Please Explain

[Messenger]

Pacman Hammer in winning by 25m untouched at Menangle yesterday has taken 5 secs off his best time. With a NR in the 50's he has run 1.50.7

The now 6yo has been in work for the last 6mths but had not won for his previous 22 starts (and had not had a stable change from MJ McCarthy)

Admittedly we went from racing at Bathurst to Menangle yesterday

Looking at his 3 previous starts is interesting:

10 days prior he appeared lose a heap of ground (out of pic) when he broke at the start and looked pretty good only being beat 11m (winners MR 1.57.6)

Before that was a shocker where he did not put in despite a soft 1x2 trip

His other December start he led and should have been able to win, so although 2nd it was pretty weak

Here is yesterday's win
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC050121#PCC05012102

The previous three starts
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BH261220#BHC26122003

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BH161220#BHC16122009

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BH091220#BHC09122009

[gutwagon]

Joe Biden may have backed him !

[Showgrounds]

I watched the replay of this race yesterday an two days later I'm still awaiting publication of the stewards report for the meeting. Anything but a full-blown inquiry into the incredible improvement of this horse severely devalues the sport and signals that anything goes in NSW.

[Messenger]

The Stewards Report is now out


PACMAN HAMMER– When questioned regarding the performance of PACMAN HAMMER in particular its ability to rate 1:50.7 for the mile rate, driver J McCarthy explained that PACMAN HAMMER performed well at Bathurst on 26TH December after galloping out and losing significant ground the gelding was able to beat several runners home and finished only 11 metres from the winner. He added that he was confident that PACMAN HAMMER would perform well if he was able to lead. J McCarthy stated that after leading it became apparent that he had set his sulky too close to the hind legs of PACMAN HAMMER and as a result the gelding continually struck the off side wheel resulting in PACMAN HAMMER over racing. J McCarthy added that he was aware that PACMAN HAMMER has had tractability issues previously therefore he was reluctant to try and restrain the gelding to any great degree and elected to try and keep PACMAN HAMMER settled which allowed him to run along. J McCarthy said that he was surprised that PACMAN HAMMER recorded such a fast time and put this down to the contacting of the sulky, the fact that he horse has ability and, track and weather conditions which were also conducive to running a faster time. Furthermore, J McCarthy explained that PACMAN HAMMER was dropped to his stable by his brother and trainer Matthew McCarthy on the afternoon of Monday 4th January and would remain in that location indefinitely. J McCarthy’s explanation was noted however he was advised that now that PACMAN HAMMER has established form Stewards would expect that the gelding would race in a consistent manner. In addition, Matthew McCarthy was questioned regarding the location and whereabouts of PACMAN HAMMER leading up to this race. Stewards were satisfied with the explanation tendered by M McCarthy which was consistent with the explanations of both J McCarthy and N McCarthy. Post-race blood and urine swab samples were obtained.

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/stewards-reports/stewards-reports-detail/?mc=PC050121

LOL

I count at least 4 reasons/excuses given by J Mc

Please Sir, I didn't do my homework because I had to take my mum to the Doctor and the Dr said I was sick too but I tried to do it this morning but the dog ate it and I could not find any more paper

[Messenger]

It has also been pointed out to me that someone of his experience would be expected to pick up the sulky problem in the warm up
And you would normally expect a horse that over-races to pull up pretty quick

[Showgrounds]

It has also been pointed out to me that someone of his experience would be expected to pick up the sulky problem in the warm up
And you would normally expect a horse that over-races to pull up pretty quick

Yep, ban the whip immediately! No need for them, an ill-fitting sulky will surely encourage Dobbin to run 1:50.7 with his head on his chest. I read and smell unadulterated BS.

Now, to the horse's stabling arrangements. What Mat McCarthy told the stewards corroborates what his brother and sister in law told them. All honky dory! No need for the stewards to let the public in on the answer, let's collect our pay and all go home!

My crystal ball tells me Pacman Hanover will have the misfortune of racing with a sulky that actually fits in future, therefore it may struggle to reproduce it's winning form. Or if it does win the stewards will test the air pressure in the sulky tyres when they should be testing the horse's spleen. More specifically its blood.

Another sellout, never bet on the trots while HRNSW uses Pink Panther movies as stewards training tools.

[Messenger]

Broke in the Score Up today and took no competitive part in the race finishing 160m last when $1.65

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC190121#PCC19012103

(otherwise he would have won by 70m as they only rated 1.55.9)

[Showgrounds]

Broke in the Score Up today and took no competitive part in the race finishing 160m last when $1.65

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC190121#PCC19012103

(otherwise he would have won by 70m as they only rated 1.55.9)

Starter and stewards all asleep on the job. JMc was saving wildly at the starter, ignored. Should have been declared a non starter, ignored. Punters thrown on the fire.

[Messenger]

It will be interesting to read the Stewards Report to see if he had a legitimate reason for the starter to think it was anything more than a break

[Mighty Atom]

There are more than a couple of trainers over there on the east coast with dubious :confused::confused: near their names not hard to work out who is in control of harness racing in NSW and Vic and it ain't the stewards.

[Beltane]

Here's the report:

PACMAN HAMMER– (barrier 3) Broke gait during the score up and as a result was out of position at the start and took no competitive part in the event. Prior to the declaration of all clear, Stewards reviewed the start of the event with regards to the gelding breaking gait and also the circumstances regarding driver J McCarthy raising his right arm. Upon review, Mr McCarthy stated that his gelding, in his opinion, broke gait as a result of chasing the mobile barrier and as he was of the opinion that his gelding was not afforded a fair start and this being the reasons for the gelding breaking gait, he attempted to alert the starter. It was further established that there had not been any gear faults with PACKMAN HAMMER. Upon consideration, Stewards concluded that as PACMAN HAMMER left the pre-race formation, the mobile barrier was still stationary before proceeding forward. It was further established that the gelding broke gait free of any interference and free of any gear faults. Although acknowledging the comments of Mr McCarthy, Stewards did not find that the manner in which Mr McCarthy was approaching the mobile was an adequate reason establish the cause of the gelding breaking gait. Having formed this conclusion Stewards were of the view that PACKMAN HAMMER was afforded an opportunity to score-up and the gelding breaking gait was as a result of the geldings own tractability. As a result, PACKMAN HAMMER was declared a starter and the all-clear was subsequently given on the judge’s numbers. PACMAN HAMMER was issued with its last chance in the mobile barrier draw.

It was all the horse's fault that the punters did their dough.

[JanellePeter]

Hi - As an analyser I see things like the run at Menangle 5/2/21 all the time. The runs prior at Bathurst were much slower pace.
See below after I have applied all required factors to the runs to convert them to Menangle times:

Date Location Mile First Last8 800-400 400T
05-Jan-21 MEN 114.7s 57.5s 57.2s 28.7s 28.5
26-Dec-20 BAT 117.6s 61.5s 56.2s 28.4s 27.8
16-Dec-20 BAT 117.8s 62.7s 55.1s 28.2s 26.9
The times above are without including actual distance run and that brings them closer again.

Noting that on average horses times over similar distance between Menangle and Bathurst will decrease by 1.5 seconds and last 800m by around 1 second. Yes this race was run quick comparatively (Mainly due to the fast first pace) and this horse was not tried at this pace previously. Given the advantage of leading I didn't see it is a massive discrepancy. If you chart first vs last800 you will see what I mean.
In saying all that I had no idea Pacman Hammer would lead this race or that it would be run at that speed so my pre-race analysis was wrong. Also note I see it a lot when a horse runs a much quicker race that it will gallop next start. Happens regularly but you can't bank on it.

Hope this helps explain it a little bit.

[aussiebreno]

Hi - As an analyser I see things like the run at Menangle 5/2/21 all the time. The runs prior at Bathurst were much slower pace.
See below after I have applied all required factors to the runs to convert them to Menangle times:

Date Location Mile First Last8 800-400 400T
05-Jan-21 MEN 114.7s 57.5s 57.2s 28.7s 28.5
26-Dec-20 BAT 117.6s 61.5s 56.2s 28.4s 27.8
16-Dec-20 BAT 117.8s 62.7s 55.1s 28.2s 26.9
The times above are without including actual distance run and that brings them closer again.

Noting that on average horses times over similar distance between Menangle and Bathurst will decrease by 1.5 seconds and last 800m by around 1 second. Yes this race was run quick comparatively (Mainly due to the fast first pace) and this horse was not tried at this pace previously. Given the advantage of leading I didn't see it is a massive discrepancy. If you chart first vs last800 you will see what I mean.
In saying all that I had no idea Pacman Hammer would lead this race or that it would be run at that speed so my pre-race analysis was wrong. Also note I see it a lot when a horse runs a much quicker race that it will gallop next start. Happens regularly but you can't bank on it.

Hope this helps explain it a little bit.
Explain how you got each sectional? Makes no sense to me.

[Messenger]

Not that clear I'm afraid Janelle

All I can tell is that you added 2 secs to both his first and last halves at Menangle

I think all you are saying is that they had not tried letting him run from the get-go before (although it was not intentional)
I guess they will just have to let him run all the way from now on as he showed amazing stamina and can run 5 secs faster that way

[JanellePeter]

How the sectionals were calculated is specific to the program I use. The important part is the relationship between each of the sectionals.
The first sectionals seem to agree with your statement above.

[aussiebreno]

How the sectionals were calculated is specific to the program I use. The important part is the relationship between each of the sectionals.
The first sectionals seem to agree with your statement above.

So despite your post saying you usually decrease 1.5secs for Bathurst compared to Menangle you have added 3 seconds (instead of 1.5seconds) in this case to get to 114.7 for the Menangle run (extra 20metres). You say last 800m add 1 second yet you have added 1 second for both the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Despite the extra addition seemingly at your discretion the adjusted time is STILL 3 seconds quicker than the Bathurst time (40metres). So off your own normal adjusted time its a roughly 60metres improvement (covered what 10m extra so still 50m improvement in distance covered) and you're saying things like this happen all the time?

[Showgrounds]

So despite your post saying you usually decrease 1.5secs for Bathurst compared to Menangle you have added 3 seconds (instead of 1.5seconds) in this case to get to 114.7 for the Menangle run (extra 20metres). You say last 800m add 1 second yet you have added 1 second for both the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Despite the extra addition seemingly at your discretion the adjusted time is STILL 3 seconds quicker than the Bathurst time (40metres). So off your own normal adjusted time its a roughly 60metres improvement (covered what 10m extra so still 50m improvement in distance covered) and you're saying things like this happen all the time?

I smell bovine droppings.

[Messenger]

3 weeks ago Nikks Pick was racing in Tasmania
She had 50 starts for the leading stable of Ben Yole, 46 of them as a 3yo, for only 1 win
After a 7 month spell she had 10 starts in 10 months for a couple of different trainers over there for 1 more win

Now a 5yo she comes to Victoria where the racing is superior and starts $2.70 and $2.60 fav for a second and a win for Kate Hargreaves
She was a NR36 in an 'up to 51NR' race at Wedderburn today.
I reckon it is a PLEASE EXPLAIN job, I and I am sure Ben Yole would be interested (remember she was racing in Tassie just 3wks ago)
Maybe the question didn't so much need to be asked today as she had finished 2nd at Stawell - maybe Stawell was where it needed to be asked (but nothing in the Stewards Report)

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=WD310121#WDC31012104

Just click on her name to get her complete record

I can imagine someone bringing her over to try as a broodmare as she has VG bloodlines - maybe they decided to give her a try first and got lucky but that is instant improvement
Maybe Alex Ashwood's Tassie connection spotted something we don't know about

[Messenger]

The Hargreaves stable has actually snuck up on me
I didn't realize that they are now the 4th leading stable in Vic, with only Stewart, Gath and Lilley in front of them

In 18/19 she trained 24 winners from 129 starters
In 19/20 she trained 59 winners from 315
Good strike rates of about 19% (close to a winner every 5)

Then in the extra 4 months added to the end of 2020
an incredible 60 winners in 218 starters
that is a strike rate of 27.5% (better than a winner every 4)
That is Emma Stewart stuff

Doing a little more investigation of Nicks Pick, I noticed that that 2nd win of hers in Hobart on Nov 6, she started $1.65 fav despite having only won 1 of 55 - she was first up for a new stable (only at the trots!)

[Hanrahan]

Messenger.

I assume prior to your ” I reckon it is a PLEASE EXPLAIN job” statement you watched and reflected on the last four performances in Tassie where it won, came third and had two tougher runs. Obviously the punters view that it was a decent chance was reflected in the starting price and Wedderburn is a track that generally attracts weaker horses. For the record I have no acquaintance with Hargreaves stable.

[Messenger]

Gulity as charged Maurice - I was a bit slack and forgot that although the HRV horse search/performance list does not show a 'replay icon' for her Tassie starts, if you click on the dates it takes you to full race results where you can watch the replay

Carrick 8/1: Started from 4, no opportunity to go forward at start so taken back to 1x5 (that is what 15 means in Tassie comments) and never put in race (lost a bit of contact with 1x4 down the back) Finished 6/10 beaten 15m
Burnie 18/12: Started from 5 (outside of fr on this tiny track), went back to last then had the 3WT for the last 900m (the train has to start early on a 600m track). Lost a bit of contact down the back. Finished 7/9 beaten 12m. The run was just average compared to the leader of the 3WT and the 3WT2 that was on her back
Burnie 20/11: Drew SR2 and got a beautiful 1x1 trail for first 1300m, poor drive as he went 3w at 900 when he didn't seem to need to - so did have a hard run. Finished 3/9 beaten 5m
Hobart/Elwick 6/11: Drew 2 and led and WON 1/6. First up wins by 9m at $1.65 despite only having won 1 of 55 starts. Race obviously lack lustre but notable for 10yo Williamlee who despite being hard driven in the death the whole way, nearly held on for 2nd. He has not won for 4yrs but he is a half bro to Lombo Pocket Watch

Thanks for keeping me honest Maurice - I really enjoyed watching those races and will definitely be tuning into more Tassie races especially day meets at Burnie

Looking at the Stawell field again, I have to admit that any new blood on the scene in that race was probably going to start favourite especially from Fr1
and that 2nd supplied the form for her to start favourite at Wedderburn
She may be a bit one paced and her poor record is probably due to needing a draw to lead where she can keep the pace on all the way

Now Explained

ps I wouldn't be surprised if she makes a broodmare

[Hanrahan]

Messenger

Thanks for the honest reply. I enjoy your posts and passion for the game.

Regards

M

[Messenger]

And thanks to you Maurice, as I discovered it was the Burnie Cup yesterday and the replays made for great viewing this afternoon

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BE310121

I highly recommend watching unless you suffer from Vertigo as despite starting in the back straight, the finish of the Cup was not until they passed the winning post for the 5th time!
They say the home straight is 95m but one that looked to have won by half the length of the straight was only credited with winning by 26m

I don't know if the non-cup stand start races were new distances but the Tk Rec was broken/set for three distances yesterday

[Messenger]

Kate Hargreaves at Mildura is now equal to Emma Stewart at her peak - although Stewart's success was statewide however Stewart often had multiple runners in a race while Hargreaves only needs one.
Last night she had 4 starters for 4 winners
Her winning strike rate at the track is now 49% (38 from 78) for the last 12 months
The racing at Mildura is clearly easier as her strike rate is half that elsewhere

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML240221

[Messenger]

Kate had 4 starters at Mildura tonight for 2 wins and 2 seconds so she keeps up her 50% strike rate

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML050321

[Messenger]

Don't get me wrong - I AM ALL FOR STRONG PENALTIES
But I am looking for a bit of detail as to why
Malcolm Locke has just copped 18¾yrs
I need a NSWelshman to tell me what I obviously don't know
As far as I know he has only been training a couple of years
but he must have irked somebody off big time as down
in Vic you only get 6mths for leaving a course because your runner died and had to hurry home to bury it in an asbestos pit before telling the authorities

http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=48216

[Messenger]

Please explain to the punters

The Ashwood stable had Elleker Hanonver in R3 at Warragul today and the punters backed it into $1.30

It was its first start for the stable since coming over from WA where it had had 122 starts for 4 wins
In its last 20 starts in WA it had not started shorter than $45 but the average price would be closer to $100 for these starts

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=WR240521#WRC24052106

[Showgrounds]

Please explain to the punters

The Ashwood stable had Elleker Hanonver in R3 at Warragul today and the punters backed it into $1.30

It was its first start for the stable since coming over from WA where it had had 122 starts for 4 wins
In its last 20 starts in WA it had not started shorter than $45 but the average price would be closer to $100 for these starts

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=WR240521#WRC24052106

I think the answer may lie in the ownership, there have been precedents to this horse. Get the magnifying glass out Kev, there is a pattern developing of poorly performed horses from WA obscurity, coming east and growing four new legs. Look no further than the similarly performed Dibaba in NSW. A nothing from the wheat belt, comes to Sydney and wins 9 straight!

I note the horse in question at Warragul had a pre race swab, no post race though. Questions I'd like answered: do swabs actually get tested, are the stewards aware the horse had only raced in WA only 5 weeks ago and had not been trialled, why was there no questioning of the mare's improved performance and the betting?

All very valid questions you have raised Kev. If the "integrity unit" stopped reading Phantom comics and started studying this readily available, job related information we might get some answers. I suggest an unannounced stable inspection the day before the mare's next race with some proper swabbing would be a good starting point.

[Messenger]

First start in NSW 7yo mare Dibaba starts $1.09 and wins by 29m then like you said wins the next 8 and now has a NSW record of 9wins 1second from 10 NSW starts this year
She had won 5 of 131 before that in WA

[Messenger]

Please explain to the punters

The Ashwood stable had Elleker Hanonver in R3 at Warragul today and the punters backed it into $1.30

It was its first start for the stable since coming over from WA where it had had 122 starts for 4 wins
In its last 20 starts in WA it had not started shorter than $45 but the average price would be closer to $100 for these starts

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=WR240521#WRC24052106

This wasn't the Hargreaves stable's first WA incredible miss
Tonight's $1.20 Bendigo winner Im Loki had his first Vic start at Mildura on May 14 and started the unbelievable quote of $1.04 but he too finished 2nd
At his 3 previous starts in WA he had started at $101+ and been beaten by a total of 100m in those starts. He had a WA record of 110 starts for 6 wins

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?horseId=796342

[Showgrounds]

You are on the trail, Kev. And Aaron Bain Racing must be the best in the world at spotting the hidden talent in 100+ start WA bush no hopers.

And I suspect the steward in charge, in Frank Drebin style, will say "move along, nothing to see here!"

[Messenger]

I don't know the WA connection, I know he is a SA trainer with a 17/51 33% strike rate this season, so I am not sure why the horses aren't going to him

[Showgrounds]

I don't know the WA connection, I know he is a SA trainer with a 17/51 33% strike rate this season, so I am not sure why the horses aren't going to him

Hargreaves trains his horses in Victoria. They also have others in NSW and QLD that seem to come from obscurity to short term stardom.

Check Im Loki's previous start when $1.04 beaten favourite then read the stewards report. I note no gear changes were notified tonight and the stewards didn't raise the issue. Intriguing.

Both of the two horses finished up the track at Northam on 13 March continuing there appallingly poor form. Both have only been in Victoria a little over a month yet have had starting prices like Ride High. Very intriguing!

[Messenger]

I know all that Trev, the question I was pondering is why he is buying horses to race in other states directly, never being trained by himself (you forgot to mention the many he has in Tassie with Yole)
Maybe he sees a horse and thinks - that horse would be perfect for Vic, or maybe he sees a horse for sale at a bargain price and thinks that horse has a couple of Vic wins it. Maybe he has become more of a syndicator?
He has an excellent website and up to date facebook page

[Messenger]

Please explain to the punters

The Ashwood stable had Elleker Hanonver in R3 at Warragul today and the punters backed it into $1.30

It was its first start for the stable since coming over from WA where it had had 122 starts for 4 wins
In its last 20 starts in WA it had not started shorter than $45 but the average price would be closer to $100 for these starts

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=WR240521#WRC24052106

Well tonight at Mildura it started $1.04 on the TAB and got stitched up and was beaten by a $104 pop. He is proving a very expensive investment for some

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML280521#MLC28052113

[Showgrounds]

Elleker Hanover just ran second, again as a long, long odds on favourite in the late at Mildura after settling 3 back the fence. The tearaway leader Mista Pumblechook paid $106 in a restricted race. Perhaps racing twice in 5 days at either end of the state took some sting out of the favourite? Amazingly, Tuesday night's winner I'm Loki was beaten at Mildura a fortnight ago by a $150 shot!

No worries, the same connections won race 5 with Mondooley Mach. It's won 5 with 3 placings from 8 since winning first up at Ouyen on 31 March. Its previous 132 starts (in WA) yielded 7 wins and 46 placings. It started $1.60 at Ouyen after a 23 metre 8th at Williams (look that up in your road atlas). Again, zero to hero in 6 weeks 3,400 KMs away, no trial and 6 weeks between races. Same pattern. Just gets curiouser and curiouser!

[Messenger]

Im Loki must be hurting the big punters who lost when she was $1.04 at her first Vic start and again tonight at $1.40 in her third start

[DRUIDRACING]

sounds like its happening again.....different place same Mo....and quite a few came away unscathed

[Messenger]

Im Loki must be hurting the big punters who lost when she was $1.04 at her first Vic start and again tonight at $1.40 in her third start

and again tonight at Bendigo $1.40 failure

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN090621#BNC09062103

[Beltane]

Sounds like a good name as by co-incidence, Loki from Norse mythology was a trickster, a god of discord and mischief.

[Messenger]

Captaintreacherous and Betting Line are 2 new big name sires on the scene
Now if you have a Betting Line colt why would you call him Captain Barnato (to confuse the punters)
I realize Captain Barnato is a historical figure but save the name for when you breed a Captaintreacherous
(Sorry, just being my overopinionated self but I have always had a strong interest in good naming)

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI100621#KIC10062105

[Messenger]

and again tonight at Bendigo $1.40 failure

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN090621#BNC09062103

Hargreaves is doing better with another Bain horse, On My Oath, who has won 2 from 2 since coming from WA (only $4,500 races mind you) at $1.30 and $1.04. He had not won for well over 2 years before coming across

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?horseId=784887

[Messenger]

The WA loophole is closing on July 1 Wrong It closed on June 17

The minimum NR for a horse that has only ever raced in Western Australia is NR50 or NR35 for a 2YO.

http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=48539

Eg Im Loki - he is going around again from barrier 1 (courtesy of the loophole) in the last at Ballarat but it does not appear as though he will be odds on tonight

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA170621#BAC17062104

[Messenger]

$1.70 FO $1.40 Tote and beaten again by the one that was equal favourite with him earlier

[Showgrounds]

Hargreaves is doing better with another Bain horse, On My Oath, who has won 2 from 2 since coming from WA (only $4,500 races mind you) at $1.30 and $1.04. He had not won for well over 2 years before coming across

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?horseId=784887

And makes it 3 from 3 in the first at Charlton today, in an up to NR51 class. https://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?horseId=784887 It makes you wonder why it couldn't win in its previous 45 starts in WA yet improved out of sight when it debuted in Victoria just two months later. Then again, I am not the one to ask these questions!

The remarkable success of the Kate Hargreaves stable reminds me of the great line from the movie When Harry Met Sally - "I'll have what she's having"!

[Messenger]

But Trev you have to remember that we are talking about mature horses that have been assessed NR 30 under the 'WA loophole' (which will be closing in 10 days) and get barrier 1 under PBD despite being horses that have won a few over their career

Wrong - loophole closed June 17

[Showgrounds]

But Trev you have to remember that we are talking about mature horses that have been assessed NR 30 under the 'WA loophole' (which will be closing in 10 days) and get barrier 1 under PBD despite being horses that have won a few over their career

True. But look at what they have been racing against in WA! Good luck and well done by all connections for being smart enough to exploit the conditions. However, the drastic form improvement in just a few weeks, for all of these horses, puzzles my inquisitive mind. From Shanks Pony to Village Kid in a few weeks. I will be eternally grateful that I do not have to pay the bills of any also-rans that finish behind them.

[Messenger]

Elleker Hanover finally won last night and paid $1.04 tote $1.20 fixed
Even though she is thrown in with her WA rating, you have to be a brave punter
or a mug to back her
Even if you got $1.30 if you had put $1,000 on her at each of her 3 starts you would be down $1,700
Even if she had won all three you were looking at risking a $1,000 each time only to win $1,000 in total due to the incredibly short odds she has started each race

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN220621#BNC22062105

[KTQ]

Elleker Hanover finally won last night and paid $1.04 tote $1.20 fixed
Even though she is thrown in with her WA rating, you have to be a brave punter
or a mug to back her
Even if you got $1.30 if you had put $1,000 on her at each of her 3 starts you would be down $1,700
Even if she had won all three you were looking at risking a $1,000 each time only to win $1,000 in total due to the incredibly short odds she has started each race

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN220621#BNC22062105

Elleker couldn't run out of sight on a dark night over here. It smacked my gob that she was repeatedly favourite

[Messenger]

And makes it 3 from 3 in the first at Charlton today, in an up to NR51 class. https://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?horseId=784887 It makes you wonder why it couldn't win in its previous 45 starts in WA yet improved out of sight when it debuted in Victoria just two months later. Then again, I am not the one to ask these questions!

The remarkable success of the Kate Hargreaves stable reminds me of the great line from the movie When Harry Met Sally - "I'll have what she's having"!

And On My Oath makes it 4 in a row today

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MH280621#MHC28062104

Authorities should be embarrassed that they left such a gaping loophole in the Ratings system which has cost a lot of 2nd place-getters serious money

[Showgrounds]

On My Oath is now 4 from 4 in Victoria, an unbelievable improvement on its 8 from 141 in WA. The Hargreaves / Ashwood training team and Aaron Bain Racing / Summit Bloodstock Syndications ownership are absolute geniuses when it comes to finding and purchasing untapped talent from WA. Lopsided handicapping system aside, I suppose they might say they are feeding them more grain and giving them more work has improved them all. Or, in this case, the horse just needed 140 starts to run into some form.

Yeah, sure!

[Messenger]

Trev, we have to remember it is the handicapping system and the PRB which is putting them in the position to lead which is half way home in harness racing. These are not races against champs and these horses have generally won more races than their opponents regardless of how long ago

[Messenger]

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX290621#MXC29062103

Maybe these lower grade $4,500 races are a raffle but the Hargreaves stable has done well to turn Mach The Knife into a winner tonight when only 13 days ago he was racing for another stable

They had another first run for the stable with All The Fours in R2 but only managed 3rd

[Messenger]

How do you align NZ form with Australian form
Julie Douglas/Glenn Douglas trained Khaki Nui to its first up win in Oz tonight
Craig Rail tipped it on the basis of it working home nicely for 3rd three starts ago at Methven
But the MR for that race was 2.07.4 (SS)
He rated 1.55.6 tonight and started $1.30
In his previous 24 starts he had never broken 2 minutes
19 of his 24 starts had been Stands

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP300621#SPC30062110

The rule for NZ form v Oz for new imports:
NZ imports are lengths better than their NZ form suggests

[Messenger]

There were 6 trots races and only 4 pacing races at Ballarat tonight so I thought I would look at the Vic TAB pools to see if there was any difference between gaits - No
But I did notice that in the pacing R6 the First Four pool of $16k was 2 - 3 times more than in any other race

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2021-08-18/BALLARAT/BAL/H/6/Win

A 9 horse field with an Even money fav

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA180821#BAC18082103

"Why was it so?"

[Messenger]

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=AP140921#APC14092106

You can see why some would be asking questions about R7 at Albion Park yesterday
No.1 determined to lead, drifted in betting
No.8 who held his back was well supported
Pete McMullen is a regular driver of both

You will note Leonard Cain on No.1 has a good look around early on
He comes off the fence down the back straight before tiring, which he had to after that first half, very much to the fav's advantage but then comes back down

The Stewards Comment column suggests no questions were even asked

[Messenger]

No questions asked in the Stewards Report

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/stewards-reports/stewards-reports-detail/?mc=AP140921

[Messenger]

The stewards have spotted this one in R2 at Redcliffe yesterday
Lola Weidemann needs a long holiday
She chose not to lead on the $1.25 fav
Put it 3rd fence
After ripping her arms out of their sockets for much of the race
Misty Creek nearly got up but not quite thanks to Lola

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=RE160921#REC16092106

[Showgrounds]

Yep. Drive of the Day and wins a bottle of Sparkling Starwine that has been lost for decades down the shed. The one with the plastic stopper that is near impossible to remove. The stewards need to remove this stopper.

[Messenger]

Peterprofit does not think that R7 at GP was all above board last night
The change of tactics was one thing but I cannot help but think the favourite contributed to his own demise
One thing he is definitely right about is that caller Richard Bell was not too impressed with the whole affair

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GP170921#GPM17092114

[Messenger]

In the Tailamade Lombo on Saturday, even though it was a Gp3, some are worried about Joe Pace's rubber necking on the leader before letting her drift off the fence to allow a sprint lane run when one does not exist at Ballarat, for the heavily supported Itzamajor Surprise (also strange that results list it as $12 when it started $6.50 at best)

Stewards: Joe Pace, driver of Diamond Party NZ (4th place) was fined $100 under rule 162(1)(www)(c) for failing to make sufficient effort at the entrance to the home straight to prevent Diamond Party NZ from shifting away from a marker pegline position when leading, which resulted in Itzamajor Surprise (2nd place) being advantaged when obtaining a clear inside run. In assessing penalty, although acknowledging the feature race status, Stewards also determined that the racing manners of Diamond Party NZ had contributed to this occurrence and due to Diamond Party NZ continuing to shift out in the home straight the mare was placed on its last chance to race truly.

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA180921#MXM18092105

[Messenger]

And when you look at the last 400m you can see why some might suggest that David Moran was driving dead on Always Fast in R9 on Saturday

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA180921#MXM18092110

[Messenger]

What was Michael Stanley playing at in R4 at Kilmore
on the $81 long pop Watch List
he goes from booting up to keep fav Major Moth 3wide then as soon as MM drops into the 1x1 behind him he drops the anchor and luckily Damian Wilson was alert and pulled straight out
Michael Stanley's driving was dam near dangerous IMO

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI240921#KIM24092104

With a lot of luck replays may be up later

[Messenger]

As good a place as any to post this

Most have heard of the Peterprofit (Archie Butterfly) website/blog
Posted today: For legal reasons that cannot be discussed we are presently reviewing all articles on this website to ensure that they are compliant with an order of the court. This has meant taking down most stories.

[Messenger]

I hadn't noticed this at the bottom of PP's page before
I think there is a role for PP as racing needs critical evaluation, maybe this court ruling will provide the moderation that was lacking

[Messenger]

Now in the Jason Grimson NSW barn, Boncel Benjamin went from finishing last over 2300m at Menangle a fortnight ago to winning in 1.53.2 on Saturday - that is faster than King Of Swing has ever managed

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC091021#PCM09102103

ps Boncel Bendjamin's best ever winning Mile rate is listed as 1.51.2 but that is plain wrong as the race was only over 1190m

[Messenger]

Looking at the fields for tonight I just noticed that
Egodan ran 1.49.8 last Saturday when 2nd at Menangle

3yrs ago he got down to 1.51.8 (his very best non winning performances back then got down to about 1.51)
That was when he was about to turn 7yo
Under the old system he would now be 10yo and he has improved 2 secs
14mths ago he probably got within 6secs of that time when 2nd at Mildura
Going on Tk Records Menangle is 7 secs faster than Mildura (not that the horses holding the records are comparable, so it is probably a little bit slower than that)

So maybe Jason Grimson has a canny eye for the potential of an old horse
Some may suggest he has a magic elixir but you can see that you can say the times are there

[Messenger]

Sometimes I think PeterProfit imagines things BUT this one is undeniable and yet The Stewards saw nothing
Watch the finishing straight for this race from Menangle on Dec 10

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC101221#PCC10122102

Entering the home straight for the last time Jack Callaghan was driving the 4th positioned horse who was tiring on the pegs
He looks behind as if he has heard someone shout out to him
He then steers his horse into the sprint lane to get out the way (for Cameron Hart on the equal favourite who then finishes strongly but only gets fourth)
His horse was not galloping and he had no legitimate reason for entering the sprint lane

This had to be inquired into and would seem to be a candidate for many months suspension

[Messenger]

I should have added that because there is no sprint lane at Menangle, he has actually taken his horse right off the track!

[Messenger]

Well at least the stewards did follow it up

https://www.hrnsw.com.au/racing/stewards/followupreports/263

Stewards questioned driver J Callaghan in relation to his actions approaching the 200 metres when steering MACH THE KNIFE down to the inside of the marker pegs at this point when weakening. Mr Callaghan explained that he had believed his runner had choked down in the event and was stopping abruptly, and when alert to runners improving quickly behind, he elected to move his runner down the track to avoid any contact and for safety reasons. Given the circumstances Stewards found the actions of Mr Callaghan to be reasonable and no further action was taken

[Messenger]

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=RE221221#REC22122110

Im Plain Jane had had 28 starts without a win
Her fastest time would have been around 1.58 when beaten 31m at Newcastle
Yesterday she won by 62m in 1.56 at Redcliffe
Redcliffe is a 2.5 second slower track than Newcastle
So she has improved 4.5secs
That would be about 62m

Is this harness racing or chemistry? !

[Messenger]

You have to be kidding
This is what the stewards noted/accepted

General: Trainer Jamie Donovan was questioned regarding the improved performance of Im Plain Jane in comparison to its recent interstate performances. Mr Donovan stated that blood tests carried out after its last Tamworth start indicated an issue with the filly’s condition. He also advised that she was freshened up and he has changed the horses work pattern. Mr Donovan further stated that Im Plain Jane handled the Redcliffe circuit better than the Tamworth track. Stewards noted the comments.

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/stewards-reports/stewards-reports-detail/?mc=RE221221

The same trainer has had her for all her starts. I reckon he could have said he put a battery up her clacka and still had it noted!

You blokes are paid to investigate
A horse improving out of sight and this is the best you can do
Get another job or there will be no industry to employ you soon with pathetic efforts like this

[Messenger]

Alerted to this one by PP site.
I did not know which thread to put it in
Have a look at the FFA that saw Magnificent Storm beaten at GP on Friday night
The leader had to be 80m in front approaching the bell
If he had won this would have been in the What a run! thread
Was it poor execution of a good plan?
The leader went a record for the lead time
PP is suspicious of the once long time disqualified driver
The stewards accepted that it was simply a case of the leader over-racing

Interesting viewing if you have not seen it

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GP280122#GPM28012204

[Messenger]

PP brings us this one from Newcastle
The leader and the favourite on his back are stablemates but the leader was not supposed to die before the straight (where a fanning can be easily explained)

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=NR040222#NRC04022206

[Messenger]

The 3wide horse/driver got a please explain for this Globe Derby race but PP wrote some absolute nonsense about the favourite/leader wanting to get beat (by the girlfriend who won)
If Wayne Hill did not want to win (according to PP) why did he fight to keep the lead
If he didn't want to place why did he drive so vigorously in the straight

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GD070222#GDC07022206

[Messenger]

As Relentless Me was one of the serious chances in R4 at Melton tonight, I hope the stewards ask Jack Laugher what his plan was for winning the race
It appeared like he was intent on losing the race as in a 5 horse race he maneuvered into the worst possible postion of 3f with a slow pace

[Messenger]

There is going to be a couple of drivers asked to explain how they miscounted the laps in the last at Boort today - we had about 6 across the track

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BT060322#BTC06032204

[Showgrounds]

There is going to be a couple of drivers asked to explain how they miscounted the laps in the last at Boort today - we had about 6 across the track

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BT060322#BTC06032204

Perhaps it becomes a licensing requirement that all drivers can at least count to three?

[Showgrounds]

There is going to be a couple of drivers asked to explain how they miscounted the laps in the last at Boort today - we had about 6 across the track

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BT060322#BTC06032204

Two drivers suspended - or sent back to pre-school - so far and three adjourned inquiries into other drives. The stewards earned their cup of tea after that one and I'd love to be privy to their conversation on the drive home. And I'd love to know how one senior driver is going to talk his way out of a very lengthy suspension or, more fittingly, disqualification.

Mistaking the laps just proves you are a dill, flogging your horse mercilessly shows you are a cruel dill. The karma bus is revving from idle and heading your way.

[Messenger]

It does not seem to be a case of miscounting (other than Denbeigh Wade who went 5 wide at the bell) rather a case of crazy driving by Glenn Douglas - it was his horse Malava Miss that galloped down the back with 1¾ laps to go (effectively losing all chance) but then he continues to drive with the whip and sends it wide approaching the bell but understandably gets pushed even wider by Olivia Weidenbach on the favourite as she knows it can only be a hinderance to her. Olivia gets 5 weeks (the stewards did not understand). What are they going to give Glenn Douglas? It is still adjourned. Maybe they think we will forget about it - like the pre 2018 Interdom disqualification that we are still awaiting resolution of

Have a look at the replay and see if you can make any sense of Glenn Douglas's drive? Watch how many times he belts the horse after it breaks and loses any realistic chance of being able to do it tough and even place

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BT060322#BTC06032204

This is all we have from the stewards so far

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/stewards-reports/stewards-reports-detail/?mc=BT060322

[Showgrounds]

The Douglas drive is a disgrace to harness racing, as was Weidenbach whipping her horse out of the mobile.

[Messenger]

There are 10 invited drivers for Invitational Drivers Championship at Horsham on Monday so why include R3 in the championship when there are only 6 horses
I can guess that it was advertised as Ratings Exempt and if they deemed 6 horses enough for the race to go ahead they had to honour the ratings exemption But to a statistics buff, 10 into 6 doesn't go

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=HS140322

[Messenger]

I can see why the race had to hold up - for the President's horse to win ;)
see more on the winner in the Family Ties/Well Related thread

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=HS140322#HSC14032205

[Messenger]

Rigthio Nathan what are you up to?
Is this a bucket list thing?
Telemachus in the feature Melton Plate on Saturday night
Tele on NR48 is the equal lowest rated horse going around on the night - the other two are 3yo trotting maidens
Good luck to you

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX190322#MXM19032206

[Messenger]

If I was Geoff Webster, I might be a bit surprised. A mere month ago Stingray Tara was in his stable but left for Jason Grimson's barn. Last week he won at Menangle in his best time of 1.53.8 - quite plausible going on narrow defeats at Bendigo and Geelong last year which would have seen him rate < 1.55 and we know Menangle is faster. Then last night he comes out and rates 1.50.8, albeit with a dream run but still 1.50.8

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC260322#PCM26032205

[aussiebreno]

I am writing this one on behalf of Geoff Webster. A mere month ago Stingray Tara was in his stable but left for Jason Grimson's barn. Last week he won at Menangle in his best time of 1.53.8 - quite plausible going on narrow defeats at Bendigo and Geelong last year which would have seen him rate < 1.55 and we know Menangle is faster. Then last night he comes out and rates 1.50.8, albeit with a dream run but still 1.50.8

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC260322#PCM26032205
As in sticking up for Webster or he has asked you to post this?

[Messenger]

As in sticking up for - sorry, I will edit to make it clearer

[Messenger]

Ben Yole has really got PP's knickers in a knot after the last at Echuca last night - he is wanting Life for everyone (even suggesting the draws were rigged LOL)
There is an INQADJ so the stewards are asking 'Please Explain'
How the stablemate ran up the track in the back straight to let the well supported favourite through
The crazy thing is that they did not need to do it as they could have waited until the sprint lane for the leader hung on for second

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=EC310522#ECC31052209

[Messenger]

2 days later the same horses go around in the last at Kilmore with a third Yole horse
Robert Walters led on Machavelli again but Border Cross was obviously supposed to win again as it was $1.40
Plus I think Walters long look around about 50m from the post was to see where the fav had got to as I think he already knew that nothing was going to take second off him

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI020622#KIC02062212

[Messenger]

What is the point of having pegs determining the course
Have a look at the last 400m of Michael Stanley's drive on Iolanta in R4 at Melton tonight
He went a mile inside at least a couple of pegs to get 3rd

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX180622#MXM18062205

[Messenger]

PP says "many good judges have grave concerns about the last race at Echuca on Wednesday night"
The first start winner was backed into favouritism

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=EC220622#ECC22062205

I don't like all the head turning
Why did Olivia Weidenbach turn her head 3 times down the back straight, maybe just checking she was not going to be pocketed but it just seemed a little excessive
and then why did Nathan Jack have such long looks behind before and after the line, maybe checking that he could cruise and hold 2nd but it was such a long look and then again after the post

We can read things into races once somebody suggests something but the favourite certainly had a dream run and was untouched
Not part of PP's concerns but I could not help but notice how easily the fav went from 3 back the fence to the 1x2 in the home straight the first time

[Showgrounds]

Agree Kev, the sight of all the swivelling heads made me feel I'd gone back in time to Sideshow Alley at the Royal Show. Nathan Jack's prolonged turn-around stares were hardly a glance over the shoulder. Perhaps his recent success has made him forget his actions at Cobram that caused him so much grief. Nothing about this race looks pretty in my eyes. If James Herbertson won the famed magnum of Sparkling Starwine for drive of the night he might have to share it.

Interesting that the winner was first up and backed to favouritism because it didn't appear to have any trial form. Maybe the punters gave it benefit of the doubt because the rest of the field performed like scrubbers.

[Messenger]

Albion Park Track Record

see Next post for relevance

[Messenger]

The last trial at Albion Park on Monday
Jason Grimson is a miracle man
These first 2 horses were previously trained by Brent Lilley and Emma Stewart (mugs I guess)

1.49.1

That is near on a full second off the Tk Rec (see above post)

Link for viewing

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=AP270622#APA27062209

[Messenger]

PP also points out that Grimson's Interdom winner of last year is back in the Duffy stable and trialing nothing like the above 2
Leaders back in this Shep trial last week and could not hold second

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/trials/trial-results/?trialId=20789

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQJ0pkg4E6g

[Messenger]

I Cast No Shadow has nearly gone that fast before - at Menangle mind you
But Ideal Dan has taken a couple of seconds off his best time
And Matty Craven's Bettor Isolate has take off even more!
While the other two have gone faster than they have ever gone before

[Messenger]

I even got the stopwatch out and the time is correct

[Showgrounds]

I am turning into Jack Little because "words fail me". If I start following professional wrestling I will have become Jack Little. Harness racing is becoming as predictable as professional wrestling at times. Witness some of the examples Kev has posted. There are very few clean-cut Larry O'Dea types left in the trot game these days but the Killer Kowalski / Skull Murphy types seem to flourish. Always something illegal concealed in their tights!

[Messenger]

Diabolical

[Showgrounds]

Oh no, the claw hold!

[Messenger]

On the AHRI facebook page prominent owner Gordon Banks has pointed out that

In North America and Europe over 50 trainers and vets have been arrested in the last two years for drugging of racehorses. Many are MAJOR trainers, most in the States have already pled guilty, and NONE were caught by drug testing. ALL WERE CAUGHT BY UNDERCOVER INVESTIGATIONS!

[Messenger]

Even the stewards want an explanation on how the leader just happened to roll up the track giving the stablemate a sprint lane at Mildura (which does not have one)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML010722#MLC01072201

[Showgrounds]

Even the stewards want an explanation on how the leader just happened to roll up the track giving the stablemate a sprint lane at Mildura (which does not have one)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML010722#MLC01072201

The driver did not appear to apply much pressure to the inside rein when the horse was drifting out, though its head action suggested it should have been hanging in. Once the stablemate got past it then dropped back to the pegs. Past the post it ran well inside of the pegs. The betting records on this race should make interesting reading, it was a very strange race.

[Messenger]

Gotta Smudge improved his best MR by 3.9 secs at Hamilton today going 1.52.4 winning by 17m after being wide then in the death

On one hand you could say he was due to improve as his best ever MR was at only his 2nd start 2½ yrs ago and his fastest non winning MR would have been 1.55.5 at Terang 1½ yrs ago. The change of driver would certainly have helped although he was asked to do it VERY tough today as opposed to having been driven conservatively at his last few
That is the other hand - his last 3 aren't bad runs and his last time at Hamilton he was definitely held up But they do not suggest a Tough 1.52.4

???

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=HM181222#HMC18122201

[Messenger]

I cannot wait to see the replay for Azterian at Warragul today (if they ever go up!)
According to the Stewards column, he sat in the death before going on to win by 31m in 1.54.9
That is only 0.1 secs outside the Tk Rec and his best time ever in a $4,500 race

While you're waiting for the replay to go up - have a look at his previous start from 9 days earlier
LAST and could not go a yard really

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=CR121222#CRC12122201

Please explain (not even a QIP from the stewards)

[Messenger]

30 hrs after it was run R1 Warragul still not up (others are, so strange)
You can see it on the TAB of course
I had a look at 2 starts back too, the horse that ran 1.54.9 yesterday bears no resemblance

[Messenger]

If you do not have a TAB account to view this race, you can see it on harnessweb by doing a race/meeting search for Warragul 21/12
Compare this win with his previous performances
No questions asked in the Stewards Report

[Messenger]

Have a look at Azterian's 2 runs since nearly breaking the Warragul Tk Rec

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI050123#KIC05012301

Drops off after a dream run on the leaders back (not the Warragul horse here)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX200123#MXC20012304

Drops out after having to do nothing in the 1x2

That Warragul win was on the nose!