Victoria Cup Carnival 2023

[Messenger]

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/the-forum/hamilton/hamilton-the-race-to-the-victoria-cup-gates-on-in-earnest/

What a race it would be if they all come!
Draws are going to be SO important
Should Captain Ravishing get a start w/o racing? If the horse is so iffy that he cannot race once or twice you really have to wonder what he is doing racing at all

[Messenger]

Derby and Oaks heats on Saturday night
Only 24 noms for C&G's and Fillies so far

[aussiebreno]

Captain Ravishing was nommed for Smoken Up Sprint but is not in the final field. I wonder why

[Messenger]

Captain Ravishing was nommed for Smoken Up Sprint but is not in the final field. I wonder why

I am thinking that he is so unsound that he can only run once a month

Thankfully Catch A Wave has drawn 8 otherwise it was all over

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX071023#MXM07102301

[Messenger]

Only 2 heats of Derby and 2 heats of Oaks
They have made an emergency for the Oaks heats - I used to think that any 3yoF who wanted to contest it would get a start, obviously not

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX071023

[Messenger]

I notice we are not racing on the half hour - are we no longer the main meeting of the night?

[Messenger]

Who gets a start?

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/who-gets-a-start-victoria-cup-nominations-revealed/

ABOUTTIME - J R (Jason) Grimson

ACT NOW - E J (Emma) Stewart

AMORE VITA NZ - E J (Emma) Stewart

BETTER ECLIPSE - J A (Jess) Tubbs

BETTOR BE THE BOMB - S L (Sonya) Smith

BEYOND DELIGHT - E J (Emma) Stewart

BUBBA SCRUB NZ - J R (Jason) Grimson

BULLETPROOF BOY - S L (Scott) Ewen

CAPTAIN RAVISHING - A (Ahmed) Taiba

CATCH A WAVE - A P (Andy) Gath

ENCIPHER - E J (Emma) Stewart

HI MANAMEISJEFF NZ - J R (Jason) Grimson

HONOLUA BAY - E J (Emma) Stewart

HOT AND TREACHEROUS NZ - M J (Jack) Butler

LEAP TO FAME - G W (Grant) Dixon

LOYALIST NZ - J (Joe) Conolly

MACH DAN - E J (Emma) Stewart

MAX DELIGHT - D (David) Aiken

NERANO NZ - J R (Jason) Grimson

OUTLAW MAN NZ - A P (Andy) Gath

ROCK N ROLL DOO NZ - M I (Michael) Stanley

SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS NZ - B J (Belinda) McCarthy

TAIPO NZ - B M (Brad) Hewitt

TANGO TARA NZ - A P (Andy) Gath

TIMS A TROOPER - G W (Grant) Dixon

TREACHERY - E J (Emma) Stewart

YAMBUKIAN - A P (Andy) Gath

Who are the last two?

[aussiebreno]

I wouldnt be giving Amore Vita guaranteed status. Open age racing is different to Age/Sex racing. 8th in BAF and this is a much stronger field.

Mach Dan and Beyond Delight should be in the field for mine. MynameisJeff probably get a gig too

[Messenger]

True but I don't mind if a couple like Mach Dan miss to give someone new a chance

MynameisJeff cannot possibly win according to HRA

[Messenger]

Hi Manameisjeff really only has one sensational run/time to his name. He beat little in the Melton Plate last year and if it wasn't for the fact that Grimson's horses can grow an extra leg I could not put him before Amore. I don't think he deserves a run on one run

[aussiebreno]

True but I don't mind if a couple like Mach Dan miss to give someone new a chance

MynameisJeff cannot possibly win according to HRA

Different horse. I'm not fussed either way, do lean towards him getting final spot but also mindful hasnt proved himself against better echelon yet.

Mach Dan won 2x Inter heats. 4th in Ballarat Cup and 4th in Hunter Cup. 5th in BAF from carpark. There is no way he misses.

[Messenger]

It is some consolation that our 3yo's would have been considered 4yo's a couple of years back because two runs over 2760m two weeks in a row is a fair assignment

[aussiebreno]

Probably hard to leave out Bulletproof Boy now even though he would just be making up the numbers

[Showgrounds]

The Real Sherlock just smashed the conception of the Stewart stables invincibility in classic races. Last start over the trip he ran his last 1/4 in 25.6, believed to be the fastest closing quarter ever at Melton. Tonight, 3 wide the first 700, last half 54.5, last quarter in 26.2 sprinting 3 wide.

I have been n unabshed fan of the horse since he first trialled. He is the best horse and the one to beat in the Derby.

[Messenger]

Adam Hamilton saying it will cost Leap To Fame $40k to get down here.
The Vic Cup is a $300k race, is it much more than $150k for first?
I know Kevin Seymour has plenty of moola but you would think about the value

[aussiebreno]

Jeff and Amora vita in. As is Leap to Fame

No Beyond Delight. 4-3 head to head with RNR Who and beaten by the post in a Kilmore Cup. I can understand his non-inclusion but he might make the non-selection look silly by the end of the season.

Wish the barrier draw was alphabetical order! I got excited when glancing and seen Act Now up the top haha!

[Messenger]

Here is the field except for Catch A Wave which the TAB seem to have forgotten about

[aussiebreno]

Better Eclipse = sit sprinter
Honolua Bay = been reluctant to use gate speed in past and first up

Gifts a lead for RNR Who and although he may hand up I would expect LTF to death seat. Either way looks doubtful anything will then come across and attack or make a move. So will probably be a boring procession.

Act Now $51 is outrageous.

[Messenger]

You think he should be $101?

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/leap-to-fame-odds-on-after-vic-cup-barrier-draw/

[aussiebreno]

You think he should be $101?

https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/articles/leap-to-fame-odds-on-after-vic-cup-barrier-draw/
Should be $15. He won 2 ID heats, was run of race in ID heat he got beaten in and was favourite for final and a J Quinlan rush of blood away from being the ID final winner.

[aussiebreno]

Thanks god for Tay Tay and Amore Vita/Encipher racing in the Vic Cup or the full field for the Make Mine Cullen could have been Emma Stewarts

[Messenger]

LOL Act How :D

[aussiebreno]

LOL Act How :D

Hahaha!

[Danno]

Should be $15. He won 2 ID heats, was run of race in ID heat he got beaten in and was favourite for final and a J Quinlan rush of blood away from being the ID final winner.

In the weakest ID final field since Weona Warrior in 1994 mate. I think $51 sounds about right.:)

[aussiebreno]

In the weakest ID final field since Weona Warrior in 1994 mate. I think $51 sounds about right.:)

I think you may have missed Lennythesharks WA ID.

Even 2021.

I Cast No Shadow = Boncel Benjamin
Ego 2nd down to 8th.
Bundoran 9th both years
Louis 8th down to 12th.
Max Delight, Majestic Cruiser, Triple Eight and Alta Orlando all in 2021 final couldn't qualify for 2022.
Our Uncle Sam was 2 years & 5 lengths past his best
Malcolms Rhythm never won another race
Balraj went about 1win/30 starts in his whole career that wasn't restricted to less than NR90 or age racing.

Lucky for King of Swing.

[aussiebreno]

In any case there will obviously be a more common scenario where its mathematically impossible to make ground but if not Act Now will be charging late and well and truly defy the $51. If they run home in 54 no chance but if they run home in 56 and Jodi doesn't slaughter him he is in a wide apart photo with Better Eclipse. 55 which is probably most likely scenario he gets beat a length.

[Messenger]

It is very disappointing for connections that Susan Is Her Name is not in the Trotting Oaks (she would have been a good thing).
She is instead going to the operating table so fingers crossed she will be back the middle of next year

[aussiebreno]

We seen what happened last week when a tough old boy Country Cups/local FFA regular drew a better gate in Bulletproof Boy. Could it be Bettor is the Bomb turn this week?

[Messenger]

Has there been much promotion of the Victoria Cup?
The lead story/picture on HRV's homepage 'Leap To Fame odds-on after Vic Cup barrier draw' has not changed for 3 days

[Messenger]

Better Eclipse has come in while Leap To Fame is now Evens (Act How now $61)

[aussiebreno]

Honolua Bay out and Bulletproof Boy in.

I wonder if that does good for the race as BB may try get the early lead and put some early heat into it.

Will also be a good chance for anyone who whinged as to why BB wasnt in the original field to see why he wasnt included!

[Messenger]

I thought it was semi-ridiculous for Honolua to be tackling it first up (mind you Capt Rav went into The Eureka first up).
I always thought BB's draw could make it interesting if somebody came out.
How fast is Better Eclipse? He would not want BB crossing him

[aussiebreno]

Better Eclipse should hold his own from barrier 1 but I am sure they would have preferred a gentle hand up to RNR Who.

Ravishing scratched

Act Now $71 now. Jump on!!!!

[Messenger]

Have a look at last year's race again Brendan
Better Eclipse was 1 and RNR was 3, Better got easy sit, RNR not hurried at start got Death.
Why should Better be able to do any better this year?

Act How was $101

Last year's race

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX081022#MXM08102201

[aussiebreno]

Have a look at last year's race again Brendan
Better Eclipse was 1 and RNR was 3, Better got easy sit, RNR not hurried at start got Death.
Why should Better be able to do any better this year?

Act How was $101

Last year's race

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=X081022#MXM08102201
I was only saying Better should hold his own in response to your question about Bulletproof crossing him.

[Messenger]

I know it sounds like I thought you believed in Better Eclipse but what I was meaning to say was - do you agree that the odds for Better Eclipse have got a bit skinny at $7

[aussiebreno]

Ahh I see.
I've said all along last years Vic Cup proved nothing about who was the best horse who finished in the top4. RNR Doo had a headstart on them when they cornered and they got home in 26.8 so 2nd-4th mathematically couldnt have done any more. They get home in a 27.5 tonight Better Eclipse is a decent chance of running him down. Thats if Bulletproof doesnt make Betters work too hard early. I thought $7 would have been ok before the scratchings but as soon as Honolua was scratched I was glad I hadnt backed him at that price. $10-$11 maybe more appropriate?
Remembering this year we have Leap to Fame who is raging ID fave

[Messenger]

I just don't want Jason Grimson to win with another claimer. I don't know how he does it but legit or not - it does nothing for the credibility of the sport when he manages these amazing turnarounds.

[Showgrounds]

Not a lot of talk about The Victoria Derby in the media, and there should be.

Barrier draws have thrown open the field with Stewart's more fancied runners drawn the second row. Her front row starter Celebrity Royal is only having it's third start, so the race is a big ask for him. Most of the publicity and talk after last week's heats was about The Lost Storm's "failure" and The Real Sherlock being an "upset" winner. Really?

Petracca, the other heart winner, got away with a dawdling 63.6 first half of the last mile. No surprise then, after being unchallenged, he sprinted his last quarter in 26.2. His overall time was a full 3.7 seconds slower than the following heat.

The Lost Storm led easily from the pole but the pace was genuine throughout, thanks to The Real Sherlock working three wide for the first lap before gaining a breather. They ran home in 54.4 with the last quarter in 26.2, the same as Petracca's last quarter.
The Real Sherlock, despite spending the first 1,000 metres three wide, was clocked to run his last quarter in 25.8. At his previous, more leisurely, start he ran his last quarter in 25.6 seconds. This has been reported as the fastest last quarter ever recorded at Melton. Interestingly, both his wins were over tonight's journey of 2760 metres. And this distance is the key to tonight's race.

The Lost Storm had a veterinary examination after the race, an endoscope revealed a grade 1 pulmonary haemorrhage (a few traces of blood in the trachea). The horse was stood down pending another endoscope and a veterinary certificate before being allowed to race. I assume this has been done but, in the usual HRV need-to-know practice, I have seen no mention of the horse being cleared.

But this is all smoke and mirrors. Although the horse bolted-in th Queensland Derby in July, over 2680 metres, it was against inferior opposion than what he met last week and tonight. He failed over 2400m in the Eureka, the next longest distance he has raced over. 2240m at Melton appears to have been his pet distance.

In short, The Lost Storm simply couldn't handle the 2680 metres at break-neck speed last week. It won't get any easier tonight.

Contrast that with The Real Sherlock. This horse can really sprint, and sprints quickly. He has very high gate speed of which we have only seen a small sample of in Australia. When he came here it was thought he would thrive in 2240 metre races. In reality he has developed into a first-class stayer who can run scintillating secondly times. He is a far more mature horse than the one that raced in Auckland during the Autumn. All of this and a front row draw makes him the horse to beat.

[Messenger]

Also in the Derby, he is quite possibly only racing for 3rd but I think Captain Hammerhead could be a good thing for a place. He was only driven to qualify last week

[aussiebreno]

I just don't want Jason Grimson to win with another claimer. I don't know how he does it but legit or not - it does nothing for the credibility of the sport when he manages these amazing turnarounds.

Agreed

[aussiebreno]

Also in the Derby, he is quite possibly only racing for 3rd but I think Captain Hammerhead could be a good thing for a place. He was only driven to qualify last week

Agreed again

[aussiebreno]

Good write up Trevor.

Usually the Vic Derby early in the season would seed your top 3yos. We're now late in the season and they haven't seeded themselves because they have barely raced. Little oddity.

[Messenger]

Did you hear that Brendan - stewards will be looking at Act Now warming up

[aussiebreno]

Did you hear that Brendan - stewards will be looking at Act Now warming up

Missed it. Is there an issue with him?

[Messenger]

Would seem so, in their eyes
(Maybe explains why he needs a drip within 24hr of racing?)

[aussiebreno]

Good write up Trevor.

Usually the Vic Derby early in the season would seed your top 3yos. We're now late in the season and they haven't seeded themselves because they have barely raced. Little oddity.

Petracca looked Seed 1 as an early 2yo but failed to get the results. Tonight gets the result and goes back to Seed 1. Reserve judgement on where he sits in history or moving forward because it was a strange race with Sherlock stopping and Lost Storm out the back.

[Messenger]

and Perfect Class probably the run of the race

ps Where is Britanny being beamed to - not really seen on the main 3 Sky Channels or is it she on the TAB ap channel

[Messenger]

we must always listen to brendan

[Showgrounds]

Petracca looked Seed 1 as an early 2yo but failed to get the results. Tonight gets the result and goes back to Seed 1. Reserve judgement on where he sits in history or moving forward because it was a strange race with Sherlock stopping and Lost Storm out the back.

Early prognosis for Sherlock upon returning to scale was atrial fibrillation. Very disappointing, he was travelling like a winner down the back and his wheels fell of. Back to NZ Monday for him.

[Messenger]

WE MUST ALWAYS LISTEN TO BRENDAN

It was supposed to be in capitals
I hope he had at least $50 on him

Only 9.8m separated the whole field - most unusual
The time was good (Stanley got Q2 wrong)
Maybe it explains Catch A Wave's run. She performed lengths better than all (maybe being unfair to winner and LTF). Explains that one horse should/could have potentially spaced them
I am raving for Hi Manameisjeff was a massive run considering he did not handle the turn

[Messenger]

Some ridiculously tough runs in the Oaks
- the winner
- JOYFUL

[aussiebreno]

What a race the Vic Cup was.

LTF and Wave probably runs of the race. Fact RNR Who couldnt beat those two home is telling.

Thankyou Act Now! You little beauty

[Messenger]

Oh come on Brendan, I will say it again - you would kill for a horse as good as RNRDoo.
Maybe if he was in the Stewart stable he would be unbeatable

[Messenger]

Solesseo Matuca has changed ownership and stables again after winning a Gp1 !

[aussiebreno]

Oh come on Brendan, I will say it again - you would kill for a horse as good as RNRDoo.
Maybe if he was in the Stewart stable he would be unbeatable

Name in order your top 10 pacers in Australia?

[Messenger]

That will make a good thread for tomorrow - should we make it 4yo and up (Pacers only?)

[Messenger]

Watching it again and you see that Spirit Of St Louis in particular and Encipher did not get a run at them

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX141023#MXM14102301

[aussiebreno]

Watching it again and you see that Spirit Of St Louis in particular and Encipher did not get a run at them

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=MX141023#MXM14102301

Mach Dan also wins if Better Eclipse didnt stop in his face

[aussiebreno]

How good was Dans call. With them all coming like that to pick the winner in call.

[Messenger]

And despite the audio team always having me on edge, the TrotsVision coverage was excellent. One small improvement might be to have Brittany on track and maybe bring Gareth into the studio for Bronte

[Messenger]

From the Cup - Captain Ravishing had a sex change

How does the Chief Steward get that wrong - it is not just a she for a he - it actually says mare

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/stewards-reports/stewards-reports-detail/?mc=MX141023