Interdom 2022

[Messenger]

It is almost 6mths away but the TAB have put out pre-nom markets
They must be a winner for them or they have too much time on their hands

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2022-12-10/H/Harness%20Futures/Inter%20Dominion%20Trotting%20(Pre%20Noms)?futures =true

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2022-12-10/H/Harness%20Futures/Inter%20Dominion%20Pacing%20(Pre%20Noms)?futures=t rue

[Showgrounds]

They frame a market because it is too cold for two flies to be crawling up a wall. Only the truly desperate would be betting on some of these. $8 for Lochinvar Art looks a bargain, except there are still very real doubts about his soundness. Australasia's most consistent pacer Self Assured looks an absolute good bet at the same odds. Problem: The ID starts on 10 December while NZ Trotting Cup is run just a month earlier and is has higher stakes. Three days later is the NZ FFA is worth another $200K - how many Kiwi horses will by-pass these to come to Melbourne? Self Assured is already most likely to stay home and Copy That is another on the comeback trail.

Soho Tribeca at $31 during the stud season anyone? He's trilled OK twice but will be 10 and has not raced for three years, only once in the last 4 years. $1.50 Louie Fly, $4 Buzz The Blowie look better value at this stage. Proof that some people will bet on anything.

[Yabbie]

Sorry your dates are incorrect, the Interdom Grand Final is on Sat 10 Dec 2022 (Melton) with qualifying heats as follows:
Sat 26 Nov 2022 (Ballarat)
Tues 29 Nov 2022 (Shepparton)
Sat 3 Dec 2022 (Geelong)
Although your point about NZ horses coming to race here makes perfect sense.
However, this has also been the case for the last few years

And it is all very well framing a market, but the conditions of the racing have not yet been published ......

[Showgrounds]

My mistake, the scheduling of the series only serves to weaken the both the ID and, possibly, the NZ Cup. The early market reminds me of the great folly last year. I wonder how many wagers were taken on Ride High up to final acceptances?

[Messenger]

What we know

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/2022-inter-dominion-nominations-to-close-in-late-september/

[Messenger]

New ranking system revealed for Victoria's 2022 Inter Dominion

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/new-ranking-system-revealed-for-victorias-2022-inter-dominion/

a) Winners of any Australian or New Zealand Grand Circuit race

It does not stipulate how far back in history we can go, it would appear that a horse that won a GC race 3yrs ago and not raced since would be near the top of the rankings :confused:

[Showgrounds]

As predicted Soho Tribeca's comeback was short lived. Back to stud for you lover boy!

http://https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/racing-comeback-abandoned-as-tribeca-heads-back-to-stud/

[Messenger]

Everybody seems to think they have a horse good enough for the Inter
Giveitatry wins its first metro race and they are talking Inter
Mind you he did beat Arggghhh, who after winning last week, had connections talking Inter (Arggghhh has won more than a couple of metros)

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/lang-hints-at-give-id22-atry-after-rolling-wave/

[Messenger]

With another golden ticket into the Interdom, The Minuteman FFA has given us a magnificent field even with the scratching of Rock N Roll Doo
8/11 runners have some sort of chance

[Messenger]

Honolua blitzs them again
The amazing thing about Emma Stewart horses is how they string so many wins together
It is normally very hard to notch up a hattrick but she does multiple hattricks

[Messenger]

A massive component of multiple hattricks is of course the drivers. They have to be consistently good or else the run ends

[Messenger]

The run ended for Honolulu tonight as much as anything due to Mark Pitt thinking he had to leave the 1x1 to sit in the death
I could see tonight one of the reasons horses run for him - he must weigh next to nothing, I reckon I would have weighed more in primary school and I was a skinny kid!

[Messenger]

Aaron Dunn talking about Bondi not contesting the Inter

“From my base in Horsham it’s a lot of travel getting around to the heats throughout various parts of Victoria, but all going well we will definitely be in Brisbane to contest the series next year,” he said.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/self-imposed-lockdown-over-for-bondi-dunn-as-vic-cup-looms/

It is a genuine consideration and I think Shep may be a stretch too far
IMO Bendigo may have been a better option

I know the Inter has traditionally be a test of toughness but maybe another week instead of the midweek heats would be kinder to horses and trainers

[Messenger]

What are the facilities like at Shep nowadays - the Interdom promo has a picture of a BBQ for Shep :confused:

https://www.thetrots.com.au/id22/

Final noms are due out any minute

[Messenger]

The noms
Is last year's winner the worst of them?

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/151-nominations-for-victorian-inter-dominion-championships/

[Showgrounds]

I would be most surprised if last year's winner fronts up.

[Yabbie]

What are the facilities like at Shep nowadays - the Interdom promo has a picture of a BBQ for Shep :confused:

https://www.thetrots.com.au/id22/

Final noms are due out any minute

I think you will find that they have a buffet and these are the heated dishes that hold the food - not a BBQ

[Messenger]

I think you will find that they have a buffet and these are the heated dishes that hold the food - not a BBQ

Not exactly showcasing Shep though is it

[Yabbie]

Not exactly showcasing Shep though is it

You are probably right (personally I don't take much notice of the pictures) but having said that dining in the winning post room at Shep is booked out. Personally I think the marquee at $100 for a 2 course buffet is way overpriced (as are most of the Melton options). Ballarat dining options are pretty fair and much closer to what they charge for normal meetings. Geelong charges aren't bad either.

[Messenger]

Now the noms have been ranked

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/inter-dominion-rankings-released-revealing-the-race-to-id22/

LOL at numero uno

[aussiebreno]

Somewhat of a correction Honolua Bay now into $17. (Magnificent Storm also into $21)

[Messenger]

It is an interesting market Brendan
Fav Rock N Roll Doo = $4.50, the stable have said he is not running
2nd Fav Expensive Ego = $6.50, has not been in form and has not won a Gp1 since May 1, 2021

[Messenger]

Even being conservative, that’s four of the top six or eight horses in this part of the world already missing from the Inter Dominion pacing series.

That’s disappointing and unthinkable in years gone by.

It simply cannot continue.

Before we talk about possible solutions, why is this happening?

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/the-forum/hamilton/hamilton-its-time-to-talk-about-the-ailing-inter-dominion/

[Showgrounds]

Even being conservative, that’s four of the top six or eight horses in this part of the world already missing from the Inter Dominion pacing series.

That’s disappointing and unthinkable in years gone by.

It simply cannot continue.

Before we talk about possible solutions, why is this happening?

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/the-forum/hamilton/hamilton-its-time-to-talk-about-the-ailing-inter-dominion/

Poor programming for the series, tradionally held late summer or early autumn, and very poor stakemoney for a series of such great stature and history ��

[aussiebreno]

Act Now reminding everyone why many rated him Austs best 3yo . Possibly his best win at this top level as he didnt just get to use his gate speed. Showed plenty of ticker down the straight. TAB asleep and $51 still available.

[aussiebreno]

Act Now reminding everyone why many rated him Austs best 3yo . Possibly his best win at this top level as he didnt just get to use his gate speed. Showed plenty of ticker down the straight. TAB asleep and $51 still available.
This is ridiculous that Act Now is still $51 with TAB.

12 months ago Act Now won the Breeders Crown at $2.25 while Rock N Roll Doo started $126 in the race. A month before that in the Derby Act Now win with Rock n Roll Doo finishing last.

Act Now was a little disappointing in his Menangle runs but he has shown he is back. The market last week only had him narrowly higher priced than Better Eclipse. Better Eclipse $10 for Inter but Act Now $51.

Mid post I've just checked other agencies and Ladbrokes have him $15 and Sportsbet $11. So clearly that price reflects the true form. The crux of the issue may be nobody is paying attention and/or betting into these markets.

[Messenger]

The promotion immediately sparked an investigation from Liquor and Gaming NSW to determine if Betr was illegally inducing people to gamble.

Liquor and Gaming may come looking for you Brendan :D

The last statement must be true as everything being computer driven would spark a reduction
(I will check with my insider when he comes home from taking my granddaughter swimming)

My gallops insiders have always teased me that we are irrelevant - is this further proof?

[Messenger]

From someone who does it for a living - they would be monitored so nobody is betting into these markets or on this horse

[Messenger]

If you think he is going to stay in the race and you think he will be a contender, you had better snap it up so that you can lay him at half the odds and make 50% on your money ;)

[aussiebreno]

Gallops market would have changed within 5 minutes.

Obviously my betting budget with a mortgage and wife wasn't enough to make a dent haha! I've reshuffled the budget and imposed a self ban for a while and upped my stake...I think we will see a change in the market soon. The important thing is he has went from ranked well down the bottom to ranked 28 so is all but guaranteed a spot in the heats now.

As you said, lay off opportunity exists.

[Messenger]

Into $41 now

[Messenger]

This is the top of the TAB's Inter market
Ridiculous
Those win odds should be round about their place odds at this early stage!
Have I missed an announcement that Rock N Roll Doo is going to contest the Inter?

[aussiebreno]

Act Now into $26

[aussiebreno]

Last week everybody doing the staying form to see who can stay 3200m for the Melb Cup and this week for the NZ Cup.

Which is interesting for the ID. How many days since Act Now lost a race that was longer than 1720m? 616 days. 8/8 in that time winning over distances from 2180m to 2690m. Compared to 1/9 over the short trip.

Surely for their domination of everything else Stewart team is due an ID!

[aussiebreno]

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/the-forum/hamilton/hamilton-my-top-picks-to-win-harness-racings-biggest-prizes/

Hamilton gives Majestic Cruiser the kiss of death. Found his comments re Honolua Bay interesting as well. I don't think any of Emma Stewarts stable have ever been accused of not being tough. Act Now can put up a quarter with the best of them but as discovered in previous post his longer distance form is actually better than his mile from. Im Themightyquinn was similar. I thought Honolua Bays Kilmore Cup run was absolutely massive and the run of the race. I don't think he will have trouble with the longer racing.

[Messenger]

Gallops market would have changed within 5 minutes.

There would seem to be even less attention being paid to the Trotters market

Several scratchings are still in the 'All In' market
Majestic Harry who got a Golden Ticket in last weekend is $151 ($31 place)
while Cover Of Darkness is $21 and yet is 46 of 49 left on the rankings and I think it is still only going to be 2 heats so only 24 (not sure though)

Rankings

https://www.thetrots.com.au/id22/#rank

[Messenger]

Announced - there will be 3 heats for trotters. This coming only 9 days before the first round, you have to say it is does not suggest there was a lot of research and planning for the ID

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/hrv-continues-to-back-trotting-with-additional-id22-heats/

[aussiebreno]

Act Now now into $15.

[aussiebreno]

Final rankings

https://www.thetrots.com.au/id22/#rank

Fields for first round of heats out tomorrow.

[Messenger]

43 still listed, I see a couple of them listed for other races on the program. I want last ranked Fides to get up there - to give connections the option to run him. I am not sure he could see out series but with the right draw he could win on the first night

[Yabbie]

43 still listed, I see a couple of them listed for other races on the program. I want last ranked Fides to get up there - to give connections the option to run him. I am not sure he could see out series but with the right draw he could win on the first night

Mattie Craven left his run too late with Fides - final contenders announced - https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/sentrack-id22-horses-revealed-as-stars-get-ready-to-rumble/

[Messenger]

Bolt For Brilliance draws 1, Majestuoso draws 2 = Blessed
Better Eclipse 1 in his heat while Act Now 7 in his heat could be tricky
NSW's biggest contenders Expensive Ego, Spirit Of St Louis, Majestic Cruiser and I Cast No Shadow all had little luck

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA261122

[aussiebreno]

Black Princes movements will be crucial to Act Nows succuss

While not really a slight on Moran, Quinlan or Pitt because all good drivers I can't help but think Nathan Jack going into the series currently without a drive could be detrimental to the Stewart stables chances. Noting K Gath has Tango Tara Jack is probably next cab off the rank, I wonder if he gets a drive in the first round of heats somewhere.

[Messenger]

There are several with speed inside of Act Now, I wonder whether they will consider driving for a sit - the trouble with that is, he may end up last

[Messenger]

Barrier stats are interesting for Ballarat
These are of course for No Sprint Lane whereas there will be on Saturday
1 No advantage
2 Incredibly poor

[Messenger]

Mona Mia now gets a start!
Has not won for a year but better credentialled than last years winner and some of the trotters

[aussiebreno]

HRV bullied into 3x trotters heats due to 'depth of trotters' but only two horses in each heat are single figures.

[Messenger]

I think you might be right Brendan
We could almost have got away with 2 heats of pacers

[aussiebreno]

Heat 1.
He wouldn't be crossed if he wants to lead, but of some minor concern would be something gassing him early in order for him to hold that lead. Regardless Pitt should be able to adjust to any challenges. Focus Stride and Wolf Stride will need some tarmac at some stage but aren't without a hope of picking up place points however the place points should be going to Act Now who hopefully doesn't experience too tough a run and Expensive Ego. I don't think you could back anything though unless its an interest bet on the Stride horses.

Heat 2.
Tango Tara should do enough to hold out Bettor Call Me who I think once doesn't find the pegs will find it hard. BBTB isn't known for gate speed so Zuess Bromac should get across easy enough. Whether thats to cross Tango Tara, or to let Alta Orlando go and then cross won't matter, Zuess Bromac should end up getting an easy lead and from there he's going to be mighty tough to run down and is probably the win bet of the heats. Majestic Cruiser could end up in a precarious spot from that draw (especially if Stewards warn drivers and take appropriate action about blatant cheating) while Spirit of St Louis is probably a little suspect with that draw. Trifectas mainly around Zuess and Honolua and neglecting Cruiser/Louis could be a play here.

Heat 3
Better Eclipse has great gate speed so should hold up. Like a Wildfire improved last start but before that hadn't been at his best since the Brisbane trip so prepared to risk here. Torrid Saint has shown enough that leaders back he will run a place. May be a little hard to get into the race but I Cast No Shadow and Narutac Prince (underrated horse) place hopes.

[Messenger]

How are we going to get West Aussies to come if we always give them the visitors draw

[Mighty Atom]

How are we going to get West Aussies to come if we always give them the visitors draw

You are right Kev as everyone knows I've been on about these rigged barrier draws for years particularly when it comes to WA horses it proves to be more than a coincidence time and time again.
I'd advise all WA trainers to bypass Victoria Harness Racing in future.
I'm surprised To Fast To Serious is lining up the horse is not good enough for an away ID series.

[Messenger]

Rod, the trainer said it is as much about experience for him and the horse, as anything else

[Messenger]

We could have a problem if another front line horse is scratched from R6
I am thinking that the emergencies start from 13,14,15 not the position of the scratched horse
With 2 out of R6 already we now have 7 off the second line - it cannot/is not supposed to take 8, so if there was another front line scratching!?

[aussiebreno]

We could have a problem if another front line horse is scratched from R6
I am thinking that the emergencies start from 13,14,15 not the position of the scratched horse
With 2 out of R6 already we now have 7 off the second line - it cannot/is not supposed to take 8, so if there was another front line scratching!?

Conditions on TheTrots website I believe. From memory read this other day and emergencies take barrier of scratched horse. On phone at the moment so cant check.

[Yabbie]

Conditions on TheTrots website I believe. From memory read this other day and emergencies take barrier of scratched horse. On phone at the moment so cant check.

correct - the emergency takes the barrier of the scratched horse

[Messenger]

Damn, I had a little nibble at Bettor Call Me the place on the basis of this not looking like they did

[aussiebreno]

Act Now just continues to shorten. Into $11 6th favourite.

[Messenger]

How is this for a cross-section of the driving population
R3 the 2nd heat of the Trotters
We have:

Two 20 somethings
Three 30 somethings
One 40
One 50 something
Two 60's
One 78
One 82

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BA261122#BAM26112210

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/bob-set-for-an-inter-dom-debut-82-years-in-the-making/

[Messenger]

correct - the emergency takes the barrier of the scratched horse

but Mona Mia is ODM so she wont
so which barrier does Jilliby Nitro get - 1 or 3?
a million to one but what if all 3 emergencies were ODM and we had 3 front row scratchings
(make a new ruling I guess)

[Messenger]

I Should have gone to HRA's Stewards News first or read Vic's scratching report on Tango

As a consequence of the scratching of Tango Tara NZ, in accordance with the following condition of the Inter Dominion Pacing Championship:

22 (b) Emergencies that are declared in the First Round of Qualifying Heats (only) will be allocated the outside barrier positions. Any emergency gaining a start will take the barrier position of the first scratched horse but retain its allocated saddlecloth number, unless the emergency is declared by the Stewards ODM, RODM, EOD.

The second (2nd) emergency Jilliby Nitro has gained a start and is to wear saddlecloth number 14 and commence from barrier one (1) in Race 6 at Ballarat on Saturday, 26 November 2022.


https://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=59018

[Messenger]

I see JB also failed to read the media releases

BETTOR CALL ME (2) who will relish the suck run he seems certain to receive from what will now be the pole marking draw.

[Messenger]

I had hoped the nice weather we have finally got, may have held up for Ballarat tonight but the change/showers is just about at Halls Gap and we are only 1½hrs from Ballarat so they may need a bit of luck

[Messenger]

Serious rain here but we are the Gap

[Messenger]

Looking at the empty outdoor areas as JB wanders around on TrotsVision, I am worried that that downpour could not have come at a worse time for determining whether many locals decide to come tonight
I reckon it is a goer as Halls Gap has had blue skys and sunshine for the last half hour

[aussiebreno]

Well thank god that travesty of a sport is over. 3x gallopers first 100m of first heat, false start 2nd heat, $2 fave gallops 3rd heat. Large 20m+ margins to most horses when they were still 3.5seconds outside track record.
Highlights were Bolt for Brilliance put in a ripper, first two across the line in first heat lived up to hype and Brittany Graham snagging leaders back and Herbertson showing initiative after the fave galloped were good drives in the third heat. Not sure how many horses have went from last in a NR70-100 to winning a ID heat! Hopefully a thing of signs to come this series for Jodi Quinlan !

[aussiebreno]

Act now!!!!!!!!!

[Messenger]

We could have got $8 Breno!
They are raving about Expensive Ego BUT why not consider that Act Now could beat him again if he had his back or the lead

[aussiebreno]

I see JB also failed to read the media releases

BETTOR CALL ME (2) who will relish the suck run he seems certain to receive from what will now be the pole marking draw.
And Hamilton saying the 2 scratching will help Alta Orlando cross. Ahh hello one has gone to the front

[aussiebreno]

We could have got $8 Breno!
They are raving about Expensive Ego BUT why not consider that Act Now could beat him again if he had his back or the lead
My thoughts exactly. Winner win for a reason.

[aussiebreno]

They were referencing Louis back row draw and Hamilton alluded McCarthys driving will be fine...too bad Lukes not driving him...
They also consistently bag Honolua Bay. Think that will backfire at some stage

[aussiebreno]

Backfired straight away. Can we get two worse form analysts offering their opinion?

[Messenger]

Sure did

[Messenger]

But they are good presenters. Last time/Vic Cup they had JB in studio with them doing the analysis

[Messenger]

The Stewart stable in the background tonight and yet 2/2 heats - can Wildfire or Narutac make it three

[Messenger]

Looking at the empty outdoor areas as JB wanders around on TrotsVision, I am worried that that downpour could not have come at a worse time for determining whether many locals decide to come tonight
I reckon it is a goer as Halls Gap has had blue skys and sunshine for the last half hour
Looking at the drone shots they are showing us of the parade ring and the public area in front of it - last time I was at Ballarat for a big night (Derby heats a couple of years back?), this alfresco area was packed with people but I cannot see anyone in those drone shots

[aussiebreno]

Heat 1.
He wouldn't be crossed if he wants to lead, but of some minor concern would be something gassing him early in order for him to hold that lead. Regardless Pitt should be able to adjust to any challenges. Focus Stride and Wolf Stride will need some tarmac at some stage but aren't without a hope of picking up place points however the place points should be going to Act Now who hopefully doesn't experience too tough a run and Expensive Ego. I don't think you could back anything though unless its an interest bet on the Stride horses.
After thinking Mach Dan would win and Act Now and Ego would pick up the place points I wasn't far wrong, but Act Now and Ego decided to run almighty races and cement themselves as easily part of the top 5 horses in the series. Hard to be disappointed with Mach Dan running just outside track record just found two stars tonight

Heat 2.
Tango Tara should do enough to hold out Bettor Call Me who I think once doesn't find the pegs will find it hard. BBTB isn't known for gate speed so Zuess Bromac should get across easy enough. Whether thats to cross Tango Tara, or to let Alta Orlando go and then cross won't matter, Zuess Bromac should end up getting an easy lead and from there he's going to be mighty tough to run down and is probably the win bet of the heats. Majestic Cruiser could end up in a precarious spot from that draw (especially if Stewards warn drivers and take appropriate action about blatant cheating) while Spirit of St Louis is probably a little suspect with that draw. Trifectas mainly around Zuess and Honolua and neglecting Cruiser/Louis could be a play here.
Trifecta around Zuess and Honolua was the right play but Cruiser managed to get out into the running line to spoil the result. Honolua and Cruiser the two to take out of it, Zuess slightly disappointing. Louis shows at this level he needs things to go right

Heat 3
Better Eclipse has great gate speed so should hold up. Like a Wildfire improved last start but before that hadn't been at his best since the Brisbane trip so prepared to risk here. Torrid Saint has shown enough that leaders back he will run a place. May be a little hard to get into the race but I Cast No Shadow and Narutac Prince (underrated horse) place hopes. Better Eclipse did his job winning but AGs spoiled the place party with Narutac 2nd, Shadow 4th and Torrid Saint 5th. Right call to risk Wildfire. Probably the weakest heat and we'll find out a bit more about a few of these in the next round of heats
Wrap up

[Messenger]

and congratulations to Anne on an Inter heat win!

[Messenger]

How weak is the 2nd heat on Tuesday!
Unlucky for Act Now - if he draws front over the short distance he simply wins

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP291122#SPM29112201

[aussiebreno]

Heat 4 looks a pretty simple Tri but the market has found them. Mach Dan should be crossing, I Cast No Shadow and Luke will be happy to death seat with Ego. Which order they finish in who knows. Act Now has drawn horrible and will find a plethora of horses such as Black Prince, Wolf Stride, Like a Wildfire and Zuess Bromac hard to get past over the sprint trip from back there so the win night 1 was crucial. Ego the place $1.54 looks well overs on last nights run but how much trust he has given a few past flops in past 12 months to invest a worthwhile amount I don't know.

Heat 5 Tactically interesting, and probably weakest, heat here. If I was BBTB I would be trying to lead. Showed some gate speed last night and if he hands up he risks landing too far back on the marker line because I think the first horse to greet him will be Nuratac who they like to drive with a sit. Spirit of St Louis should be able to work across to the chair, and it usually takes a good one to beat him home if he's close to the action but I think these are probably the 2nd raters, so this is his heat for the taking. $2.80 currently available. $4.84 place for BBTB.

Heat 6
On first glance it looks like Better Eclipse leads, Honolua Bay sits outside him. But then you said Alta Orlando on the front line. Better Eclipse may actually be one horse that can still hold him out though. Majestic Cruiser a shocker of a draw, Cam Hart has some thinking to do but should still pick up enough handy points. Think I'll sit out of this heat.

[aussiebreno]

Ego, Mach Dan, Honolua Bay, Better Eclipse and even Naruatac Prince should cement their place in the final field here.

Act Now, Majestic Cruiser, Spirit of St Louis, I Cast No Shadow should get themselves very close.

Zuess Bromac, Black Prince, Alta Orlando could be right on the periphery as well but a few others could join them.

[Messenger]

This is the TAB's latest market
Spirit still second favourite - not for me
Mach Dan also unders and those further out than Shadow cannot win

[Messenger]

Posts 79 & 80 are great summations by Brendan

[Messenger]

One we need to include is Beyond Delight in Heat 5
Dan mentioned his slashing finish in Heat 2 and watching the replay it was some run
He opened equal favourite for Tuesday but has been backed into clear $2.15 fav
Don't forget he is in the Stewart stable

Overall the first 7 in heats 1 & 3 deserve some credit while only the first 5 in heat 2 (IMO)

[aussiebreno]

One we need to include is Beyond Delight in Heat 5
Dan mentioned his slashing finish in Heat 2 and watching the replay it was some run
He opened equal favourite for Tuesday but has been backed into clear $2.15 fav
Don't forget he is in the Stewart stable

Overall the first 7 in heats 1 & 3 deserve some credit while only the first 5 in heat 2 (IMO)

Must be a popular theory Nuratac will lead and hand up to Beyond Delight.

[Messenger]

The standings leading into tomorrow night (Thanks to Paul Courts)

https://nationaltrotguide.com.au/inter-standings-after-night-one/?fbclid=IwAR2otegzDPH5A59vy9CVyvZCkSHBbtrqGhbc5G7G JE1ZBi1rctJH1HuN5co

[Messenger]

Backfired straight away. Can we get two worse form analysts offering their opinion?

They have just put together a mult - Ryan Phelan has added Bundoran the place. It is $1.30 - is the reward worth the risk!

[aussiebreno]

As I said the other night it was hard to be disappointed in Mach dan the other night 0.4 seconds outside the track record. Plenty wanted to bag him though, good on him winning...how about the run of Act Now though!!! May have had a flat tyre last 200m too

[aussiebreno]

They have just put together a mult - Ryan Phelan has added Bundoran the place. It is $1.30 - is the reward worth the risk!

Yeah leave me out of backing Bundoran. Banned book a long time ago aftet an impressive Inter series last season

[Messenger]

As I said the other night it was hard to be disappointed in Mach dan the other night 0.4 seconds outside the track record. Plenty wanted to bag him though, good on him winning...how about the run of Act Now though!!! May have had a flat tyre last 200m too

I am very happy with my interest in Act Now (thanks to you Brendan)
A barrier in the final will be essential but that is the case for all of them

[aussiebreno]

Stewart v McCarthy so far tonight. All winners and place getters in the first two heats

[aussiebreno]

Geurin goes from telling us Stewart horses will have in feed bucket shortly ...when its 3hr drive
Next time he speaks he says he will sum the protest up in one word "complete waste of time." Thats 4 words at my count.

[Messenger]

Nevertheless he was right about it being a complete waste of time

[aussiebreno]

He was.

Just now says "Bundoran will hand up from the calls I've made today" ... really? What?

[aussiebreno]

I said before the series N Jack deserves a drive and I think Narutac and Honolua would have appreciated him tonight despite the end results

[Messenger]

Honolua Bay Magnificent

[aussiebreno]

Honolua Bay Magnificent

Too right!

[aussiebreno]

Somewhat of a correction Honolua Bay now into $17. (Magnificent Storm also into $21)

Storm didnt show, but the odds after Vic Cup as posted here were ridiculous!

[aussiebreno]

HRV Facebook great for updates with the leaderboards and next round of heats draw.

Mach Dan and Louis drawn bad but not the best field.

Act Now draws perfect. Majestic Cruiser on the edge on points and draws bad in a tough field.

Looks Honoluas Bays for the taking after tonight. Torrid Saint from the pole has been dangerous though all season this draw could get him into the final.

My pick at a ID final field:
Act Now
Honolua Bay
Mach Dan
Expensive Ego
Better Eclipse
Spirit of St Louis
Narutac Prince
Torrid Saint
Beyond Delight
Zuess Bromac
Majestic Cruiser
Petes Said So?

[Messenger]

Thanks to HRV facebook

[Messenger]

Act Now makes the final but pretty much every round, he has drawn the toughest heat with Expensive Ego every time (along with Wolf Stride and The Black Prince)

[aussiebreno]

Sportsbet have the top 3 ID point scorers Honolua Bay, Act Now and Mach Dan at $41 each for the Miracle Mile. Ladbrokes go as far as $61 for Mach Dan. Even Ego and Louis are $15 each with Ladbrokes. Outrageous. Too far out to load up but a couple dollars eachway wouldnt hurt.

[Messenger]

Act Now into $6.50 to win the Final and so he should be.
I just watched it again and he made up 15m on Ego and was 3 and 4 and 5 wide doing it.
If Wolf Stride had not come out when he did, Act Now would have won

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP291122#SPM29112201

[Messenger]

Spirit Of St Louis was an excellent win but Narutac Prince flew when he got clear - he had not spent a penny but very impressive making ground when the leader is running a 26.6 Q
The angle must be a shocker at Shep as he was supposedly in a photo but beat 4th by a metre

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP291122#SPM29112210

[Messenger]

Nothing from the 3rd/6th heat can beat Honolua Bay
3 wide a lap without cover
I may prefer him over shorter distances than the Final (although he impressed in Kilmore Cup) and I would still like to see him stop hanging but he is in it up to his neck

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP291122#SPM29112211

[Showgrounds]

Spirit Of St Louis was an excellent win but Narutac Prince flew when he got clear - he had not spent a penny but very impressive making ground when the leader is running a 26.6 Q
The angle must be a shocker at Shep as he was supposedly in a photo but beat 4th by a metre

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SP291122#SPM29112210

The positioning of the winning post at Shepparton has been controversial since the day the track was rebuilt. Who thought it was a great idea to position the winning post on the start of a turn?

[aussiebreno]

HRV bullied into 3x trotters heats due to 'depth of trotters' but only two horses in each heat are single figures.

Sundons Courage and Longfellow equal beaten margins. One is currwntly in the final. One is 1 point off being last. 2 heats for trotters next year please. They make up roughly 15% of the horse population, 3 heats means they are overrepresented no wonder there is depth issues.

[Messenger]

What a great night of racing it should be
Their 3rd race in 8 days
If I was the Stewart stable I would have Honolua and Mach take it easy and Act Now hand up to one of their others too

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE031222

This is what we have to watch tonight

[Messenger]

Mielicki will also be able to enjoyed as always on Sky Racing, where Brittany Graham will capture the all-important final word from drivers before the gates open.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/id22-gets-star-treatment-including-free-to-air-finals-night-broadcast/

It would be disappointing if Brittany is not part of the TrotsVision an Racing.com coverage after being integral to all the heats

[aussiebreno]

I think the arrangement has always been on track is courtesy of Britt/Sky and Trots Vision getting access to that. I've noticed theyve thanked Sky several times when throwing to Britt the past week.

[Messenger]

Hey Brendan, I left the screen for a bit and when I came back I thought they were say Just Believe is guaranteed the front line - what was that about?

[aussiebreno]

Hey Brendan, I left the screen for a bit and when I came back I thought they were say Just Believe is guaranteed the front line - what was that about?

I wasnt paying attention, did hear something like that in the background

[aussiebreno]

I dont know about the track record time a week out from Act Now.

[Messenger]

Ordinary drive IMO. She did not need to go anywhere near that quick
Q's 1,2,3 should have all been a second slower
They ran 5.7 secs faster than the first heat

I did the maths and that is 77.44m in front of Honolua Bay
That means last Mona Mia is 50m in front of Honolua Bay

[Messenger]

6 Vics and 6 NSW in the pacers Final

[Messenger]

Ordinary drive IMO. She did not need to go anywhere near that quick
Q's 1,2,3 should have all been a second slower
They ran 5.7 secs faster than the first heat

I did the maths and that is 77.44m in front of Honolua Bay
That means last Mona Mia is 50m in front of Honolua Bay

I should really calculated what 5.7 secs is worth on Act Now's pace (not on Honolua's pace)
So Act Now would have been 79.83m in front of Honolua

Act Now would have only been 10m in front of Mach Dan as that was also a fast heat

[Messenger]

The Final

[Messenger]

The Trot Final

[Beltane]

Now that was some ID defence by Boncel Benjamin: 12th, 10th and 12th.

[Messenger]

The 3 heats of Trotters saw Ofortuna 28th and Sleepee 35th make the Final
The worst ranked Pacers to make the Final are Beyond Delight 26th, Pete Said So 27th and Narutac Prince 30th

[Showgrounds]

Now that was some ID defence by Boncel Benjamin: 12th, 10th and 12th.

Perhaps it was his farewell tour.

[aussiebreno]

Is it as simple as Mach Dan sits outside Honolua Bay 18th Nov and beats him.
Honolua Bay then goes undefeated, with Mach Dans only defeat coming at the hands of Act Now.
Act Now of course beaten home subsequently by Mach Dan, but look at the runs and tell me who the best run was.

I really hope so.

I think Honolua Bay was a tad off that night at Melton though.

[Messenger]

All you need now Brendan, is for Act Now to draw the front with another fast beginner/non threat - to get his back

[Messenger]

It does not mean much until we see the barrier draw tomorrow night

[Messenger]

You hear Adam Hamilton on TrotsVision saying we cannot be rigid in thinking about the Inter format - citing the fact that we are not attracting all the best horses

Maybe Adam should consider the prizemoney decline as the possible reason for this

2022 Melton $500k
2021 Menangle $500k
2020 - Covid
2019 Auckland $500k
2018 Melton $500k
2017 Perth $1.1m
2016 Perth $1.1m
2015 Perth $1.3m (December)
2015 Menangle $750k (March)
2014 Menangle $750k
2013 Menangle $750k
2012 Perth $1m
2011 Auckland $800k
2010 Menangle $1m
2009 Gold Coast $1m
2008 Melbourne $750k
2007 Adelaide $500k
2006 Hobart $1.5m
2005 Auckland $750k
2004 Perth $500k
2003 Christchurch $500k
2002 Sydney $500k
2001 Brisbane $500k
2000 Melbourne $1m
1999 Auckland $400k

Yes, you have to go back to last century to find the Final run for less
$500k is not exactly standout 'grab the public attention' prizemoney
Is the list above actually symbolic of our decline?

The rot started in 2018 (Melton's last Inter)

Part of David Martin's balancing the books?

Did he leave us in a better position? Sometimes you have to spend more on Big events to have a profile which then ends up paying for itself

Although the funding method is controversial, I guess this is what the Eureka is attempting to do (at the expense of the Inter?)

[Messenger]

Bolt For Brilliance out of the Inter

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/kiwi-champ-bolt-for-brilliance-ruled-out-of-id22-decider/

[Messenger]

You have to be pretty happy with that Brendan

[Messenger]

The Trot Final

[aussiebreno]

Justice has been leading on Mufasa Metro. Although I think he would be best served handing up to Majesteuso, Justice really rates Mufasa so I don't think he will. Queen Elida will run him down if thats the case. Think I'll be playing an Exacta Queen Elida to beat Mufasa Metro. Saver on a quinella Mufasa/Majesteuso

Pacers has me nervous. Act Now is so close to victory. Not saying anything newsworthy but its really down to Act Now and Honolua Bay unless something out of the ordinary were to happen. Good feeling to be on both prepost at massive overs, given size of result though I'll be cheering Act Now. I do put Honolua Bay on top though because he has option to not burn as hard early but still be in running line if lead isn't there.
Mach Dans drift has been too marked I feel, out to $13. Long distance gives him time to come into the race. Think he is still a fair chance to fill a place. Narutac along the fence also gives Stewart trifecta claims.
Louis is shot with that speed inside him and Ego will have to do it too tough.
I Cast No Shadow after its heats surely hands up, went putrid when leading. Only a month ago beat Honolua Bay at Menangle so has fair claims on the race too.

[Messenger]

TAB Fixed

Honolua Bay $2.50

Act Now $2.40

Sportsbet

Honolua Bay $2.70

Act Now $3.20

Sportsbet make TAB look very mean

[Messenger]

Expensive Ego has been well supported today

TAB $11 into $6.50

Sportsbet $9 into $6

I cannot see how he gets a cheap enough run to win

[Messenger]

Who will drive Beyond Delight in the final? Nathan Jack or is he out of favour after beating the stable in the Breeders Crown final with School Captain

[Messenger]

Even money favourite Queen Elida will create history if she wins the trotter’s final as no 4yo mare has ever done so

[Messenger]

If Emma was serious in rating Mach Dan her best chance - then the market is completely wrong and Honolua Bay and Act Now should be about $5

https://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=59216

Mach Dan has come into $13 on TAB after this - he will follow out Act Now

Disappointed in the article not mentioning who is driving Beyond Delight, you would think the public should know by now, fields and betting agencies still have Mark Pitt driving two horses

[aussiebreno]

Race only a couple days away now. Its the race I think everyone in the harness world is looking forward to most. Two hot horses drawn the front, both around $2.50 equal fave a victory here could stamp one as the best pacer in Australia. Yes we all cant wait for Patronus Star V Magnificent Storm!

[Messenger]

Very funny Brendan and wrong thread :mad:

[Messenger]

You hear Adam Hamilton on TrotsVision saying we cannot be rigid in thinking about the Inter format - citing the fact that we are not attracting all the best horses

Maybe Adam should consider the prizemoney decline as the possible reason for this

2022 Melton $500k
2021 Menangle $500k
2020 - Covid
2019 Auckland $500k
2018 Melton $500k
2017 Perth $1.1m
2016 Perth $1.1m
2015 Perth $1.3m (December)
2015 Menangle $750k (March)
2014 Menangle $750k
2013 Menangle $750k
2012 Perth $1m
2011 Auckland $800k
2010 Menangle $1m
2009 Gold Coast $1m
2008 Melbourne $750k
2007 Adelaide $500k
2006 Hobart $1.5m
2005 Auckland $750k
2004 Perth $500k
2003 Christchurch $500k
2002 Sydney $500k
2001 Brisbane $500k
2000 Melbourne $1m
1999 Auckland $400k

Yes, you have to go back to last century to find the Final run for less
$500k is not exactly standout 'grab the public attention' prizemoney
Is the list above actually symbolic of our decline?

The rot started in 2018 (Melton's last Inter)

Part of David Martin's balancing the books?

Did he leave us in a better position? Sometimes you have to spend more on Big events to have a profile which then ends up paying for itself

Although the funding method is controversial, I guess this is what the Eureka is attempting to do (at the expense of the Inter?)

I know a past forum poster who may have just the idea the Inter and Adam Hamilton need for she forwarded me a copy of an email that she sent to our CEO back in 2017, which is not only thought provoking and ahead of its time in terms of what has transpired of late but also aimed at having $3m up for grabs

[aussiebreno]

Manning on Beyond Delight.

Nathan Jack really out of favour.

[Messenger]

So how does it work when a stable has 5 starters?
Jodi Quinlan has to have a plan to beat Honolua Bay just as David Moran has to have a plan to beat Act Now and of course we have to throw Mach Dan into the mix
Do they follow Trainer instructions?

[aussiebreno]

So how does it work when a stable has 5 starters?
Jodi Quinlan has to have a plan to beat Honolua Bay just as David Moran has to have a plan to beat Act Now and of course we have to throw Mach Dan into the mix
Do they follow Trainer instructions?

We will know in the first 100m with lead battle between Honolua and Act Now.

Louis and Ego always been driven as if non-stablemates.. I remember one race in Vic they stuffed each other up. Temptation must be there for Louis to soften them up before Ego gets to the chair though.

[Messenger]

I think they would love Honolua on Act Now's back so they will want them both to cross I Cast No Shadow. Leader and leaders back - one will win unless last week's run took too much out of Act Now and he cannot even deliver Honolua to the sprint lane
The red herring could be if Mach Dan follows through on Act Now's back and lands 1x1 after Expensive Ego goes to the death
The way McCarthy has been talking however, it would seem that he knows Ego cannot sit in the death the whole race and win so who knows

[aussiebreno]

I think they would love Honolua on Act Now's back so they will want them both to cross I Cast No Shadow. Leader and leaders back - one will win unless last week's run took too much out of Act Now and he cannot even deliver Honolua to the sprint lane
The red herring could be if Mach Dan follows through on Act Now's back and lands 1x1 after Expensive Ego goes to the death
The way McCarthy has been talking however, it would seem that he knows Ego cannot sit in the death the whole race and win so who knows
Would Shadow risk 3 pegs. If they think Honolua will hand up to Act Now it might make them kick up.
If you owned Honolua would you want to hand up to Act Now and give him a headstart and allow him travel less distance?
Plenty of questions makes for a great race.

[Messenger]

This is where it becomes very confusing with Stewart training both. Despite some good distance runs, I am not as convinced that Honolua can lead all the way. I have not properly researched how fast 1 & 2 are, I might do that tonight.
Overall I have say that it is a bit of a joke that Shadow is a chance purely because of his draw - one of the bad points about harness racing but it has always been that way.

The old poster's model I referred to earlier, made the 'heats' big races in themselves (and after Rnd1 they are tiered) and the Final only marginally better prizemoney - takes some 'luck of a single draw out of it' and potentially spreads the prizemoney around (attractive if a '24 slots funding model' was introduced)

[aussiebreno]

This is where it becomes very confusing with Stewart training both. Despite some good distance runs, I am not as convinced that Honolua can lead all the way. I have not properly researched how fast 1 & 2 are, I might do that tonight.
Overall I have say that it is a bit of a joke that Shadow is a chance purely because of his draw - one of the bad points about harness racing but it has always been that way.

The old poster's model I referred to earlier, made the 'heats' big races in themselves (and after Rnd1 they are tiered) and the Final only marginally better prizemoney - takes some 'luck of a single draw out of it' and potentially spreads the prizemoney around (attractive if a '24 slots funding model' was introduced)
Hunter Cup this first three on the pegs finished top 4.
Last year Alta Orlando hands up lead to Arty so by default ran 2nd
Year before that first three on the pegs finished top 4.
Year before that lead and leaders back quinela
Anomaly the year before that because Lazarus and co in top 4 just had too much class on opposition.

Pretty big advantage

[aussiebreno]

My take

Honolua $2.80 Either straight in running line or first crack at the lead. His Kilmore Cup run was almighty and he won't have to do it as hard this time around. With Act Now form horse of the heats.
Act Now $4.50 You're greatest strength begets your greatest weakness. Can see him working too hard early with too great a field chasing him not Bundoran this week. Fingers crossed for a sit because he showed in the mile heat he can run on strong with the best of them.
Shadow $8.00 Fantastic draw. Only a month ago beat Honolua in sub 1.49 from off them. Everyone wanted to jump off Mach Dan because he got beat in just outside track record time at Ballarat. Well Shadow only got 5m in track record time, the run wasn't as bad it looked with him paddling the final 100m.
Mach Dan $8.00 Of the horses who aren't in the possible category he is going to get the best run. Won't have to use petrol tickets so if those possible leaders use up early fuel Mach Dan will be best placed to swoop.
Ego $9.00 Unless the early lead battle stings too much and Luke can time his leadership attack perfect its hard to see him winning. Just too hard from the death. Will be thereabouts though.
Prince $17.00 Has had a good series but this price just reflects the cushy run and less distance covered.
Zuess $21.00 Will get straight into the running line, use no early petrol and could give some cheek late
Eclipse $21.00 Will have to come around them all when I viewed his best chance as sitting leaders back. Don't think he is good enough to do that.
Louis $21.00 There is no lead there and I can't imagine in the horses best interest to try. Can't see him getting near the horses who lob leaders and leaders back unless the speed is really on but in that case MD and others would run past Louis.
Bundoran $26.00 Going to have to come around them all. Admittedly almost knocked off the top 2 seeds in the past 2 heats but those big guns had more than enough reasons to be fading. Even if race rune to suit MD, Zuess, Louis etc still too good for him.
Delight $31.00 Similar run to MD who is better.
Pete $101.00 Was relegated to the 2nd tier FFA just 2 months ago.

[Messenger]

I see Act Now getting the lead, either immediately (because Shadow decides not in their interest to burn too much energy early) or from the death to the lead when someone (Ego?) comes looking for the death. If he is not flat from last week (I hope not, he is a pretty strong type) and Jodi rates him well, I think he then wins - the distance is not a problem and I would be happy with Shadow on his back compared to some others
The other scenario I see is still Honolua crosses Shadow then Act Now crosses - Honolua on Act Now's back and it becomes a 50/50

St Louis has good gate speed too so maybe he comes looking first and then gets cover from stablemate Ego persisting - very tricky for Ego as Beyond Delight, splitting the stablemates, could keep him posted early. Mind you St Louis could get posted too if Mach is hard up on Act Now's back
The betting moves suggest Ego getting cover from St Louis but with the draws it is hard to see that happening

As you said the - first 100m will tell the story AND it could be sensational

[aussiebreno]

I see Act Now getting the lead, either immediately (because Shadow decides not in their interest to burn too much energy early) or from the death to the lead when someone (Ego?) comes looking for the death. If he is not flat from last week (I hope not, he is a pretty strong type) and Jodi rates him well, I think he then wins - the distance is not a problem and I would be happy with Shadow on his back compared to some others
The other scenario I see is still Honolua crosses Shadow then Act Now crosses - Honolua on Act Now's back and it becomes a 50/50

St Louis has good gate speed too so maybe he comes looking first and then gets cover from stablemate Ego persisting - very tricky for Ego as Beyond Delight, splitting the stablemates, could keep him posted early. Mind you St Louis could get posted too if Mach is hard up on Act Now's back
The betting moves suggest Ego getting cover from St Louis but with the draws it is hard to see that happening

As you said the - first 100m will tell the story AND it could be sensational
Yes those scenarios with Act Now are certainly plausible. I think the futures bet on Act Now has me reading the race pessimistically for him rather than being objective.

I don't see Louis having a great time of things whatever happens.

[Messenger]

Yes those scenarios with Act Now are certainly plausible. I think the futures bet on Act Now has me reading the race pessimistically for him rather than being objective.

I don't see Louis having a great time of things whatever happens.

I see Josh Jenkins has gone for St Louis based on the 'him in the 1x1 sitting on Ego's back' scenario

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/watch-josh-jenkins-dissects-id22-finals-night-in-harnessed/

[Adaptor]

Is Ryan Sanderson the youngest driver ( at 19 years) to drive in an Inter Dominion Final?

if not a Pacers Final, then surely a Trotters Final.

Chris Lewis was 20 winning on Carclew and Josh Gallagher 21 last series.
Robert Cameron may be the youngest paing driver with Robin Dundee.

In addition, Sanderson could join a very small group if he wins, without having another drive during the series.

[aussiebreno]

Quadruple whammy for the Stewart stable

Beyond Delight out
Narutac no longer on the fence
Mach Dan no longer following through Act Now
Easier for Ego to get cross

[aussiebreno]

Maybe Beyond Delight being out makes it a procession.
Stewarts make a decision on who leads between Honolua and Act Now. Other horse will lob 1-1 or 1-2. Louis gets either 1-1 or 1-2. Ego in the death. Mach Dan to start up 3 wide line, the non leader of Honolua/Act Now then gets flushed out. Winner is Honolua/Act Now depending on who gets what run and the race tempo.

[Messenger]

It sounds pretty feasible to me Brendan

Having a look at the way the race times jump around for the meeting you can see that even on our premier night Sky1 cannot make us a priority

I drove past Melton at 1pm today and there was a traffic jam on the turn off - saw a sign that said Public Event, too early for Inter to be the cause AND I hope the event is all over now as there have been problems getting into the track on big nights

[Messenger]

Not long home and the weather looks threatening at the Gap but I think the beautiful weather should continue at Melton

[Messenger]

It looks like Act Now might start favourite as he is into $3 and Honolua is out to about $4
Plenty of money for Ego too as he is into $5.50 (no money for Louis or Shadow)

One thing against Act Now is barrier 3's terrible record (worst of first 9 slots

[Messenger]

On TrotsVision Dan's calls sound terrible tonight - they sound alright on racing.com BUT the picture quality of racing.com is ordinary compared to Vision

The crowd shots on racing.com look promising

[Messenger]

No Brittany interviews for anyone except Sky by the look of it

[Messenger]

The coverage could do with a female, we have 3 men on the panel, 2 men wandering around for interviews, we even had Bruce McVaney, the legends series they are showing has 3 male legends and Rob Auber doing the interview
3 races down and I think we have seen Shannon O'Sullivan once
The wandering interview with Bruce McVaney was cringe-worthy when after interviewing Greg Sugars, they mentioned Jess Tubbs is the trainer and then WALKED RIGHT PAST HER

[aussiebreno]

The coverage could do with a female, we have 3 men on the panel, 2 men wandering around for interviews, we even had Bruce McVaney, the legends series they are showing has 3 male legends and Rob Auber doing the interview
3 races down and I think we have seen Shannon O'Sullivan once
The wandering interview with Bruce McVaney was cringe-worthy when after interviewing Greg Sugars, they mentioned Jess Tubbs is the trainer and then WALKED RIGHT PAST HER
I think they had a script to get to Sugars and Justice being ex SA (McAvaney home state) and then Stewart being leading trainer. McAvaney did say congratulations to her.

[aussiebreno]

Despite having the option to not race and back up from the tough ID series, Longfellow clearly didn't back up. Got to the chair easy and they didn't run along very quick but he had nothing to give in the straight. All horses are different but if the signs during the week pointed to him being right to back up, it makes you wonder how the others from the stable are going to go.

[Messenger]

The best horse wins the trotters final - congratulations Just Believe. I cannot think of a driver I would rather have than Greg Sugars

Brittany was outstanding on Majestic Harry. 5th is what she realistically dreamed of and she did it (I had a little something on him at $33 the place after he got his Golden Ticket)
Financially it seems a little out of whack that the winner collects $142,500 and fifth gets $6,250

[aussiebreno]

The best horse wins the trotters final - congratulations Just Believe. I cannot think of a driver I would rather have than Greg Sugars

Brittany was outstanding on Majestic Harry. 5th is what she realistically dreamed of and she did it (I had a little something on him at $33 the place after he got his Golden Ticket)
Financially it seems a little out of whack that the winner collects $142,500 and fifth gets $6,250

Agree. Good to see a result where the best horse wins.

[Messenger]

On the Vic TAB, Honolua Bay is out to $4.20 while Expensive Ego is into $4.80. Act Now is $3.10 fav

[Messenger]

Michael Guerin adamant that Spirit Of St Louis can cross Act Now - big ask when he is right next to him
Then he seems equally adamant that he hands up to Expensive Ego - as if Act Now is going to allow that
He is far more an expert than me but I cannot see it

[Messenger]

I am being a sore loser but BLOODY CHEATS LANE

LOL stupidly had a saver on Honolua and for a second there, I thought he was going to cost me the $11 Act Now the place (from Brendan's futures tip)

[aussiebreno]

Is there any plausible reason for the 28 2nd qtr and 26.4 3rd qtr? When you have Torrid Saint running past you theres problems. Had it won at the 1200m. Had it lost by the 400m.

[Messenger]

Yes, I would have liked to see Greg Sugars driving him

[aussiebreno]

Yes, I would have liked to see Greg Sugars driving him

If only there was a driver like Nathan Jack available.

Thats an absolute minute of madness from the 1200m to 400m. Now we're left with a sprint lane and 3 fence going in folklore in the history books for the quinella.

[Showgrounds]

Is there any plausible reason for the 28 2nd qtr and 26.4 3rd qtr? When you have Torrid Saint running past you theres problems. Had it won at the 1200m. Had it lost by the 400m.

Well, I don't know what the lead time was but they appeared to dawdle. Typical for a big Group One drivers lacked courage. The track had nothing to do with it, had it been run on Sandown Park or Broken Hill the result would have been the same. Risk-averse drivers ensured the race was one to forget as a spectacle. Too many either overawed or just accepting of earning a losing drivers fee.

The last 1200 metres was a sprint to the death, nothing could come wide from the rear.

The Stewart and McCarthy runners were all disappointing and I wonder why. Torrid Saint! Hasn't he come from nowhere, C'mon the Mighty Saints! His owner and I are St Kilda tragics well conditioned for disappointment. Being runner up is like a win.

[Messenger]

When the punt is everything the pseudo trotters consolation is a worry - even at this level, how can a serious punter trust they will get a run for their money

[Messenger]

Compared to Tiger Tara's Tk Rec for 2760m (when he led all the way in the Hunter Cup), they certainly did dawdle the lead time in the pacers final, 6.4 sec slower while the last mile was about the same but more even
6.4 secs = 84m

[Messenger]

From the TrotsVision coverage, amazing to see a fair percentage of the Melton crowd hanging around until the last (weather must be good) as when I have been to big nights, the mass exit after the big races has been most noticeable

[aussiebreno]

My take

Honolua $2.80 Either straight in running line or first crack at the lead. His Kilmore Cup run was almighty and he won't have to do it as hard this time around. With Act Now form horse of the heats.
Act Now $4.50 You're greatest strength begets your greatest weakness. Can see him working too hard early with too great a field chasing him not Bundoran this week. Fingers crossed for a sit because he showed in the mile heat he can run on strong with the best of them.
Shadow $8.00 Fantastic draw. Only a month ago beat Honolua in sub 1.49 from off them. Everyone wanted to jump off Mach Dan because he got beat in just outside track record time at Ballarat. Well Shadow only got 5m in track record time, the run wasn't as bad it looked with him paddling the final 100m.
Mach Dan $8.00 Of the horses who aren't in the possible category he is going to get the best run. Won't have to use petrol tickets so if those possible leaders use up early fuel Mach Dan will be best placed to swoop.
Ego $9.00 Unless the early lead battle stings too much and Luke can time his leadership attack perfect its hard to see him winning. Just too hard from the death. Will be thereabouts though.
Prince $17.00 Has had a good series but this price just reflects the cushy run and less distance covered.
Zuess $21.00 Will get straight into the running line, use no early petrol and could give some cheek late
Eclipse $21.00 Will have to come around them all when I viewed his best chance as sitting leaders back. Don't think he is good enough to do that.
Louis $21.00 There is no lead there and I can't imagine in the horses best interest to try. Can't see him getting near the horses who lob leaders and leaders back unless the speed is really on but in that case MD and others would run past Louis.
Bundoran $26.00 Going to have to come around them all. Admittedly almost knocked off the top 2 seeds in the past 2 heats but those big guns had more than enough reasons to be fading. Even if race rune to suit MD, Zuess, Louis etc still too good for him.
Delight $31.00 Similar run to MD who is better.
Pete $101.00 Was relegated to the 2nd tier FFA just 2 months ago.
Think I would have done pretty well here as a bookmaker. Shadow half the price, horses like Mach Dan and Ego over their starting price.

[Mighty Atom]

Michael Guerin adamant that Spirit Of St Louis can cross Act Now - big ask when he is right next to him
Then he seems equally adamant that he hands up to Expensive Ego - as if Act Now is going to allow that
He is far more an expert than me but I cannot see it

Yep, Michael Guerin was also adamant that NSW racing and horses were far superior to Victoria he mentioned it twice a Kiwi know it all I would suggest.

[Mighty Atom]

Jason Grimson the only trainer with a bigger bag of tricks than Emma Stewart when it comes to the big ones.

[Messenger]

Think I would have done pretty well here as a bookmaker. Shadow half the price, horses like Mach Dan and Ego over their starting price.

It is easy for me to say this with hindsight but as well as blowing the opportunity to make it a 600m race, would Jodi have also had a better chance if she had made it a 2760m race, it would seem that Shadow is a pretty good mile horse

[Messenger]

I just noticed that the Consolation MR was a full second quicker - the quinella could have been very competitive in the Final.
Crime Writer backing up in the Stawell Cup today

[aussiebreno]

It is easy for me to say this with hindsight but as well as blowing the opportunity to make it a 600m race, would Jodi have also had a better chance if she had made it a 2760m race, it would seem that Shadow is a pretty good mile horse

Possibly but if she couldn't judge speed for those 2nd and 3rd quarters how was she supposed to judge speed for 2760m.
Made it a 2500m race last week and Bundoran nearly ran him down who had the running line and come wide not the sprint lane like Shadow had.
I'm not sure Shadow has a distance preference either. Gone 1.53 over 2300m. Failed at mile in ID Heat. Grimson horses keep running. You cant train speed but you can train stamina (albeit if you have more stamina you can show that speed).

[Yabbie]

The public event sign was for the ID (3pm till midnight) - at around 4pm they started directing traffic - no right hand turn into Tabcorp Park - you had to go down to the float entry and do U turn to come back to the normal car park entry.
Traffic was very heavy early in the day - not sure why but when I arrived around 4, traffic was not too bad.

[Messenger]

The public event sign was for the ID (3pm till midnight) - at around 4pm they started directing traffic - no right hand turn into Tabcorp Park - you had to go down to the float entry and do U turn to come back to the normal car park entry.
Traffic was very heavy early in the day - not sure why but when I arrived around 4, traffic was not too bad.

Were they stopping every car once they entered Melton Carol? (maybe not at 4)

[Showgrounds]

I would be interested to know the on-track attendance but HRV tends to treat this as a state secret. On TV it appeared good by Melton standards although nothing comparable to the 37,000 at the Valley for Preaux Chevalier's win.

[Messenger]

I have been to some big nights this year and done a rough count by pushing a lap inside and out and a very big night would be 5,000 at Melton
With free admittance, I imagine the only other way to calculate attendance would be a count by the parking attendant (who, when I have attended, stopped every car) or a door counter

[Yabbie]

sorry don't know the answer to that one :)

[aussiebreno]

Sportsbet have the top 3 ID point scorers Honolua Bay, Act Now and Mach Dan at $41 each for the Miracle Mile. Ladbrokes go as far as $61 for Mach Dan. Even Ego and Louis are $15 each with Ladbrokes. Outrageous. Too far out to load up but a couple dollars eachway wouldnt hurt.

Crazy prices confirmed!

[Messenger]

I think they are set by Josh Jenkins

[aussiebreno]

i think they are set by josh jenkins

hahahahaha!

[Messenger]

Serious, my son-in-law works for Sportsbet

[aussiebreno]

Serious, my son-in-law works for Sportsbet

If he does, they might need to rethink that appointment.