Country Cups 2023

[aussiebreno]

Battle lines drawn in the Maryborough Cup. I can see an Act Now loss I'l be blaming Jodi and a RNR Who loss Kev will be blaming Stanley ��

[Messenger]

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MH170923#MHC17092301

One of the two has to win. Should be close
With the extra run under his belt, I fancy RNRD

[aussiebreno]

Act Now scratched.

[Messenger]

VIC - Maryborough 17/9/23 Show Me Heaven NZ / Act Now - Withdrawals & Investigation
16 September 2023

Harness Racing Victoria (HRV) Stewards advise that Show Me Heaven NZ and Act Now have been withdrawn from their respective engagements in Race 3 and Race 7 at the Maryborough race meeting to be conducted on Sunday 17 September 2023. Both horses have been withdrawn in accordance with the provisions of Australian Harness Racing Rule (AHRR) 196B (3).

The scratchings relate to a stable inspection being conducted by HRV Investigative Stewards at the registered training establishment of Emma Stewart on Saturday 16 September 2023 and circumstances of an intravenous drip being administered or attempted to be administered to the aforementioned horses within one (1) clear day of the relevant race meeting in contravention of the provisions of AHRR 196B (1).

As an investigation remains ongoing into this matter, no further comment will be made at this time.

https://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=62397

[Messenger]

The Cup really missed Act Now - it was no contest for RNRDoo
(Big 4th from Treachery)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MH170923#MHC17092301

[aussiebreno]

A case study of Curly James, beaten margins and Vic Cup prices

RNR Who beat him 1.3m and is $3.50
Better Eclipse 3.5m $21
Bulletproof Boy 3.4m $151
Sahara Tiger 5.3m not listed - $1001 if it was
Can't Top This 3m not listed
My Ultimate Ronnie 3.9m $126
AGs White Socks 1.9 not listed
Jilliby Dynamite 8m not listed
Betterzippit 3.8m & 17.9m $81
Serg Blanco went down a head to Curly and is $151

Spot the odd one out here?

We then use Spirit of St Louis leading at Menangle Mile and horses drawn gate 8 who covered ground early to work to the death. RNR Who did just that and was able to beat Louis by a short half head. Star Major did the same thing and got to 1.9m of Louis. That puts RNR Who about a 2m better horse than Star Major. Star Major was $151 the other night let alone what he would be in a Vic Cup. It just doesn't stack up.

Now I don't actually think RNR Who is only 2m better than Star Major hence the italics BUT it goes to show the way the races were run sprinting home in low 26s and a blanket finish that you can't actually take anything out of it. Which brings me to my point that it is ludicrous that people have watched the Len Smith mile and wound into $3.50. If Leap to Fame decides to stay home he could be touching odds on. Just poison unders.

[Messenger]

You need to stop the RNR Who - you would kill for a horse as good as him :p
As for the unders and overs - in just about every race with a Stewart favourite you see the same thing. Admittedly they generally win

[aussiebreno]

You need to stop the RNR Who - you would kill for a horse as good as him :p
As for the unders and overs - in just about every race with a Stewart favourite you see the same thing. Admittedly they generally win

I'd also kill for one to just make the bloody races at this point :p

[aussiebreno]

Kilmore Cup and we get as good a chance as ever to see if RNR Who can justify his short Vic Cup quote (& put egg on my face) as he is probably going to need to sit outside Act Now.

Act Now the charmed draw in 1 and so to Better Eclipse to follow him out in 8. Thats a logical quinella for mine and I excpet the top 3 will dominate the market.

Maybe Curly James chances his arm at the start and makes something of the race otherwise it could be a procession until the final 400m.

[Messenger]

Michael Stanly might (in my dreams) decide this is not the Grand Final, lets go back at the start and come 3 wide down the back straight the last time. If it works - great, if it doesn't - we still have the GF. Of course if the Stewart team crawl in front, he will come around and park

The Field

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI290923#KIM29092301

[aussiebreno]

Michael Stanly might (in my dreams) decide this is not the Grand Final, lets go back at the start and come 3 wide down the back straight the last time. If it works - great, if it doesn't - we still have the GF. Of course if the Stewart team crawl in front, he will come around and park

The Field

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI290923#KIM29092301

Doubt Act Now will be crawling

[aussiebreno]

Michael Stanly might (in my dreams) decide this is not the Grand Final, lets go back at the start and come 3 wide down the back straight the last time. If it works - great, if it doesn't - we still have the GF. Of course if the Stewart team crawl in front, he will come around and park

The Field

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=KI290923#KIM29092301
https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/great-race-expected-as-mick-looks-to-doo-it-again-at-kilmore/

Yep he is gonna go full Mick Stanley

“I’m on the best stayer in the race so I’ll be out to make it a true staying test, but I’m also conscious that it could make my horse vulnerable late to a horse like Better Eclipse,” he said.

[Messenger]

With GF eve being a public holiday nowadays - I wonder whether Kilmore could not make more of an event out of a Day meeting?
(The gallops main meet for the day is at night)

[Messenger]

Outlaw Man may have been an interesting runner if he had got into the Kilmore Cup after winning the consolation (shorter distance) sitting parked and smashing Captain Ravishing's Tk Rec

[Messenger]

Well, an old dog can learn new tricks. Michael Stanley was not interested in giving RNRDoo a gutbuster. As it turns out, he could probably have had a reasonably easy run if he had gone to the death which is what makes a great driver does - goes to Plan B. Mick isn't a great driver and he has a pre-race plan and doesn't adapt.

[aussiebreno]

Better Eclipse a smart horse and capitalised on the run.

Beyond Delight rocketed home (entitled to off the run but that was a sharp sprint).

Act Now disappointing. Zip isn't his go but 26.8 from in front he should have had the zip still.

RNR Who got full Mick Stanley'd. Would want to win the Vic Cup having the audacity to use a Gp2 $75K Kilmore Cup as a trial after being quoted during the week as saying he would make it a staying contest.

[aussiebreno]

Well, an old dog can learn new tricks. Michael Stanley was not interested in giving RNRDoo a gutbuster. As it turns out, he could probably have had a reasonably easy run if he had gone to the death which is what makes a great driver does - goes to Plan B. Mick isn't a great driver and he has a pre-race plan and doesn't adapt.

You've worded that nicer than what a lot of people are probably feeling right now!

[Messenger]

But unless a top driver was specifically told NOT to go to the death (other than simply being told not to gut him), a top driver would have snuck around to the death and the 2 leaders could have continued to crawl. I have always thought that with Stewart and Stanley pretty much neighbours that they are probably pretty close.
Mick seems old school to me - since when do we take trainers and drivers at their word

[aussiebreno]

Just watching replay. Treachery probably disappointing

I know he stuffed around first 800m and Tough Tilly is a tough mare but RNR Who barely got past her so despite the circumstances I would still say slightly disappointing.

[Messenger]

I don't think RNRDoo was disappointing
Bruce Edward owns 2nd, 3rd & 4th

The second start in a row that Tough Tilly has swished her tail in the straight

[Messenger]

Geelong would be happy with this field for the Cup on Saturday night

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GE211023#GEC21102301

[aussiebreno]

Does anybody remember RNR Who being overraced and getting tired 12 months ago? Here he is backing up after he was virtually the only horse in the Vic Cup that peaked on their run (LTF and Better Eclipse the others). Sure I would expect him to lead and win this, but how will he be travelling in December Inters?

[Messenger]

An interesting point Brendan. I don't know that this is quite the same although I agree that an easy month at home followed by a run mid November - a fortnight before the Inter would be the preferred program IMO. Also he usually has a fortnight between runs.
Last year he went off after an ill considered standing start campaign in NZ. He came back and ran 3rd in the Cranbourne Cup and then failed/was retired from the Bendigo Cup, which should most definitely have been the end of his campaign and a signal/memo that they had gone on too long but instead they had two more runs!
You would think they may have erred on one less not one more this time (unless they are not planning on contesting the Inter)

[aussiebreno]

Pop

[Messenger]

????????????????????????

Does that mean it has burst for Mach Dan too?
Their runs were pretty much the equal of each other

Did Michael Stanley do something to you Brendan?
Remember you rated Mach at 7 and RNRDoo at 9. Has that now changed after a farcical Cup where the Lead time was slower than that of the trotters from the Stand

[Messenger]

Congratulations to the Zavitsanos's (locals)
Mach Dan has now had 5 starts at Geelong for 4 wins in not just any old races
- 2 Geelong Cups
- 1 Interdominion Heat
- 1 Flying Brick Rocket
(his unplaced run was death seating in another Geelong Cup)

[aussiebreno]

????????????????????????

Does that mean it has burst for Mach Dan too?
Their runs were pretty much the equal of each other

Did Michael Stanley do something to you Brendan?
Remember you rated Mach at 7 and RNRDoo at 9. Has that now changed after a farcical Cup where the Lead time was slower than that of the trotters from the Stand
Not about Stanley just about the industry rating him top or top 2-3 when he clearly was never. Also yes he mathematically had no chance last night - but that never seemed to matter to other horses he beat in past!

[Messenger]

You will have to explain the image (?)
So you have a problem with the horse?
Well not really, more other people's ratings of him - so get stuck into them, not the horse
ps Not too many horses that he has beat in the past, could complain as he has generally sat in the death

[aussiebreno]

Above image = stirring the pot

So far the horse hasnt responded to my forum posts but those who rated the horse too highly have ��

The two best wins from the death were Vic Cup and Len Smith. Vic Cup was mathematically impossible for 2nd-4th who were all equal runs and Len Smith was mathematically impossible for anything behind him and Louis was disappointing. Cant remember where he sat Kilmore Cup last year but Honolua Bay was run of the race by a mile. So yes others could complain.

[Messenger]

Has Dan Mielicki contacted you!

How can these horses connections/drivers complain when they have the option to go to the death before him or take the death off him
He sat 3 wide for half a lap of the Kilmore Cup before pushing on to the lead - would have seemed vulnerable if something had the balls to pressure him

He is in the 10 best horses in the country. We think we know who the top 2 are and by the end of the year we may have a better idea of the order for all of them

[Messenger]

Terrible when the 2790m Swan Hill Cup turns into an 800m sprint
The Lead time of 92.1 was 1.6 secs slower than the Trotters Cup AND THAT WAS A STAND START
(The trot was however a Tk Rec)

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=FD031123#FDC03112301

[Messenger]

Focusing on the positives - that was some win by Keayang Ignite in the Trotters Cup
This horse is SOME story
That was only his 8th start
He had 4 starts as an early 3yo for 4 wins - with the change of season dates, those wins would now be credited as 2yo wins
He then has nearly 4yrs off the scene
Now has 2 wins and 2 thirds since coming back

[Messenger]

Perfect Stride started fav in the pacing cup but seemed to put in a shocker
PS has only won 2 races in the last 30 months - he wouldn't seem to be a winner nowadays

[Messenger]

Old poster Nathan Cahir was Owner/Trainer/Driver/Winner of the St Arnaud Cup today

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SA051123#SAC05112301

[Messenger]

Captain Ravishing in the field has certainly created a bit of interest in Thursday's Yarra Valley Cup

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=YG091123#YGC09112301

[Messenger]

Curly James scratched is a big loss for the YV Cup

[Showgrounds]

Captain Raviishing went like a pricked balloon. All sizzle, no sausage.

[Messenger]

VERY disappointing field for the $30k Stawell Cup on Sunday
There is a NR58, 59 & 60 in it = ridiculous
The emergency must have been a late acceptor as he is a NR75

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SW031223#SWC03122301

[Messenger]

Half the horses engaged at Melton on Saturday night would have been better off entering the Stawell Cup and racing for more
This has been a massive vote against Stawell IMO

No Stewart horses at either meet

Melton fields

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX021223

[aussiebreno]

You would think they go back to NR120 and keep it there next year

[Messenger]

Perfect weather for the Stawell Cup today

[Messenger]

Well it was an excellent race and a new track record so I know diddly squat

ps In the trotters cup, One Over All absolutely smashed the Tk Rec after coming off 50m

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=SW031223

[Messenger]

Maybe I was not that far off the mark:

“I didn’t think it was an overly strong cup, having said that the speed needed to be on and that’s just the way he loved it and they just ran the race exactly for him to win it,” she said.

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/gaths-big-day-topped-off-with-stawell-cup-glory/

[aussiebreno]

Yeah it wasn't overly strong. Have they done the track up because I note race distances have changed slightly? That time is significantly faster than what a few good horses have ran over 2600m. Races can be run differently etc but wouldn't have expected this years to be such an outlier for a fast time.

[Messenger]

It was once 2590m - a few years ago it became 2600, maybe when the sprint lane went in or the bends got better banking (not sure whether these both occurred at the same time)

[aussiebreno]

Does anybody remember RNR Who being overraced and getting tired 12 months ago? Here he is backing up after he was virtually the only horse in the Vic Cup that peaked on their run (LTF and Better Eclipse the others). Sure I would expect him to lead and win this, but how will he be travelling in December Inters?

RNR Who now Scratched.

[Messenger]

Makes sense, not going well and not going to qualify