Miracle Mile 2022

[Messenger]

Lets face it, it deserves more than just being plonked in the NSW thread

Well we have Mach Dan (Newcastle Mile) and Bettor Eclipse (Chariots) in so far and Aaron Dunn is understandably going to let Bondi Lockdown stand on his record and hope to get the last spot after his amazing Chariots 2nd, rather than contest the Sprints this Saturday

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/better-eclipse-defeats-brave-bondi-lockdown-in-chariots

[Messenger]

What a night Saturday is going to be
The Sprints, The Oaks, The Queen Elizabeth Mile, The Pink Bonnet, The derby heats, even a cracking R1

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC260222

I can't believe Maajida has not been spelled

[Messenger]

Supreme Dominator has been scratched from the Allied Express
But I am confused as the TAB has Bettor Call Me in now but the fields list
Mach Da Vinci as the 1st emerg?
Here is the link to fields and below is the TAB market

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC260222#PCM26022202

[Messenger]

What a night Saturday is going to be
The Sprints, The Oaks, The Queen Elizabeth Mile, The Pink Bonnet, The derby heats, even a cracking R1

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC260222

I can't believe Maajida has not been spelled

Maajida has been scratched

[aussiebreno]

Confirmed:
Mach Dan
Better Eclipse
Spirit of St Louis
Majestic Cruiser
King of Swing
Bundoran

TBC:
Bondi Lockdown would have to be $1.01 to get a spot. He did more in 2nd than anything else has done in defeat.

Stylish Memphis possibly racing for a spot in the Ladyship.

Expensive Ego not going as well his last few starts so if Stylish Memphis can win in 1.49 put her in. For mine the protest in the ID has also possibly cost him a spot in this final field. With that on his CV you would give him a spot. Should at least be an emergency though. Jay Ok for mine should go close to getting an emergency spot as well.

[Messenger]

I reckon Cash N Flow would beat Stylish Memphis. A great effort to win her 2nd Ladyship but is there a reason to put her in the MM again
Expensive Ego should be spelling

[aussiebreno]

I reckon Cash N Flow would beat Stylish Memphis. A great effort to win her 2nd Ladyship but is there a reason to put her in the MM again
Expensive Ego should be spelling
Yeah only went 1.52 and didn't really do it like a good thing. 3 way coin toss for the last spot between her, Ego and Jay Ok. All have reasonable claims. If Ego draws close to the fence in his heat he probably runs top 2. Can't say the same for Jay Ok as Bundoran ran straight past him. I'd give Ego the spot now they didn't run any time in the Ladyship. Of course they may not wish to go there with Stylish Memphis so next cab off the rank for an emergency spot should go to Like a Wildfire for running 3rd.

[aussiebreno]

Confirmed Bondi Lockdown is in. My initial pre-draw market. I think Louis has gone past King. Might have a bit more zip in younger legs and may not be so reliant on a draw (not to say King needs to lead).


Horse
Spirit of St Louis $3.00
King of Swing $3.50
Bondi Lockdown $5.00
Expensive Ego $9.00
Better Eclipse $21.00
Mach Dan $21.00
Bundoran $26.00
Majestic Cruiser $31.00
Stylish Memphis $34.00
Jay Ok $41.00
Like A Wildfire $101.00

I think I'll be backing Bondi though. Extra week off while these open agers have gassed themself with strong run races tonight.

[aussiebreno]

Ego has the final spot. Jay Ok and Wildfire the emergencies

[Messenger]

I know there was some merit in Ego's 4th but I cannot believe that Ego is still considered some chance of winning. He is half the odds of Better Eclipse! This pre draw market could easily look like rubbish after the draw tomorrow night

[aussiebreno]

Ego is a better horse than Better Eclipse. They wouldnt have been mentioned in the same sentence until a week ago.

[Messenger]

True but Boncel Benjamin won the Inter but like Ego he is not in that form

[Messenger]

Is this where we watch the MM draw?

https://twitter.com/CMTrackside

Lack of info/promotion out there

[Messenger]

Found the answer thanks to Adam Hamilton

Tonight’s barrier draw (live at 7.30pm on Sky Racing 2) will shape how big a challenge King Of Swing faces, most notably with how he draws compared to main dangers Bondi Lockdown and Spirit Of St Louis.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/the-forum/hamilton/hamilton-king-produces-the-performance-of-a-champion/

Another quote to contemplate

Last Saturday night showed this is King Of Swing’s Miracle Mile to lose.

He is unbeaten in 11 runs over a mile at Menangle, five of them at Group 1 level.

[aussiebreno]

Egos current form isn't as good as his past form but I think signs were there Sat night he ran much better than he did in Victoria and at Newcastle. If you compare Saturday nights run alone with his 2021 form there is barely a noticeable drop for mine. The noticeable drop was only in Vic and at Newcastle.

He was able to clear out from Triple Eight showing a big reversal on the Casey Classic when judging form on opposition.
He went over 4 seconds quicker than the Newcastle run showing a big reversal when judging form on times (even allowing for tracks and the 32qtr its an improvement).

Drawing wider than 5 in these qualifier heats has been a bit of a graveyard unless things go your way. Eg Bundoran they only got home in >55, Code Bailey they walked the first half, Field Marshall they went 1.51 the week before he produced a 1.46 so there is reasons for outliers. Ego has probably been one of the better runs of horses draw >5 in these heats over the past number of years.

Better Eclipse had almost everything go right and beat a NR85 100-1 shot by a length (Chevrons Art). Ego worked in the run and beat FFA/ID horses by lengths. Their respective prices reflect this.

I think the top 3 seeds have a bit on the rest of them but if Ego draws 1-4 I think he still a genuine winning chance. Maybe there is some loyalty and/or continuity at play but Luke stuck with him over Louis in the heat so that could be worth reading into as well.

Fitness has seemed to be an issue hence running in Casey Classic and Newcastle Mile which is different to how McCarthy usually does things so now he has that fitness I think we'll see something close to Egos best in the Mile.

[Messenger]

Thanks Brendan

[Messenger]

King Of Swing 1
Spirit Of St Louis 2


Unreal

[aussiebreno]

Thats an unreal draw for the top 2 seeds. King on first glance looks a good thing - guess only concern is if something applies pressure he doesn't really have the option to back off whereas Louis can settle in.

My market post draw would be

1 King of Swing $1.80
2 Spirit of St Louis $3.00
3 Majestic Cruiser $18.00
4 Bundoran $21.00
5 Mach Dan $51.00
6 Expensive Ego $15.00
7 Jay Ok $51.00
8 Like a Wildfire $101.00
9 Bondi Lockdown $15.00
10 Better Eclipse $51.00

[Messenger]

The TAB not quite as generous as you Brendan

[Messenger]

A better/full market

[Messenger]

The Miracle Mile has been run at Menangle since 2009. I thought I would look at the barrier stats.
But where do you find them?!
Online Results only go back to 2012 so I needed YouTube to fill in the gaps - poor quality video I'm afraid but the whip use still stands out in some. (We may as well get rid of them now as there is no way they will acceptable in the future)

It was a bit of a chore to research this as you have to do a horse search for each winner, look up their performance record to get the MM date, then look up that date in results. (Horse Performance links to the races do not include barriers)
Having gone to this trouble I thought I may as well include where they settled in the run (in brackets)

You would think that this should already be recorded somewhere (I probably should have asked if anybody knew where first LOL)

2009 Monkey King - ? (4)
2010 Smoken Up - 4 (2)
2011 Smoken Up - 1 (L)
2012 not held
2013 Baby Bling - 2 (5)
2013 Beautide - 4 (5)
2014 Christen Me - 4 (6)
2015 not held
2016 Have Faith In Me - 5 (6)
2017 Lennytheshark - 5 (2)
2018 My Field Marshal - 3 (6)
2019 Spankem - 6 (L)
2020 King Of Swing - 3 (L)
2021 King Of Swing - 5 (L)

I have always thought that the horses that settle 7 and 8 have no chance and this confirms it.
Why not have a field of 6?
Spankem is the only horse to win from wider than 5 and he did it by leading
Terror To Love (2013 MM) is the only horse drawn wider than 6 and to settle further back than 6 to place
History (albeit short) is suggesting Bondi and Eclipse have no chance

Here are the links to the race results for 2013 - 2021

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=ME280413#MEM28041301

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC301113#PCM30111301

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC291114#PCM29111401

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC280216#PCM28021601

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC250217#PCM25021701

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC240218#PCM24021801

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC020319#PCM02031905

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC070320#PCM07032001

http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC060321#PCM06032101

These are the links to the Monkey King and Smoken Up wins from their performance records (but no barrier positions)

http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/reports/race_results.cfm?race_code=XMM29110901

http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/reports/race_results.cfm?race_code=XMM27111001

http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/reports/race_results.cfm?race_code=MEM26111101

[aussiebreno]

The Miracle Mile has been run at Menangle since 2009. I thought I would look at the barrier stats.
But where do you find them?!
Online Results only go back to 2012 so I needed YouTube to fill in the gaps - poor quality video I'm afraid but the whip use still stands out in some. (We may as well get rid of them now as there is no way they will acceptable in the future)

It was a bit of a chore to research this as you have to do a horse search for each winner, look up their performance record to get the MM date, then look up that date in results. (Horse Performance links to the races do not include barriers)
Having gone to this trouble I thought I may as well include where they settled in the run (in brackets)

You would think that this should already be recorded somewhere (I probably should have asked if anybody knew where first LOL)

2009 Monkey King - ? (4)
2010 Smoken Up - 4 (2)
2011 Smoken Up - 1 (L)
2012 not held
2013 Baby Bling - 2 (5)
2013 Beautide - 4 (5)
2014 Christen Me - 4 (6)
2015 not held
2016 Have Faith In Me - 5 (6)
2017 Lennytheshark - 5 (2)
2018 My Field Marshal - 3 (6)
2019 Spankem - 6 (L)
2020 King Of Swing - 3 (L)
2021 King Of Swing - 5 (L)

I have always thought that the horses that settle 7 and 8 have no chance and this confirms it.
Why not have a field of 6?
Spankem is the only horse to win from wider than 5 and he did it by leading
History (albeit short) is suggesting Bondi and Eclipse have no chance
...........


a) which is why Ego gets in after his performance from wide draw

b) Field of 6 there isn’t as much need to get up close to the speed because the worse you will be is 2 lengths back and ready to pounce. This gives the leader an easier lead. Whereas with danger of being out the back you will see more early speed from out wide eg Balraj and Boncel last week. This early speed brings more horses into the race as the leader doesn’t have it on their own terms. I’m sure with horses like Mach Dan/Bondi Lockdown in a 6horse field with King drawn 1 they would be more inclined to go back but in an 8 horse field there may be some temptation to chance their arm – with the early speed battle tiring out King and bringing horses like Bundoran into the race.

Eg win likelihood with 6 horses might look like:
Leader: 50%
Death: 10%
Behind leader: 15%
1-1: 15%
2 Pegs: 5%
1-2: 5%

But win likelihood with 8horses might look like
Leader: 25%
Death: 10%
Behind leader: 15%
1-1: 15%
2pegs: 15%
1-2: 15%
3pegs: 3%
1-3: 2%

I think HRNSW probably have other reasons but that’s my logic for preferring 8 horses than 6. It evens out the winning chances.

[Messenger]

Good points Brendan although a) was not in a MM ;)
Bondi definitely has to have a crack at the lead or the death
I am a little worried about how tired Aaron said he was after the Chariots and I think we would all totally excuse him if he did not come up on Saturday

ps 6/1x3 is 25% on the Menangle MM race history (3/12)

[Messenger]

King Of Swing 1
Spirit Of St Louis 2


Unreal

I cannot get over what unreal luck this is for the McCarthy stable.
The King simply drawing inside Bondi means Bondi cannot lead and now when he goes to the death (he has no other option) he will likely have Louis on his back waiting if he works the King too hard (unlikely as that is). There will be some keen competition for the King's back - which could even be Louis if Ego comes down for the death

I am interested in what the speed map experts think will happen

[aussiebreno]

I'd be surprised to Louis go the fence. Think 2 is fantastic for him just to balance up and come with a run at some stage.

[Messenger]

I have sent this to HRNSW, I hope I get a positive response

The NSWHRC commissioned Bob Cain to write Harnessing A Miracle and Another 10 Miracles to preserve the history of their greatest race. Come Saturday there will have been 21 more runnings and it is well overdue for you to commission someone to continue on Bob Cain's work in order to preserve HRNSW's history. You may decide to go digital rather than in book form in which case Bob's work should be digitalized too but don’t you think it needs to be done before the details of 2000 onwards are lost

[Messenger]

I am a little worried this year's MM could turn into a procession
I am not the only one, for when Josh Jenkins asked Gareth Hall how he would spend $100 on the MM, he said he would put it all on the Trifecta 1-2-3

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/jenkins-and-hall-tackle-the-miracle-mile-in-harnessed/

[Messenger]

What is the word on the track
This is nearby Campbelltown's rainfall for the end of Feb

[Messenger]

And this is their rainfall for March up until 9am this morning
That is 270.2mm of rain in 15 days (that is 11½ inches in the old language)

[Messenger]

ps Melbourne's mean Rainfall for a year is 648mm
so they have had about 42% of Melbourne's Annual rainfall in just 15 days

[Messenger]

Virtually no rainfall for Campbelltown in the last 24 hrs so we should be good but all this talk about whether the mobile goes faster for the big races (helping the inside) may be the reverse tonight as traction for the mobile would be the biggest concern for the track

[Messenger]

The weather holds off until the Ainsworth and now the MM is looking a longshot

[Showgrounds]

Virtually no rainfall for Campbelltown in the last 24 hrs so we should be good but all this talk about whether the mobile goes faster for the big races (helping the inside) may be the reverse tonight as traction for the mobile would be the biggest concern for the track

Well done Kev! You sure put the mocker on that!

[Messenger]

Teach them to call us Mexicans

[Messenger]

I'm afraid that nearby Campbelltown is still copping a drenching. The morning after what was supposed to be MM night, they had 56mm in the guage, this morning they had 46mm more in the guage and so far today they have had 20mm
No Menangle tomorrow

[Messenger]

If Menangle is getting similar rain to Campbelltown you would have to think the MM going ahead this Saturday is even money at best
At 9am this morning, that 20mm I reported for yesterday had grown to 109mm

That is now 480mm in 18 days = 63% of Melbourne's yearly rainfall

It is freaky that at the very same time I was typing this so was PP

[Messenger]

PP is suggesting a shift to Bathurst (which has had a fraction of the rain). Maybe they should be considering it
Or there is Newcastle if it MUST be a Mile (it also has had minor rain)

[Messenger]

The rainfall totals from this event have been staggering.

From 9am Thursday to 9am Monday (4 days) three stations recorded over a metre of rain:

- 1637mm at Mount Glorious, QLD
- 1180mm at Pomona, QLD
- 1094mm at Bracken Ridge

Brisbane has absolutely smashed its three-day rainfall record with 677mm, by recording over 200mm each day for three days in a row.

Before this week it had never even had two consecutive days over 200mm and had only ever recorded eight in total.

The mean annual rainfall for Brisbane is 1011.5mm and it recorded 741mm in just the four days from 9am Thursday and 9am Monday.

Speaking of records, Weatherzone is reporting Dunoon in NSW recorded the second-highest daily rainfall total in NSW when 775mm fell in just the 24 hours to 9am Monday.

If you are not sick of stats yet, Doon Doon in NSW picked up a whopping 1040mm of rain in just the 48 hours to 9am Tuesday. That is over a metre of rain in just two days

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/weather-explainer/100873014

That 775mm by Dunoon in 24hrs is more than Melbourne's yearly rainfall, it is the equivalent of over 32mm of rain every hour for 24hrs straight
One dose of 32mm in an hour is enough to wash out a race meeting

[aussiebreno]

PP is suggesting a shift to Bathurst (which has had a fraction of the rain). Maybe they should be considering it
Or there is Newcastle if it MUST be a Mile (it also has had minor rain)

He also stole a photo from HRNSW press release and claimed it was Menangle track TODAY despite the press release noting the photo was from a previous flood....

[Messenger]

Campbelltown had another 21mm yesterday, surely it will have to be moved. Otherwise it would have to be ready to be trialed on Friday - it is not going to happen
It needs to be run this week or else it will end up 4 weeks between runs for some horses
They must make an announcement today - which will have to be where it is going to be held. Newcastle had 22mm yesterday but Bathurst only 9mm

[Messenger]

Bruce Christison of Club Menangle was on In The Gig last night and there will not be a problem racing on Saturday night

[Messenger]

Not only did the barrier draw fall their way but also the extra week break IMO
Remembering
KOS is unbeaten in 11 runs over a mile at Menangle, five of them at Group 1 level
and that they are the class horses, it would not surprise to see the McCarthys trifecta the race

[aussiebreno]

Not only did the barrier draw fall their way but also the extra week break IMO
Remembering
KOS is unbeaten in 11 runs over a mile at Menangle, five of them at Group 1 level
and that they are the class horses, it would not surprise to see the McCarthys trifecta the race
Spot on. King and Louis ran cracking miles - week off a godsend for them.

[Messenger]

He is a Great

[Showgrounds]

He is a Great

Yep, both of them - the horse's performance and Luke McCarthy's drive.

It took guts to do what McCarthy did once crossed because if another horse came knocking he was cooked. Nothing did and, as a spectacle, the race degenerated into a 400 metre sprint out of the gate. I expected Bondi Lockdown to test the King but he immediately dropped anchor when the King regained the lead and the race was as good as over. Bondi Lockdown, as foretold earlier in the week, might have been cherry ripe had the race been run as scheduled but the extra week left him underdone. It showed.

[Messenger]

The Vics created a bit of interest but what makes his win so full of merit is the fact that those who tested him early/the others that went hard early finished at the rear.
Jack Callaghan a superstar of the future and once again Greg Sugars showed what a good driver he is. Better Eclipse will be a star of the future but I would also love to see how Greg Sugars would go on Bondi Lockdown

Interesting in the pre race interviews to see those impressive markings on Better Eclipse, I am assuming they are a somatic mutation as discussed early in the Coloured Horses thread

http://www.harnessracingforum.com/showthread.php?6292-Coloured-Horses

[aussiebreno]

Yep, both of them - the horse's performance and Luke McCarthy's drive.

It took guts to do what McCarthy did once crossed because if another horse came knocking he was cooked. Nothing did and, as a spectacle, the race degenerated into a 400 metre sprint out of the gate. I expected Bondi Lockdown to test the King but he immediately dropped anchor when the King regained the lead and the race was as good as over. Bondi Lockdown, as foretold earlier in the week, might have been cherry ripe had the race been run as scheduled but the extra week left him underdone. It showed.
I think Bondi was overdone rather than underdone. Dont lose much in a week. Underdone he loses by a couple lengths giving out last 100m or so. Overdone you drop out early. Took 3seconds off Rattrays track record 10 days after running 1.47. A track thats had Beautide and Ignatius. Mile is a fresh horses races, hence good record of 4yos since Chariots winner gets the invite and a horse like Field Marshall running the record after bypassing the Grand Circuit that season. Not fresh running 1.47 and breaking 3sec track record in space of 10 days and trainer commented he was down after the 1.47 run.

King too good. Woulda been interesting if Louis kicked up to keep him pocketed - I think strategically thats the play Callaghan should have done.

[Messenger]

King too good. Woulda been interesting if Louis kicked up to keep him pocketed - I think strategically thats the play Callaghan would have done if he drove for another stable.

An alternative writing ;)

[aussiebreno]

An alternative writing ;)
I like your version more