The Punt

[Messenger]

Oh the vagaries of the punt
R5 at Maryborough today

Somebody(s) must have plonked a bit on the winner No Win No Worries at the jump because he ended up tote favourite and only paid $2.60 so they made $1.60 for every dollar bet. He opened the day at that fixed but quickly blew to $4 fixed where he stayed so they could have made nearly twice as much money - $3 for every dollar bet, that is a big diff

The fixed favourite Priddy Sublime did the opposite he opened the day at $5 fixed but quickly came into $2.20 where he stayed. It was only a 7 horse race so only 2 place divvies but although he was beaten into 2nd you could have got $3 the place on the tote
(Of course there was only $2.5k in the place pool)

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MH290921#MHC29092105

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2021-09-29/MARYBOROUGH/MYB/H/5/Win

[Messenger]

Don't you hate it when you go to the trouble of putting a horse in your blackbook, don't follow through on it and they pay $31 (fixed)

[Messenger]

It won so I am no doubt the fool but how could Kilmore R1 winner Rainbowsnpearls start $1.30

She had had 7 starts before this 4yo+ Maiden pace
She was ODM and coming out of 11
She was $1.70 beaten favourite from 3 at her last start
Rob Auber only picked it for 3rd and whoever did the odds assessed her at $6

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI111121#KIC11112104

[Messenger]

The last at Melton tonight
When the market opened
Techys Angel was $1.75 - she started $8 (2.9m second)
Maajida was $5.50 - started $1.85 and won

[aussiebreno]

Opening prices were ridiculous. 7 starts ago Maajida was fairly $2.20 when drawn #13 at Wagga and Techys drew to lead. Techy did win on that occassion but with Maajida drawn the inside she was quite clearly deserved fave.

[Messenger]

We non punters don't really know what is going on if we only look at the TAB
R7 Bathurst last night NSW TAB held <$5k win and <$15k all forms
And yet I read that Betfair held $119k of matched bets on the race

[aussiebreno]

We non punters don't really know what is going on if we only look at the TAB
R7 Bathurst last night NSW TAB held <$5k win and <$15k all forms
And yet I read that Betfair held $119k of matched bets on the race

Probably robots though

[Messenger]

Brendan, you will have to explain for me and the other uneducated occasional punters
(I haven't ever been on Betfair, much less punted there)

[Messenger]

If you are ever tempted to bet on the dogs, watch this first

https://vimeopro.com/greyhoundswa/20211204/video/653170036

[Messenger]

I am not a punter anymore but another rule for those that are
2 good horses from the same stable owned by the same connections, who are not punters, in the same race
Don't take $1.10 about one of them, as it makes no difference to them who wins

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX111221#MXM11122109

[Messenger]

Next punting rule - it is not all about the horse
Craig Rail made Trent From Punchy his Best Bet at Mildura tonight
It drew the 2nd line
Ash Warton has had a total of 64 drives for 3 wins
You wanted to be getting better than $2 - $2.50

[Showgrounds]

Certainly kept the stewards busy but bounced back to win the 10th. A bigger question is why are we taking tips from a bloke that lives in Dunedin? Certainly not for his local knowledge.

[Messenger]

How bad are these Fixed Place Odds offered for R1 tonight

[Messenger]

Was there a special pool for the Ballarat Main Quaddie tonight or did the Early Quaddie jackpot (of $25k) carry into it and see the pros go mad for the pool was over $223k !!!

[Messenger]

Another way to get beat - we will call it the Back In Twenty

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC290122#PCM29012203

[Messenger]

I know that Spot On's NZ record looked pretty good for his Aussie debut at Maryborough today but he had not won for a year, had drawn the inside of the back row and had a couple of in form horses to beat
Nevertheless he started $1.06 fav and he got the money after finding the lead quite easily but lost it entering the straight - backers would have been a wreck

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MH030222#MHC03022211

[Messenger]

Do punters look at who is driving the favourite
A young driver who hasn't even had 2 dozen drives has been on a couple at Melton tonight but has not been able to do any better than to get them stuck on the fence

[Messenger]

Melton mid week proved to be the place for value today
Only 1 out 11 favourites got up

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX240222

It definitely was not Chris Alford's day, he had what you would consider an excellent book of drives but ended up with 0/10

[Messenger]

With the pros' money going on super late nowadays the fact that Chinese Whisper went roughly in the score up several seconds before release, this was undoubtedly why the fav who had touched $1.10 and was $1.22 when they began scoring up, drifted all the way out to $1.65

There could not have been more media about this horse than there was this week but alas the score up was the last we saw of the fav as he was tailed out. This type of debacle is why some people have never followed the trotters seriously


http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX120322#MXM12032207

[Messenger]

I know we are talking very small pools and a very short fav but look at the crazy fluctuations for 2nd fav 4. Captains Knock in the first heat for 2yo C&G at Menangle tonight

15min before the race he is about his right price at $3, then 1 min before they are due to jump he is $11.30 but when they jump 1 min late, he is $4.50

[Messenger]

4yo mare Cocorocks was a 20 start Maiden when she was transferred to the Stewart stable, two 3rds were her claim to fame
AND YET at her first start for them she was $1.12 Fixed - $1.30 Tote. She ran 2nd - she led so no excuses really
Tonight (one week later) she was $1.22 Fixed - $1.10 Tote. She won

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA260522#BAC26052205

What does it say about the Ainsworths, Eeles and McNaulty's (previous trainers) or simply form?

[Showgrounds]

With a nod to PP's diligent and proven formula there was the magical 22 days between runs between trainers for its first-up second (at $1.55 and $41 its previous start).

And no pre-race swab.

I don't think the former trainers are complete mugs. All of us are.

[Messenger]

Icicle might be the omen bet in the next at Horsham

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=HS300522#HSC30052208

[Messenger]

It was a pretty ordinary night for favourites at Shep on Saturday night
and it seems to be continuing tonight

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP020722

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP050722#SPC05072208

[Messenger]

If Hautacam is supposed to be an above average trotter then I feel confident that Majestic Em and Wills Magic can win a race

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=AR060722#ARC06072209

[Messenger]

6yo Teddy Runkle had 1 of 32 before today before going around at $1.65 fav ($1.40 tote) at Hamilton today
Yes he won but he had a young driver on him who showed no idea of pace in R1 so those odds must seem ridiculous to those who do not know our game
It was a nice drive

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=HM130722#HMC13072206

[Messenger]

If you get the Early Quaddie at Geelong tonight for <$50, I imagine you will have done very well.
3 of the legs are trots, 2 of which are maidens (3 Quaddie legs are actually maidens) and the easiest leg might be the last which is a 2yo trot of 6 first starters :eek:

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE220722

[Messenger]

It was interesting to note that in the last leg of 6 novice trotters, Chris Lang and dare I say the stable were only interested in looking after their horse and thinking long term, which did not mean sitting in the death for her first start.
You will see that Chris was looking for the spot 3 back the pegs (not where you expect an odds on fav in a 6 horse race) but the other horse kicked up

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE220722#GEC22072210

The same could be said for second start 2yo pacer Joe Got Rolled $1.22 fav in R1 at Mildura
Despite there being no sprint lane, they were happy for Joe to take the sit behind the leader

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML220722#MLC22072210

[Messenger]

It pays to listen to Dan, in the last minute or two leading up to R6 at Geelong he was saying that Petillante drifted from $1.55 to $2.10 fixed
It is hard to know how you would have gotten on at those odds if you fancied the B&W figures as the following snip was taken 5min after advertised start time (post race)

I will show the post race crap that the TAB put up in the next post as I can only attach one per post
This should be investigated

[Messenger]

Here is the supposed B&W figures that were on offer Fixed pre Race - I even refreshed my browser but those figures were never available pre jump

Dan is saying the drift was extraordinary - I will tell you why it happened Dan - nobody wanted to back her at $1.55 and NOBODY KNEW ABOUT THE DRIFT as the TAB never updated the fixed, she would have drifted a bit but not that much eg if punters knew she was out to $2 she would have probably been supported back into say $1.80

[Messenger]

Sob, Sob, Sob, I got $172.50 about Bettor Be The Bomb this morning :(

[aussiebreno]

Sob, Sob, Sob, I got $172.50 about Bettor Be The Bomb this morning :(

Hope you got some place money. I've semi regularly backed him the past 12 months especially the place. Nearly did this morning but a few weeks ago I was disappointed in him.

[Messenger]

I don't bet much and I would generally only bet each way if I am having more than $5 but I did think about it as he was better than $15 the place

[Messenger]

In VIC favourites have been having a fairly lean trot for the last week

[Messenger]

Lotakevi has only won 10 of 153 starts but if you had put one dollar on him every start,
your $153 would now be $289
A $10 punter would be $1,360 in profit

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?horseId=776418

Oh Kevi

[Messenger]

Sob Sob I thought Hayden Bromac was great value compared to Mirakuru but the support for the stablemate put me off

[Messenger]

Surprising to see the very well bred 3yo Our Ultimate Layla pay $51 on debut

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=HM110822#HMC11082206

[Messenger]

I am not sure who did the prices accompanying the fields for Stawell today but they were a long way off the mark
The average favourites price shown was about $3 and did not include any Odds On pops but 5/6 races had one
The favs today started
$1.75, $2.30, $1.30, $1.95, $1.60, $1.80

[Messenger]

Gamble responsibly’ message is a cop-out

Food for thought. I have chosen the following link as although this was an Age article, I feel more confident that this link will get more people through to the article

https://www.onenewspage.com/n/Australia/1zodldcczc/Gamble-responsibly-message-is-cop-out.htm

[Messenger]

I'm hardly a punter nowadays but a poster prompted me to look at the sectionals that are generally available for Melton, Ballarat, ?, ...

You find them under

https://www.thetrots.com.au/racing/sectionals/

Which can be found under the Racing tab

They make interesting reading. I especially find the Distance Travelled fantastic

Here is a snippet

[Messenger]

For Saturday' Vic Cup meeting of 11 high quality races
the Stewart stable has 5 odds on favourites and 2 favourites around 6/4

If they can win 7 races on such a premier card, then the other trainers should consider easier pickings against Ben Yole down in Tassie

[Messenger]

I'm hardly a punter nowadays but a poster prompted me to look at the sectionals that are generally available for Melton, Ballarat, ?, ...

You find them under

https://www.thetrots.com.au/racing/sectionals/

Which can be found under the Racing tab

They make interesting reading. I especially find the Distance Travelled fantastic

Here is a snippet

I know it is GPS tracking but it cannot be 100% accurate

I know Aldebaran Keepa only got out in the home straight but going from pegs to 3wide must surely require travelling an extra metre and yet the Sectionals show her as 0m for distance travelled

[Messenger]

Our code is so different. Rob Auber just referring to the $1.20 fav being beaten in R2 as a mini boilover In the gallops it would be considered shocking.
Sometimes I wonder whether it is just a couple of dozen big pro punters v the betting agencies that is the bulk of our turnover (and the very slim thread we hang by)

[Showgrounds]

Our code is so different. Rob Auber just referring to the $1.20 fav being beaten in R2 as a mini boilover In the gallops it would be considered shocking.
Sometimes I wonder whether it is just a couple of dozen big pro punters v the betting agencies that is the bulk of our turnover (and the very slim thread we hang by)

Well it isn't you or me.

[Messenger]

How bad are the TABs fixed place odds
eg R3 Melton semi tonight, we have a couple of potential champions in the race so we have several horses at $151
BUT the longest place odds are $11 - for a $151 pop the place offering should be more than twice that

[Messenger]

If you were smart enough to work out who would lead at Cranbourne tonight - you could have landed 6 winners at the assorted prices that follow

$1.80 $1.95 $71 $4 $61 $6

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=CR131122

[Messenger]

Checking out the Inter market, I noticed a Eureka market! Probably been there for yonks BUT it is still 10 months away!
Does anybody want to give the TAB their hard earned for the best part of a year to snap up
$3 Leap To Fame
$4 Captain Ravishing

We are a sick country, our population is <0.5% of the world and yet we have 20% of the world's poker machines

[aussiebreno]

Opened a few months ago and Catch A Wave was fave at $7 from memory.

[Messenger]

3 Stewart Odds On pops beaten tonight BUT 2 of them were beaten by stablemates

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX181122#MXM18112211

[Messenger]

I really believe there is just a handful of pro punters that account for half our turnover

And that is a worry in my book

In R1 the first four pool was about $9,000 and most of it jackpotted
So what happens in the next
R2 the first four pool was about $48,000
The next R3 the first four pool was back to about $7,000

That is not the little punters piling in

[Messenger]

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/tab-punter-has-one-big-crack-at-alchin-runner-in-vicbred-final/

What is with there being so many $900 bets on this list?
Is it a limit that the TAB have imposed on some punter?

[Messenger]

I would be amazed if trots races hold anywhere near the pacing races
And yet our industry that relies on the punting dollar is tying half its future to trotters
I am not really a punter and have not had a bet yet tonight but it has confirmed my belief in not betting on trotters

A punter could easily have backed Paris Jamilla, Hide And Seek and Courmayeur in the first 3 races tonight and NOT got a run for their money
The powers that be must see this as a problem/bad look
And spare a thought for Stingofawasp connections who did not get a run through no fault of their own.
If Courmayeur gallops in the score up - we have a false start
Gallops at release point - tough luck for the horse trailing
Maybe we need to consider rethinking when a horse can be declared a non-runner

[aussiebreno]

I would be amazed if trots races hold anywhere near the pacing races
And yet our industry that relies on the punting dollar is tying half its future to trotters
I am not really a punter and have not had a bet yet tonight but it has confirmed my belief in not betting on trotters

A punter could easily have backed Paris Jamilla, Hide And Seek and Courmayeur in the first 3 races tonight and NOT got a run for their money
The powers that be must see this as a problem/bad look
And spare a thought for Stingofawasp connections who did not get a run through no fault of their own.
If Courmayeur gallops in the score up - we have a false start
Gallops at release point - tough luck for the horse trailing
Maybe we need to consider rethinking when a horse can be declared a non-runner

Not only less money on the races itself, but then hinders the pacing ability to get turnover because the mugs cant differentiate between trotting and pacing. Get rid of them. Broken Hill today whet my appetite more.

[Messenger]

Even though 7 of 12 favourites got up, it was a tough night at the office for the experts

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/200-game-plans-bon-brittany-dan-and-shannon-have-their-say/

JB easily the best - only losing $5
Brittany and Dan got back nothing
Shannon got back $69 so only lost $131

[Mighty Atom]

Even though 7 of 12 favourites got up, it was a tough night at the office for the experts

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/200-game-plans-bon-brittany-dan-and-shannon-have-their-say/

JB easily the best - only losing $5
Brittany and Dan got back nothing
Shannon got back $69 so only lost $131

They can't wait to air their selections mug punters might listen the more informed give them a miss. This applies to all forms of racing.

[Messenger]

Revelstoke won her heat at $1.33 then wins the Final at $7 ($8.60 tote) - in hindsight it looks a bit silly

[Messenger]

About 4hrs ago PP wrote that Leap To Fame is a scratching from the Chariots
And that if you fancy Catch A Wave you should get on as he won't be $14 but rather $4
PP also thinks there could be a problem with Captain Ravishing (odds on fav) and says Akuta is not coming

I have been watching the TAB market and LTF is still in at $4 and Catch A Wave has shortened a little to $12

Just reporting this in the event that anybody is keen on the Wave - we will wait and see if PP's info is right

[Showgrounds]

None of the All Stars horses are coming to Australia, as previously reported. So, no Akuta.

[Bonnie]

Catch A Wave is double nominated this week; a 20K race at Ballarat and The Mercury heats at Melton on Friday night. It will be interesting to see where he goes. Hurricane Harley is also amongst the nominations for the Mercury. Looking forward to seeing him back on the track.

[Messenger]

I would be amazed if trots races hold anywhere near the pacing races
And yet our industry that relies on the punting dollar is tying half its future to trotters
I am not really a punter and have not had a bet yet tonight but it has confirmed my belief in not betting on trotters
[/B]

I wonder whether there really is a belief that the trotter is good for our turnover
Have a look at the programming for Kilmore on Thursday - look at where they place the trots

If there is no chance of breaking into the French market again, I am not sure what we are doing
Brendan had a good point in post 53 - that they harm pacing too for the average punter does not understand the different gaits and once bitten by a 'galloper' can reject our code altogether

[Messenger]

Catch A Wave is double nominated this week; a 20K race at Ballarat and The Mercury heats at Melton on Friday night. It will be interesting to see where he goes. Hurricane Harley is also amongst the nominations for the Mercury. Looking forward to seeing him back on the track.

He is in the Mercury heat

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX200123#MXC20012301

[Messenger]

The TAB have a very different definition for 'coming soon' to myself
This is the message that is still up for tomorrow night's Melton meet
But what with the program including $4,500 races, I suppose it hardly warrants a futures market

[Messenger]

It is now just 21 hours until the first at Melton and that market is 'still coming'

[Messenger]

Markets are up and Fire Fox has been well supported to give Catch A Wave a run for his money in the Mercury

[Messenger]

R3 at Melton tonight should have been called 'The Dynamic Print Concession Drivers Pace"
It is important to keep punters full informed

[Messenger]

A PP story about the rebates received by big punters/syndicates led me to this old article about Zeljko Ranogajec

I hope it is not behind the Age/SyndeyMorningHerald paywall

https://www.smh.com.au/national/meet-the-joker-the-australian-who-is-the-biggest-gambler-in-the-world-20180515-p4zfhi.html

It is essential reading for punters if they want to know who they are competing with - and Rebates is the key

[Messenger]

Retrospective I know but the mystery of the punt never ceases to amaze this occasional punter (and don't get me started on how they are making tennis viewing a gambling experience - luckily I am not a fan but oh Australia is going down the gurgler!)

In R5 at St Arnaud today there was a little carnage but I think Presidentialchange was going to hang on anyway
How was this winner of a 12 races, including 2 of his last 3, $61 in this field

Watch the actions of Lochie Cook on the favourite, he leaves little doubt how he felt about the incident
The favourite had only won 2 race in its life

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SA230123#SAC23012303

[Messenger]

I had a tipple on a longshot at Stawell today and even though I left it until the last minute and used the TAB Multiplier - getting $44 instead of $33

The reason I waited until the last minute is that the same horses odds nearly tripled after I backed it last time and they did double today too

But straight after I bet and with < a minute to go, the odds start climbing
So I think why not have another $10 on it BUT as quick as I tick the box the odds keep climbing 51, 61, 71, 81
and of course starting again each time, it closes on me - saved $10 as no longshots won at Stawell today
But it sure is hard for a little tippler to get best odds

ps It was only $37 on the tote (because of its cute name?)

[Messenger]

I am watching the 'trot' races at Maryborough today as after the 2yo pace for R1 there is four trots in a row (and I am housebound)
R2 R3 R4 - the favourites have galloped in All of them
In R4 the fav was 10yo and having his 192nd start and he still gallops!

Are trots really betting commodities?

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=QP300123

[Messenger]

Big Southern Star night and too many trots races have a runner blow the start (often favoured) - eventually it has to lose us patrons

[Messenger]

While Adam Hamilton has said the pre-Hunter night is not working for the GSStar, PP has suggested having limited betting time when the Final field is only confirmed about 2hrs beforehand is the problem
Heat 1 had $12k in the Win pool, Heat 2 had $15k while the Final had $14k. This is Vic tote only of course and although the Final matched the heats, none of them would seem to justify the prizemoney. The Quaddie that included no GSS races held an impressive $129k

The Hunter Cup held $43k for the Win, $26k Tri and $26k F4 with a massive $321k the Quaddie
Interesting that the 2nd biggest win pool was R3 with $24k and Captain Ravishing $1.04

Corporates of course hold more (but we do not earn as much from them)

[Messenger]

Rob Auber is a pretty good form assessor and if the market was logical, his assessments for Stawell today would suggest that we should only have one favourite under $3 ($2.40 R7). We of course know that the market is rarely logical and we will probably have a couple in the red

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SW080223

[Messenger]

Craig Rail assesses Wheresthestorm $1.40 favourite in R1 at Warragul tomorrow

At its last start on Jan 26 it was last beaten 242m

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=WR130223#WRC13022307

[Messenger]

The Australian tote is dying, but does anybody care?

https://asianracingreport.com/the-australian-tote-is-dying-but-does-anybody-care/

A Good read

[Messenger]

Toohard just alerted me to the fact that Flemington had Hong Kong betting into the TAB pools today

Most noticeable was the $1million + in every races Quinella pool

[Messenger]

Craig Rail assesses Wheresthestorm $1.40 favourite in R1 at Warragul tomorrow

At its last start on Jan 26 it was last beaten 242m

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=WR130223#WRC13022307

Tonight makes 2 failures in a row for Wheresthestorm

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=CR210223#CRC21022307

[Messenger]

Rob Auber's very green 2yo $1.75 in the 2&3yo combined in 5 minutes.
No thanks
Maybe the 3yo Heavensville or the likely 2yo Ferrigno

[Messenger]

Nothing to worry about for those taking odds on as he raced like a pro

[Messenger]

How often do you see it - a first starter sent out favourite but does not seem to know much about this racing caper
2nd start (in this case a month later) starts $19 tote (I don't think that $51 fixed is right) and wins

My Bucks Night R1 Maryborough 2yo today overcomes 4 from the Tubbs stable

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MH270223#MHC27022307

[aussiebreno]

https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/racing/menangle/future/071ccfe0-9f75-4faf-b736-46e96f76a530

Do you think Encipher is a $26 or a $34 chance? Ladbrokes having a go eachway.

[Messenger]

She should be 4th in the betting

[Messenger]

If only Craig Rail was a bookie, he assessed Imperials Reason (R6 Melton) at $8
Paid $3

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=QP300123#QPC30012301

[Messenger]

Rob Auber went a little exotic with his suggested bets for the second half of the card at Yarra Valley today

R5 $3 to get the $3.50 Quinella
R6 $6 to get the $17.80 Quinella
R7 $60 but missed the $122 Tri
R8 $10 to get the $6.70 Quinella
R10 $3 to get the $3.50 Quinella

If you took $30 worth in each race you would have finished about $30 in front

https://www.harness.org.au/punting/punters-corner/form-analysis/?keyNum=374002

[Messenger]

Charlton
R1 $1.45 fav wins by a nose
R2 $1.15 fav wins by a half head

It has to take a toll on the pros

[Messenger]

I find it hard to believe that our TAB took a $6,000 bet at $20.60 = $123,600 to $6,000 on a 11.44am Thursday race at Charlton (He must be a big loser with them)

We are talking about a superbly bred first starter drawn the pole in a 4 horse race against non-winners who collectively had had 33 starts for 0 wins

20/1 :confused:

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/ouch-photo-finish-defeat-costs-tab-punter-huge-collect/

We are talking about number 1 below

[aussiebreno]

$2.60 instead of $20.60 I am tipping

[Messenger]

I really think at the top of the Odds column, we should be making it clear that these are the tipsters rating - not likely odds

eg JB's assessment of Dangerous in R7

[Messenger]

https://iview.abc.net.au/show/four-corners

This week Four Corners is all about Australia's out of control punt

We are the world's biggest losers.
Maybe they should add: the world's biggest idiots - I mean how can so many fall for the hype that it is more fun watching if you lose on it too

I have an ever so occasional bet, no doubt because I think the odds are in my favour - let's face it, having a superannuation fund is a bet
But as for falling for the nonsense of having a multi on everything I watch or hear about - I have a matured brain and we need to protect those who do not yet

[Messenger]

The totes can be misleading
Correct me if I am wrong (for I am only a tiddler)
After the longshots got up in R6 the tote says the First Four paid $24,555 (with a $10,667 Jackpot)
But the pools says there was only $13,906 on the First Four

So nobody actually won $4k

[aussiebreno]

The totes can be misleading
Correct me if I am wrong (for I am only a tiddler)
After the longshots got up in R6 the tote says the First Four paid $24,555 (with a $10,667 Jackpot)
But the pools says there was only $13,906 on the First Four

So nobody actually won $4k

Somebody/combo of people only had the F4 for a %. I think

[Messenger]

Yes, I know that Brendan and what I am saying is that - at a glance it appears as though the First Four paid $24,555. I know it sort of did BUT it didn't - you know what I mean LOL

[Messenger]

I reckon R1 at Bendigo was a classic example of the pros money not going on until the last 10 secs
The fav 2yo first starter Sir Jimmy had until then been backed in to around $1.35 but as the mobile got moving he was slow to score up, it was obvious that he was not going to get up into his position. He blew out to $1.80 while the 2nd and 3rd favourites shortened

Of course one cannot be 100% certain that he wasn't going to ease anyway
But I wouldn't mind betting :) it was more the pros seeing the opportunity to jump on the other two

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN120723#BNC12072307

[Messenger]

Sometimes you are backing a driver more so than the horse
Take R7 at Maryborough today
3yo Final Collect is the best horse in the race and Odds On fav
But he has drawn inside the back row and has young Leilani Justice on him (for the claim to get into the race)
But but but he has one of the other chances No Win No Worries driven by James Herbertson drawn right next to him
James was never going to let him/her off the fence

Watch it on the TAB or wait until tomorrow as Internet Black Hole Maryborough does not have replays go up until tomorrow
(I reckon the gallops would have had this internet problem fixed years ago if it was their track)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MH310723#MHC31072301

[Messenger]

Sometimes I think that the Stewart Stable's super shorties get beaten often enough that, someone smarter than me, could capitalize when it happens

This one would have set you up for a lot of misses ($81)
Tonight we are talking 2yo maidens, one gets written off after one start while the other starts $1.45

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI130823#KIC13082306

(It is late at night and I am probably dreaming)

[Messenger]

You know the best track to bet on - Ararat

You can always bet on the weather being awful when they have a meeting

[Messenger]

How does an ODS trotter go around at $1.20 in an Stand Start

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA180823#BAC18082307

[aussiebreno]

How does a trotter go around


Agree with above :p

[Messenger]

.... at $1.20

Just about any trotter is going to strike trouble 1 in 10 so the return is ludicrous

[Messenger]

R1 Mildura tonight
The Leading Mildura trainer + The Leading Mildura driver = $41 winner

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML010923#MLC01092312

R5 Mildura tonight
The Leading Mildura trainer + The Leading Mildura driver = $23 winner

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML010923#MLC01092311

and again R9 at $7

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML010923#MLC01092307

[Messenger]

At Ballarat tonight a

$1.18

$1.50

$1.55

favourite ALL LOST

can you imagine this happening at the gallops - it would be groundbreaking

Three of the other four races were won by favourites at the odds of $3.40 $1.75 $3.00

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA041023

[Messenger]

Gottahaveahobbie last winner over the same distance at the track just a week ago gets up and pays $101 fixed

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI121023

My family would say the name is a must have omen bet for me

[Messenger]

From Toohard

https://paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/technical-issues-and-potential-fraud-involved-in-large-mystery-wagers/

So how much do you think the hackers got away with?
They closed it down but not until after some dividends were declared and likely paid out to dodgy bank accounts which would already have been cleaned out before the dividends were withdrawn

[Toohard]

From Toohard

https://paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/technical-issues-and-potential-fraud-involved-in-large-mystery-wagers/

So how much do you think the hackers got away with?
They closed it down but not until after some dividends were declared and likely paid out to dodgy bank accounts which would already have been cleaned out before the dividends were withdrawn

I don't think we'll ever know Kev. Certainly won't be told the truth about it anyway as appears to have cost betting company lots of $ due to slack procedures. So we'll be spun the normal BS

#LongMayWePlay

[Messenger]

If only we could bet retrospectively LOL
R5 tonight at Ballarat
Wingate Guy has won 17 races from 136 starts (twice in his last 5) Odds $23
Quiet Storm has won 2 races from 14 starts (once in his last 11) Odds $1.95

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA071223#BAC07122302

[Messenger]

That is what you call the market getting it right

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE310124#GEC31012403

[Messenger]

Another way to lose your money.
The favourite All Star Magician in R8 at Newcastle yesterday, was most unlucky for if you look closely when he gallops and loses the lead down the back - he was jumping a marker peg that was lying on the track
He did incredibly well to recover so quickly and was only beaten a HFNK

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=NR190224#NRC19022412

[trish]

Another way to lose your money.
The favourite All Star Magician in R8 at Newcastle yesterday, was most unlucky for if you look closely when he gallops and loses the lead down the back - he was jumping a marker peg that was lying on the track
He did incredibly well to recover so quickly and was only beaten a HFNK

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=NR190224#NRC19022412


PP is 100% correct on this story . Why a lap after it was dislodged was it not picked up before the field came around again. Goodnees me.
Stewards report......it jumped an object. Really. That could have been a disaster.

[Messenger]

and like the Terang Trotters Cup and Aaron Dunn's drive on Dee Roe - stories that came from here! Only fair as I like to use his stuff, I do however always acknowledge when I have do so :D

[Messenger]

Those that backed Gracias into $1.55 last night would have to be thanking Kerryn for her calm drive after he made it very hard for himself

Thanks to the TAB for always having replays available

[Messenger]

Northview Hustler won at Albion Park in 1.53.9 over 2138m on April 13 and paid $3.60
2 starts later
Northview Hustler wins at Albion Park in 1.54.0 over 2138m on May 4 and pays $126

Go figure

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=AP040524#APC04052401

[Messenger]

Barriers are SO important
These three winners at Melton only achieved their 2nd win in 2yrs but were all well under $10
Barrier 1 does it for Perfect Stride $5
Barrier 8 does it for Radius $8
Barrier 1 does it for Dhaulagirl $5
All on the fence, all with a cozy sit

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX110524

[Messenger]

An interesting story on PP this morning
He points out that Bets placed (not names) are shown on Ladbrokes in real time
He shows that they took a bet of $300,000 at $1.28 on Destiny Stride

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=NR310524#NRC31052411

It reminded me of the big one at Melton on Saturday night where Blake once again copped a bit of pressure but did run along on the fav

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX250524#MXM25052406

[Messenger]

Having previously been required to stand to lose $1000 on Victorian metropolitan meetings win bets and $500 on Victorian country meetings win bets, the policy has been beefed up to include further requirements for wagering service providers.

They are:

$2000 win and $800 place minimum bet limits for all Group 1 races
$1000 win and $400 place minimum bet limits for metropolitan races
$500 wins and $200 place minimum bet limits for non-metropolitan races

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/a-win-for-punters-as-hrv-minimum-bet-liability-policy-expanded/

I am not seeing any change here other than Gp1's Am I missing something?

[Messenger]

No trots today (can't understand why)
So watching Saturday replays
I also cannot understand how Ubetcha Tigerpie wins at $10 in 1.52.4
when he couldn't win at $1.55 in 1.55.1
I know they are not machines but other than that maybe he is simply tough and he cannot go faster than 26.8 for Q4 so faster is better for him
Lucky Final Collect did not get to the death or he may have caused trouble again (this time he was $34) or maybe not letting him get there was part of the plan (although that seemed to be more Terry's doing)

The win

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX060724#MXM06072402

The loss a fortnight before

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX150624#MXM15062410

[Messenger]

Very Pretty is an outstanding filly but even outstanding fillies get beat when they race in open company
I contemplated this this afternoon but not really being a punter just noted who her dangers would be
Exotic Bushranger ran exactly the same time he rated when winning at Melton a fortnight ago at $2.50
Tonight he paid $47

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX200724#MXM20072403

[Messenger]

For those who take Odds On, following Emma Stewart today could have wiped you out
She began OK with her first two at Mildura winning at $1.25 and $1.20
But her next two LOST at $1.40 and $1.95

Then at Melton tonight all three runners LOST at $1.30, $1.14 and $1.18

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML160824

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX160824

This is not good for the code. Such ridiculously short odds rarely happen at the gallops - much less lose!

EDIT: She just had a fourth runner at Melton and it won at $1.12

[Messenger]

A $1.06 favourite got beaten at Mildura today - it only happens at the trots
(in a maiden and only having his 2nd start)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML300824#MLC30082409

[Messenger]

This could just as easily have gone in the Drivers thread
Congratulations to Ryan Sanderson for driving 5 winners at Mildura tonight

I have put it in the 'Punt' thread due to how profitable it would have been to follow him

His winners started $2.60, $5, $7, $23 and $8.50
His other 5 drives also realized 3 placings

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ML041024

[Messenger]

A $1.70 fav, a $1.75 fav and a $2.20 fav are beaten at Caulfield today and The Age is writing stories

Caulfield track under fire ahead of Cup as favourites go under

We accept odds on faves being beaten every day of the week in harness racing - they don't at the gallops

[Messenger]

If you think you are seeing things when looking at the results of R9 last night - You Are!
MM was $1.90 fav

[Messenger]

Apart from one at $2.20 in R2 the HRV odds assessor for today's fields at Charlton has every other horse at the meeting at $3 or better.
It will be interesting to see how it pans out

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=CH181124

[Messenger]

Well the fields assessor was far too generous
We had 5 Odds On Favourites and the longest favourite was $2.60

[Messenger]

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/clever-herbertson-steer-helps-tab-punter-land-the-cash/

Risking $7,000 to win $280
That has to be money laundering!

[Messenger]

I'm sorry Tim but unless you know the odds and that it is massive overs.
I cannot see how you can recommend a horse for a place bet
When you select it for 4th

[Messenger]

We knew it was going to happen LOL
Tim should have suggested the Win
a $20 winner!

All Michael Stanley had to do was stay tight on the pegs but he blew it

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA180125#BAM18012506

[Messenger]

Emma Stewart sensibly does not race her horses in $4k races, otherwise she may have been a chance to train the card at Geelong today

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE210225

[Messenger]

We have been talking about the long odds-on pops in the 2yo's at Bathurst
Yesterday we had 10 Chalice and Bracelet heats for the 3yo's
8 odds-on favs (all but one of them long odds on) plus a $2 and a $2.50
The 7 under $1.50 all won

Surprising to see Emma Stewart with only one colt and one filly going around

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BH240325#BHC24032502

[Messenger]

The Quaddie at Geelong seemed to pay overs last night but it shows you what even fields can do
No favourites got up but none of the faves were in the red
And none of the winners paid over $5.50
The Quaddie paid $3,145

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE160525