2023 NSW Miracle Mile Carnival

[aussiebreno]

Last night we had the Hondo Grattan which Republican Party from NZ won with ease. That qualifies him for the Chariots in a fortnight. Also qualifying last night was Captain Ravishing with his win in the 4yo Bonanza. Not sure if Lightning Dans 2nd in the Hondo qualifies him too.

Next week in the Paleface I hope we see Leap To Fame, Catch A Wake and Akuta but not sure of their movements? They probably the 5 realistic winning chances for the Chariots.

The winner of the Chariots get free entry to the Miracle Mile.

Last night B D Joe also made an appearance at Menangle after being in form in NZ over the past few months so he adds another element to the carnival.

Early final field prediction

1. Captain Ravishing (Chariots win)
2. Act Now
3. Honolua Bay
4. Mach Dan
5. Bondi Lockdown
6. Spirit of St Louis
7. Expensive Ego
8. I Cast No Shadow

Nothing is ever predictable about the Miracle Mile though and I could be wrong in just 9 days as possibly none of these horses will even show up for the Newcastle Mile.

[Messenger]

We have the Paleface Adios Stakes (Catch A Wave drawn 2nd line) and the Sibelia Stakes on Saturday plus Bondi Lockdown going around again in R7

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC110223

[aussiebreno]

10 off front. Wave front line once emerg come out.

Pretty thin Chariots this year. Looks like only 3 realistic winning chances. Ravishing, Wave and Rep Party.

[Messenger]

Thanks Brendan, I forgot how big Menangle is

[Messenger]

I dislike watching youtube stories - can someone tell me what is the Big M they are talking about

https://nationaltrotguide.com.au/all-systems-go-for-the-mm-at-the-big-m/

[Messenger]

I wonder how often Kate Gath has driven at Menangle?
Clicking on her career stats tells us she has a 19% win rate, 17% place rate and 63% unplaced BUT it does not tell us how many races this is for

[Messenger]

Taking a line through Heza Son Of Agun, Catch A Wave might be a long way behind Captain Ravishing

[Messenger]

We don't have to worry about LM on the experience front

There have always been huge wraps on both Catch A Wave and Bondi Lockdown
Neither had good draws tonight and I am starting to appreciate how important draws are even on this big track
CAW was never going to win from where he was with the last Q being run in 26.8
The difference between being 1x3 and 1x5 was massive

On that 2nd up run you have to say Bondi can break 1.50
As for the Wave, we don't know for sure

Braeview Kelly has the measure of the other mares

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC110223

[Theoldfox]

BONDI can go well below 1.50... last year in the Chariots 1.47.6 whilst wide on the track. Give him the rail and he'll go 1.47 at full fitness. We don't know how fit he is, Luke has looked after him on both runs. The main difference since he changed stables is the driving style.


We don't have to worry about LM on the experience front

There have always been huge wraps on both Catch A Wave and Bondi Lockdown
Neither had good draws tonight and I am starting to appreciate how important draws are even on this big track
CAW was never going to win from where he was with the last Q being run in 26.8
The difference between being 1x3 and 1x5 was massive

On that 2nd up run you have to say Bondi can break 1.50
As for the Wave, we don't know for sure

Braeview Kelly has the measure of the other mares

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC110223

[Messenger]

BONDI can go well below 1.50... last year in the Chariots 1.47.6 whilst wide on the track. Give him the rail and he'll go 1.47 at full fitness. We don't know how fit he is, Luke has looked after him on both runs. The main difference since he changed stables is the driving style.

Yikes, how could I forget that one

[aussiebreno]

Bondi amazing to peel off them with that final qtr.

Ripp $6.33 place. Will obviously be deductions if he to get a run but he can lob leaders back in the Chariots and fill a hole. Silly price for mine.

[Messenger]

The Chariots market

[Messenger]

Captain Ravishing has never started from No.1
He generally begins well without them looking to rush him but rather work to the lead
I think it will take a very quick one to get past him
I have always been a fan of Ripp and he has good gate speed but it would be easier if he was not right next to him
Heza A Son Of Agun has good speed and could possibly cross but that may only be if Ripp does Not get a start
Mahomes is no slouch

[aussiebreno]

Ravishing has the Chariots at his mercy.

Newcastle Mile B D Joe v Mach Dan with B D Joe continuing his good run of draws the past 6 months. A few other nice ones in it that can cause some headaches.

[Messenger]

Mach Dan cannot crack a good barrier

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=NR170223#NRC17022308

[Messenger]

Mach Dan classes above them

[Messenger]

Going on the TAB, Menangle would all seem to be back one race - the radar looks pretty nasty

[Messenger]

Back 2 races now

[Messenger]

Back 3 races

[aussiebreno]

They have amended race times so not quite back 3 races.

I don't see the point in running the first two.

Make sure Oaks, Chariots and Robin Dundee get run as a priority.

[Messenger]

Back 3½ races

[Messenger]

They have to stop leading with Tay Tay and save her for the home straight, she hasn't got the heart for leading but she does have a fantastic sprint

[Messenger]

The Wave does it parked. The Captain runs good time but that is the bubble burst - I know this sounds like a cheap shot but heart is everything

[aussiebreno]

Catch A Wave simply outstanding. I didn't think he had it in him to do that. Used off the arm from out wide, no respite and puts in a q.49 on a night where the track may have just been playing a little bit slower than what is normal.
We seen what the early speed did to Tims a Trooper and Heza Son of a Gun. They've gone 1 sec, 1 sec, 0.6 secs quicker than Tay Tay for the 1st 3 qtrs so given times and those two mentioned beaten margin I wouldnt be writing off Ravishing, and it shows Catch A Wave is grand circuit ready.

[Messenger]

Sunday morning and it is HRV that has the Chariots write up. Nothing on HRA homepage and HRNSW's latest news is 'Who Will Lead In The Chariots?' (from Friday)

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/catch-a-wave-stuns-the-captain-to-win-a-classic-chariots/

Of course Harnesslink has a story too

https://harnesslink.com/australia/stunning-upset-in-250000-chariots-of-fire/

[Messenger]

Kate learnt a lot from last week - there was no going back if you wanted to win

[trish]

A brilliant drive from Kate. Smart move to go leaders back, small breather, then see ya . He is a real good horse.
Mr Profit tipped CAW, thank you , I listened.

[Messenger]

Following Tough Tilly’s win, the field for next weekend’s Queen Elizabeth II Mile was released.

The field will be made up of Amore Vita, Braeview Kelly, Delightful Angel, Fairy Tinkebell, Madrid, Punt Away, Stylish Memphis, Tay Tay, Total Diva, Tough Tilly with the two emergencies Tangoingwithsierra and B K Swy.

https://harnesslink.com/australia/pitt-grinds-out-a-tough-win-with-captaintreacherous-mare/

[Messenger]

Here is the Oaks pre barrier

[Messenger]

Noms for the NSW Derby

[Messenger]

The fields are out

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC250223

No luck for Soho Seraphine in Oaks (nice for Fantasy and Peaceful)

No luck for Tilly in Queen Elizabeth (but Tay Tay draws 1 again and has Sugars on)

[aussiebreno]

Not sure how Jay Ok rating 119 won Gp3 mile 5 starts back misses a run to Rep Party, Pinny Tiger and Tasty Delight who have all had a prior chance to qualify and havent won an open age race of such significance.

[Messenger]

Yes, looking at that field, I was thinking - can 888 even break 1.50
He probably did when he ran 8th in this race last year beaten 21m by Spirit Of St Louis (1.48.2)

Yep, did the maths - that would have been 1.49.6 for 888 and he had a good draw and run

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC260222#PCM26022209

[Messenger]

How different our code is to the gallops - where the states are at war
For Saturday night, Melton has an all trot night so that everyone will tune into Menangle ;)

[Messenger]

We have the Pink Bonnet for 2yoF on this super program too
Lux Aeterna is understandably a short favourite
But (if I was watching instead of at a wedding) I would be interested to see if either of
Colin McDowell's beautifully bred first starters is supported
Both have drawn poorly but Candlelight is from the Dancer line not Bolero who is one of the Obahmas and a ½ sis to the ill fated Soho Lanikai

[aussiebreno]

Best final 800m at Menangle since Quinny ID by Honolua Bay.

Bondi and Ravishing to get the extra 2 invites for me. A salivating field. Would give Stewart 4 and McCarthy 3. Vic 5 v NSW 3

[Messenger]

Does Braeview get an automatic?

No, it is only Newcastle and Chariots plus tonight's two Quinellas
So that means Braeview gets it easily before Bondi IMO and Captain Rav the other

[aussiebreno]

I went early crow. Braeview deserving if a spot and got it.

Bondi should be Em1 though. They've tone fastest 3rd without taking into consideration the maths of a 25.8 final qtr

[Messenger]

I liked MM's run for the MM better :)

[Messenger]

It seemed to me that a couple of NSW's young gun drivers were a bit casual when it came to safety last night
I thought Jack Callaghan SOSL checked Hurricane Harley when after losing the lead he came off the pegs
and Jack Trainor seemed to squeeze up Is This Just Fantasy in his attempts to get Sky Blu onto the pegs instead of the death in the Oaks

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC250223

[Messenger]

The mighty Pure Steel was the ground breaker in 1978 before being joined by the incomparable Popular Alm in 1983.

Preux Chevalier followed suit in 1985, with Village Kid (’86), Christen Me (2014) and King Of Swing in 2020 and 2022 rounding out the ‘Super Six’.

https://nationaltrotguide.com.au/markets-suggest-bay-can-join-immortals-in-miracle-mile/

Just look at the immortal company Honolua Bay will join if he completes the MM and xxxxx Hunter double

[aussiebreno]

Hunter Cup/MM Double it would be

[aussiebreno]

Pole has undone Ravishing and Bondi past 2 weeks. Louis could suffer same fate.

Honolua probably going to get a charmed run. Deserves favourite.

Been a trend of 4yos performing well in this race lately. Fresher legs with the week off. However Louis only went 1.52 so horses from that heat wont have a back up concern. While I think Honolua had a bit in the tank so I'm not concerned with his ability to back up.

[aussiebreno]

Who drives who?
Ravishing - Pitt
Honolua - Moran
Harley - Jack?
Mach Dan - Turnbull???

[Messenger]

I think I read it somewhere and Turnbull is Harley

Yep

Stewart confirmed stable driver Mark Pitt would stay with Captain Ravishing, David Moran will drive Honolua Bay and Amanda Turnbull will partner Hurricane Harley. No driver has been locked-in for Mach Dan as yet.

https://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=60187

[Messenger]

What does Captain Ravishing do from that draw?
I think we will find out if he can sit of the speed and come home like Honolua
As impressive as Catch A Wave was and his ideal prep
I find it hard to go past Honolua

[aussiebreno]

What does Captain Ravishing do from that draw?
I think we will find out if he can sit of the speed and come home like Honolua
As impressive as Catch A Wave was and his ideal prep
I find it hard to go past Honolua

I think he has to go back and just sprint home.

Ego is interesting for me. Lacks a brilliant sprint so maybe they are better off coming forward.

Some have Harley leading. I think he is better off getting Louis back.

Catch A Wave to come forward.

Braeview for mine should go back - too high a risk getting caught wide outside Catch A Wave. However if they did press forward, as well as Ego it could put Honolua back to near last which isn't great.

[Messenger]

Ego definitely goes forward start or early, he is going really well but you just cant seem him being able to race the way he does and beat all the brilliant ones
If Harley goes to lead it is hard to see him copping serious pressure (Ego) and winning so do they hand up?
Maybe Ego grinding Harley and Louis getting out is the way the McCarthys could win
If Harley was to hand up which Stewart horse would he hand up to? Mach Dan could be dangerous
Like you I was a little surprised at Catch A Wave's outstanding Chariots, never doubted he was A+ grade, if he can back up and his prep has been perfect then even a place makes him a A+++ (now a A++)
No matter where Honolua ends up he runs a place for sure - he was always brilliant now he is strong and brilliant (that is where I have my doubt about Bondi nowadays - is he still both?)
I see Louis placing but not so much winning

[Messenger]

The MM is down for 8 o'clock - that is pretty early for R8 or is that for TV

[Messenger]

Wrong again Kev, I have looked at last year's sprints and MM and Louis could definitely win but like Breno, it is hard to know whether the one alley is an advantage to him

[Messenger]

On Vic TAB
Honolua still fav at $2.90
while Capt Rav has firmed a whole point into $3.50
and Catch A Wave has drifted out to $4.40

[gutwagon]

I think Stewarts will be able to control the race and set it up for HB or CR to win ! If they don't use team driving I think Spirit will win.

[Messenger]

Mach Dan is going to tackle Spirit for the lead big time but I do not consider that team driving, if he however hands up to one of their other runners, it might be considered so

[Messenger]

Emma has told us how they hope to position

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/emmas-big-guns-out-to-produce-a-miracle-at-menangle/

[aussiebreno]

Best final 800m at Menangle since Quinny ID by Honolua Bay.

Bondi and Ravishing to get the extra 2 invites for me. A salivating field. Would give Stewart 4 and McCarthy 3. Vic 5 v NSW 3

10 years to the day today. Memory of that race is still quite vivid though.

[Messenger]

Captain Ravishing has eased a little to $3.80 and I would not be surprised to see him ease further
Every one of his wins he has led or death-seated, that won't be happening tonight and as much as I am looking forward to him being driven with a sit we don't know how that will go
He ran well last week, I do not think we can make excuses, he was simply beaten by one better on the night
He has a tough draw in a race where you can't have any bad luck
I am by no means suggesting he has fallen away like Doo did but the same 'sit back and observe' rule applies again IMO

What I would really like to see is for him to come out and break the Tk Rec - it would be great for our sport

[Messenger]

In the feature trot, it will be interesting if Caligula pushes on to the front and sets a 1.53 pace
I know Menangle is a faster track but none of the fancied Vics have gone anywhere near that fast
The $26 pop Credit Master has - this time last year

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC040323#PCM04032304

[Messenger]

2 years ago Just Believe ran 5th beaten 16m in a heat of the Southern Star at Melton over 1720m won by Tornado Valley in 1.53.1
So you would think he can go sub 1.53 now

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX050221#MXM05022110

[Messenger]

So how do we watch the Miracle Mile tonight - is Sky the only option?

[aussiebreno]

So how do we watch the Miracle Mile tonight - is Sky the only option?

I think Sky Racing Active doing a 2hr feature.

[aussiebreno]

https://www.skyracing.com.au/read/Harness/79053

"This year enthusiasts are hoping to see another miracle, with the dream being a serious assault on the world record 1:45.4.

At minimum, the 1:46.9 Australasian record – set in the 2018 Miracle Mile - is expected to tumble given the speed of the elite eight-horse field."

Who is expecting it to tumble? Sure its a possibility buts barely an expectation.

[Messenger]

Yep that is a nonsense. I think the chances of a Tk Rec blew out the door when Captain Ravishing did not draw to go to the lead and bowl along. I cannot see anybody else setting the pace he might have set

[Messenger]

It is an outstanding program
It is great that HRNSW have every race on the program worth $25k+
The Derby should be a cracker, it would have been nice to have First Responder and Petracca racing but the talent there to take on Alta Meteor should give us a bit of a guide as to how our boys stack up against the NZers who did not come

[Messenger]

Better Be The Best - he just might be

[Messenger]

Catch A Wave makes it official - He is a Great horse (but a little psycho)

First Four drawn 4 - 1 - 3 - 2

[Messenger]

Spirit Of St Louis 2nd for the second year in a row

[Messenger]

1.48.8 Brilliantly rated by Kate. Tough horse to run 25.5 Q1 and still find 26.2 for Q4
The placegetters spaced the rest
Fantastic run by Honolua - must have run well below 26 when wide for last 400m

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=PC040323#PCM04032301

[aussiebreno]

Good to have a new star on the block. Deserving winner with that lead time and ability to find something again final qtr/half. Andy Gath was talking entry to Vic Cup and Hunter Cup and tbh I thought that talk was a shade premature but one of the best (or best) horseman of his generation knew what he had.

Would have loved to see Honolua peel out from the 1-1 when they slackened though.