kualoa and justifies her price or whether the other 2 are likely to find more improvement - they being Soho Nolita and Two Times Bettor.
Since they all had a freshen up in May, Kualoa has had 4 races as her lead in while the other 2 have only had 2. I know Kualoa was only having his 2nd ever start in the APG final but back then Nolita brained them/her but was no match for her last week
I am not sure the barriers are a huge factor

The market $1.65 - $3.20 - $10 (Nolita)

[Messenger]

The market for the 3yo C&G is interesting
Poster Boy at $1.80 with the draw and should be approaching top fitness after 2 runs back deserves to be top pick
Ride High $2.15 may be super special but this week he cannot be asked to sit 3W for a whole lap to get around them (I think he was treating them with contempt last week)
Konan has done nothing wrong - has had the exact same prep as Poster Boy but I think the run before their break where he couldn't beat Poster Boy may be the form to follow

[aussiebreno]

With nothing better to do, I am looking at the semi's again and trying to make my selections for the finals
I might need a bit of help Brenno

Looking at the 2yoF I can only see 3 winning chances

I am wondering whether the draw, longer trip and a better lead in favours Kualoa and justifies his price or whether the other 2 are likely to find more improvement - they being Soho Nolita and Two Times Bettor.
Since they all had a freshen up in May, Kualoa has had 4 races as his lead in while the other 2 have only had 2. I know Kualoa was only having his 2nd ever start in the APG final but back then Nolita brained them/him but was no match for him last week
I am not sure the barriers are a huge factor

The market $1.65 - $3.20 - $10 (Nolita)
Kev my advice is to back the he's or him in a 2yo Fillies race as they will have more testosterone!

Quite possibly there is improvement in Soho Nolita and Two Times Bettor. On the heat I have Two Times Bettor a better horse this time in than Soho Nolita.
The way Kualoa has dealt with horses like Soho Nolita, Larajay Macray and Single Tree Road has been a bit more impressive than the way Two Times Bettor beat them. Races were run with different types of sectionals however I don't think that matters much. And with the draw I have Kualoa as the one to beat.
From that draw Major Kiss will go very close. Has the gate speed to either lead or hand up and have the last crack. Will look very threatening down the straight.

[aussiebreno]

The market for the 3yo C&G is interesting
Poster Boy at $1.80 with the draw and should be approaching top fitness after 2 runs back deserves to be top pick
Ride High $2.15 may be super special but this week he cannot be asked to sit 3W for a whole lap to get around them (I think he was treating them with contempt last week)
Konan has done nothing wrong - has had the exact same prep as Poster Boy but I think the run before their break where he couldn't beat Poster Boy may be the form to follow

Agree

[Messenger]

Kev my advice is to back the he's or him in a 2yo Fillies race as they will have more testosterone!



Thanks Brendan - fixed

[Messenger]

In the 4yoE&G I would rather back Sirletic at $4 than Jilliby Kung Fu Odds On with their draws
Tell Me Tales and Hurricane Harley to keep winning in their Finals

[Messenger]

We could not have got weather much worse for Finals night - I am pretty sure it is the same everywhere bar the far East of the state

[Richard prior]

No better in Sydney Kev, Real winters day

[Messenger]

Tell Me Tales makes it 11 straight - she did not lose a race between winning the 3yo Vicbred and winning tonights 4yo

In all that time, shares have been available in a half sister by Art Major (& Soaring Franco) and if trotsownthemoment is correct - 10% is still available 12mths later!

http://www.trotsownthemoment.com.au/syndication/available-horses/

[Messenger]

Congratulations to Anne (Bonnie) 2 out of 3 sure ain't bad !!

[Bonnie]

Thank you. Very happy with the results and its extra special when they are home breds .
Aston Villa and Top Tempo are the queens of the broodmare band.

[Messenger]

It seems strange having $207,000 worth of prizemoney at Melton on a Thursday night