A Leading Question (stats)

[Messenger]

Here is a NYE resolution that I may or may not follow through on but I have good intentions. ;)
(I am pretty sure that I did something similar on here years ago)
Our product needs to be more interesting and having half the races won by the leader is not exciting stuff. I believe this to be particularly true for our code as a good deal of the time you can narrow down who is likely to lead to a couple of horses. At the gallops they seem to be able to lead from more barriers and for the handful of times I have seen a dogs race, they seem a bit of a scramble but I believe the inside and outside boxes are the favoured draws.

Now I think most of us think that the leaders win half the time but knowing is another matter so I will try to keep a running tally of how many leaders win in Victoria to see if we have a 'boring' problem
I won't be watching every race but mainly going off the Stewards Comments column as to who was the leader at the bell. I appreciate that in some longer distance races the bell leader winning does not necessarily equate to a boring race but I am going to present the stats simply as stated

1/1/24 = 6/9 (Echuca 6/9)

[Messenger]

Jan 2 = 10/17 (Terang 4/8)

[Jasper]

Wouldn’t leader at the first post be a better option? i.e at the end of the lead time.

There is a paucity of such stats in harness racing so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

(We would love to have that sort of leaders strike rate in WA, especially GP)

[Messenger]

For short races whoever leads at the mile marker is not necessarily going to represent who led most of the race (and of course there is no such stat for mile races)
I am examining the 'boring factor' thus I think the bell is better
Plus these are lazy stats as I am not committing to watching every race (only using the stewards column)

I would have thought that GP would have a 50% leaders strike rate. You should do the stats for WA Daniel

[Messenger]

Jan 3 = 15/27 (Mildura 5/10)

I have added each Day's / Track's total in case anybody is inclined to total them to create individual track stats

[Jasper]

For short races whoever leads at the mile marker is not necessarily going to represent who led most of the race (and of course there is no such stat for mile races)
I am examining the 'boring factor' thus I think the bell is better
Plus these are lazy stats as I am not committing to watching every race (only using the stewards column)

I would have thought that GP would have a 50% leaders strike rate. You should do the stats for WA Daniel

Ok I will do the same re Stewards leader. I will commit for January stats for now but only for GP (mobiles). The boring factor is a given I am afraid that the number will probably be higher than 50% leaders re GP.

The barrier stats on the HRA site re Tracks are interesting but they don’t break down the barriers/distances unfortunately. When it comes to stats re punting, we are way behind the thoroughbreds. The best example I have found is the NZ Stridemaster site re race and individual horse analysis. Sulky App is interesting and gives a lot of information but somethings like their gate speed analysis seem to me to be questionable eg a slow horse from barrier one may lead at a smaller track because the corner comes up quicker etc. An argument could be mounted that little has changed in 50 years in this area of harness racing as far as stats go. Hopefully drivers wearing something like a GPS and the public having access to the data isn't far away.

Apologies as I am digressing.

[trish]

Pity they don't have enough room for straight racing in harness.
It would slove a lot of problems but others will say how stupid.
But it could create a whole new following, maybe.

[Messenger]

Ok I will do the same re Stewards leader. I will commit for January stats for now but only for GP (mobiles). The boring factor is a given I am afraid that the number will probably be higher than 50% leaders re GP.

The barrier stats on the HRA site re Tracks are interesting but they don’t break down the barriers/distances unfortunately. When it comes to stats re punting, we are way behind the thoroughbreds. The best example I have found is the NZ Stridemaster site re race and individual horse analysis. Sulky App is interesting and gives a lot of information but somethings like their gate speed analysis seem to me to be questionable eg a slow horse from barrier one may lead at a smaller track because the corner comes up quicker etc. An argument could be mounted that little has changed in 50 years in this area of harness racing as far as stats go. Hopefully drivers wearing something like a GPS and the public having access to the data isn't far away.

Apologies as I am digressing.

One massive improvement in harness stats (not that I am really interested in it from a punting perspective - as most of them do not give a damn about the animals - only the $) has to be the sectional times showing how much extra ground a horse may have covered compared to being in front all the way

[Jasper]

We ran last a couple of starts back, beaten 24 mtrs at GP. According to Sulky App the horse (Lucca) covered 39mtres extra compared to the horse that led and ultimately ran a close second. In the summary of the race the horse was rated the fourth best run in the race. When he ran second at GP he faced the breeze from barrier five or six and covered an extra 25 mtres compared to the leader and winner which drew barrier 1.

The greatest performance I have seen at GP was Lazarus when he ran second in a Fremantle Cup and was wide all the way (2500). I think Elsu when he won a big race in the East, sitting deep, is the only horse to come close to this type of performance (in top company).

Straight racing is a great idea. Does it happen anywhere in the world?

[Messenger]

Jan 4 = 21/36 (Ballarat 6/9)

[Messenger]

Jan 5 = 22/44 (Boort 1/8) Amazing for 712m track

[Messenger]

Jan 5 = 23/54 (Melton 1/10)

[Jasper]

Gloucester Park 5/7 (6/8 if you include the standing start race)

The irony of keeping these stats, my horse leading and getting beaten is not lost on me!

[Messenger]

We include the stand start as we are looking at the boring factor.
It was an unusual day in Vic yesterday with only 2/18 leaders winning.

[gutwagon]

Will be interesting to see how the track without a sprint lane (Ballararat) compares to the rest. I really think the sprint lane has made racing very boring.

Of course the handicapping system still leads to some races with one horse being much better than the rest of the field , that horse usually goes to the front regardless of the draw just to avoid trouble .

[Messenger]

2 very good points Rick, if I was a techno whizz (and not lazy) I should be incorporating/recording things like draw and odds (as an indicator of handicapping morals)

[Messenger]

Jan 6 = 31/64 (Bendigo 8/10)

[Messenger]

Jan 7 = 35/73 (Cobram 4/9)

[Jasper]

I take it your including the 1200 mtre races in your stats?

[Messenger]

Every race and where the leader at the bell wins. However if the leader at bell is crossed and comes again to win - that would not be considered boring

[Jasper]

Thanks for clarifying. I am now following your lead re all races in WA.

The stats for WA so far are as follows:

1/1/24 Busselton 8/8
2/1/24 Bunbury 4/7
3/1/24 Pinjarra 4/8
5/1/24 GP. 6/8
5/1/24 Busselton 4/7
6/1/24 Albany. 3/8

Total 29/46 (63% of leaders at the bell have won in WA so far)

I will follow your format in the future re single meeting and overall totals.

[Messenger]

Thanks for going to the trouble Daniel, it will be interesting to have 2 states

[Jasper]

WA

Jan 8 = 35/55 (Pinjarra 6/9) or 64% of leaders at the bell went on to win, so far.

(I suspect WA has is the “leader at the bell” at the moment)

[Jasper]

WA

Jan 9 = 40/64 (GP Tuesday 5/9) or 62.5% of “leaders at the bell” have gone on to win.

[Jasper]

For an early comparison after 64 races the figures were Victoria 31/64 and WA 40/64 re leader at the bell.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 9 = 40/84 (Mildura 5/11)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 10 = 43/93 (Geelong 2/9)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 11 = 46/103 (Bendigo 3/10) Only early days but only 44.6% so far - I am thinking that 40% would be acceptable as not 'too' boring

[Jasper]

Sound reasonable re 40%. I don’t think we have ever experienced that in WA though. Probably the major reason I rarely gamble on WA trots.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 12 = 51/111 (Charlton 5/8)

Vic Jan 12 = 56/121 (Melton 5/10)

[Jasper]

WA

Jan 12 = 47/71 (GP 5/7- one race abandoned due to lightning)

Jan 12 = 53/79 (Busselton 6/8)

WA currently at 67% re Leaders at the Bell!

[trish]

Congrats Daniel, leader at bell & winner!!!

[Jasper]

Correction re WA. It should read:

Jan 12 = 45/71 (GP -one race abandoned due to lightning)

Jan 12 = 51/79 (Busselton 6/8)

WA currently at 64.5% re Leaders at the Bell.

Vics leading re maths ability as well!

[Jasper]

WA

Jan 13 = 54/86 (Albany 3/7, currently 62.7 re Leader at the Bell)

Thanks, had some concerns when he was crossed that he wouldn’t be the LAB but fortunately we got the retake (Trainer/Drivers first city win in 30 years, my first it was great craic. Lou came through it well too)

[Messenger]

Great stuff Daniel

https://www.harness.org.au/racing/fields/race-fields/?mc=GP120124#GPM12012411

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 13 = 58/130 (Shep 2/9)

Previous member and local Wayne Hayes would have been chuffed winning on Shep Cup night

[Jasper]

Thank you re photo. I love the way his front leg is always extended beyond his nose. I was told he went in a 61 inch hobble when he came over but the trainer let it out 2 inches and we haven’t looked back. They do look loose though when you magnify the picture. Time to go free leg him?

Re Hayes - I sense an omen bet coming on. Hayes’ are on fire!

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 14 = 59/137 (Hamilton 1/7)

That has got us down to 43%

(Edit: Corrected figures as I forgot that one race was abandoned at Hamilton today)

[strong persuader]

Thank you re photo. I love the way his front leg is always extended beyond his nose. I was told he went in a 61 inch hobble when he came over but the trainer let it out 2 inches and we haven’t looked back. They do look loose though when you magnify the picture. Time to go free leg him?

Re Hayes - I sense an omen bet coming on. Hayes’ are on fire!

Don't judge too much of a photo finish! If you look closely, you'll see that he isn't pacing in the picture. Offside front is forward, offside rear is back.

[Jasper]

Good point. He seemed to get a little rocky when the driver went for him too, down the straight so that may have had something to do with it. His heart rate was good when he came in but it took awhile to come down. We lost a little bit of fitness due to a small laceration on the inside of his hind leg just before Christmas.

Will watch the replay again. Thanks for your comment.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 15 = 61/146 (Maryborough 2/9)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 16 = 65/153 (Swan Hill 4/7)

[Jasper]

WA

Jan 16 = 55/93 (Bunbury 1/7. 59% re Leader at Bell have gone on to win)

First time under we have been under 60%, thanks to Bunbury.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 17 = 68/161 (Bendigo 3/8)

Vic Jan 18 = 73/169 (Cobram 5/8)

Vic Jan 18 = 75/175 (Cranbourne 2/6)

So far it has been a bit of a revelation IMO for I would have expected 75 leaders winning and 100 losing to be the reverse of that (early days mind you)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 19 = 79/185 (Melton 4/10)

[Jasper]

WA

19/6 Pinjarra = 59/102 (4/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win at Pinjarra)
20/6 GP = 65/112 (6/10 Leaders at the Bell went on to win at GP)

WA currently sitting at 58% re Leaders at the bell.

[Jasper]

WA

19/6 Busselton = 68/119 (Busselton 3/7 re Leader at the Bell went on to win)

Down to 57%. Excellent race and call re Cup.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 20 = 82/194 (Ballarat 3/9)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 21 = 84/202 (Geelong 2/8)

[Jasper]

WA

20/1/24 = 73/126 (Albany 5/7 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)

58% of Leaders at the Bell have won in WA this month.

(Apologies re tardiness)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 22 = 86/211 (Maryborough 2/9)

ps No apology required Daniel

[Jasper]

WA

22/1/24 = 74/136 (Pinjarra 4/10 Leaders at the Bell went on to win.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 23 = 91/220 (Melton 5/9)

[Jasper]

WA

23/1/24= 78/145 (GP 4/9)

Almost at 50%!

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 24 = 95/231 (Mildura 4/11)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 25 = 96/241 (Shep 1/10)

WOW that is only 39.8% of leaders winning
I would never have believed it if I had not kept this record

I am wondering whether what seems like a decrease in Stewart runners has contributed to this for it always seemed to me that they were leading and winning
Maybe my perception that our code is leader dominated was wrong but if I could be bothered doing some historic research, I would be surprised if Melton wasn't

Of course this is only 4 weeks of 52 and even with 40% leaders winning, it is still the position you would want - no other position is winning 40% of the time
But if this continues, it makes picking winners much more of a task than just picking leaders

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 26 = 99/249 (Stawell 3/8)

Vic Jan 26 = 102/256 (Cranbourne 3/7)

[Jasper]

WA

26/1/24 = 84/154 (GP 6/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)
26/1/24 = 91/162 (Albany 7/8 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)

Currently at 56%. Slightly similar thoughts to Kevin’s comments re lower than expected numbers of leaders winning. Vics have much lower percentages than WA though. At the end of the month I will compile the figures for GP which should be interesting.

[Jasper]

Another stat:

The average number of runners in FFA races at GP in 2023 was 7.8. May and June had the lowest number of starters ie May had 16 starters in 3 races and June had 17 starters in 4 races.

Over the course of the year 10/47 FFA races had 5 or less starters. The lowest number was 3 and this occurred in June. In 2023 there were two Pacing Cups so this may have affected the figures. I also did not include the Nullabor as there were only 8 horses who could get a start as opposed to 12 in all others.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 27 = 105/265 (Melton 3/9)

[Jasper]

WA

27/1/24= 94/169 (Northam 3/7 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)

WA currently sitting at 56%.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 28 = 108/275 (Maryborough 3/10)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 29 = 111/284 (Melton 3/9)

That is only 39% of Bell Leaders winning

[Jasper]

WA

29/1/24 = 96/178 (Pinjarra 2/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)

[Jasper]

WA sitting on 54% re Leaders at the Bell. I’m trying to put some spin on this figure to beat the Vics but it’s pretty difficult to come up with anything at this point.

I am surprised however that our figure isn’t higher as well.

[Jasper]

WA

30/1/24 = 103/187 (GP 7/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)

For the month of Jan 2024, 55% of Leaders at the Bell went on to win in WA.

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 30 = 114/294 (Mildura 3/10)

[Messenger]

Vic Jan 31 = 117/304 (Geelong 3/10)

Vic 2024 for the month of January 117 races out of 304 were won by the horse leading at the Bell = 38.5%

I will reset for the month of Feb

[Big K]

Be nice to know the difference between GP and Pinjarra.. just for comparison between the track size.

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 1 = 5/10 (Shep 5/10)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 2 = 5/18 (Hamilton 0/8)

Vic Feb 2 = 9/28 (Benidgo 4/10)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 3 = 12/38 (Melton 3/10)

< 32% leaders winning in Feb at this early stage

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 4 no meetings

Vic Feb 5 = 14/46 (Charlton 2/8)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 6 = 19/57 (Mildura 5/11)

Any old darts player will recognize triple 19, so our percentage is 33.33.%

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 7 = 22/64 (Cobram 3/7)

Vic Feb 7 = 25/74 (Ballarat 3/10)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 8 = 30/84 (Bendigo 5/10)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 9 = 33/94 (Bendigo 3/10)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 10 = 38/103 (Cranbourne 5/9)

No calculator needed to see that for Feb so far less than 40% of leaders are winning

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 11 = 40/110 (Swan Hill 2/7)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 12 = 42/119 (Maryborough 2/9)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 13 Ararat cancelled due to Wimmera Catastrophic Fire Rating
We can relate to this as we are sleeping at the Stawell fire refuge tonight after evacuating Halls Gap
I am pretty sure HG will be alright but I’m very worried about how Pomonal has fared

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 14 = 45/127 (Geelong 3/8)

Vic Feb 14 = 49/135 (Echuca 4/8)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 15 = 53/145 (Bendigo 4/10)

Only 36.5% leaders winning so far in Feb

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 16 = 56/154 (Melton 3/9)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 17 = 62/163 (Terang 6/9)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 18 = 67/171 (Gunbower 5/8)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 19 = 70/179 (Warragul 3/8)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 20 = 75.5/191 (Mildura 5.5/12)

We had a deadheat last night

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 21 = 80.5/201 (Bendigo 5/10)

We are up to 40% for Feb

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 22 both Horsham and Shepparton Abandoned

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 23 = 85.5/209 (Geelong 5/8)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 24 = 86.5/219 (Melton 1/10)

Maybe trotters don't lead and win

We are back under 40% again

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 25 = 89.5/227 (Cranbourne 3/8)

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 26 = 97.5/237 (Charlton 8/10)
Big day for leaders

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 27 = 101.5/247 (Mildura 4/10, not 11 as one race abandoned)

Feb 28 No Racing - both Maryborough and Shep abandoned

[Messenger]

Vic Feb 29 = 104.5/256 (Ballarat 3/9)

So for Feb 40.8% of bell leaders went on to win

The combined total for Jan and Feb is 221.5/560 = 39.55% bell leaders went on to win

[Messenger]

I will continue for March but I am not sure after that

Mar 1 = 3/9 (Ararat 3/9)

[Messenger]

Mar 2 = 7/17 (Melton 4/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 3 = 13/26 (Boort 6/9)

[Messenger]

Vic Mar 4 = 17/38 (Cobram 4/12)

[Messenger]

Mar 5 = 19/48 (Melton 2/10)

[Messenger]

Mar 6 = 23/56 (Swan Hill 4/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 7 = 26/63 (Cranbourne 3/7)

[Messenger]

Mar 8 = 30/71 (Maryborough 4/8)

Mar 8 = 35/80 (Ballarat 5/9)

[Messenger]

Mar 9 = 35/89 (Bendigo 0/9)

0/9 saw the March percentage fall 5% in one meeting

[Messenger]

Mar 10 = 39/96 (Birchip 4/7)

Mar 10 = 42/104 (Wangaratta 3/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 11 = 45.5/112 (Horsham 3½/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 12 = 49.5/120 (Mildura 4/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 13 = 50.5/129 (Bendigo 1/9)

[Messenger]

Mar 14 = 50.5/139 (Geelong 0/9)

After the last 2 days we are down to only 36% of leaders winning in March

[Messenger]

Mar 15 = 53.5/146 (Yarra Valley 3/7)

Mar 15 = 55.5/156 (Shepparton 2/10)

[Messenger]

Mar 16 = 60.5/165 (Melton 5/9)

[Messenger]

Mar 17 = 64.5/173 (Charlton 4/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 18 = 67.5/183 (Maryborough 3/10)

[Messenger]

Mar 19 = 70.5/195 (Mildura 3/12)

[Messenger]

Mar 20 = 73.5/203 (Terang 3/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 21 = 75.5/210 (Echuca 2/7)

I am definitely stopping at the end of the month

[Messenger]

Mar 22 = 77.5/219 (Ballarat 2/9)

[Messenger]

Mar 23 = 81.5/227 (Melton 4/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 24 = 84.5/235 (Ouyen 3/8)
Mar 24 = 88.5/243 (Cranbourne 4/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 25 = 94.5/253 (Maryborough 6/10)

[Messenger]

Mar 26 = 97.5/263 (Shep 3/10)

[Messenger]

Mar 27 = 101.5/274 (Mildura 4/11)

[Messenger]

Mar 28 = 109.5/ 283 (Ballarat 8/9)

8/9 doesn't say much for not having a sprint lane

[Messenger]

Mar 29 = 113.5/292 (Stawell 4/9)

[Messenger]

Ballarat is not usually that bad and although the sample size is not big enough, this year 28 Bell Leaders have won while 27 Bell Leaders have lost
51% is above the average for the state this year but before Thursday's massive Leader night their percentage was 43.5%

[Messenger]

Mar 29 = 117.5/300 (Cranbourne 4/8)

[Messenger]

Mar 30 = 123.5/310 (Melton 6/10)

(although the Bell leader won R2, it was hardly boring as he lost the lead shortly after)

[Messenger]

Mar 31 = 126.5/318 (Echuca 3/8)

March = 39.8% Leaders at the bell going on to win

End of research:
Jan 117/304 = 38.5%
Feb 104.5/256 = 40.8%
Mar 126.5/318 = 39.8%

Total for 3 months in Victoria
348/878

39.6% of Bell Leaders were Winners

This is far less than I expected and somewhat disproves that harness racing is leader dominated and boring