Summer Of Glory Carnival 2022

[Messenger]

It is only 5 weeks away today! (and then just another 4wks till the MM)
Has VIC got a horse to compete with the NSW horses?

[Messenger]

Fields are up for Saturday

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX290122

I am not a punter much less a taker of Odds On but how can any of the opposition in the Gp2 Casey Classic be expected to beat Expensive Ego (especially with the Ballarat Cup run under his belt)
$1.35 almost seems generous to me

The Gp1 Caduceus 3yo Classic is a cracking field but Heza Son Of Agun is a very special horse

[Messenger]

Here are the noms for the Hunter Cup and Great Southern Star

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/nominations-for-hunter-cup-great-southern-star-revealed/

[Messenger]

The TV panel are pointing out that if the stable were 100% happy with Expensive Ego's run last week/where he is at, he would not be running tonight - fair warning I suppose
I can't help but think that even a 90% Ego has the measure of these despite the draw - how many of them have won a Group race?

[Messenger]

I did my research and the answer is one Group win - Triple Eight but it was a Gp1

[Messenger]

Well there you go - it looks like he will lose it on protest (again)

[Messenger]

It is a tough game, the animal is pretty much in charge, he has no fence to follow, we are talking about coming out a foot, is there some onus on the outside horse not to race that close - can you expect a horse to go Perfectly straight?

[Messenger]

As impressive as Majestuoso was winning the Dullard Cup in 1.57.1
Have a look at Majestic Man winning last year's in the Tk Rec of 1.55.4
(Majestuoso ran 3rd in the race and would have run closer but broke under pressure)

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX300121#MXM30012108

[Showgrounds]

It is a tough game, the animal is pretty much in charge, he has no fence to follow, we are talking about coming out a foot, is there some onus on the outside horse not to race that close - can you expect a horse to go Perfectly straight?

A quick check reveals that Chris Alford has driven 7,608 winners. I have noticed he's has had two hands and two reins in all of those wins and has displayed great ability to steer horses in a straight line, moreso since current whip rules forbid drivers from having both reins in one hand while whipping their horse with their free hand.

Yes, 888 did hang in upon entering but Greg Sugars immediately reacted and straightened his horse. Halfway down the straight as Triple Eight was closing Expensive Ego was being hard driven and drifted up the track. Sugars had to check his horse, not much but enough to cost it the half-head margin and a little more. Alford never stopped driving his horse but managed to straighten the leader.

No contact needed to be made for the protest to be successful, Sugars preventative checking of his horse being sufficient evidence. In many ways this protest was similar to the ID Final with quick actions by the drivers of the second past-the-post horses preventing contact. No doubt the connections of Expensive Ego will be peeved losing not one but two feature races on protest. Perhaps the only instruction they should give its drivers is "Make sure you keep him going straight".

The stewards made the right decision. Now, how about biting the bullet and cracking down on horses and drivers taking short cuts inside the marker pegs before the sprint lane.
Like Max Delight did without punishment in the Victoria Cup when driven by, ahem, somebody who has driven 7,608 winners.

[Messenger]

Fair points Trevor but there are many, many races where a horse does not go straight in the home straight.
Most of which do not result in protests because there is no one close enough to be checked, or the drifter did not win/place, or the winning/place margin was too great, or the closing horse drifted too
A different driver this time to the Inter. I found that driver's steer on Lochinvar Art in the Shep Cup interesting, in that race, I wondered whether his drift was intentional or not

[Showgrounds]

I agree largely with what you are saying Kev. My point is that if a protest is lodged too often stewards pontificate whether there was enough interference to compensate for the margin between horses. They place too much emphasis on this instead of focussing on whether interference actually occurred and, if so, how severely it affected the horse's likelihood of narrowing or exceeding the margin.

Too many protests are dismissed when interference has occurred, many drivers are too timid when it comes to lodging a protest. Just apply the rules!

The ID Final differed in that Expensive Ego had already drifted up the track and interference occurred when Moran steered the horse back down the track when he saw Boncel Benjamin going for the inside run. No contact made, the severity of the check and tight margin ensured a correct protest decision.

[Messenger]

I think the Hunter Cup draw is on TrotsVision at 7

[Messenger]

The draw is a massive influence

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/king-of-swing-draws-perfect-gate-for-a-g-hunter-cup/

[Messenger]

Expensive Ego out so Supreme Dominator joins those who can only win if that 1 in 100 fall of the cards occurs - other than that there are only 5 winning chances, as you would expect, the top five in the market

[Messenger]

Like the Hunter Cup, we have the fav drawn 1 in the Ladyship Cup
I notice that there has been some market movement for the Stewart runners :
5yo Maajida (7) has blown from $6 to $9 today while 4yo Rogue Wave (4) has shortened from $31 to $12
It will be interesting to see how Rogue Wave measures up as she has been placing behind Ladies In Red

[Messenger]

Act Now has drawn 11 in the 4yo Bonanza and is $8.50
(even with the pole draw it is hard to believe Kimble is not much better than half his odds)
If Act Now had drawn the front he would be Odds On

[Messenger]

Hunter Cup will not only be on TrotsVision and Sky Active but also on racing.com

[Messenger]

An interesting piece of nostalgia on HRV site

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/the-changing-face-of-victorias-brilliant-hunter-cup/

It’s interesting to note that 100 bookmakers operated at the meeting located in six different areas around the track.

[Messenger]

I wonder how they decide which is the first heat of the Great Southern and which is the 2nd?
Recovery is important so for fairness they should have tried to minimize the time between the heat races down to 20 minutes, which has shown to be doable in the past
(I know there is the argument that Sky or some other power determine this but surely they can work with us sometimes)

[aussiebreno]

In the Blacks a Fake King of Swing galloped, had to make up 15m and then covered extra ground. Gets beaten less than a length by Amazing Dream. King of Swing clearly the better horse off that run.

In the Vic Cup King of Swing drawn carpark, comes 3 wide around the bend on a hot pace and put Amazing Dream away by the 200m. Could not be any clearer King of Swing is the better horse.

Triple 8 and Louis aren't good enough to sit outside him and apply pressure necessary to tire King out. Arty I'd have second fave but he isn't at his best, it would be a surprise to see him apply the gas but he is the horse as a King punter I am worried about getting back to his best.

Aside from Arty being back to his best I think King could do a space job tomorrow. Amazing Dream being so tight in the market is giving some good overs for the King.

[aussiebreno]

I wonder how they decide which is the first heat of the Great Southern and which is the 2nd?
Recovery is important so for fairness they should have tried to minimize the time between the heat races down to 20 minutes, which has shown to be doable in the past
(I know there is the argument that Sky or some other power determine this but surely they can work with us sometimes)

That would be fairer.

[Messenger]

Majestuoso has now just passed the ½ million and Wobelee is just a couple of thousand short

[Messenger]

The same coverage on Racing.com, TrotsVision and Sky Racing. What I have seen has been good with a fair mix of presenters. Although JB has been off the desk, my own preference might have been to see more of Gareth's interviews instead and with Dan able to provide good pre-race analysis we don't need too much JB . There has been a lot of talk, I might have tried to break it up with a couple more off the track segments, showcasing the horse while providing a break from the barrage of talk (maybe with a music background). Just a small point

[Messenger]

The Hunter Cup became a 400m race. They were afraid of Lochinvar in the death and while he was not a contender his reputation ended up being of assistance to the King

[Adaptor]

The Hunter Cup became a 400m race. They were afraid of Lochinvar in the death and while he was not a contender his reputation ended up being of assistance to the King

Nothing happened. No risks taken.

[aussiebreno]

In the Blacks a Fake King of Swing galloped, had to make up 15m and then covered extra ground. Gets beaten less than a length by Amazing Dream. King of Swing clearly the better horse off that run.

In the Vic Cup King of Swing drawn carpark, comes 3 wide around the bend on a hot pace and put Amazing Dream away by the 200m. Could not be any clearer King of Swing is the better horse.

Triple 8 and Louis aren't good enough to sit outside him and apply pressure necessary to tire King out. Arty I'd have second fave but he isn't at his best, it would be a surprise to see him apply the gas but he is the horse as a King punter I am worried about getting back to his best.

Aside from Arty being back to his best I think King could do a space job tomorrow. Amazing Dream being so tight in the market is giving some good overs for the King.
Louis went better than I thought otherwise woulda been a space job. Thanks to the Amazing Dream punters for the price on King

[Bonnie]

I watched it on Racing.com. Would have preferred to see more of Gareth’s on track pre-race driver interviews. Overall a professional presentation . Could have been less of JB ( read None! ) Too much ranting and raving and we didn’t need anymore form analysis after hearing from Dan and the panel.

[Messenger]

I am with you Anne
I got a message late last night from my bro-in-law (who introduced me to the trots when we were teenagers) that he was watching on racing.com, I have not heard back from him yet but I am very interested to know how he came to be, as he has not followed the trots for decades (and is not a gallops follower)

[Messenger]

Disappointed to find out the bro-in-law only found it when flicking through channels - I was hoping it was marketing

[Adaptor]

I watched it on Racing.com. Would have preferred to see more of Gareth’s on track pre-race driver interviews. Overall a professional presentation . Could have been less of JB ( read None! ) Too much ranting and raving and we didn’t need anymore form analysis after hearing from Dan and the panel.

Michael Felgate managed the team very well. .The recent additions to the race vision including GPS tracking numbers, lead times and quarters is really good .

[Messenger]

Totally agree Noel, all good improvements including whether the LT and Quarters are above or below average although I do wonder what sample is used for the averages - metro meets only?

[Adaptor]

Totally agree Noel, all good improvements including whether the LT and Quarters are above or below average although I do wonder what sample is used for the averages - metro meets only?

I'm sure the average lead time in track by track.

[Messenger]

Yeah, what I was thinking was that there would be a big difference between a $4,500 meeting averages and those of a Saturday night