2023 Bendigo Cup, Maori Mile & Jason Grimson

[Messenger]

Both the pace and the trot $75k this year

The trot is a cracker and Rock N Roll Doo in the Cup makes it interesting - he has drawn 1 - I do not know whether this is a good thing or not

I can never remember whether Max Delight or Malcolms Rhythm is the fast beginner

It would not be advisable for Jason Grimson to win with Sicario in his first start for the stable

I don't really follow NSW and don't know Art Tutor and wonder why a horse who could only win 2/28 last season is down here

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN070123

[Showgrounds]

For Grimson to even consider running Sicario in the Cup smells more than my wheelie bid did after Christmas Day, with my apologies to the wheelie bin, because prawn she's are not a performance enhancing substance.

[Messenger]

The TAB is keeping Sicario very safe - he is 3rd favourite (!) at $8 and has come in from $10

Major Meister the stablemate is $3.40 having drifted from $3

RNRDoo has firmed from $2.25 into $2

[Showgrounds]

I confess to having been a long-tiime fan of Sicario, who had earned a quarter million before being bought by his Victorian owners as a 4yo. He fell just short of being a topliner in NZ but was highly competitive running 2nd in the Northern Derby, 3rd in the NZ Derby, won the Flying stakes and sat in the death outside millionaire Alta Orlando to win a FFA as a 3yo.

So, no slouch. A vastly superior performer when he arrived at Brent Lilley's stable compared with ID winners Boncel Benjamin, I Cast No Shadow and Cranbourne Cup winner Major Miester, pre-Jason Grimson. Here is the link to Sicario's race record pre-Lilley:

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=HorseStarts&Arg=hrnzg-HorseID&Arg=B2A9DA50-01E2-4428-B429-BB6E57DA9175&Arg=hrnzg-PerformanceType&Arg=A&Arg=hrnzg-RaceType&Arg=O&Arg=hrnzg-DoSearch&Arg=TRUE&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

He ran a shocker first up for Lilley but was super impressive winning the SA Cup a week later. Gradually, the ability he displayed when trained in NZ was diluted. In the subsequent four years he has gone from being a very nice horse, to a handy horse to just a horse. I blame his decline on any or all of the following assumptions:

1. The trainer's inability to place the horse in a field to its advantage; or
2. Too many owners who just like to see the horse race whenever they can; or
3. Continuing to put Chris Alford on the horse when his tactics seem to amount to taking a sit and hoping the rest of the field falls; or
4. The horse, like so many older ones, suffers from internal bleeding and cannot backup its races (which brings all four factors into play with the decision to run the horse I the Inter-Dominion series more peculiar).

So, following three second-last performances in the Inter, two of the owners have bought out the others and given a share to new trainer Grimson. Whether Nathan Jack is an improvement on Chris Alford remains to be seen but I reckon Grimson is a better trainer than Lilley. For one, he will get the old boy fitter. But would you be taking $8 in this field?

With natural improvement and a favourable draw I expect the horse to finish 4th to 6th place. Any better than that and, once again, I suspect unnatural force are at work.

This will be a must-watch race for many reasons.

[Messenger]

Thanks for giving us something interesting to ponder Trev
You have watched the horse and have a much better memory than me
I do note however that if you look at the Stewards Column for all his performances he would seem to have been given his chance by drivers
Here is the link to type Sicario into (direct links do not work)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?search

I have never done any research on this so it could be true of all horses but it would seem that when he races in the first 5 he tends to finish in the first 5 (it does sound like something that could be generally true for most)
Drivers would not seem to have done too badly on him with him winning or placing 45% of the time

However 11 of his 23 wins came from his first 24 starts before going to Lilley for 12 wins from 84
We know very few horses keep up their juvenile strike rates but on those figures in hindsight you would probably have given another trainer a crack earlier

His worst patch of form has been these last 3 Inter heats - out of his depth? (Mind you he drew awfully in all 3)
Maybe we will see on Saturday

[Messenger]

Has Jason Grimson ever had a starter at Bendigo?
His career stats have him as 100% unplaced at Bendigo

[Messenger]

Rock N Roll Doo has a big campaign ahead of him, including the $1m NZ Grins

https://harnesslink.com/new-zealand/aussie-star-confirmed-for-1-million-race-by-grins/

[Messenger]

Mick Stanley cannot go around telling 2 different stories and be believed

“They are saying that it’s not an ideal draw for him as he doesn’t have the gate speed to hold the lead from the pole,” Stanley said.

“One night at Melton he held out a couple of fast beginners in Cherokee Joe and Spring In His Step from the pole, so there is gate speed there if needed."

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/much-adoo-about-nothing-stanley-shrugs-off-bendigo-gate-debate/


“For lots of horses it would be perfect, but it’s probably the one draw I didn’t want with him,” Stanley said.

“Of all his qualities, (early) gate speed isn’t one of them, not yet at least.

https://harnesslink.com/australia/barrier-draw-main-danger-to-star-pacer-rock-n-roll-doo/

This is such a contradiction of quotes - the stewards should have a word to him

[Messenger]

Sicario is now into $5.50

[Messenger]

5 starts ago he was beaten by Bernie Winkle in a Claimer (and remember the four starts since have been 11,11,11,7 )
Bernie is in the Cup too - he is $126

[Showgrounds]

We are living in an alternate universe but don't realise it. Mick Stanley's big plans for The Doo follow the horse's dismal NZ Cup campaign and a well-beaten third in the Cranbourne Cup. In NZ, he became the daily rent-a-quote but his horse couldn't walk the walk as fast as Mick could talk the talk. Now, he's at it again. Do you reckon the horse can beat the likes of Copy That, Krug and Self Assured around Cambridge?

The wild card for The Race by Grins might be Sicario!

[Messenger]

Sicario is now into $5.50

Stablemate Major Meister has blown from $3 to $3.90

[Messenger]

We should not forget that

Sicario is the 5th richest in the race with earnings of $522,846 from 108 starts

A Gs White Socks 4th with $597,564 from 85
Triple Eight 3rd with $623,401 from 97
Bernie Winkle 2nd with $629,192 from 277
Max Delight 1st with $795,360 from 72

[Messenger]

Sicario is now into $5.50

at his four previous starts he has been $151 $151 $151 $101

[Messenger]

Does anyone know where Jason Grimson is based when in Vic?

[Messenger]

PP has this to say about it

This comes from PP's subscription only blog, details of which can be found here

https://peterprofit.com/subscribe/

NB PP is most definitely NOT everyone's cup of tea and so if considering you might do well to begin with just a 1 month sub

[Messenger]

Sicario now into $4.50

The Stewards must issue a please explain - no matter how he performs

Remember form is 11 - 11 - 11

Started $151 - $151 - $151

[Messenger]

I wish I was at Bendigo - it looks like a perfect night

[Messenger]

Early finish tonight with the last at 9.35 - surprising

[Messenger]

The win by Major Meister was ridiculously good. He comes so wide after making contact with the retiring Rock N Roll Doo and still wins while Sicario found another leg
Maybe the Stewart/Tonkin stable are thinking of the US to avoid Jason Grimson!

[Messenger]

Very interesting to hear the interview with one of MM's owners and the way that he sang Jason Grimson's praises as a Horseman. He is only 29 by the way
Are some people (myself included) off the mark in finding his success/turnaround stories hard to believe?
Although I still stand by post 17

Is he superior to the recognized horsemen that had his charges before him

[Messenger]

The win by Major Meister was ridiculously good. He comes so wide after making contact with the retiring Rock N Roll Doo and still wins while Sicario found another leg
Maybe the Stewart/Tonkin stable are thinking of the US to avoid Jason Grimson!

Looking at it again
There is no doubt MM's was a fantastic win after losing his momentum when he ran into the back of Doo
Maybe Sicario's was not that special, even if a big improvement for him
The reason I say this is that the last half was run in about 59 secs - when Code Bailey set the record 3yrs ago, they came home in 55

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN030120#BNC03012001

[Showgrounds]

No, I am not Nostradamus but I stand by every word I wrote in posts 4 and 11 of this thread.

Grimson's quinella suggests every other trainer in the game is a mug. While that is only a suggestion it confirms those in charge of enforcing "integrity" in harness racing are miles off the pace, just jogging along quietly pinging trainers whose horse may have of spent a few days munching on a treated pine or creosote soaked fence post. The scale of the problem has been blatantly exposed for all to see in the Bendigo Cup.

At least the stewards both pre-race and post-race swabbed the winner and runner up. They should have done more, like a surprise stable inspection and swabs earlier in the day to, at least, rattle the cage. And I would have sent a couple of stewards and a vet home with the horses for the night.

I've written enough about good old Sicario, let's look at the winner. It's form since leaving Adam Kelly on 5 November is 1st at Ballarat in 1:52.9 by 12.6 metres on 26 November (21 days later), 1st in the Crabourne Cup by 8.7 metres in 1:56.7 on 17 December (another 21 days later) and the Bendigo Cup - another 21 days later! These are facts, not conjecture, and tie in precisely with PP's protestations and prognosises over the past year and a half. Remember, if you follow his work, the key is 21 days.

Just a coincidence? I'll give you the tip, I've been involved and followed the game closely for 52 years and I have never seen a coincidence like it. If you are smart enough to read what I have written, you are intelligent enough to draw your own conclusion. I haven't bet on the horses for years but I bet your conclusion is the same as mine.

As for Rock N Roll Don't I am looking foward to reading an interview with Michael Stanley that he is setting his horse The Paddock by Frowns.

[Showgrounds]

An apology and best wishes to Michael Stanley. I have just learned that RRD may have choked down. As a result of the horse being pulled up the eventual race winner ran into the back of the cart and struck Mick hard in the back. I believe he was transferred to hospital after the race. I hope all is well and it is just bruising, but it would be similar to being hit by a car. Good luck Mick, wishing you a speedy recovery.

[Messenger]

I watched TrotsVision to the end despite the delay before the last but I did not catch the final sentence from Michelle Phillips when interviewed by JB
PP is reporting that she said "All you taught me was how to speak shit"
Can anybody verify that that is what she said LOL

[Messenger]

Very interesting to hear the interview with one of MM's owners and the way that he sang Jason Grimson's praises as a Horseman. He is only 29 by the way
Are some people (myself included) off the mark in finding his success/turnaround stories hard to believe?
Although I still stand by post 17

Is he superior to the recognized horsemen that had his charges before him

Here are part-owner Jon Canestra's actual words

Part-owner Jon Canestra said he long felt Major Meister had the ability to reach his current heights.

“In the early days we did. We knew we had something,” he said.

“We then had to geld him to try and see if we could get that more out of him, and he just lost his way.”

Canestra also heaped praise on Grimson, who continues to amaze with his record of improving tried horses.

“His passion for horses and his love for horses is unbelievable. How he went to his feet, how he fed him, how he trained him completely different.

“I remember when he won at Yarra Glen, he had this action that was just like cutting daisies. We saw it again at Cranbourne two weeks ago and we saw it again tonight.

“He’s living up to the potential we thought he had.”

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/epic-performance-lands-meister-another-major-prize/

[Messenger]

Jason Grimson has always had a good strike rate - even when he was 22yo
I thought I once heard a commentator say that he went off and did concreting for 3yrs but looking at his stats, if this was so, you would think it had to be when he was a kid

(I am making an addition to the title of this thread so that we can find the discussion in the future)

[Messenger]

A highly relevant question asked is: Why did Boncel Benjamin go back to being a plodder when he left the stable - didn't his connections see the magic being performed/weren't they told what tweeks worked?

[Messenger]

Is he really 29yo?

Just Who Is Jason Grimson?

is a must read

https://harnesslink.com/australia/just-who-is-jason-grimson/

Dont Think Twice was a 15/16 season 2yo, Grimson's first year of training and when he would have been 22yo

He did 5yrs of concreting in Canberra away from horses so that must have been when he was a 16-20yo at the latest as he worked for other trainers in the Riverina when he gave concreting away then he had a year with Jarrod Alchin in Sydney before going out on his own

“He (Grimson) was just a natural horseman. You could see it straight away and people talked about it who’d worked with him (in the Riverina),” Alchin said.

Amazing statement when you think how little time he had with horses (other than as a pre-teen) - this is starting to sound like the makings of a screenplay

Dont Think Twice was his first horse - a Gp1 - Grimson must have shown something for the owners to give her to him, especially a well bred 2yo

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/horse-search/?horseId=787788

Here is a John Tapp article on Jason's partner (still?) Brooke Wilkins, who if you opened the Dont Think Twice link you would see was the trainer of the horse for a while

https://www.johntapp.racing/trots/2018/12/11/brooke-wilkins-is-inspired-by-the-deeds-of-her-dad-and-a-grandfather-she-never-knew

There would obviously be a lot of knowledge coming from her too

[Messenger]

I am doubting that Brooke Wilkins is still Jason's partner
She trains out of Cardigan and had Celestial Fragrance in R2 last night

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN070123#BNM07012306

[Messenger]

Here is the man speaking himself (rare) during the Queensland campaign mid year
Click on the video

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/news/july-2022/jason-grimson-the-new-kid-on-the-big-stage

[Messenger]

A mid year article by Adam Hamilton

https://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=53491

“I think you’ve got to have your horse happy and you’ve to know how to do that,” he said.

“I work every horse myself … I do every fast work on them.

“I’ve just got that sense where I can feel if a horse feels really good. It’s just the little things they do.

“Take Majestic Cruiser for one. He’ll always have his eyeballs popping out of his head and his ears forward wanting you to brush him. That’s when you know he’s right.”

Grimson talks about his horses, especially those he’s closest too, more like friends than horses.

“Majestic Cruiser keeps getting better and better all the time. He wants to try for you now, if you know what I mean,” he said.

“He’s definitely my favourite. I’ve become quite attracted to him.”

“I’ve got about 25-30 in work now, but, if anything, I’ll cut my numbers down,” he said. “When you’re as hand-on as me, keeping your numbers down is crucial. “I want to keep my numbers small and target the big races.”

The article finishes with quite a bit on Fire Fox who is in today's Cobram Cup. It is another distance event for him even though Grimson says he is not a stayer

[Messenger]

An Ex poster sent me something that states that Grimson stays at Ahmed Taiba's

[Messenger]

Mick Stanley update

[Showgrounds]

Cardigan. Isn't that where another leading stable is based?

[Messenger]

More than one - Stewart/Tonkin and Stanley for openers. The harness side of Ballarat and one day, as was the case with some old Melton stables, the prime land will one day make them bigger millionaires

[Adaptor]

More than one - Stewart/Tonkin and Stanley for openers. The harness side of Ballarat and one day, as was the case with some old Melton stables, the prime land will one day make them bigger millionaires

David Barbetti is there too.

[Messenger]

Looking at it again
There is no doubt MM's was a fantastic win after losing his momentum when he ran into the back of Doo
Maybe Sicario's was not that special, even if a big improvement for him
The reason I say this is that the last half was run in about 59 secs - when Code Bailey set the record 3yrs ago, they came home in 55

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=BN030120#BNC03012001

Although the finish was slow, I knew the Lead Time was faster but I did not realize just how fast until Toohard let me know it was 1.52 pace for the first 1,041m

[Messenger]

There was no QIP for Sicario's performance in the Cup
Tonight at Geelong Our Art Christian also first up for a new stable (actually back to his old stable) coming off almost identical form and odds as that of Sicario and starting the same odds - gets a QIP
What is good for the goose is good for the gander

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE110123#GEC11012306