RFlensing
01-26-2013, 07:56 PM
Hello
I've been looking at the results for Devonport at Spreyton [there's a meeting Sunday there] and I've found that some of the lead times are ... unusual in relation to what you'd expect to see at a venue over that distance.
For example, there's a couple of 1700m races where the lead time [the distance between the start point and the 1609m mark, I think] is something in the order of between 2.9 and 3.4 seconds. Is anyone aware of why there'd be these kind of discrepancies in the lead times for Spreyton? I know Albion Park isn't averse to 3.4s lead times, but it tends to run its sprint races at 1660m, and this is suggesting almost twice the lead distance in approximately the same lead time; doesn't seem right. Also, the track is considered to be 1479m with 305m straights, but most of the quarter mile sections are logged as being in the 32 - 33 second range, even in the last half of the last mile. Are they running on a different kind of surface there, or are they a different distance to standard quarter-miles there? Running into a headwind, or just incorrect data?
Also, I've found that sometimes a quarter-mile won't be a particularly good measure of horse skill, especially since sometimes a horse might not get urged on if it's clearly running better than its rivals at the close of a race. The driver might only give the horse a mild incentive to run, and even then only halfway into the last quarter if it's already found a reasonable racing position, resulting in a quarter-mile that's split into, say:
One half of the last quarter in a leisurely 31 seconds [divided by 2 to represent 1/8 mile] = 15.5 seconds
Second half of the last quarter where they mean business in 28 seconds [divided by 2 to represent the second 1/8 mile] = 14 seconds
What this will mean is that the horse might well have been capable of doing the entire quarter in 28 seconds, but the last quarter will be written down in 29.5 because the driver didn't have to push the horse out to any degree based on the quality of its rivals. This represents a bit of a conundrum in solely relying on the raw data for mile rates and quarters as a measure of horse capability.
I'd be very interested to read about how other folks gauge how much pressure a horse is really under, since I'm noticing [even after a good length of time being interested in harness racing] just how little I really know about the sport.
I've been looking at the results for Devonport at Spreyton [there's a meeting Sunday there] and I've found that some of the lead times are ... unusual in relation to what you'd expect to see at a venue over that distance.
For example, there's a couple of 1700m races where the lead time [the distance between the start point and the 1609m mark, I think] is something in the order of between 2.9 and 3.4 seconds. Is anyone aware of why there'd be these kind of discrepancies in the lead times for Spreyton? I know Albion Park isn't averse to 3.4s lead times, but it tends to run its sprint races at 1660m, and this is suggesting almost twice the lead distance in approximately the same lead time; doesn't seem right. Also, the track is considered to be 1479m with 305m straights, but most of the quarter mile sections are logged as being in the 32 - 33 second range, even in the last half of the last mile. Are they running on a different kind of surface there, or are they a different distance to standard quarter-miles there? Running into a headwind, or just incorrect data?
Also, I've found that sometimes a quarter-mile won't be a particularly good measure of horse skill, especially since sometimes a horse might not get urged on if it's clearly running better than its rivals at the close of a race. The driver might only give the horse a mild incentive to run, and even then only halfway into the last quarter if it's already found a reasonable racing position, resulting in a quarter-mile that's split into, say:
One half of the last quarter in a leisurely 31 seconds [divided by 2 to represent 1/8 mile] = 15.5 seconds
Second half of the last quarter where they mean business in 28 seconds [divided by 2 to represent the second 1/8 mile] = 14 seconds
What this will mean is that the horse might well have been capable of doing the entire quarter in 28 seconds, but the last quarter will be written down in 29.5 because the driver didn't have to push the horse out to any degree based on the quality of its rivals. This represents a bit of a conundrum in solely relying on the raw data for mile rates and quarters as a measure of horse capability.
I'd be very interested to read about how other folks gauge how much pressure a horse is really under, since I'm noticing [even after a good length of time being interested in harness racing] just how little I really know about the sport.