Vic Cup Carnival including Derby and Oaks

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Oaks and Derby Heats are up

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX011022

Only 2 Derby heats but how Hot is the first heat - some good horses are going to miss the final

Emma Stewart has 12 in the Oaks (3 heats) but only 3 in the Derby

Act Now and Better Eclipse are resuming in the Smoken Up Sprint

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They do only need to qualify and it seems amazing that Captain Ravishing has opened $1.40 while Leap To Fame is $2.90 in Ht.2 of the Derby

1.Just Hope ($4.40) 2.Petillante ($6.00) 3.Encipher ($1.35) in Ht.1 of the Oaks has made it a race for 4th for the others

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Maybe the market priced in the fact that Leap To Fame has to get to Melbourne!

https://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=54170

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Unfortunately, after two Oaks heats, the change to the longer 2760m distance has resulted in these races being run as 800m sprints

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Ah Ht3 was much better / more genuinely run

[aussiebreno]

That was like Kate watched the Oaks heats and had a pre meditated plan without paying attention to the race pace.

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And the boys really know how to put on a genuine race!
Happy with the photo result as I talked myself out of Ripp (thought he was incredible odds for a horse that was touted as the next big thing after his first 6 starts)

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Stating the obvious but the draws for the Oaks and Derby are going to be massively important
Yes, Captain Ravishing is sensational but he is green and he will still be green next week, which gives the others a chance

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Captain Ravishing was originally knocked down to A.Portelli for $80k at the 2020 APG yearling sale. I bet they wish they had completed the sale
Earlier this year he was listed as racing for APG
It would be interesting to know he landed with Hassan Taiba

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Bondi Lockdown last in the Smoken Up - his run only lasted 100m.
He isn't a shadow of the horse we saw back in Feb

[Showgrounds]

Captain Ravishing was originally knocked down to A.Portelli for $80k at the 2020 APG yearling sale. I bet they wish they had completed the sale
Earlier this year he was listed as racing for APG
It would be interesting to know he landed with Hassan Taiba

A person at the sale saw the horse knocked down to a person who may have born a strong resemblance to Mr Taiba.

[Showgrounds]

Bondi Lockdown last in the Smoken Up - his run only lasted 100m.
He isn't a shadow of the horse we saw back in Feb

If the Victoria Cup were a dinner menu and I was appraising it my comments would be:

Lochinvar Art - burnt beyond recognition
Bondi Lockdown - overcooked
Copy That - was expecting something rare but served up well and truly done.

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A person at the sale saw the horse knocked down to a person who may have born a strong resemblance to Mr Taiba.

What do you mean Trev?


Am I just being thick and you mean "my cousin's friend's boyfriend once ......"

[Showgrounds]

What do you mean Trev?


Am I just being thick and you mean "my cousin's friend's boyfriend once ......"

Oh, it's so simple.

The horse was sold at the APG sales to a man, or woman, that looked like it's current owner. Obviously it wasn't him or her because the APG recorded the sale to A. Portelli. A. Portelli could have been representing Australian Pacing Gold as that company was the owner when the horse won its first three starts when trained by A. Taiba. Never having raced a horse previously APG may or may not have been advised to send the horse to the brother of the bloke / chick who resembled the person the horse was knocked down to. Are you still with us Kev?

Perhaps the original trainer's brother punted the hell out of the Captain the first three starts and, realising APG had at least 14 horses the same age a buyer had welched on, made the company an offer it couldn't refuse. A little like throwing a rope to a person up to their shoulders in quick sand. No doubt all parties are suitably delighted with the outcome.

That's my simple view of it.

[aussiebreno]

Bondi Lockdown last in the Smoken Up - his run only lasted 100m.
He isn't a shadow of the horse we saw back in Feb

That was hard to watch.

[Messenger]

Oh, it's so simple.

The horse was sold at the APG sales to a man, or woman, that looked like it's current owner. Obviously it wasn't him or her because the APG recorded the sale to A. Portelli. A. Portelli could have been representing Australian Pacing Gold as that company was the owner when the horse won its first three starts when trained by A. Taiba. Never having raced a horse previously APG may or may not have been advised to send the horse to the brother of the bloke / chick who resembled the person the horse was knocked down to. Are you still with us Kev?

Perhaps the original trainer's brother punted the hell out of the Captain the first three starts and, realising APG had at least 14 horses the same age a buyer had welched on, made the company an offer it couldn't refuse. A little like throwing a rope to a person up to their shoulders in quick sand. No doubt all parties are suitably delighted with the outcome.

That's my simple view of it.

As a moderator I certainly appreciate that one has to be Very careful of what they post.
Daylight saving switch always knocks me around But I am definitely not with it (we now even have a chick as a possible bidder!)

What I don't understand in this hypothetical, is if the said horse was knocked down to a person 'representing' A.Portelli or the APG who looked like the current owner ...
Nah, I just don't get how A.Portelli is involved - it is not a fictitious name - it is a licensee's name

It would certainly be strange if a brother of the original trainer was the actual bidder on behalf of A.Portelli and it fell through, you would not think APG would be giving the horse to his brother to train
Unless the brother had the horse at his stable since the sale and the APG had not reclaimed the unpaid for horse.
But you would not think the APG would allow it to race IF they were planning on reclaiming him like they did for other unpaid for horses
Maybe he was partially paid for?

Wait a minute, I remember that one of the owners of an A.Portelli purchase told me they were paid in full by APG but then again maybe all payments are going to say APG

Do the APG accounts show that they received prizemoney for those first 2 wins
It would all make more sense if A.Portelli was bidding on behalf of the current owner
Too tough a hypothetical for me

[Showgrounds]

I only had too wait a little under 24 hours for my suspicion about Copy That to be confirmed:

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/minor-bleed-leaves-copy-that-in-some-doubt-for-vic-cup/

Just like Lochinvar Art's "virus", before they pushed on with his campaign and blew a poofer valve. These "minor" issues continue to be only a hair's breath away from a catastrophe. Fingers crossed for the horse but these issues when combined with a ho-hum performance rarely have a happy ending.

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And the inside story. Lasix, anyone?

https://www.lincolnfarms.co.nz/stories/scope-on-thursday-will-decide-if-copy-that-contests-victoria-cup-after-minor-bleed/

Interesting that a number of horses had hair samples taken for testing last night. Long term substances can be detected in the follicle, it seems HRV is getting fair dinkum.

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Yes, I noticed the HT hair test next to quite a few Trev.
As for Copy That. People claim that those in the industry love the horses
I reckon half of them only Like horses and Love money more
What has happened to erring on the side of caution - which has to be what is best for the horses
I am becoming very disenchanted - I suppose the word 'industry' is half the explanation

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In many ways our crowded Group One and feature race calander will contribute to te attrition rate of our top horses. The point Ray Green makes about so many horses having blood in their lungs is valid but advocating for lasix will not necessarily alleviate the problem. And he is dreaming if he thinks that will happen.

This horse had one start in NZ after a nine-month injury enforced spell prior to its well publicized tour of duty being announced. Over to Victoria for the Victoria Cup, fly to Christchurch for the NZ Cup and FFA then fly back to Melbourne for four runs in fourteen days in the ID. Lochinvar Art was pencilled in for the same races. All fine in concept.

Then, things didn't progress so sweetly. Lochinvar Art had a first-up gut-buster over the sprint trip, the winner (Torrid Saint) rating 1:51.7 which would have given his lungs a fair workout. A fortnight later the horse runs poor eighth having used all its petrol by the apex of the home turn. A day later the stable announces the horse had a lung infection but they pushed on, raced the horse (which may have set a world record for recovery) two weeks later. The horse blew a poofer valve and has run his last race on our shores.

Copy That’s preparation is not much different but with less severe consequences- so far. A gut buster first up saw him beaten 21 metres in the Gp1 Caduceus Classic but a soft run on the busted Lochinvar Art's back saw him win the following week. The stable boasted in days after the race the horse had an elevated white cell count.

https://www.lincolnfarms.co.nz/stories/copy-that-won-despite-having-virus-last-start-so-whats-he-going-to-do-to-them-on-saturday/

See any similarities to the Lochinvar Art disaster yet? And then came last night. Oh dear.

Also note the Allstars Stable have no horses nominated for the Inter-Dominion. The scheduling and stakes don't make it an attractive option. With the NZ Cup ($600k) and NZ FFA ($200k) six weeks away the stable's old stagers Spankem and Self Assured ran second and third first up on Friday night. Both were nice runs and not gut busters.. in the new year there will still be the Hunter Cup and Miracle Mile to be set for.

Unfortunately all these carnivals crammed into two months tend to cloud judgement and owners and trainers all get stars in their eyes. Or dollar signs. The only thing harder than managing horses is managing expectations.

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I tuned in a bit late to the draws (missed Derby?)

Here is the Oaks draw - I like it

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The Vic Cup

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The Derby

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Post-race veterinary and endoscopy examination of Bondi Lockdown ($12.00 – 10th) revealed the horse to have bled present from both nostrils. In accordance with the mandatory provisions of Rule 101(3), Bondi Lockdown will now be stood down from racing for a period of three 3 months, until a veterinary clearance is tendered and Bondi Lockdown trialling to the satisfaction Stewards.

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/stewards-reports/stewards-reports-detail/?mc=MX011022

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The horses coming out of 1-4 in the Cup (with Emerg out) are the only ones given a chance

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/the-numbers-the-analysis-your-group-1-vic-cup-field-breakdown/

I expect the Derby and Oaks over the longer journey to be crackers

[aussiebreno]

Tough Tilly any other year would be a champ. Ladiesinred will do better for the run.

While a couple might have threw it away, great to see Plymouth Chubb win a major 3yo race.

Leap To Fame unreal. I guess it was the obvious tactic after last week but both horse and driver needed to be good enough to execute and they were.

Not the most testing Vic Cup ever. Can't fault the top 4 or even the rest of the beaten brigade apart from Ego who went horrible. Honolua Bay @ $34/$9 for ID looks overs. Got to give more confidence to Magnificent Storm to come over for the ID as well knowing theres no out and out Grand Circuit stars, currently $31.

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It has been a great night here, the weather even got milder the longer the night went
I am possibly being generous but the crowd may have approached 2,000 - not that all are harness fans as some had left before the Cup
The last two 2yo Gp2’s should maybe be on another night as barely a quarter of crowd still around after Oaks

Backed ‘Doo’ as I saw him win last time I was here and knew he was the real deal
I will post more when I have a keyboard but the other highlights were Leap To, seeing that Plymouth is really back, School Captain smashing the 2yo Tk Rec

[aussiebreno]

I think the result has been blown out of proportion with expectation now on Doo. It was just about the slowest Vic Cup at Melton while Honolua Bay worked early and got beat less than a length. Doo ID fave, Honolua $26 doesnt add up to me. Ego stopped in Better Eclipse/Copy That face so how they were mathematically supposed to reaccelerate and win I don't know how. Even those two are $12+ in the ID. I'm not sure any proof was garnered that any of the four are better or worse than each other. Three starts back despite the draws Doo was $34 and Bay was $2.25. It seems a pretty big overcorrection to me.

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I don't know that there is much between the four either Breno but the big thing is that Doo is now one of the four,
I think Doo may be sensational if he got Butt, Alford, Lee in the cart (3 accomplished drivers without commitments elsewhere)
I am actually warming a little to Mick Stanley - I think the TrotsVision segment helped BUT he isn't really a media type IMO. He must have had some media role early in the evening (did not see him on TrotsVision replay but it did not start until R2) as he easily won best dressed in an excellent suit

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Interesting to read in the Stewards Report that it was through making contact with Plymouth Chubb's wheel, that possibly caused Harry Stamper to break when threatening

James Herbertson, driver of Harry Stamper NZ, was fined $200 under Rule 168(1)(a) for contacting the offside sulky wheel of Plymouth Chubb approaching the 200m resulting in the gelding trotting roughly and breaking gait a short distance after.

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/stewards-reports/stewards-reports-detail/?mc=MX081022

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If you look at extra ground covered for 2nd to 6th in the Derby (Race 6) in the Sectionals
Then you could make a case for all of them in comparison to Leap To Fame
The mathematics is a bit challenging to accept
(The Blue is 'supposedly' how far they would have been in front of him if they all ran the same course)

[aussiebreno]

I think the result has been blown out of proportion with expectation now on Doo. It was just about the slowest Vic Cup at Melton while Honolua Bay worked early and got beat less than a length. Doo ID fave, Honolua $26 doesnt add up to me. Ego stopped in Better Eclipse/Copy That face so how they were mathematically supposed to reaccelerate and win I don't know how. Even those two are $12+ in the ID. I'm not sure any proof was garnered that any of the four are better or worse than each other. Three starts back despite the draws Doo was $34 and Bay was $2.25. It seems a pretty big overcorrection to me.

Confirmed big overs Honolua Bay!

[aussiebreno]

Gets even crazier looking at the Hunter Cup result the difference between RNR Who and Honolua Bay