Just Believe - Elitloppet 2023

[Messenger]

Yes, we are putting it here
Well no doubt many of you have been following the trip
Barrier 7 - it makes it tough over the mile

https://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=61120

[Messenger]

Jess is going over

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/jess-off-to-join-greg-and-harry-in-sweden-ahead-of-elitloppet/

and so is Luke

https://harnesslink.com/australia/champing-at-the-bit-and-ready-to-call-the-elitloppet/

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/humphreys-just-cant-wait-to-fulfil-his-elitloppet-dream/

Humphreys will call the entire Sunday meeting from Solvalla for Sky Racing, with Just Believe’s heat scheduled for 11.28pm AEST and the final set down for 1.45am AEST.

It could be a late night for all of us back home

[Showgrounds]

Jess is going over

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/jess-off-to-join-greg-and-harry-in-sweden-ahead-of-elitloppet/

and so is Luke

https://harnesslink.com/australia/champing-at-the-bit-and-ready-to-call-the-elitloppet/

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/humphreys-just-cant-wait-to-fulfil-his-elitloppet-dream/

Humphreys will call the entire Sunday meeting from Solvalla for Sky Racing, with Just Believe’s heat scheduled for 11.28pm AEST and the final set down for 1.45am AEST.

It could be a late night for all of us back home

A big night of sport on Sky and Fox Sports, I'll be watching the heat and final with the Monaco F1 Grand Prix in between.

[Messenger]

Luke's Form Guide

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/elitloppet-wholl-advance-luke-humphreys-verdict/

As we know, all but one are drawn inside him including the last two winners

Even the our home TAB has him absolute outsider of the field

https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2023-05-28/H/Harness%20Futures/Elitloppet%20(All%20In)?futures=true

[Messenger]

An interview with Kima

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/why-all-the-fuss-toc-discusses-elitloppet-experience-with-kima/

You see Stockholm on the map but it isn't until you really zoom in that you understand its geography

[Messenger]

Just Believe's Best MR 1.55.5 converts to 1.11.8 in KmR
These Europeans have KmR of 1.08.8
He will do well to not be distanced on those figures

[Showgrounds]

Glad we got rid of the km rates after sticking with them for a few years. They made no sense at all.

[Theoldfox]

Just Believe's Best MR 1.55.5 converts to 1.11.8 in KmR
These Europeans have KmR of 1.08.8
He will do well to not be distanced on those figures


...but that's not the full picture. he breezed at Menangle when second in 1.52.6 some 6m from the winner. That is significantly faster than a KmR of 1.11.8, its under 1.10 from the breeze. The banking at Solvalla makes cornering fast even though it isn't as big as Menangle, it's like a velodrome. He won't be distanced but the draw is very cruel as he needed all things going his way. Hopefully they go crazy early and he can get past half of them with an economical run and qualify for the final and draw the inside. If they don't go hard early in the heat and he's out the back it's a long trip home to Australia.

[Messenger]

...but that's not the full picture. he breezed at Menangle when second in 1.52.6 some 6m from the winner. That is significantly faster than a KmR of 1.11.8, its under 1.10 from the breeze. The banking at Solvalla makes cornering fast even though it isn't as big as Menangle, it's like a velodrome. He won't be distanced but the draw is very cruel as he needed all things going his way. Hopefully they go crazy early and he can get past half of them with an economical run and qualify for the final and draw the inside. If they don't go hard early in the heat and he's out the back it's a long trip home to Australia.

Yes, very remiss of me TOF, I normally look for fast non wins
1.53 is 1.10.2
That was the run that convinced them to go - it was by far his best time

[Messenger]

What a massive anti-climax

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/elitloppet-heartbreak-as-just-believe-finds-late-trouble/

[Theoldfox]

What a massive anti-climax

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/elitloppet-heartbreak-as-just-believe-finds-late-trouble/

Quite disappointing. Would have run 5th in my opinion. Greg, though understandably shattered, should not be too hard on himself. It was the draw that destroyed his chances to qualify for the final more than anything else. One thing is for sure, he wasn't outclassed, looked to be bolting though expended energy for zero outcome at the start. If he had drawn 1,2,3 or 4 I think the discussion now would be very different.

I also think it's a bit odd that we all discuss the "Europeans" and "American" trotters as some sort of superior breed to Just believe...He is by a French stallion and a USA mare...He is basically one of them!

[Messenger]

Yes, nothing went right from the moment he drew 7, strangely if he had persisted with the forward move a fraction longer, he may have found room to drop into the 1x1 as a gap opened up there when Etonnant put a bit of pressure to the leader

I hope the stable still take some positives out of the trip and quickly move on as "Ah that's racings" - fairytales are generally preceded by plenty of disappointments

[KTQ]

Did anyone see the video of when they opened the gates to spectators? AMAZING. People running in like it was a 99% off BMWs sale: https://twitter.com/i/status/1662729304952676352
And the trainer/driver introductions, also just A class: https://twitter.com/i/status/1662763775756324864

Wouldn't it be lovely to see this type of interest in Australia

(credit to Travronden and Ryan Phelan for the videos)

[Messenger]

Yes, Katie - fantastic footage

ps I believe Luke Humphreys used his holidays and paid for himself to go. I would hope that HRV/TrotsVision and Sky chipped in something after making good use of this dedicated young man

[Messenger]

Pride amid pain
This is good to read

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/pride-amid-pain-as-aussie-makes-believer-of-europeans/

[Messenger]

How is it that there were no USA trotters in the race? (Is that right?)
None invited?
None accepted? ($460k US not enticing?)
Non European invites limited? (And Australia's turn this year?)

Disregarding the US import Propulsion (winning 2020 import later disqualified for Nerving/Neurectomy. I notice the most recent of the USA's 3 winners was in 1998

[Messenger]

Funny how this Harnesslink article got the result wrong

Go On Boy (7m Password) was third at 10.2/1 for Romain Derieux

https://harnesslink.com/europe/hohneck-wins-elitloppet-in-record-tying-time/

He sure did finish at a rate of knots

[Messenger]

Another bad draw for Just Believe (that the visitors get stitched up)

Just Believe will step out in the Jämtlands Stora Pris at 2.20am AEST this Sunday, with the race to be shown live on Sky Racing.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/another-wide-barrier-draw-for-just-believe-in-sweden/

[Messenger]

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/just-believe-warms-aussie-hearts-with-slashing-third-in-sweden/

3rd to Just Believe (stupid me, obviously confused by the long weekend, thought it was tonight)

The winner Hail Mary is a serious horse (Her sire has unusual breeding)

https://classicfamilies.dev/details/HLMR10216952

[Messenger]

Just Believe’s final European test is shaping as his greatest, with the Victorian trailblazer to bout with Swedish star Francesco Zet, who’s drawn to advantage and chasing a 14th consecutive win.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/watch-sugars-and-just-believe-ready-for-finale-against-swedish-phenom/

A poor article (not all of us are into watching news), the link to TAB tells us that Francesco Zet has drawn 1 while Just Believe has 5. No mention of the distance.

[Messenger]

6.46 Sunday morning will be a big stretch

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/just-believes-last-euro-race-to-show-exclusively-on-trotsvision-sunday/

[Messenger]

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/incredible-just-believes-brave-brilliant-swedish-second/

An excellent gutsy 2nd sitting in the death.
You might want to watch the replay with the audio off - the call, obviously made for us, is sickeningly over the top

[Messenger]

The following horse profile is not really accurate

“Given his siring ‘credentials’ at the time neither foal was registered, but they are out there somewhere at pony club or trail riding land, unaware of there now famous dad."

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/the-forum/wharton/wharton-the-unraced-offspring-of-our-new-international-sensation/

It would be interesting to track them down. (I hope they really are somewhere - I think I am right in thinking that proposed new legislation would make this easy if it was to happen now)

[trish]

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/racing-future-of-champion-trotter-in-limbo

[Messenger]

Hmmm. Is this an injury setback or is his future in doubt - the story seems dramatic without providing any detail