Miracle mile

[Richard prior]

Some great racing coming up on the weekend. First up we have The Newcastle Mile and the winner goes straight into the MM. It appears to be a very open race and they should run some serious time if the weathers okay. Beautide appears to be good odds at $7.50 in the early market, His run was super last week. In Victoria we have The Legends Mile and the clash between Smoken Up, Restrepo and Bitobliss should be a cracker. I truly believe that Bitobliss had an off day in the Kilmore Cup and expect him to be back at his best this week. Once again, We should see a great time as they have been flying at Melton recently.

[aussiebreno]

Yes great racing this weekend. Anything on over the ditch?
I'm Victorious has been given an invite.

Not sure where you got $7.50 from re Beautide. I'll take that all day.

[littlelenny]

Should be some pretty fine racing over the next month or so. Second MM spot up for grabs this weekend in the Newcastle Mile so it should be a ripper of a race. Beautide is my pick although i still think Mach Beauty can be in the finish if driven a little quieter.
Im thinking
Beautide
Field Officer
Gold Ace or Mach Beauty

[Richard prior]

In the National Trotguide Breno but it's all over the shop with the Odds and selections, It would be nice to get those odds. Haven't had a look at NZ's racing tomorrow night but the Big Guns appear to be racing on Tuesday in the Cup. Christen Me, Carribean Blaster and Terror to Love went around in a trial yesterday and CM bolted in. Not to sure how Carribean Blaster is coming along but he had trouble sticking with CM when the pace went on, Terror to Love just poked around for a bit of exercise and wasn't really pushed. Great to see I'm Victorious get an Invite, He's been going great guns over in the west.

[doinmabest]

I know it was a method that created much controversy and was quite often condemned, but it is nearly an occasion where the entire field could be handpicked by the directors and we would get one almighty race. I realise that theoretically, all the top stars will line up but as I said, nearly a year where the best of the best pick themselves.....Thoughts?

[G-Mac]

No matter how it is chosen Fred, those that miss out will still complain.

[Danno]

I think it is a year where quite a few deserving horses will miss out due to the sheer depth at the top rung at the moment, so saying that Fred, I reckon the current inclusion/qualifying rules ( even though I don't agree with them ENTIRELY) will stop a few arguements.

[Mighty Atom]

The horses I'd like to see in MM : For a Reason, Bitobliss, Smoken Up, Christen Me, Terror To Love, I'm Victorious, Bettors Fire and Suave Stuey Lombo. Other horse worthy of an invite - Chancellor Cullen. Beautide is a question mark, hasn't really raced the likes of the above mentioned but gets his chance in Newcastle Mile although Field Officer is my pick.

[Triple V]

Was reading the Trotguide this morning & on Page 3 I noted some of the terrific horses on Newcastle Mile's Honour Role such as Westburn Grant, Our Sir Vancelot, Courage Under Fire, Jofess, The Falcon Strike & so on. It would've been nice if they could have got the name of 3-time winner Sabilize ('94,'95 & '96) right. Her name has a 'Z' in it...not an 'S'.

[Richard prior]

Rod, Really like your 1st 6 selections and it would appear like there's only a couple of spots up for grabs and a couple of reserves. Correct about Beautide and he really needs to stand up tomorrow night,but he does have more than his share of ability. Field Officer has been exceptional since coming across the ditch and he's really in the mix for an invite as well.

[The German]

Better bet black will run a good race tonight drawn behind the leader definate ew chance at 100-1 and also get the in ire to the Miracle Mile when he wins! ;)

[Richard prior]

Beautide mighty impressive breaking the track record and going through to the MM.

[Danno]

Beautide SUPER! impressive Rich, broke Pay Me Christian's track record running into a very stiff wind after working very hard out of the gate, then facing the breeze!!!! If he improves on that run like he has from his previous six, the others oughta start thinking about how they can beat him!

SUPER,SUPER!!!

[The Escape Club]

Told you all, he's a very serious horse.

[Richard prior]

Now watched the replay 3 or 4 times and Beautide was Ultra impressive and won with something up his sleeve. Take away the cold southerly that blew up the coast last night and the time would have been even quicker. Abettorpunt was a real nice run also after being posted 3 wide the trip.

[Richard prior]

As Fred touched on earlier, The directors have a golden opportunity to justify the rules concerning the qualifying criteria with the depth of talent available this year and it's really shaping up to be a crackerjack Miracle Mile. I have no doubt that Christen Me & Terror to Love have been given the nod and fingers crossed they both perform well on Tuesday in the Cup. It's still not clear cut who will make up the balance of the field but For a Reason certainly deserves a spot on his last couple of runs. Restrepo was pretty impressive winning The Legends Mile last night but Bitobliss is still waiting for a clear run and Smoken Up appears to be coming back to the field but is still as tough as old boots.

[p plater]

As Fred touched on earlier, The directors have a golden opportunity to justify the rules concerning the qualifying criteria with the depth of talent available this year and it's really shaping up to be a crackerjack Miracle Mile. I have no doubt that Christen Me & Terror to Love have been given the nod and fingers crossed they both perform well on Tuesday in the Cup. It's still not clear cut who will make up the balance of the field but For a Reason certainly deserves a spot on his last couple of runs. Restrepo was pretty impressive winning The Legends Mile last night but Bitobliss is still waiting for a clear run and Smoken Up appears to be coming back to the field but is still as tough as old boots.

Richard, I agree with most of your post but having watched the relay a couple of times, I'm not sure Bitofbliss was as sharp as we think. He could of got off the fence a couple of times and he didn't use the sprint lane as I thought he would.....would value other opinions.

On Smoken Up, how brave is he, 2nd row draw, 3wide in lead time of 7.1, still 3 wide in 27.7 first quarter. A monster effort.

The Menangle setup of all off the front would certainly benefit both these horses over the short trip.

[Big Mac]

[QUOTE=p plater;28723]Richard, I agree with most of your post but having watched the relay a couple of times, I'm not sure Bitofbliss was as sharp as we think. He could of got off the fence a couple of times and he didn't use the sprint lane as I thought he would.....would value other opinions.

Bailey, I am a huge BOB fan, and I think you are right, he may not be as sharp as we think. But I could not see anywhere he could have got of the fence and definately couldn't use the sprint lane. When Melpark Major straightened up he faded into the lane blocking it for BOB. I don't think he was going good enough to use it anyways.
Rest repo on the other hand may be the next big thing!

[Mighty Atom]

My Beautide query answered - Brilliant. Watched the horse race from the beginning and never thought he would challenge the established stars in a race like the Miracle Mile but this horse and For a Reason are huge threats in the MM, never mind Christen Me.

[Maorisidol]

Better bet black will run a good race tonight drawn behind the leader definate ew chance at 100-1 and also get the in ire to the Miracle Mile when he wins! ;)

Quite right Marty, gone at the 500, last place, 45m from winner...
U might need to reassess your form guide reading skills, plus with your assessment of For A Reason, and his uncanny ability to join in at the 400, you could do with a re-education.

[Maorisidol]

My Beautide query answered - Brilliant. Watched the horse race from the beginning and never thought he would challenge the established stars in a race like the Miracle Mile but this horse and For a Reason are huge threats in the MM, never mind Christen Me.

Yep, Beautide is gonna be a scary unit in the next year or so, will b very interesting to see what he develops into, could grow into anything at this point. Restrepo awesome, 1:52.8 Gavin never touched him with the whip at all...
Bitobliss never got out, fully held by driver never released reins at all.
Smoken Up of course awesome, 3 wide fought as he does, however, can't see him winning at this level unless he leads and still probably will nowadays be outsprinted by the 3horses mentioned above plus For A Reason, Christen Me, Terror To Love.

[Richard prior]

Bailey & Dean, Have to agree with you that Bitobliss didn't look as sharp as he's been, although he didn't have a lot of racing room and still has a bit of work to do before being considered for the MM. Restrepo is certainly a horse on the way up and after watching the replay a couple more times, Smoken Up's run looks very good after doing it tough but he will struggle against the onslaught of these horses coming through. It's really shaping as the best MM ever and a race of many chances.

[Mighty Atom]

Bitobliss had no luck at all, was hard held as he crossed the line. It would be a travesty if he wasn't selected and I really think the powers that be should look at his two phenomenal wins a couple of runs back and include him in the field ( no taking the horse to Sydney to run in the preludes). I'm a real fan of Bitobliss but he does seem to run into more than his share of bad luck in races. Deserved as he is I don't think you can select Smoken Up over Bitobliss. Restrepo was very good but had a great run throughout the race, taking nothing away from Restrepo but had Bitobliss lobbed in that position he would have blitzed them. I was really surprised that For a Reason didn't receive the first invite because he has virtually picked himself on his past two wins.

[littlelenny]

Beautide really stepped up to the mark last night i always expected him to win but not in the manner he did that was really impressive. Restrepo good to see him starting to make his mark he is definetly a grand circuit player, Bitobliss very hard to measure up his run as he never really took part in the race, maybe we will get to see him in one of the MM qualifiers at Menangle. The old war horse Smoken Up was again super just had to do too much work and his old sparing partner Melpark Major tried but hes clearly not up to this level anymore.

[Big Mac]

Bitobliss had no luck at all, was hard held as he crossed the line. It would be a travesty if he wasn't selected and I really think the powers that be should look at his two phenomenal wins a couple of runs back and include him in the field ( no taking the horse to Sydney to run in the preludes). I'm a real fan of Bitobliss but he does seem to run into more than his share of bad luck in races. Deserved as he is I don't think you can select Smoken Up over Bitobliss. Restrepo was very good but had a great run throughout the race, taking nothing away from Restrepo but had Bitobliss lobbed in that position he would have blitzed them. I was really surprised that For a Reason didn't receive the first invite because he has virtually picked himself on his past two wins.

Rod
I believe Bitobliss is heading north this week for the qualifiers. As for For A Reason, I think the race conditions are preventing him having an invite already. But he will need to at least race in a qualifying race to gain an entry. He will be the one to beat though.

[broncobrad]

I don't ever recall seeing 'Maoris' ever being a smartarse but you can hardly blame him lol. I too needed a bit of convincing about the Tasmanian but last night stamped his class and depth and is in it up to his ears. Dumesny made it patently clear on In The Gig that there are races there ($100K) available to qualify with and he fully expects the prospects to use this path, I mean for goodness sakes the defending champ isn't even in the mix at this stage. I have always admired BOB but he needs everything to go right in a mile like this...and that isn't going to happen. It just wouldn't be the same without SU there, you know he would keep them honest...but for me still it is FAR by a length from Christen Me and Beautide a courageous third in an astronomical time. Have left out TTL he has not quite established himself in Oz and in The Mile that we are looking at, well I cannot see him measuring up (and he was my pick in the last ID)!!!

[Maorisidol]

Coca Cola Amatil Sprint
The new upgraded Restrepo vs the new very upgraded For A Reason and poor old Bitobliss drawn out at 10!
Seems a 2horse race to me...FAR wins Restrepo 2nd. Will be a very interesting race to see how it unfolds

[Mighty Atom]

Dredlock Rockstar going over next week for the Cordina Sprint. Going super over here,see how he measures up.

[Richard prior]

Also noticed Im Victorious winning the Village Kid Sprint a couple of nights ago on the little track at Northam in 1.55 under a strangle hold.

[aussiebreno]

We will see how good the WA form is. Will be a race with depth:

SMOKEN UP
IDEAL SCOTT
BABY BLING
ABETTORPUNT (assuming he goes again)
FLY LIKE AN EAGLE (rumoured to be coming on his way to USA)
THE GOLD ACE

DEPENDING ON WHO WINS THE COCA COLA:
FOR A REASON
RESTREPO
MACH BEAUTY
FIELD OFFICER
GAIUS CAESAR
PURE POWER
PUB BLITZ
MISTER PRESLEY
BRAVE WIGGY

POSSIBLES BACK FROM NZ:
CARIBBEAN BLASTER
SUAVE STUEY LOMBO

OTHER:
AMAJORJO (EMERG Sat)

There's 19 possibles listed including DREDLOCK ROCKSTAR, there could be others too!
Amazing depth at the moment, all this with ITMQ out and Excel Stride out as well. Top three from Inter 6 months ago and majority field from Mile 6 months ago might not be there! But the Chariots of Fire could provide a few runners.

[Richard prior]

Bit of rain hanging around Sydney and hopefully just enough to freshen things up. Real good program at Menangle and should be a great nights racing. Disappointed to hear that Philadelphia Man has been scratched but really looking forward to the main race with the clash between FAR, Restrepo and BOB etc and seeing Yankee Rockstar running around on the big track.

[Viv Strangman]

The lucky horse at the moment has to be Christen Me. His last three runs have cast real doubt on the ability of the horse to handle the pressure of the Grand Circut. A wild gallop at Ashburton followed by a just passable run on Cup day followed by another wild gallop on Show day badly checking four horses and just about unseating K Gath. Mentally the horse had serious issues when first produced at trials and seems to be returning to his old habits now. If thing get tight at Menangle, whats the chance he will blow to bits again.?

[Mighty Atom]

We will see how good the WA form is. Will be a race with phenomenal depth:

SMOKEN UP
IDEAL SCOTT
BABY BLING
TERRORWAY
ABETTORPUNT (assuming he goes again)
FLY LIKE AN EAGLE (rumoured to be coming on his way to USA)
THE GOLD ACE

DEPENDING ON WHO WINS THE COCA COLA:
FOR A REASON
RESTREPO
MACH BEAUTY
FIELD OFFICER
GAIUS CAESAR
PURE POWER
PUB BLITZ
MISTER PRESLEY
BRAVE WIGGY

POSSIBLES BACK FROM NZ:
CARIBBEAN BLASTER
SUAVE STUEY LOMBO

OTHER:
AMAJORJO (EMERG Sat)

There's 20 possibles listed including DREDLOCK ROCKSTAR, there could be others too!

Yes, but realistically you could eliminate about ten of those as being major players.

[Mighty Atom]

As far as the Cordina Sprint goes next week these horses should not be in it : Mach Beauty, Suave Stuey Lombo ( Shane Tritton stated he hoped SSL did Australia proud in NZ. - yeah right), Brave Wiggy, Mister Presley, Pure Power, Pub Blitz, Gaius Caesar, Carribean Blaster ( borderline) Baby Bling (borderline) The Gold Ace. Will have a lot of owners off side but all of these horses performances of late have been below par.

[Richard prior]

In the MM so far are:
Im Victorious
Beautide
Terror to Love
Christen Me
Restrepo
Have the Directors invited any other horse or horses from last nights racing???

[aussiebreno]

I'd have though FAR would have been close to an invite. I seen an article on Restrepo win but nothing on FAR.

Next weeks field would look something like this if they all are targeting.

Smoken Up
Baby Bling
Carribean Blaster
Suave Stuey Lombo
Bitobliss
For a Reason
Lous Lad
Abettorpunt


These are horses who are past winners, havent had a lead up as in NZ, or horses who ran places from one go in a lead up. Lous Lad prob only Sydney FFAer who hasnt had a crack yet either so he entitled to one. Hard to see horses who got two cracks at a lead up getting another go. Mach Beauty would be first in line.

But last two spots, Depends who coming. Ideal Scott a walk up. Fly Like an Eagle a walk up. That's a full field. But Terrorway surely deserves a crack if he is up and about. Mach Alert deserves a crack as well. Not sure Dreadlock Rockstar will get a gig with the numbers. Gold Ace might get a second crack if numbers fade away. Gaius Ceasar won Len Smith?

On closer inspection, maybe Lous Lad will miss. On form Baby Bling would miss but being defending champ maybe not? Maybe the ones coming back from NZ won't be up for it. Maybe Abettorpunt won't come back up. Who knows.

Well done NSWHRC. A superb format! Obviously helped by current depth and younger stars coming through this season, but now all trainers and the public know where they stand and decisions regarding invites are less grey and more clear.

[Richard prior]

Well said Breno, You could probably run another 2 heats with the depth of horses in the mix. I believe that FAR has well and truly done enough to warrant an invite and surely the directors aren't going to make him run around again next week. Not to sure if Mr Stewart is going to bring BOB back up next week as he has a heap of work to do back home. It will certainly be interesting to see the make up of the Cordina Sprint and it's going to be extremely tough for the Directors and their selections.

[mightymo]

I'd have though FAR would have been close to an invite. I seen an article on Restrepo win but nothing on FAR.

Next weeks field would look something like this if they all are targeting.

Smoken Up
Baby Bling
Carribean Blaster
Suave Stuey Lombo
Bitobliss
For a Reason
Lous Lad
Abettorpunt


These are horses who are past winners, havent had a lead up as in NZ, or horses who ran places from one go in a lead up. Lous Lad prob only Sydney FFAer who hasnt had a crack yet either so he entitled to one. Hard to see horses who got two cracks at a lead up getting another go. Mach Beauty would be first in line.

But last two spots, Depends who coming. Ideal Scott a walk up. Fly Like an Eagle a walk up. That's a full field. But Terrorway surely deserves a crack if he is up and about. Mach Alert deserves a crack as well. Not sure Dreadlock Rockstar will get a gig with the numbers. Gold Ace might get a second crack if numbers fade away. Gaius Ceasar won Len Smith?

On closer inspection, maybe Lous Lad will miss. On form Baby Bling would miss but being defending champ maybe not? Maybe the ones coming back from NZ won't be up for it. Maybe Abettorpunt won't come back up. Who knows.

Well done NSWHRC. A superb format! Obviously helped by current depth and younger stars coming through this season, but now all trainers and the public know where they stand and decisions regarding invites are less grey and more clear.

Bitobliss is not coming back to Syd next week and Suave Stuey Lombo is having a freshen up.

Handicappers will generally look at form over the last 6 starts. Almost everyone of those mentioned has either won or been placed in Gr 1 company. The 1 exception is Smoken Up. I know it sounds crazy but he is no shoe in to get a start next week. Personally, i would but Im not a handicapper!

[mightymo]

Ideal Scott, Fly Like an Eagle, Abettorpunt, Baby Bling, Gaius Caesar, Terrorway, Carribean Blaster. These are absolute definites IMO. The remaining 3 spots to come from Smoken Up, Mach Beauty, The Gold Ace, Pure Power, Field Office, Dredlock Rockstar. I think any others are struggling.

PS - im working on the basis For a Reason doesnt need to go round again

[aussiebreno]

Bitobliss is not coming back to Syd next week and Suave Stuey Lombo is having a freshen up.

Handicappers will generally look at form over the last 6 starts. Almost everyone of those mentioned has either won or been placed in Gr 1 company. The 1 exception is Smoken Up. I know it sounds crazy but he is no shoe in to get a start next week. Personally, i woud but Im not a handicapper!last 6 is a convenient number for your horse lol!!

[HaroldParker]

Christen Me hasn't earned his invitation. He should be going around this Saturday.

[HaroldParker]

Terror To Love couldn't win it last year when it was put on a platter for him.

That's another wasted invite for a horse you know is going to be driven negatively.

[Mighty Atom]

Terror To Love couldn't win it last year when it was put on a platter for him.

That's another wasted invite for a horse you know is going to be driven negatively.

Hi Bob, Glad you never mentioned any name there.

[Richard prior]

Bob, Have a look at Terror to Love's run on the 2nd of June on the Harness Jewels day, He ran 1.51 and won untouched. Christen Me's form has been indifferent at his last few starts but there's no doubt about his ability.

[broncobrad]

After a couple more looks at the Restrepo V For A Reason race, I don't think there is a struck match between these two horses. The difference on the night was the exceptional driving ability of G Lang who made full use of the draw, hunting out Mach Beauty to obtain the sit and then not going until he absolutely had to. Restrepo looks to have really furnished into the horse he has always promised to be and is racing like it, but when you have got Gav steering it, well he does have that extra advantage that the other good horses don't. Also assuming FAR gets a spot, how important will barriers be in The Mile? At this stage I am picturing these two drawing away and getting into a streetfight.

Haven't sacked Christen Me yet but his erratic behaviour of late is a concern. His 1.50.5 at Menangle in March still resonates and he did leave Restrepo, I'm Victorious etc in his wake in the Chariots, but just not sure if he is the same horse at present.

[Gtrain]

After a couple more looks at the Restrepo V For A Reason race, I don't think there is a struck match between these two horses. The difference on the night was the exceptional driving ability of G Lang who made full use of the draw, hunting out Mach Beauty to obtain the sit and then not going until he absolutely had to. Restrepo looks to have really furnished into the horse he has always promised to be and is racing like it, but when you have got Gav steering it, well he does have that extra advantage that the other good horses don't. Also assuming FAR gets a spot, how important will barriers be in The Mile? At this stage I am picturing these two drawing away and getting into a streetfight.

Haven't sacked Christen Me yet but his erratic behaviour of late is a concern. His 1.50.5 at Menangle in March still resonates and he did leave Restrepo, I'm Victorious etc in his wake in the Chariots, but just not sure if he is the same horse at present.

More to the point is Restrepo has come a LONG way since that defeat.

[aussiebreno]

After a couple more looks at the Restrepo V For A Reason race, I don't think there is a struck match between these two horses. The difference on the night was the exceptional driving ability of G Lang who made full use of the draw, hunting out Mach Beauty to obtain the sit and then not going until he absolutely had to. Restrepo looks to have really furnished into the horse he has always promised to be and is racing like it, but when you have got Gav steering it, well he does have that extra advantage that the other good horses don't. Also assuming FAR gets a spot, how important will barriers be in The Mile? At this stage I am picturing these two drawing away and getting into a streetfight.

Haven't sacked Christen Me yet but his erratic behaviour of late is a concern. His 1.50.5 at Menangle in March still resonates and he did leave Restrepo, I'm Victorious etc in his wake in the Chariots, but just not sure if he is the same horse at present.

More to the point is Restrepo has come a LONG way since that defeat.And Im Victorious is still looking for a run.

[Richard prior]

Grant & Breno, You both have raised good points, Restrepo & Im Victorious have come a long way since March, The question is, has Christen Me???

[Maorisidol]

No For A Reason in the Cordina this Saturday night...
Do connections assume he is in the MM?

[aussiebreno]

No For A Reason in the Cordina this Saturday night...
Do connections assume he is in the MM?
I reckon he needs to be given a gig.
Top two from this week go in barring some bad luck etc. Third and 4th from this week prob get emergency spots barring bad luck.

[broncobrad]

After a couple more looks at the Restrepo V For A Reason race, I don't think there is a struck match between these two horses. The difference on the night was the exceptional driving ability of G Lang who made full use of the draw, hunting out Mach Beauty to obtain the sit and then not going until he absolutely had to. Restrepo looks to have really furnished into the horse he has always promised to be and is racing like it, but when you have got Gav steering it, well he does have that extra advantage that the other good horses don't. Also assuming FAR gets a spot, how important will barriers be in The Mile? At this stage I am picturing these two drawing away and getting into a streetfight.

Haven't sacked Christen Me yet but his erratic behaviour of late is a concern. His 1.50.5 at Menangle in March still resonates and he did leave Restrepo, I'm Victorious etc in his wake in the Chariots, but just not sure if he is the same horse at present.

More to the point is Restrepo has come a LONG way since that defeat.

We are in total agreement Grant, Restrepo is the real deal, no question marks and is ticking all the boxes.

[Maorisidol]

I reckon he needs to be given a gig.
Top two from this week go in barring some bad luck etc. Third and 4th from this week prob get emergency spots barring bad luck.

Would be a crime if he isn't invited.
Wins 2 races, a 1:50 flat and then a 1:49... Both of those have never been done before in Australia by the same horse.
Trigger did his 1:48.5 or point something but has never got under 1:50 since...

[teecee]

http://www.crandalgety.co.nz/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=956:chisten-me-booked-for-sydney&catid=2:latest-news&Itemid=3

[Maorisidol]

http://www.crandalgety.co.nz/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=956:chisten-me-booked-for-sydney&catid=2:latest-news&Itemid=3

Thnx for that TC,
Would be great to have the 100% Christen Me in the race, not the one who may have galloped recently for different reasons, and same goes for every horse who gets a run.
Makes for an amazing race if all horses can give their 100%

[Richard prior]

For A Reason's owners have made a brave decision by not backing him up on Saturday night in The Cordina Sprint and must be applauded for looking after their horse. I'm pretty sure if he did race, he would have put on a bold showing but this would probably take the sting out of him in the final. With more rain forecast for Sydney this week, It's going to be tough going for the horses that have drawn wide on Saturday night. Smoken Up & Baby Bling have drawn the car park but I have no doubt L. Justice will come out with the handle bars down and if he gets to the lead, Old Triggers always hard to run down.

[The Escape Club]

More to the point is Restrepo has come a LONG way since that defeat.

I think you'll find that Restrepo locked wheels with Keeyang Steamer halfway down the straight and possibly at around the 5 to 600m mark, you could see G.Lang looking down on both occasions. If you watch the replay, they have a pretty good shot of the one in the home straight.

On a side note, I'd say that Restrepo has come a long way since his defeat at the hands of Ballochbuie in December last year, lol.

[broncobrad]

I think you'll find that Restrepo locked wheels with Keeyang Steamer halfway down the straight and possibly at around the 5 to 600m mark, you could see G.Lang looking down on both occasions. If you watch the replay, they have a pretty good shot of the one in the home straight.

On a side note, I'd say that Restrepo has come a long way since his defeat at the hands of Ballochbuie in December last year, lol.

On that performance Robert. you must be wondering why your Miracle Mile invite hasn't arrived in the mail yet, lol (the video quality is poor but that's a nice feather to have in his cap)

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-results.cfm?mc=MH311212&ms=vic#MHC31121208

[Mighty Atom]

Once again,highly suspicious of the barrier draw in the Cordina. You can see the horses that they want to give every chance of making the MM.

[aussiebreno]

Once again,highly suspicious of the barrier draw in the Cordina. You can see the horses that they want to give every chance of making the MM.
Huh? The blokes in the offices in Syd love Smoken Up and Baby Bling and their owners. No way would they give them both the outside draws!

[mightymo]

Huh? The blokes in the offices in Syd love Smoken Up and Baby Bling and their owners. No way would they give them both the outside draws!

Please explain

[aussiebreno]

Please explain
The draw would never be rigged anyway. But for sake of what Mighty Atom said, draw was rigged. But Baby Bling and Smoken Up drew worst two gates, plus Carribean Blaster drew wider as well.

With Adam Fairley working in the building and the horse being the defending champ they are hardly going to rig the draw against Baby Bling.
When Carribean Blaster won VIC Cup NSWHRC went out of way to have circle jerk with Rob Nalder and connections by naming races after them the next week. (ITMQ and connections yet to have that honour bestowed upon him despite winning a bigger race that was actually at Menangle. :confused:) Whats happened in 11 months to rig draw against him?
Smoken Up deservedly so is loved up at Sydney for his feats in Miracle Mile/Len Smith Mile, so much so they named the stables after him. Why would they rig draw against him now?

[The Escape Club]

[/B][/I]

On that performance Robert. you must be wondering why your Miracle Mile invite hasn't arrived in the mail yet, lol (the video quality is poor but that's a nice feather to have in his cap)

http://www.harness.org.au/meeting-results.cfm?mc=MH311212&ms=vic#MHC31121208

Just to show how much he didn't like it, Restrepo came out and broke 2 track records at his next 2 starts including the Central Victorian Championship final at Charlton. I flew from outback Western Australia to Perth, Perth to Melbourne, drove from Melbourne to Geelong and stayed at my brother's place. We drove up to Charlton on the Sunday for the race. They were warming up on the track when the water cart hit the fence and damaged it so there was a half hour or so delay. They finally went back out to start and when the tapes let go it was all over in a second when Ballochbuie galloped and in the process locked wheels with another horse and ruined it's chances too.

I might have to keep my distance in the future.

It's one photo I made sure I got a copy of.

Ended up being a dirty day for Greg Sugars too who was driving, he drove the winner of the next and lost that one to a protest.

[Toohard]

Would be a crime if he isn't invited.
Wins 2 races, a 1:50 flat and then a 1:49... Both of those have never been done before in Australia by the same horse.
Trigger did his 1:48.5 or point something but has never got under 1:50 since...

He nearly did Ash. 4/2/2012 at Melton. Around 3 bends not 2 as well. 3 wide round 2 of them. Ran last mile 1.50.5. No one got anywhere near close to that since. Big ask Saturday night but if anyone can do it he can. Go Trigger!

[Richard prior]

Noticed Beautide had a bit of exercise at Menangle on Tuesday in a trial, Cruised around in 1.53 with lots in the tank. Replay is available on Trots TV.

[p plater]

I was looking at the form experts opinions for Saturday night and was surprised to read this against Smoken Up on Harness.org.au site.

"Grand campaigner who is past his best. Will be sent forward but looks likely to have a torrid run. Could really por on the pressure in the middle stages to try and get in but can see him being posted. Cannot have"

Gee, I thought his last few runs have been great from poor draws. I hope they post the $34 this tipster predicts

[Richard prior]

Ridiculous odds. They say to never write off a champion and the tipster has gone against him at his own peril. Sure it's going to be tough from the draw but it's pouring again in Sydney and any things possible.

[Big Mac]

Heard or read somewhere today, For A Reason just about assured an invite. Does that mean 2nd place tomorrow night gets an invite or does my old mate Bitobliss get a chance.

[Richard prior]

Certainly a lot of intrigue, For a Reason has to be a definite starter you would think. I guess at the very minimum, they could make Bitobliss the 1st reserve if they invited the 2nd horse from the Cordina.

[Maorisidol]

Trigger!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1:49.9
Wow
It's a long time since I was at a track and stood up after the race to clap a Champ.
We'll I am not at Menangle I'm at home and I bloody we'll nearly stood up in my lounge room and clapped, that was fantastic.

[The Escape Club]

Trigger!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1:49.9
Wow
It's a long time since I was at a track and stood up after the race to clap a Champ.
We'll I am not at Menangle I'm at home and I bloody we'll nearly stood up in my lounge room and clapped, that was fantastic.

What a rippa, ran 'em off their legs.

I've been tempted to back him all day at the odds but I've only had money in my account to back my horses. Unfortunately the one in the last which will probably start a lot shorter than what SU was, damn.

Kids came up into the bedroom wondering what I was yelling about.

[Danno]

Too right Ash,
Bravest of the bravest horses, bravest of the bravest runs, what a legend, I thought he was gone when Mach beauty levels up but by gee he just dug in and told Mach Beauty to rack off!! Quite simply marvellous stff you don't see every day! Awesome.!!!

[Big Mac]

Super run from smoken up tonight. Now for the last two invites.

[Toohard]

he nearly did ash. 4/2/2012 at melton. Around 3 bends not 2 as well. 3 wide round 2 of them. Ran last mile 1.50.5. No one got anywhere near close to that since. Big ask saturday night but if anyone can do it he can. Go trigger!

the king of horses. Go trigger!!!

[Richard prior]

The old boy reigns supreme once more and fended off a few of the young pretenders once again. Jesus he's a tough bugger and Mach Beauty was out toughed by the toughest. Truly awesome performance!!

[The Escape Club]

Mach Beauty and For A Reason invited. A Bettor Punt and Bitobliss are reserves.

[Toohard]

I was looking at the form experts opinions for Saturday night and was surprised to read this against Smoken Up on Harness.org.au site.

"Grand campaigner who is past his best. Will be sent forward but looks likely to have a torrid run. Could really por on the pressure in the middle stages to try and get in but can see him being posted. Cannot have"

Gee, I thought his last few runs have been great from poor draws. I hope they post the $34 this tipster predicts

Me too Bailey. I-form? The I stands for ?

[Danno]

Me too Bailey. I-form? The I stands for ?

No Idea?....Idiot....Illinformed?.... certainly not Intel.

See trigger has been installed pre-barrier draw favourite. bet old mate that made that comment is cringing right now.

[Maorisidol]

the king of horses. Go trigger!!!

I tell u what, u must think Trigger will b better for tonites run...
He can lead from any barrier at Menangle if they let him, like Mach Beauty did tonite.
If next week he leads it will take a mighty effort to get past him and they will have to run low 1:49's or 1:48 something.
Had what I thought was a "wishful thinking" fairy tale bet on him to win the MM at $26 about 3 weeks ago, but feel totally different about it now.
The 2 Kiwis will add good new flavor next week, will be intriguing.
It's all about the barrier draw.

[Richard prior]

Dan, You missed one, Imbecile. I wonder if the old mate was a professional form analyst??

[Richard prior]

Good on ya Ash, If the old bloke wins you should have the ticket framed and put it up on the wall. It's truly going to be the best MM ever. One things for certain now that Smoken Up's in it, The pace will be on and they are going to run some time (depending on the weather) and there won't be any room for the faint hearted. A great race of many chances.

[Danno]

Dan, You missed one, Imbecile. I wonder if the old mate was a professional form analyst??

Ha ha your a funny bloke Rich, I was thinking it might have been THE professional form student himself, haven't heard much from him lately, I think he might still be going through the last twenty years or so of Newcastle tapes working it out.

Cheers,
Dan

[Richard prior]

Old mates definitely gone back to school. Somebody mentioned a 100/1 shot in the Newcastle Mile as well and if you fancy a horse at those odds, you should keep it to yourself and good luck if it wins or runs a place, but if it doesn't, it can make you look pretty silly.

[littlelenny]

What a race it will be cant wait till next week. The old warrior showed he wont be denied the chance to try and secure another Miracle Mile he is a true legend of the sport.

[Maorisidol]

Better bet black will run a good race tonight drawn behind the leader definate ew chance at 100-1 and also get the in ire to the Miracle Mile when he wins!
U can understand Marty when u publicly declare things like bettor bet black and they run like 100/1 shots in the above race and his following race, some people may lose their faith in u...

[aussiebreno]

Fantastic Smoken Up.

4 horses from the Chariots but only one from last years Mile.

[p plater]

After barrier draw For a Reason may well be leaders back

Smoken Up 1 and For a reason 2

[teecee]

Mr Johnson...(German et al)
For you info and that of all other members, you were banned from this forum for continually breaching the forum rules drawing infraction warnings to no avail. The initial ban was for 10 days to give you a final chance to abide after a cooling off period. You chose to snub this chance by reregistering under another name which drew an instant permanent ban from this forum. Again you have breached this permanent ban. Again you have been banned for serious breach of the rules.
If you had read the rules of this forum at initial registration as you were required to do and accept this, you would have noted that this forum is more than a place for you to espouse any tipping and/or racereading prowess. Accordingly your supposed ability to predict outcomes is of no relevance to this issue to lift your ban.
As you have continued to break the rules and then snub any consequences, there is no reason at all to allow your account to remain open. In fact it is only fair to other members banned for less than your indiscretions that you will continue to be prohibited from further postings here.

[Richard prior]

When is the barrier draw taking place???

[teecee]

done this afternoon.
I heard via Trackside CM 6, TTL 7,

[Richard prior]

1. Smoken Up
2. For a Reason
3. Mach Beauty
4. Abettorpunt (1st Reserve)
5. Beautide
6. Christen Me
7. Terror to Love
8. Im Victorious
9. Bitobliss (2nd Reserve)
10. Restrepo

[Maorisidol]

Trigger to lead all the way???
As p plater Bailey mentioned earlier FAR May very well sit on Triggers back and have last crack, based on what we have seen of him in his last 3 races the last 400 will have no human seated at Menangle!
As has been seen in previous 1:50 or less races, if u are in the back half of the field u pretty much have buckleys.
If trigger leads any opposition know he will not give away the lead, so why suicide by tackling for it?
The big question, will Mach Beauty b able to cross Trigger? And then can Lance get out and go around Mach?

[sixgoalhero]

Not sure its the best draw for Trigger. I think Mach Beauty may be able to cross and Beautide will come across with it and either go to the front or keep Lance in a pocket.

[Danno]

Trigger to lead all the way???
As p plater Bailey mentioned earlier FAR May very well sit on Triggers back and have last crack, based on what we have seen of him in his last 3 races the last 400 will have no human seated at Menangle!
As has been seen in previous 1:50 or less races, if u are in the back half of the field u pretty much have buckleys.
If trigger leads any opposition know he will not give away the lead, so why suicide by tackling for it?
The big question, will Mach Beauty b able to cross Trigger? And then can Lance get out and go around Mach?

G'day Ash,
I wouldn't assume FAR will end up leaders back, pretty sure Trigger leads, but if he gets out like he did Saturday night and assuming there are some challengers for the early lead
in order for FAR to run a mile similar to his recent super efforts I don't see an opening quarter in 26 in his repertoire, which he will need to do to get on the leaders back and hold it.

will be a great contest, bunch of super horses, one of the best fields ever assembled for this fantastic race which is no interdominion, hunter cup or nz cup, but a wonderful event of a different kind.

[MJA91]

Smoken Up will be doing everything he can to hold up. I think he could have come out faster last night, came across as if he knew the front was there. He does seem to get off the mobile better drawn out wide tho. Mach Beauty will come out flying trying to cross or at least get in on the fence. I think Beautide can win, will float out than eventually sit parked. The way he went at Newcastle he's hard to beat. Takes until he has fully straightened up for Smoken Up to hit top gear, Beautide may be able to get a little margin on the turn and be too good and if Mach Beauty is infront well Beautide will be too good.

Going to be a great race. Beautide to win , but would love to see Smoken Up win.

[HaroldParker]

If Mach Beauty runs the gate like he did last night, he'll cross easily IMO. He had a couple on them after 50m under a gentle hand drive.

Beautide and For A Reason will fight it out.

[HaroldParker]

1E so he's unlikely to gain a start but Abettorpunt has taken the next step. His run at Newcastle and again last night were enormous. 50's or your money back is enticing.

I got on Beautide and For A Reason early Oct @ 25's & 33's. I'll own a cul de sac in NT if either wins : )

[p plater]

Anyone know when the IForm comes out. Should be interesting this week.
So much egg on face, the form could look like an omelette

[Danno]

Anyone know when the IForm comes out. Should be interesting this week.
So much egg on face, the form could look like an omelette

Too right Bailey,
professional form students have been taking a bit of a bashing lately, there are none so blind as those that will not see!

In reality it must be a bugger of a job, which would explain that those that have been doing it for a while are a little more cautious about writing off the chances of some, however it would have to have been a very green potato to write off SU, not just on his overall record, but his recent efforts were tough to the max without one skerrick of luck and not getting beaten very far.

Very green Potato indeed!

[Pena]

Why was there no change of tactics for Mach Beauty on Saturday night.
There have been posts in this forum previously about the Excel Stride vs Mach Beauty that talked about we don't hand up coming from the Tritton camp.
Low and behold, Mach Beautty hands up on Saturday and there is not even a mention in the Stewards Report.
I hate the COT rule, but its either a rule or not and in this case has been selectively used.
Perhaps the McCarthy vs Tritton is the reason and Team Tritton have no history with Justice or perhaps they realised that the way the horse was being driven was ridiculous, but if the rule is in why did the stewards not investigate.

[Pena]

You are kidding again German.
Mach Beauty was going to lead on its ear, but Mark Jones made a decision to take a sit.
This horse has been driven to lead at all costs in every start and took a sit even though it could have led.
Was it a smart decision? Absolutely, I doubt Panella would have used the same nouse.
Was it a change in tactic? Absolutely, this horse has never handed up and if you watch the replay you can see Mach Beauty was a mile in front of Smoken Up and Jones eased it for a trail.
Although we know how good a judge you are Marty, For A Reason was no chance to make the Miracle Mile. It was going to be unplaced in its next group start.
He is now second favourite for the race, great call.

[Richard prior]

Pretty smart drive by Mark Jones as you say Jack, if you take Smoken Up on in Mach beauty's usual racing fashion, there's every chance that you will be burnt. I thought that MB went pretty good the other night and a few of the guys had mentioned previously, that they would like to see the horse driven with a bit of cover or a bit quieter. It was probably the difference between making the final and not for MB.

[2minuteman]

Have been following thread with interest and noting the selections.
A problem has arisen,has some mad butcher chopped a leg off of Terror to Love?
Appears friendless so I went back and had another look at the N.Z. Cup and sure enough the result was still the same.
As good a staying effort as was S.Up's Cordina sprint win I rank TTL's effort over 2 miles as good,if not better.
We know that the MM will be a staying test with SU there and my feeling is that this will suit TTL,provided he is driven with some patience early.
Am I on the wrong tram here?

[Richard prior]

Hi Ron, If you get a chance, have a look at his run on Jewels day (2nd June) over the mile, the quality of opposition is nowhere near as strong as the MM field, but a pretty damn impressive win in 1.51.0. I wouldn't say that your on the wrong tram, as there are lots of chances. I would describe it as a train with 8 carriages and it's just a matter of picking one. There's no doubting his class that's for sure.

[Richard prior]

Watched a trial from Menangle yesterday on Trots TV that included Im Victorious & Christen Me, they went around pretty easy and finished off nicely. IV won the trial and CM, after being driven a bit quieter, finished off nicely to run 3rd.

[2minuteman]

[QUOTE= I would describe it as a train with 8 carriages and it's just a matter of picking one.
Agree,6 live chances,best field for years.At the odds TTL is my go.I would love SU to win but fav. from the 1 not a proposition (IMO) but as Toohard says if he is in front with 50 to go,tune in.






0

[Smoken]

Hi to all.
What do you guys think the first split will be, & what sectionals will be required to give the other horses a chance of running over the top of the front horses? I pray Smoken Up wins, but i am thinking he really would need a 29sec, second quarter to achieve the win. Your thoughts?
Cheers

[Richard prior]

1st Quarter will probably be a scorcher in around 26.0, maybe quicker.

[Smoken]

1st Quarter will probably be a scorcher in around 26.0, maybe quicker.

I agree mate. Just hope he can get a similar second quarter to last week. The second quarter will play a big role. Magical race, can't wait!

[Maorisidol]

With Trigger on the pole who could keep the lead, or b crossed by Mach Beauty, there is no horse I don't think that will come out looking for the lead and use lots of energy at the start because those 2 will dominate and both be going sub 26. Trigger will want to hold at all costs, and Mach will want to cross. Beautide may come out and see if Mach can cross, and then give up the lead to Beau, but if Trigger holds, Beau is in trouble in the death more likely.
However if Mach does cross, and He and Trigger get a length or so in front, Lance will pop out and go for the lead. Mach would b silly not to hand up and Beau may still b in the death and as Luke McCarthy said on In The Gig he just wants to land a length or so from the leaders, so 2 or 3 pegs would b fine for him, or one out one back.
So, if more than likely they are the first 4 running low 1:49 or less, and every other horse is at least 2lengths behind while the leaders are running those times, who the hell is gonna come from behind to run even faster than that?
Lance said Trigger has more to improve on his 1:49.9 last week and could have gone faster, but will b handle bars down from barrier rise this week, no easing up.

[The Escape Club]

Best field I've seen for a long, long time. Luckily I'll get home from work just in time to watch it. Can't wait.

Beautide coming out of 5 battled with Mach Beauty for the lead at Newcastle in a 26.2 first quarter, took the trail and then popped out into the death at the bell and then burnt past at the end of the back straight. He was hardly touched going to the line to win by 8.5m. The first three quarters of the 2 races (Newcastle and Cordina) were very similar. Smoken Up working hard and home in 26.6, Beautide under no pressure home in 29.1. Can Beautide find the extra under pressure? He's coming out of the same gate as he did in Newcastle, this time he has Mach Beauty and Smoken Up inside him.

The records at Menangle for these 2 horses is amazing, we've all heard about Smoken Up's but Beautide has had 13 starts for 8 wins, 4 seconds and a 4th. I've watched all of them(my horse has run against him a few times and my cousins did too.) Courage To Rule had his measure early on but once Beautide had the advantage of the draw he beat him and just continued on improving.

I hope the 3 week break hasn't dulled him a bit.

[Smoken]

What are the chances of Mach Beauty actually trying to hold the lead even if he crosses Smoken Up? Suicide?

[Richard prior]

Just heard that Mach Beauty isn't going to hand up to Smoken Up, Didn't they learn anything from last weeks run??

[Smoken]

Exactly my thoughts RP! Surely he(Tritton) cannot be serious... If he is, I believe that is as good as suicide! Good night Irene to Mach Beauty! Insanity!

[aussiebreno]

I don't think Lance will swallow that one as easy as you two!

[Smoken]

I guess we shall find out tomorrow, but logic must prevail regarding Mach Beauty.

[p plater]

Just heard that Mach Beauty isn't going to hand up to Smoken Up, Didn't they learn anything from last weeks run??

After the vastly improved result last week, I think the stewards will be watching very closely if Mach Beauty did try and hold the lead. The pressure will be enormous from SU

[Richard prior]

I've never seen Lance as relaxed as he was last week. Made a big statement before the race and backed it up on the track. Rapt that old Triggers in the race as cracking pace is assured. Tritton's trying to sow the seed of doubt but I don't think Smoken Up is to concerned with Mach Beauty, when it got down to the nitty gritty last week, old Trigger just clenched his teeth and growled at Mach Beauty, so the physiological advantage is with Trigger.

[brent_L]

After the vastly improved result last week, I think the stewards will be watching very closely if Mach Beauty did try and hold the lead. The pressure will be enormous from SU

Couldn't agree more that they (stewards) should be watching closely. MB has to be given every chance to perform as well as possible and after comparing his previous runs to that of the Cordina performance, he SHOULD be taking a sit. I am just miffed that nothing was said after he handed over to SU......totally unexpected, and probably the main reason the winner started at such long odds. if even thought there was a smidgen of a chance the lead was gonna be there for Lance, some of my $$ would have gone on.

[Richard prior]

It was a pretty smart drive on Mach Beauty last week, IMO the difference between making the final or being run into the ground by Smoken Up. Before last weeks Cordina, There were probably a few doubters (I was one) on how SU was travelling, he'd been racing well in Victoria from ordinary draws, but get him back onto the big track and it's a whole different ball game. He was astonishing last week and as I mentioned in an earlier post, you should never under estimate a champion and that's exactly what old Trigger is.

[broncobrad]

Would really LOVE to know what the weather is doing down there right now. Two wks ago my picks were FAR, Christen Me, Beautide. Things have changed. For A Reason still gets it by a nose, Smoken Up 2nd and Christen Me 3rd. But sentiment and respect sways me to Trigger and he will be carrying my dollars and hopes and fair dinkum he will bring the house down if he wins. Go the old champ, you are still a whipper snapper compared to old Double Agent.

[Richard prior]

Brad, A little overcast with the chance of a morning shower and supposed to be around 25. The clouds fairly high and uneven, and there's a cool breeze blowing. Not wrong about old Trigger, It will blow the roof off the new stand if he gets up.

[broncobrad]

Brad, A little overcast with the chance of a morning shower and supposed to be around 25. The clouds fairly high and uneven, and there's a cool breeze blowing. Not wrong about old Trigger, It will blow the roof off the new stand if he gets up.

Thanks Richard, hope it stays that way. A fair racing surface really is demanded for possibly the all time best Miracle Mile ever assembled. Am sure there will be some hardluck stories but hope they all get a fair shot at doing their best. Forgot to add, would love to put Restrepo in amongst the chances but 4 just doesn't go into three.

[Richard prior]

No worries Brad, It's very similar to the afternoon of the Newcastle mile. I was hoping for a nice warm clear day also. Had an omen the other day, a Kookaburra nearly landed in my lap when I was out on the balcony for a nicotine fix, never seen it here in Sydney in 20 years, next to a fairly busy road. Michael Brennan( Im Victorious) was a gun hockey player for the Kooka's and this has really done my head in, Will have to include IV in an exotic even though he's drawn poorly in a tough race.

[Mighty Atom]

Terror To Love.

[djgood]

Have not heard but have they put guards on the horses and for how long?

[Richard prior]

Yep, retention barn set up apparently.

[djgood]

Yep, retention barn set up apparently.

But how long for ? 24 hours ?48?

[p plater]

Have not heard but have they put guards on the horses and for how long?

Security on from 6am. Horses to arrive 3 hours before race

[djgood]

So no detention really just get there earlier ,a joke really

[Big Mac]

Great win Beautide. Just shows, quickest way home is on the pegs.

[Richard prior]

Huge turn of foot down the straight, thought Christen Me had it for a bit and then, WHOOSH. Awesome win by Beautide.

[Smoken]

Well done to beautide! Smoken Up definitely did not run to his capabilities.. Strange! Leaders seem to be dropping of like flies, without setting crazy sectionals.. I thought the times would be much quicker..

[Maorisidol]

Well done to beautide! Smoken Up definitely did not run to his capabilities.. Strange! Leaders seem to be dropping of like flies, without setting crazy sectionals.. I thought the times would be much quicker..

Apparently Lance said after the race that he knew he wasn't gonna be right as soon as he stepped onto the track...
Will his last race b the Vic Cup in 2 weeks???
Great effort Beautide, huge run Christen Me. We have a great future in store for us with this bunch

[Smoken]

That is very interesting, because after looking at the replay 5 times, that is very strange for Smoken Up to just compound like that.. 149.9 last week, tonight the winner went 150.2, with much quicker times expected..
I reckon you might be right in regards to the Vic cup.
I am selfish, & would love to see Trigger race forever, unfortunately time catches up with everything.. The memories he has given me are priceless :)

I hope the Champ is all ok!

[Messenger]

I hate to be a killjoy but the race will not go down in history as memorable. The winner driven for luck and got it. (sorry)

Night may be memorable for McCarthy's incredible effort

[p plater]

Maybe like those of us who are getting older, SU may not back up weekly any more. His run last week still sticks in my mind...outstanding. I think I will wait and see before writing him off.

[Smoken]

I agree with both Messenger and p plater.
I keep forgetting that he is 11yrs of age, & then I snap back to reality lol. Could be very well that he just needs more time to recover(logical) or something was wrong with him tonight, which I hope not!! I can't wait to see him race again God willing!

[sixgoalhero]

I reckon Lance will take trigger back home to Globe Derby for his final run in the SA Cup. Was a great move by Rattray to go back to the pegs, he only just made it in there before Im Victorious got to that spot.

[Smoken]

This is what Lance said..
He needs a fortnight between runs these days. He was just a bit tired in the warm up and didn't have the zip of last week."
Hope to see mighty Trigger's next race!

[Richard prior]

I wonder if Smoken Up was based in Sydney between the Cordina and the MM final?? Congrats to Beautide's connections but as Messenger mentioned, it won't stick in the memory as an outstanding MM, very disappointed with the time.

[Smoken]

You can't do more than win, so congrats to Beautide again, but over all disappointing..
Just goes to show what a Monster Smoken Up is to have run 148.5 and 149.9 from pillar to post..
Maybe people's expectations are to high in regards to matching or bettering
Smoken Up's time, including myself. It is obviously a very very hard thing to achieve!
Now I see why Lance said on rsn radio, he would have really preferred for the miracle mile to have been run a fortnight after the Cordina Sprint... He really knows his horse!

[Richard prior]

I reckon that 1.48.5 will be the benchmark for a while, the 1.50 mark will be chipped away gradually but to crack 1.48.5 will take a super performance. At least 5 or 6 of the field off 10(including the emergencies) are capable of cracking 1.50 in the right conditions, 2 have already done it. It was certainly a super performance when old Trigger ran that time.

[Mitch]

There are some tough critics on here!

I thought it was a fantastic race. The time was the 4th fastest mile ever recorded in Australia and a race record. The drive on Beautide to win was tactically astute, the effort of Christen Me to kick clear from the chair was huge and the lead up to race with the hype around Smoken Up quite exciting. If its all about times why not make the MM a time trial?

[broncobrad]

I'm with you Mitch...I wonder what is expected here, some sort of Miracle. I thought it was a grand race, no walk in the park. Most got a fair shot at their chance, Restrepo excluded. I will always be wondering what if FAR stayed on the markers, would it have been different. At the time when Luke pushed off, I thought it was the right thing to do, no driving for luck there, gave it every chance...but Beautide sticks to the markers unimpeded and duly wins and pretty bloody emphatically at that. Saw the guts of Christen Me, confirmed TTL and Menangle just don't mix, cannot say a bad word against SU (Lance has already given us the background), IV was no disgrace and Mach Beauty was surrounded by depth.

Just because they don't run sub 50 is a pretty poor reflection on the regard held for these great horses. James Rattray looked pretty happy about it all when he crossed the line. I was happy that the best horse on the night won the race.

Belinda Mc's training performance on the night was unbelievable. Great night and a great call by Fred. 10/10 all round.

[Danno]

Gotta agree with everything Mitch said there, the fastest MM in history, widely acknowledged as the possibly the best field ever assembled, won by an absolute superstar on the way up with the aid of a beautiful drive........with regards to breaking the 1:48.5, I think we might need to remind ourselves about when other barriers were broken through and how long it took to lower those standards, barriers like 2.00 mile and 1:55 mile. We may see Smoken Up's 1:48.5 broken in the next few years but don't expect it.

Went down last night, great atmosphere for Menangle, great result for the Rattray family.

Cheers,
Dan

[Richard prior]

Hi Mitch, It certainly was a great spectacle, I was just a little disappointed with the time, but that's a personal thing I guess. As you say, it's not about the time, it's about the spectacle. What I really like is apart from Beautide's great win, was that the horses came from all over the country and NZ which is great for the sport.

[Messenger]

There are some tough critics on here!

I thought it was a fantastic race. The time was the 4th fastest mile ever recorded in Australia and a race record. The drive on Beautide to win was tactically astute, the effort of Christen Me to kick clear from the chair was huge and the lead up to race with the hype around Smoken Up quite exciting. If its all about times why not make the MM a time trial?

I was no doubt harsh Mitch but I still don't think it was memorable. Unless you have backed the winner IMO you remember winners that run the opposition off their legs, or do it super tough, or flash home out wide - Beautide was impressive but it was the equivalent of a sprint lane win (never memorable). It was a great field but the hype was greatly assisted by SU running time last week. If it wasn't about time it would be run over a longer distance

[Smoken]

I believe quick times has everything to do with it, it is the Miracle Mile after all, hence all the hype during the week, & as Messenger said, that was due to Trigger running 149.9. The hype wasn't about running in the 1.50's..
Beautide did a Baby Bling, & good luck to him, but memorable it will be for the hype during the week, not the race. Now i will always be wondering what could have been if Smoken Up was up to scratch, which clearly he wasn't. That's life :)

[HaroldParker]

Typical Lance Justice. However it beats his old chestnut "he only got beaten because I went too slow in front". Last week he had Mach Beauty sitting on him, nothing to his outside. This week he had Christen Me to his outside with For A Reason and Beautide stalking = chalk and cheese. The old boy was overwhelmed this week.

The 3 best horses in the race dominated. Time is for people in jail.

[brent_L]

Best horse won. Gutsy drive to go to the fence, although the way the race panned out I reckon he still wins with cover from CM.
As to the race being boring/uneventful, i haven't seen anyone query the speed of the mobile. (apologies if someone has and I missed it). At that pace (mobile) a horses gate speed is of absolutely no significance. If the mobile was to always travel that quick we'd have as many pole markers leading as Gloucester Park does......my opinion anyhow.
Congrats to Beautide team as well as the McCarthy juggernaut.

[Smoken]

So would those 2 horses have beaten Smoken Up last week? They ran 150.2 last night..
I'm certain Smoken Up didn't stop like he did, due to the fact that CM was on his outside. There is no other horse that fights like he does. He simply was not himself last night.

[littlelenny]

Great win and congralutions to Rattray family Beautide has stepped up to every challenge so far and after his Newcastle and Miracle Mile wins i think theres no doubt that he is the real deal.
In regards to the champ Smoken Up it was quite obvious he felt the pinch from his big run 7 days earlier, no doubt if the MM was next week he would of being in the finish up to his eye balls. Christen Me sitting outside him would of only helped him to dig deeper and fight like like no other.
It was also good to see the real Christen Me turn up.

[Maorisidol]

Typical Lance Justice. However it beats his old chestnut "he only got beaten because I went too slow in front". Last week he had Mach Beauty sitting on him, nothing to his outside. This week he had Christen Me to his outside with For A Reason and Beautide stalking = chalk and cheese. The old boy was overwhelmed this week.

The 3 best horses in the race dominated. Time is for people in jail.

Bob that's a load of bollocks.
If u can't see that Smoken Up simply performed below his best then i overestimate your knowledge of the trots.
Last week he had a faster first quarter, ran faster all up and fought harder than last night.
This week he had an easier first 400, was never challenged, had every chance and was gone at the 200, RUNNING SLOWER TIMES!!!!!!! That equals, not the same horse performing at the same level, the level has reduced, his time was slower...
doesn't matter if Christen Me was sitting where he did, irrelevant, Dexter put no pressure on him at all until the final turn, Trigger simply didn't run up to what he can

[aussiebreno]

Bob that's a load of bollocks.
If u can't see that Smoken Up simply performed below his best then i overestimate your knowledge of the trots.
Last week he had a faster first quarter, ran faster all up and fought harder than last night.
This week he had an easier first 400, was never challenged, had every chance and was gone at the 200, RUNNING SLOWER TIMES!!!!!!! That equals, not the same horse performing at the same level, the level has reduced, his time was slower...
doesn't matter if Christen Me was sitting where he did, irrelevant, Dexter put no pressure on him at all until the final turn, Trigger simply didn't run up to what he can
Smoken Up may not have been at his best, but I think The top three have his measure anyhow. Which is fair enough to, he is 11 year old.

[Maorisidol]

Smoken Up may not have been at his best, but I think The top three have his measure anyhow. Which is fair enough to, he is 11 year old.

Run last nites race Brenno 7 days ago and do u think THAT Trigger would have finished 12.7m behind running fifth in 1:50.2?
Simply not, based on him leading (like he did in both races) and running 1:49.9, he was a 13-14m better horse.
However of course his end is nigh no doubt and Melton is not his favorite track so unless he can freshen up AND get the lead in the Vic Cup, I reckon he's won his last race last week... Would love to b proved wrong tho...
Do we know if Christen Me and TTL will b stayin around for the Vic? And how about I'm Victorious?

[aussiebreno]

Run last nites race Brenno 7 days ago and do u think THAT Trigger would have finished 12.7m behind running fifth in 1:50.2?
Simply not, based on him leading (like he did in both races) and running 1:49.9, he was a 13-14m better horse.
However of course his end is nigh no doubt and Melton is not his favorite track so unless he can freshen up AND get the lead in the Vic Cup, I reckon he's won his last race last week... Would love to b proved wrong tho...
Do we know if Christen Me and TTL will b stayin around for the Vic? And how about I'm Victorious?Mach Beauty made Smoken Up earn his victory last week. Beautide cruised to an easy victory at Newcastle beating Mach Beauty by 15m.
Mach Beauty has a habit of being resoundingly beaten by For A Reason in the last month. For him to get so close to Trigger last week, we all know how much Trigger finds when headed but its probable For A Reason most probably would have gone past him. Draw the same lines with Abettorpunt at Newcastle compared to last week as well and dust and manner beaten.
Times aren't be all and end all. Especially at Menangle, discrepancies occur. Obviously it was rain affected, but just to highlight, For A Reason has ran pretty much spot on 1.50 in three of his four starts, but got beaten in 1.54.5.

[Maorisidol]

Mach Beauty made Smoken Up earn his victory last week. Beautide cruised to an easy victory at Newcastle beating Mach Beauty by 15m.
Mach Beauty has a habit of being resoundingly beaten by For A Reason in the last month. For him to get so close to Trigger last week, we all know how much Trigger finds when headed but its probable For A Reason most probably would have gone past him. Draw the same lines with Abettorpunt at Newcastle compared to last week as well and dust and manner beaten.
Times aren't be all and end all. Especially at Menangle, discrepancies occur. Obviously it was rain affected, but just to highlight, For A Reason has ran pretty much spot on 1.50 in three of his four starts, but got beaten in 1.54.5.

If u watch what Mach did at Newcastle and how far he and Beau went crazy in the first 400-600or so, obviously Mach had zip left in the tank. Compare Mach against Trigger last week, he popped out to lead and put the brakes on straight away, then had the easy sit on Triggers back and proved to me anyway, he is better with a sit...against these guys.

[Smoken]

The fact that remains that Trigger definitely was not right last night, regardless of the reason/s. That is common sense.
Some people are saying the track was affected a little bit, and others are saying it was great.. Which one was it?

[aussiebreno]

If u watch what Mach did at Newcastle and how far he and Beau went crazy in the first 400-600or so, obviously Mach had zip left in the tank. Compare Mach against Trigger last week, he popped out to lead and put the brakes on straight away, then had the easy sit on Triggers back and proved to me anyway, he is better with a sit...against these guys.

Just in same vein that Mach Beauty had easier run in Cordina than Newcastle, Trigger had an easier run in the Cordina than that of Beautide at Newcastle. Abettorpunt made no impression on Beautide in a 29.2 final quarter at Newcastle when race run to suit back markers, but ran to a length of Trigger in a 26.6 quarter last week.
Trigger is going bloody unreal for an 11yo and shouldn't be doing what he is doing, but lets be fair to the top three from last night, they now have his measure.

[Richard prior]

Smoken, Not a drop of rain around Sydney all day Saturday and a nice breeze should have dried the track out more than sufficiently.

[Smoken]

Thanks Richard. I guess the track wasn't affected at all then!

[littlelenny]

Totally agree with Ash Mach Beauty driven with a sit is a different horse in the Cordina he improved his personal best time for the mile by about 1 full second. When he leads he rolls along at a quick tempo and he just cant come home in the sub 55 needed its more like 56+. He took a sit on Smoken ups back in the Cordina and came home in 54.78 that is similiar times to what For a reason is running home in.

[HaroldParker]

So would those 2 horses have beaten Smoken Up last week? They ran 150.2 last night..
I'm certain Smoken Up didn't stop like he did, due to the fact that CM was on his outside. There is no other horse that fights like he does. He simply was not himself last night.

No, I'm saying that every horse in last nights race with the exception of Mach Beauty would of beaten Smoken Up comfortably in the Cordina. In fact the best run in the Cordina was Abettorpunt first over. The young bloke on him was flushed out at the half by Fly Like An Eagle who was going nowhere. The young blokes inexperience on the big stage showed up again last night too. Very promising driver but he got schooled.

& having spent 4 of the last 6 years working a stones throw from Yonkers and a half hour from the Big M, times wise, some nights are more conducive to faster times than others. I wasn't there last night but I was the week before where it was quite still and warmer. I hear it was a little chilly out there last night.

[Smoken]

Every horse would have beaten him apart from MB? Based on what?
So if Smoken Up could have gone even quicker as Lance said, would they still been able to beat him?
Last night they could have run quicker times yet they didn't, & the weather and track obviously were fine. Do you think Smoken Up raced to his natural abilities last night, & if he did, would have he had a good chance of winning?

[aussiebreno]

You can make excuses all you want, but Mach Beauty just isn't as good as the rest of the field at this stage. $44 outsider and finishing position show this.
There are three references. Mach Beauty, Abettorpunt, and last nights race with the actual horses involved which show the top three have Smoken Ups measure.
What shows Smoken Ip should have won?
A timing difference is o ly pointer. The timing difference also shows Trigger went 1.48.5 April 2011. Rohan Home btn 11m. So based on times Rohan Home would have won last nights race. Based on times, For A Reason wins in sub 1.50 earlier this month so he should have won. But remember times can vary, just look at For A Reason beaten in 1.54.5. So timing difference is irrelevant.

[Toohard]

Typical Lance Justice. However it beats his old chestnut "he only got beaten because I went too slow in front". Last week he had Mach Beauty sitting on him, nothing to his outside. This week he had Christen Me to his outside with For A Reason and Beautide stalking = chalk and cheese. The old boy was overwhelmed this week.

The 3 best horses in the race dominated. Time is for people in jail.

Typical Lance Justice??? FFS! He was asked a question and he gave his honest answer. What do you want him to do?

Since his very first run back all his knockers have done nothing but bag him. All the 'experts' and the usual critics. Even up to a week ago it went on. But they all jumped back on or went very quiet last week.

Was told before we left no horse has ever run in that Cordina race and won the MM a week later.
Hard for any horse to back up. Didn't stop us travelling up. Story about him Friday in Melbourne paper. Double page pic of him and story in Sydney paper Saturday. Harness racing hardly ever rates a mention in either.

After all that had gone before, just seeing him walk out on the track Saturday night was magic. Just magic.

No excuses from us. He obviously wasn't his usual self to us but all honours to the winner.

Last went to Menangle in March for Interdom. Lots of building works going on then. It's come a long way since. Looks great.

Apart from my son getting some sort of gastro thing at 3am Saturday morning and throwing his gut contents up for next 3 hours, we had a great time. Looking a bit doubtful we'd get to the track for a while. Reckon multiple fractures wouldn't have stopped him being there so no way a stomach upset was going to.

Caught up with some people on here and also with others we'd met on previous trips that remembered us.

Son was a bit flat when we started the trip home early yesterday. Stopped for breakfast somewhere. Sitting on the grass outside eating it. Saw a car and float drive in with a cart on the back. Parked just near us. Lance and Trigger. Went over and said hello. In a hurry to get the horse home but still took time to have a chat to us. That sparked me son up.

From the little I know of the man... thats typical Lance Justice.

[doinmabest]

Hi Paul, sorry I didn't get to catch up properly when I bumped Luke and yourself. It was nice to see you both albeit fleetingly.


I bet he was thrilled to catch up with Lance on the way home mate, it would of made his trip....


All the best and might see you in March

[Smoken]

I like reading everyone's opinions, as I try seeing things from there perspective, but i still cannot see why some people seem to think that the big 3, or even the rest of the field apart from MB have Triggers measure... Is it simply because they are half his age or younger? If Smoken Up was 8 or 9, would the same things being said in regards to the Champ, even be said to begin with? I am sticking to 'my' opinion that Trigger was most definitely not himself at all, regardless of his age.
P.s Paul, your son is one if the most loyal fans of Trigger!
Great stuff!

[aussiebreno]

I like reading everyone's opinions, as I try seeing things from there perspective, but i still cannot see why some people seem to think that the big 3, or even the rest of the field apart from MB have Triggers measure... Is it simply because they are half his age or younger? If Smoken Up was 8 or 9, would the same things being said in regards to the Champ, even be said to begin with? I am sticking to 'my' opinion that Trigger was most definitely not himself at all, regardless of his age.
P.s Paul, your son is one if the most loyal fans of Trigger!
Great stuff!
You and maorisidol (the bloke who argued with me for months about ITMQ chances in the ID) can keep sticking to your opinion.
I'll keep sticking to mine, backing ITMQ and Beautide.

It's not his age, it's his form. Triggers form from 2-5 years ago probably wins the race. His form isn't as good now.

I don't know many other horses who can run 5th btn 12m after leading get the benefit of doubt that they are in fact currently better than the horse who won. Bit disrespectful to the winner imo.

[Smoken]

So if IMTQ for instance had a race to suit, but ran a shocker, would that then mean, something was wrong with him, or he just ain't good enough anymore in this level? Triggers past 5 starts, apart from mm, have been massive, especially his 4ths!
Beautide and every other horse deserves respect, no disrespect to any of them, but why is it wrong to say that Trigger is as good ATM as the rest of them? If I was talking about Triggers form from 2-5 yrs ago, I don't think most people would be mentioning any of the other horses in the same league as Trigger. He was nearly unbeatable, & even the flashy gazelle ITMQ couldn't get past him after having a fantastic sit.. They didn't even smash the clock that night, imagine ITMQ ran in LSM, which Trigger ran 148.5.. No horse that night would have beaten him, not even if they were Superhorse! FOR winning by 20 metres, after being back in his usual spot managed 149.4 a few weeks back.. Trigger 149.9 in the Cordina. Let's not forget that Trigger is the only horse who has led from pillar to post running these times, which puts him in a different league altogether.

[aussiebreno]

So if IMTQ for instance had a race to suit, but ran a shocker, would that then mean, something was wrong with him, or he just ain't good enough anymore in this level? Triggers past 5 starts, apart from mm, have been massive, especially his 4ths!
Beautide and every other horse deserves respect, no disrespect to any of them, but why is it wrong to say that Trigger is as good ATM as the rest of them? If I was talking about Triggers form from 2-5 yrs ago, I don't think most people would be mentioning any of the other horses in the same league as Trigger. He was nearly unbeatable, & even the flashy gazelle ITMQ couldn't get past him after having a fantastic sit.. They didn't even smash the clock that night, imagine ITMQ ran in LSM, which Trigger ran 148.5.. No horse that night would have beaten him, not even if they were Superhorse!
Depends on the situation re a horse running a 'shocker'. As I've been over, there are enough tie ins with Mach Beauty, Abettorpunt form that the result on Saturday night in the MM was indicative of where each horse is at. There has to be a passing of the crown at some stage and I think Sat night was certaintly it.
Have a look at the result, you can't say Smoken Up is as good as Beautide at the moment. A 12m margin says that. FAR has owned Mach Beauty lately. Mach Beauty doesn't run within a length of FAR from many tries. Yet he runs within a length of Smoken Up. FAR would have ran down Smoken Up last week. Just as FAR went past Smoken Up on Sat night. All pointers say FAR is better than Smoken Up. Beautide has beaten FAR (who has ran sub 1.50) 2/2 now, running straight past him on Sat night. Currently, Beautide is going a lot better than Smoken Up.
All indicators say Beautide would have won Cordina beating Smoken Up, and this was proved on Sat night in the Miracle Mile. Beautide is currently better than Smoken Up (over a mile at Menangle, Beautide is untested in this level over anything else), and has his measure.

This isn't an attack on Smoken Up. Nothing to be ashamed about running 5th in 1.50.2 as an 11yo. His best days just behind him, when he was at his peak the TAB wouldn't have offered a Miracle Mile win bet market, the market would have simply been pick the margin!!!

[Smoken]

Look at the horses over all they have been running against mate, apart from Newcastle mile, beautide has been running against who? I wouldn't say he is better than FAR at all in this company, better on the night for sure. FOR did nothing really up the straight, yet still ran 3rd. Why does everyone assume that if it was any other horse on the back of a trigger in the Cordina, they would have won? If Smoken Up had won his last 4 or 5, would the same thing be even be said? It seems as though, Trigger has to reproduce 3 or more amazing wins in a row, or not far apart from each other, to even be considered dangerous.. I guess I'm Victorious even has Triggers measure now based on the MM..

[aussiebreno]

Look at the horses over all they have been running against mate, apart from Newcastle mile , beautide has been running against who? Irrelevant, he has now won against the best of the best. I wouldn't say he is better than FAR at all in this company, better on the night for sure. Better 2/2 now. It's on the night that matters. FOR did nothing really up the straight, yet still ran 3rd. Why does everyone assume that if it was any other horse on the back of a trigger in the Cordina, they would have won? Oh FFS how many times does the form reference with Mach Beauty and Abettorpunt, plus the actual Miracle Mile result need to be mentioned. Tell me why, if Beautide, Christen Me, or FAR were in the Cordina Smoken Up would have won? If Smoken Up had won his last 4 or 5, would the same thing be even be said? He didn't win his last 4 or 5 though, because he isn't as great as he once was. That is why Beautide and co now have his measure. Lets talk in the real world, not in a land of what ifs. It seems as though, Trigger has to reproduce 3 or more amazing wins in a row, or not far apart from each other, to even be considered dangerous.. He started about $3.50-$4...I think he is considered dangerous and will be dangerous again once the Vic Cup comes along I guess I'm Victorious even has Triggers measure now based on the MM That's just being petty..
.

[Smoken]

Beautide beat a high quality field, yes, that's not the main question here. I will ask you directly, do you think Smoken Up raced to his level? If not, why? No one is denying he is not as lethal as he was 2-5 yrs ago, that is common sense due to logic, i have been stating from the very start that you can't assess Trigger based on that run in the MM, as he was not himself! How can Trigger be dangerous in the Vic
Cup, if clearly Many others have his measure now? unless you secretly believe he did not run up to his standard.. When Beautife and FAR were caning MB, MB was going ballistic up front, so comparing is quite theoretical like everything we are talking about here.. If FAR or Beautide were on the back of Smoken Up last week, I will ask you, how do you know that Smoken Up wouldn't have won and why? It could have gone so many different ways, like Trigger breaking them, taking the sting out of there sprint etc etc etc...
According to you, he is pretty much done and dusted in the elite level.
I guess reality is a subjective view point, regardless of anyone's opinions.

[aussiebreno]

Beautide beat a high quality field, yes, that's not the main question here. Beautides opposition at his previous starts weren't the main question either but you still brought that up from nowhere. I will ask you directly, do you think Smoken Up raced to his level? If not, why? Pretty obvious my position from my earlier posts. No one is denying he is not as lethal as he was 2-5 yrs ago, that is common sense due to logic, i have been stating from the very start that you can't assess Trigger based on that run in the MM, as he was not himself! You keep saying that but offer up nothing as to why. Says it all really. I guess reality is a subjective view point, regardless of anyone's opinions.
.

[aussiebreno]

How can Trigger be dangerous in the Vic
Cup, if clearly Many others have his measure now? Beautide untested over anything more than a mile at this level, don't know make up of Vic Cup, will FAR, Christen Me be there? unless you secretly believe he did not run up to his standard.. When Beautife and FAR were caning MB, MB was going ballistic up front, so comparing is quite theoretical like everything we are talking about here.. Mach Beauty did not go ballistic up front in Miracle and I like how you ignore Abettorpunt. If FAR or Beautide were on the back of Smoken Up last week, I will ask you, how do you know that Smoken Up wouldn't have won and why? FFS I've answered that numerous times, you have not backed up your opinion once It could have gone so many different ways, like Trigger breaking them, asking the sting out of there sprint etc etc etc... Coulda woulda shoulda like Smoken Up coulda woulda shoulda won on Sat night.
According to you, he is pretty much done and dusted in the elite level. Not sure how you go from what I've said - not being as good as the top 3 - to being done and dusted. More than 3 horses run in elite level races. Who knows how long he can keep on being competitive. But as Lance said on Oct 4 winning speech at Melton, words to effect it isn't a matter of turning up and winning anymore, will need barrier and luck etc.
I guess reality is a subjective view point, regardless of anyone's opinions.
.

[Smoken]

Well each of us have to come up with evidence to support our opinions, regardless if they differ.
I take it your answer is, Triggers time is up, i am assuming to his age, yet you consider him a danger in the VIC Cup, on a track he really over all is not comfortable on, especially comparing him to his love affair with Menangle.
You say that I do not have anything to back his very poor run in the MM.. I thought the way he raced explained it all, we obviously disagree as to why that is. That is fine, i appreciate your opinions, even though I clearly don't agree. The 3 elite horse comment was a general comment, meaning those that placed in the MM, & the rest of te young big guns.
Emotions come in to it as well, for many different reasons, & yes I agree that Trigger can't be having tough runs like he once did, regardless of his ferocious tenacity and strength, he is 11 now.
It's all good man :)

[aussiebreno]

Well each of us have to come up with evidence to support our opinions, regardless if they differ. Didn't see any of your evidence but ok.
I take it your answer is, Triggers time is up, i am assuming to his age, yet you consider him a danger in the VIC Cup, on a track he really over all is not comfortable on, especially comparing him to his love affair with Menangle. Still holds two track records at Melton. Time as king, winning everything is up as Lance has said before. But can still do himself proud on the grand circuit, maybe still even bob up in the winners stall with some luck.
You say that I do not have anything to back his very poor run in the MM.. I thought the way he raced explained it all Just saying what you think is different to saying why you think it, we obviously disagree as to why that is. That is fine, i appreciate your opinions, even though I clearly don't agree.
It's all good man :)
.

[Smoken]

Even though you knew what I meant regarding 'my thought' comment, 'I think' my many posts already explained as to why I think he ran very poorly, & I really 'think' that is the fundamental reasoning of differing of opinions.

If you are right, no amount of luck, apart from most of the big guns in the field galloping, or them being unwell etc etc, will help Trigger bob up for another Grand Circuit/Group 1 win, or even a placing, based on his performance in the MM, which most think is due to his age(logical),
and to his lack of ability @ his age, which i am comfortable to say a few people on here including yourself, do not believe he has anymore. Look at the easy time he had in front in the MM, yet he punctured like he has never done before...
If i am right, he would have a chance based on his strength, tenacity, and ability., and his proper recovery time, which is needed due to his age.
I guess time will tell, even though it is coming around quickly for the mighty Champ!
I pray he can win a big one before he earns his well earned rest.
He is a legend after all.

P.S
It's not his age, it's his form. Triggers form from 2-5 years ago probably wins the race. His form isn't as good now.

I don't know many other horses who can run 5th btn 12m after leading get the benefit of doubt that they are in fact currently better than the horse who won. Bit disrespectful to the winner imo.

I am curious that you say that it is not his age, yet you imply it over and over, bringing up his age..;

Trigger is going bloody unreal for an 11yo and shouldn't be doing what he is doing, but lets be fair to the top three from last night, they now have his measure.

This isn't an attack on Smoken Up. Nothing to be ashamed about running 5th in 1.50.2 as an 11yo. His best days just behind him, when he was at his peak the TAB wouldn't have offered a Miracle Mile win bet market, the market would have simply been pick the margin!!!

That pretty much tells me your reasoning, is his age, in regards to his form or poor form or race in the MM, which i actually would agree with you as it is common sense.. He can't back it up like he used to due those reasons.

No one is disrespecting Beautide, but c'mon, it really makes you wonder if Trigger was on song like he was last week, what the outcome could have been, which i know you already have replied with shoulda coulda woulda :) Two years ago, Triggers form would have obliterated most if not all these horses in the MM, and i think it is fair to say that it is more than a probable..

[Maorisidol]

I don't know many other horses who can run 5th btn 12m after leading get the benefit of doubt that they are in fact currently better than the horse who won. Bit disrespectful to the winner imo.

Brenno myself i am not saying Trigger is today better than the 3 mentioned horses anywhere at any track cos he aint what he was, the light has faded a little no doubt, the old Trigger would have won his last couple of races at Melton i would say.

my point is simply that his last run was totally way down on the week before, simple. thats it, and you ask "Smoken" to back up that statement with why, well hows cos the Trainer said so! doesnt get any more real than that. however for me the proof was in the pudding...

Brenno, if you cant see the same horse having an easier lead, and no pressure in front until essentially the 600 or so, who in the same distance,same track 7 days earlier does run 12-14 or so metres FASTER (1:49.9 then 7 days later 1:50.2) then u really have the blinkers on.
Before the race i did not hear too many media "experts" or rival Drivers or Trainers totally writing him off and saying he will not be competitive because after his somewhat "surprising" (but great) return to form and favorite track most thought that it was totally possible that he would win the MM, or be right there anyway.
However he did not and i would say that most people would assess his run and say "he didnt run up to the form of the week before", in other words he was flat pretty much.
Greg Hayes has said that not many if any back up well from the Cordina to the MM.
Now Brendan, i am not saying and never have said that i think he would have won the MM if he ran up to the Cordina effort, cos Beau may very well have been too quick over the last 200 and may have beaten him by a head to 2m -5m who knows?
My only point is i i reckon he was flat in comparison.
I guess on In The Gig tonite we will have some evaluations of the race and different horses performances assessed, so will b interesting to what others say...

[Smoken]

I agree that nobody has said that Trigger is better than any of the horse mentioned, simply what has been said or 'tried' is that Trigger most definitely did not run up to his capabilities.
I seriously don't understand why that can't be acknowledged by a few people..
If i was talking about 2-5 years ago, i would be very comfortable to say, he was a league above any of these horses, and that is no disrespect to any horses. I love them all :)

[aussiebreno]

Brenno myself i am not saying Trigger is today better than the 3 mentioned horses anywhere at any track cos he aint what he was, the light has faded a little no doubt, the old Trigger would have won his last couple of races at Melton i would say.

my point is simply that his last run was totally way down on the week before, simple. thats it, and you ask "Smoken" to back up that statement with why, well hows cos the Trainer said so! doesnt get any more real than that. however for me the proof was in the pudding...

Brenno, if you cant see the same horse having an easier lead, and no pressure in front until essentially the 600 or so, who in the same distance,same track 7 days earlier does run 12-14 or so metres FASTER (1:49.9 then 7 days later 1:50.2) then u really have the blinkers on.
Before the race i did not hear too many media "experts" or rival Drivers or Trainers totally writing him off and saying he will not be competitive because after his somewhat "surprising" (but great) return to form and favorite track most thought that it was totally possible that he would win the MM, or be right there anyway.
However he did not and i would say that most people would assess his run and say "he didnt run up to the form of the week before", in other words he was flat pretty much.
Greg Hayes has said that not many if any back up well from the Cordina to the MM.
Now Brendan, i am not saying and never have said that i think he would have won the MM if he ran up to the Cordina effort, cos Beau may very well have been too quick over the last 200 and may have beaten him by a head to 2m -5m who knows?
My only point is i i reckon he was flat in comparison.
I guess on In The Gig tonite we will have some evaluations of the race and different horses performances assessed, so will b interesting to what others say...
ITMQ used from gate against normal racing pattern in a blistering early time in Vic Cup and barely goes down. For the next 3 months you want to write him off for the Inter, saying no excuses etc. Moment Trigger goes down and it's because he just wasn't at his best and could have done better.

As for me with the blinkers on. I've already said times aren't eveything. FAR ran sub 1.50 as well last month. Didn't Sat night. Beaten in 1.54.5 as well last month. Track doesn't play identical every week.

[aussiebreno]

I agree that nobody has said that Trigger is better than any of the horse mentioned Then why argue with me when I said Beautide, CM and FAR would have beat Smoken Up in the Cordina?, simply what has been said or 'tried' is that Trigger most definitely did not run up to his capabilities.
I seriously don't understand why that can't be acknowledged by a few people..

Smoken Up may not have been at his best, but I think The top three have his measure anyhow. Which is fair enough to, he is 11 year old.

)
My quote posted yesterday.

[Smoken]

ITMQ worked at the start and had the best possible run imaginable, and he got whipped in the end by CB and MS, running away from him. Difference is, ITMQ ran up to his best potential that night, he just wasn't good enough on the night.
He is a beautiful very fast horse, with a massive sprint BUT he does not have a warrior fighting massive heart!
Everybody knows that! Triggers run in that race was absolutely Herculean.. He made that race, and he only got beaten how many meters, and do you remember the mountain of work he was doing? Reality is, we all have favourites, and i am happy to admit, Trigger is my all time favourite!
I wasn't arguing to begin with, more like a friendly debate. I do not know that either of the names mentioned would have beaten each other, as we are hypothesising different possibilities. They could have beaten Trigger, but i do not see you saying that Trigger could have beaten them. Why not? I mean, you say 2 years ago when he clocked in 148.5, he PROBABLY would have beaten this lot in the MM. Really? Only probably? Yet i have to give it to you, that on your other comment, you state that when Smoken Up was at his peak, it would not be in the case if he would win, but how much by..
The way he ran that night, he easily could have whipped them!

[Maorisidol]

ITMQ used from gate against normal racing pattern in a blistering early time in Vic Cup and barely goes down. For the next 3 months you want to write him off for the Inter, saying no excuses etc. Moment Trigger goes down and it's because he just wasn't at his best and could have done better.

As for me with the blinkers on. I've already said times aren't eveything. FAR ran sub 1.50 as well last month. Didn't Sat night. Beaten in 1.54.5 as well last month. Track doesn't play identical every week.
My comparison with Trigger week to week as stated is where many of the variables for the horse out front in both races (trigger) were very very similar. ie he led, he dictated the race. he won, he lost and was run down and beaten by 12m.
Easy to compare performance.
It wasnt that one week he was in the death next week he was 1/4 back and one week 1mile next week standing start 2700m! or 1 mile but was sitting 5th as opposed to 1 mile leading. weather basically same, in comparison to FAR 1:54.5 when the Murray River was running down the front straight!!!!
variables so close to identical an easy comparison can be made because of course also led both races, pretty easy really.

[aussiebreno]

My comparison with Trigger week to week as stated is where many of the variables for the horse out front in both races (trigger) were very very similar. ie he led, he dictated the race. he won, he lost and was run down and beaten by 12m.
Easy to compare performance.
It wasnt that one week he was in the death next week he was 1/4 back and one week 1mile next week standing start 2700m! or 1 mile but was sitting 5th as opposed to 1 mile leading. weather basically same, in comparison to FAR 1:54.5 when the Murray River was running down the front straight!!!!
variables so close to identical an easy comparison can be made because of course also led both races, pretty easy really.
Beautide eased down 9m > Abettorpunt (race run to suit Abettorpunt)
Smoken Up pushed out 4m > Abettorpunt (race not so much run to suit Abettorpunt)

Beautide eased down 5m > Smoken Up pushed out
-------------------------------------------------------------

For A Reason 10m + > Mach Beauty
Smoken Up 4m > Mach Beauty
For a Reason 6m+ > Smoken Uo

Pretty easy really.

[Smoken]

So Brenno, what do you believe what might have happened if MB took a trail immediately on Beautides back, like he did on Trigger's back?
I use the word believe, because there is no realistic and true answer to what might have happened, hence i cannot use the word know, because that would mean that you have knowledge of the uknown.
I have spoken to quite a few people regarding this years miracle mile, and they all said the same thing, the race was very average over all, but the hype was amazing! Beautide, nice win but non memorable win to me personally, no disrespect intended! CM was one of the better runs of the lot of them, and even he compounded. FAR, average to me, IV decent enough, Trigger well there is no point goiung around in circles with my analysis and reasoning for his very poor effort.. Restrepo, crap draw, TTL, Don't bother coming back to Menangle, MB, needs a break!

[aussiebreno]

So Brenno, do you believe what might have happened if MB took a trail immediately on Beautides back?
I use the word believe, because there is no realistic and true answer to what might have happened.
I have spoken to quite a few people regarding this years miracle mile, and they all said the same thing, the race was very average over all, but the hype was amazing! CM was one of the better runs of the lot of them, and even he compounded. FAR, average to me, IV decent enough, Trigger well there is no point goiung around in circles with my analysis and reasoning for his very poor effort.. Restrepo, crap draw, TTL, Don't bother coming back to Menangle, MB, needs a break!
If MB sat on Beautides back. Given Beautide sat outside him at Newcastle and beat him by 15m I think that says it all.
If by average they mean quickest Miracle Mile ever then I fully agree.

[Smoken]

That says, that MB went like a maniac that night, and is clearly not suited to racing like that. He compounds something chronic! How can any of us truly know, how MB would have performed on the back of Beautide? We can't, we can only assume like everything else. There is some truth in dribs and drabs in what everybody is saying, no one is flat out wrong or right!
How do we know that he didn't peak in the Cordinia sprint? So so many variables and hypothesis, it can make you go loco :)
Nobody thought he would perform as good as he did on Triggers back, and he suprised many people.
Spoke to a mate today, that ended up going to the MM, and i asked him what the track was like, and his opinion was, they should have run much faster times! Maybe they are all tired..

[aussiebreno]

That says, that MB went like a maniac that night, and is clearly not suited to racing like that. He compounds something chronic! How can any of us truly know, how MB would have performed on the back of Beautide? We can't, we can only assume like everything else. There is some truth in dribs and drabs in what everybody is saying, no one is flat out wrong or right!
How do we know that he didn't peak in the Cordinia sprint? So so many variables and hypothesis, it can make you go loco :)
Nobody thought he would perform as good as he did on Triggers back, and he suprised many people.
Spoke to a mate today, that ended up going to the MM, and i asked him what the track was like, and his opinion was, they should have run much faster times! Maybe they are all tired..
The only truth we have is Beautide won.

[Smoken]

I totally agree, and congratulations to the top 3, but that does nothing in regards as to why others may question why certain horses that were expected to perform much better, didn't.. Trigger was the most obvious of the lot, and you don't have to be a harness guru to figure that out..

[aussiebreno]

Mach Beauty
Abettorpunt

[Richard prior]

In the Gig looks interesting.

[HaroldParker]

Wrong. The week before it was warmer with very little wind i.e conducive to faster times. It was a little chilly on Saturday.

Time is irrelevant when comparing apples one week to oranges the next ... unless you're in prison.

Brendan, Newcastle Mile, Abettorpunt was 3 wide then 4-5 wide turning the trip. That horse has taken the next step. He'll win a GC race this season IMO.

[2minuteman]

Run last nites race Brenno 7 days ago and do u think THAT Trigger would have finished 12.7m behind running fifth in 1:50.2?
Simply not, based on him leading (like he did in both races) and running 1:49.9, he was a 13-14m better horse.
However of course his end is nigh no doubt and Melton is not his favorite track so unless he can freshen up AND get the lead in the Vic Cup, I reckon he's won his last race last week... Would love to b proved wrong tho...
Do we know if Christen Me and TTL will b stayin around for the Vic? And how about I'm Victorious?
Sat with close friends of the TTL camp on Sat night and word is he will run in the Vic Cup.Desperate to win in Australia.

[2minuteman]

The fact that remains that Trigger definitely was not right last night, regardless of the reason/s. That is common sense.
Some people are saying the track was affected a little bit, and others are saying it was great.. Which one was it?
Nothing wrong with track times were OK all night.They ran 52 and a tick in the first.

[Richard prior]

That would be great so see him(TTL) go around in the Victoria Cup, the longer distance would certainly suit him. Beautide's heading down and from what the Kookaburra(Michael Bennan) said in an interview on Saturday, Im Victorious will be as well. Should be a cracker of a race.

[2minuteman]

All indicators say Beautide would have won Cordina beating Smoken Up,
And as my old Grandad used to say"if the dog don't stop for a s**t he catches the rabbit".
We are all using times,sits,great drives,age differences,last weeks run,this weeks run,drivers brain snaps,etc.etc.
It is all conjecture.The facts are SU wins Cordina in 49 and change and Beautide wins Miracle Mile in 50 and change.All the rest is??? see above about dog.

[Richard prior]

Teecee, I think this topic has run it's full course.

[aussiebreno]

And as my old Grandad used to say"if the dog don't stop for a s**t he catches the rabbit".
We are all using times,sits,great drives,age differences,last weeks run,this weeks run,drivers brain snaps,etc.etc.
It is all conjecture.The facts are SU wins Cordina in 49 and change and Beautide wins Miracle Mile in 50 and change.All the rest is??? see above about dog.
Hey mate, nice too see another one who knocked ITMQ come out again and try to talk horses with me.

[Richard prior]

Sorry for butting in Smoken, but 5 years ago there was a horse running around by the name of BLACKS A FAKE who had some mighty clashes with old Trigger .

[p plater]

Sat with close friends of the TTL camp on Sat night and word is he will run in the Vic Cup.Desperate to win in Australia.

According to Mick Guerin "Terror To Love returning to NZ after Miracle Mile shocker, misses Victoria Cup. Connections still shaking head over how poorly he went"

[Smoken]

How can I forget Richard. Those were great battle royales! Two mighty horses for sure!
As for ITMQ, he is a rocket, and a Champ, but we all have a ultimate Champ for our own reasons. That is sad regarding TTL. He just hates Menangle!

[Danno]

[
QUOTE=2minuteman;29209]And as my old Grandad used to say"if the dog don't stop for a s**t he catches the rabbit are all using times,sits,great drives,age differences,last weeks run,this weeks run,drivers brain snaps,etc.etc.
It is all conjecture.The facts are SU wins Cordina in 49 and change and Beautide wins Miracle Mile in 50 and change.All the rest is??? see above about dog.

Thanks for the sanity check Ron, reminded me of what my grandfather used to say " if my aunty had balls she would be my uncle" admire the combatants in this debate for their tenacity and durability but guys.....it is an arguement that you can all win in one moment and lose in a heartbeat, because as Ron said, it's ALL CONJECTURE, anyone who knows anything about horses understands as Vinnie Knight so famously put it " their only HUMAN" what Vinnie meant was of course they are creatures of the world, they can have some days that are better or worse than others.......no explanation required....thats a fact of life.

Cheers,
Dan

[Pena]

Its a shame my old mate Marty "German" Johnson is banned. His famous quote of 3 pegs never wins big races. Oh so wrong again!!! This is on top of his comments with regards For a Reason. I will let others judge your level of intelligence.
Ash, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story. No matter what type of racing a turn of speed at the end of races wins races. Forget the overall times this means absolutely nothing. Cordina sprint last quarter 26.6, Miracle Mile clocked 26.2. From leader to winner. Beautide runs sub 26. Too fast to good! Smoken Up a champion but just not as quick as he used to be.

[teecee]

According to Mick Guerin "Terror To Love returning to NZ after Miracle Mile shocker, misses Victoria Cup. Connections still shaking head over how poorly he went"


http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Terror-coming-home-after-Miracle-Mile-disaster

[Richard prior]

That's a real shame, I was looking forward to seeing him going around in longer distance Cup races.

[p plater]

For anyone who is interested I have compiled the comparison between Cordina Sprint winners and their placing in the MM.
These times are the horses personal times.
2009 Karloo Mick Cordina 1.55.7 MM 3rd 1.50.9
2010 Washakie 1.50.5 Last 1.51.5
2011 Mr Feelgood 1.51.1 4th 1.52.1
2013 (April) Pure Power (2nd) 1.51.8 3rd 1.50.7 (Gaius Caesar scratched)
2013 Smoken Up 1.49.9 5th 1.51.1

The 2 improvers where Karloo Mick off a slow Cordina and Pure Power who had not started since 3rd March before 20th April Cordina.
The rest seem to have lost a second week on week.

[Smoken]

They are interesting stats there mate!

[aussiebreno]

For anyone who is interested I have compiled the comparison between Cordina Sprint winners and their placing in the MM.
These times are the horses personal times.
2009 Karloo Mick Cordina 1.55.7 MM 3rd 1.50.9
2010 Washakie 1.50.5 Last 1.51.5
2011 Mr Feelgood 1.51.1 4th 1.52.1
2013 (April) Pure Power (2nd) 1.51.8 3rd 1.50.7 (Gaius Caesar scratched)
2013 Smoken Up 1.49.9 5th 1.51.1

The 2 improvers where Karloo Mick off a slow Cordina and Pure Power who had not started since 3rd March before 20th April Cordina.
The rest seem to have lost a second week on week.
40% improve time.
Of those that didn't.
2010 Washakie difference due to early speed battle in Cordina which he wasn't a part of.
2011 Smoken Up 1.51.8? 6 months earlier 1.48.5. Something doesn't quite stack up.
2013 We already been through this.

I don't think there's a strong enough link to pull anything from those stats.

[p plater]

Brendan, I agree its a small sample.
2011 was based on Mr Feelgoods performance. He was a pretty fair horse to use.

[Smoken]

http://m.heraldsun.com.au/leader/west/evergreen-pacer-smoken-up-still-has-winning-edge/story-fngnvog3-1226773977702

[brent_L]

Just read the above article. Is Lance Justice really 77 yrs old??

[Smoken]

I think Lance is 177 and Trigger 77 :p

[teecee]

It was reported on "The Box Seat"...Harness review / preview show on Trackside TV in NZ tonight that the connections of several horses in Saturday night's Miracle Mile (and other races) reported that the Menangle track was TOO HARD for their horses. They reported being told by officials when querying the state of the track that the track was prepared for racing with the likelihood of rain.
If I am to understand this correctly, the topping of the track was removed so as not to become the sludge often seen at Menangle and Melton on wet racenights.
When the rains did not come the track was left in a very hard state.


Any comments from those in the know so to speak...

[p plater]

I overheard 2 trainers saying exactly that. They said in needed an inch of topping.

[aussiebreno]

It was reported on "The Box Seat"...Harness review / preview show on Trackside TV in NZ tonight that the connections of several horses in Saturday night's Miracle Mile (and other races) reported that the Menangle track was TOO HARD for their horses. They reported being told by officials when querying the state of the track that the track was prepared for racing with the likelihood of rain.
If I am to understand this correctly, the topping of the track was removed so as not to become the sludge often seen at Menangle and Melton on wet racenights.
When the rains did not come the track was left in a very hard state.


Any comments from those in the know so to speak...
You mean the track isn't prepared the exact same each week and the weather isn't 100% spot on each week, so we can't actually compare time for time from one week to another? Blasphemy!!!

[Richard prior]

Not to sure how long it takes the put the topping on, but the cloud that Sydney had was very high and started to break up before mid day and it was extremely unlikely there would be any rain. I guess in hindsight a better option would have been to put 50% of the usual amount on the track in the early afternoon. Fred might be able to give us some feed back on the process.

[Toohard]

It was reported on "The Box Seat"...Harness review / preview show on Trackside TV in NZ tonight that the connections of several horses in Saturday night's Miracle Mile (and other races) reported that the Menangle track was TOO HARD for their horses. They reported being told by officials when querying the state of the track that the track was prepared for racing with the likelihood of rain.
If I am to understand this correctly, the topping of the track was removed so as not to become the sludge often seen at Menangle and Melton on wet racenights.
When the rains did not come the track was left in a very hard state.


Any comments from those in the know so to speak...

Had nothing to do with me teecee!! :D

Heard same from trainers. 1 very astute one, who was at the track but didn't have a runner in, picked it up from seeing how much the track conditioner on back of tractor was digging into track (virtually not at all). Well spotted Danno!

[Boydy]

To top dress would probably take between 500 - 800 tonnes of material.

Not something that could be completed 3 hours before a race meeting.

A good couple of days work.

[Richard prior]

Thanks Adam, Wasn't exactly sure of the process. I guess your damned if you do and damned if you don't.

[Mighty Atom]

It was reported on "The Box Seat"...Harness review / preview show on Trackside TV in NZ tonight that the connections of several horses in Saturday night's Miracle Mile (and other races) reported that the Menangle track was TOO HARD for their horses. They reported being told by officials when querying the state of the track that the track was prepared for racing with the likelihood of rain.
If I am to understand this correctly, the topping of the track was removed so as not to become the sludge often seen at Menangle and Melton on wet racenights.
When the rains did not come the track was left in a very hard state.


Any comments from those in the know so to speak...


What a great way to induce injuries.

[2minuteman]

Hey mate, nice too see another one who knocked ITMQ come out again and try to talk horses with me.
Hello again all wise and knowing Guru.I think I would be right in saying that the highlighted comment of yours displays a disturbing amount of hubris,however I will take your point that it is pointless me attempting to put forward a point of view,so I won't.

[2minuteman]

Anybody able to help with claimed crowd numbers for the MM?

[HaroldParker]

Not as many as a Friday night @ Harold Park.

and the peeps @ Harold Park paid to get in as well :)