Ballarat Cup

[Smoken]

What do you think fellas?
If TGA doesn't hand up to Trigger, I believe he will compound!
If Trigger finds the front, without going crazy, he is a big chance!
Carribean Blaster has to be a very big chance now, especially if Trigger doesn't cross TGA.
C'mon Trigger, shoot them dead:p

[Maorisidol]

What do you think fellas?
If TGA doesn't hand up to Trigger, I believe he will compound!
If Trigger finds the front, without going crazy, he is a big chance!
Carribean Blaster has to be a very big chance now, especially if Trigger doesn't cross TGA.
C'mon Trigger, shoot them dead:p

No sprint lane at Ballarat Smoken!
So too great a chance Gold Ace MAY not get out...
Lance will push to try and lead of course, test the water, but TGA very fast mobile beginner, it all gets to what Luke wants to do.
Unless absolutely smashed i cant see TGA "compunding" as i have said hes a new different animal with Team McC and i believe will continue to improve. He certainly wont do a Bitobliss on us...
With Christen Me in this week also puts a new dimension on a swooper flying home, even tho he supposedly hasnt been going well lately. Hes too good to dismiss.
Caribbean Blaster going well cant be dismissed based on a potential war upfront.
Cant see anyone else winning outside those 4 realistically, however how much did Highview Tommy pay 2 years ago when he pipped Sushi?
The draw means it wont be boring, lookin forward to a great race!
Looking forward to a great night with our best Trotters too, GO BLITZ!!!

[Smoken]

TGA if has an easy lead, will also be hard to beat, & since the Hunter Cup is following week, I can't see Lance busting Trigger, or I at least hope not. ABOP has to be considered for a place chance, if TGA has an easy lead in front. Who do you guys think will be on the back of CM? Or will CB pull out early and have CM on the back of him?
Could KC go all out at the start, as he is a very quick beginner? That's his best chance to be in the finish. Can't wait!

[HaroldParker]

Hey Ang, after the Miracle Mile I called out Lance for being a poor sport re Trigger needing 2 weeks between races. It differed from the regular chestnut of going too slow in front, which I suspect was used last week ? I remember you taking offence to it, Lance knowing his horse etc

Saturday will be the fourth week in a row Trigger has gone around. South Oz to Shepparton off 30m in the midst of a heat wave.

I don't think the two starts in a fortnight was why he got run over at Menangle ... I think he went too slow in front :)

[HaroldParker]

Re the Shep Cup, I've said it numerous times on this forum, Luke is the best big race driver I've seen in the 30 years I've been following the sport. He rarely if ever misses a beat and he pulled their pants down again last week.

[Smoken]

The miracle mile run of Trigger was awful Bob, and extremely uncharacteristic of Trigger. There had to be some explanation?
Maybe he has hit over all form now? I have no idea, but I do know he is racing great, & I hope he doesn't get busted this weekend, as there are bigger fish to fry next week :)

[Smoken]

Tell me why you wouldn't want a 11yo winning Group 1 races?
Does anyone have a common sense reply to this??

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2014/01/ballarat-cup-preview.html?m=1

[aussiebreno]

Tell me why you wouldn't want a 11yo winning Group 1 races?
Does anyone have a common sense reply to this??

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2014/01/ballarat-cup-preview.html?m=1Because it shows that either (or a mix of) the race isn't that strong (which can happen time to time but I don't think applies to Ballarat Cup) or more worryingly that the younger brigade haven't stepped up and aren't as good as those that came before them. It's a bit of a let down in sport (and anything really) when things stagnate or worsen, people crave expansion and bigger and better things. If an 11yo is winning G1s, these bigger and better things aren't happening, or aren't happening to the extent people crave. Hope that gives you a reason.

On the other hand though, people do love the romance of an old champ beating the young whippersnappers when seemingly past their prime.

[Smoken]

Good reason as it's in detail, but if Trigger was to win, wouldn't that mean that he is just a freak, & the other horses are very high class horses in their prime? I would think that the romance/legend status would amaze the public and possibly follow the sport more than they most likely would have before.
I just hope that Lance doesn't do a Kamikaze..
If you're reading this Lance, don't do it :p

[littlelenny]

Action packed race, gotta feel for Christen Me again looked the winner only to be denied by Restrepo. Big win for Restrepo leading the 3 wide line, CB again top effort. Hunter Cup next week should be another great race this pool of horses are so evenly matched that i cant see any of them starting a dominant favourite. Who ever gets the best run and a bit of luck will be the winner, good to see that the conditions have changed and now all horses start from the front no handicaps. Lets just hope now that all the big names turn up.

[Smoken]

Great race and congrats to Restrepo.
Agree that most of them are very evenly matched. I had a feeling Trigger would mess the bend, & Lance might be in some strife now.. Who will drive Trigger if Lance is suspended?

[Frosty]

So he should be in strife. Very dangerous what he did and more so in a big race. Could have caused all sorts of carnage. He will drive him in the Hunter Cup - he will just appeal and get a stay !

[Smoken]

I thought that he may have liked the track more since the upgrade, & his record breaking run, but that doubt was always there.. Does not like the bends at all! If he had allowed KC to go through, CM would then had most likely finished 3rd.
I thought the first 5 horses were great runs, & the rest were average, TGA was very average IMO.

[The Escape Club]

I ended up backing Restrepo for some value :) but was really tempted to have a crack at Keayang Cullen for $51 fixed. When that gap opened up for him I was thinking that I'd rue my decision. It had the potential to end up really nasty, I'm glad the were all unscathed.

[p plater]

Just a question...Was there ever enough room for horse and gig?

[Frosty]

Stewards must have thought so. They upheld the protest and placed Keayang Cullen ahead of Smokin Up.

[Maorisidol]

Just a question...Was there ever enough room for horse and gig?

Well we can see the horse had enough room to get up to Triggers back legs and of course assuming at that time that Glen Craven sees a very big gap, he only dived in when it looked like Trigger was either gonna keep going wider or at least stay about there, a split second decision says, "go!!! Heaven just opened!!!". Unfortunately Lance closed the door cos Keayangs gig probably didn't have room to get thru, however took out KC's legs, Lance will probably get a holiday.
Massive fantastic run Christen Me, no doubt will be even better next week!
Massive fantastic run Restrepo, trainer says he obviously is a great stayer, look out next week!
Good normal high end effort Caribbean Blaster, did not much, sprinted 200m, needed to get out and get going 4m earlier! Just missed.
Trigger brave. Top 3 too good for him.
The Gold Ace disappointing, but don't write off Luke McCarthy yet!
KC good run against this opposition

[Lucky Camilla"s Lovechild]

Some interesting form reversals last night!

[Smoken]

Do any of you think that Trigger can win next week? If so, what kind of race would he have to race?
These horses are so evenly placed ATM as mention earlier, that any of the horses mentioned can win it.
Luck will play a big role in the Hunter Cup!

[Maorisidol]

Do any of you think that Trigger can win next week? If so, what kind of race would he have to race?
These horses are so evenly placed ATM as mention earlier, that any of the horses mentioned can win it.
Luck will play a big role in the Hunter Cup!

I don't think he can win. Got an easy lead at Ballarat, couldn't do it. Could race in the death in Hunter Cup but won't be able to win against last nights Trifecta.
Over 1 mile leading is his best hope.
I would love to be wrong and will cheer him all the way home if he does!

[HaroldParker]

Well we can see the horse had enough room to get up to Triggers back legs and of course assuming at that time that Glen Craven sees a very big gap, he only dived in when it looked like Trigger was either gonna keep going wider or at least stay about there, a split second decision says, "go!!! Heaven just opened!!!". Unfortunately Lance closed the door cos Keayangs gig probably didn't have room to get thru, however took out KC's legs, Lance will probably get a holiday.
Massive fantastic run Christen Me, no doubt will be even better next week!
Massive fantastic run Restrepo, trainer says he obviously is a great stayer, look out next week!
Good normal high end effort Caribbean Blaster, did not much, sprinted 200m, needed to get out and get going 4m earlier! Just missed.
Trigger brave. Top 3 too good for him.
The Gold Ace disappointing, but don't write off Luke McCarthy yet!
KC good run against this opposition

The Christen Me I saw this time last year doesn't lose last night nor the Miracle Mile. He's still a great horse but a length or two off IMO.

Smoken Up is a Million To One in the Hunter Cup. Half that price when Lance is suspended : )

[Viv Strangman]

Having watched the race a few times i am still as puzzled as I was when I watched it the first time. Restrepo has been unable all season to match it with the big boys off soft runs. 15m from the winner in the Miracle Mile and not much better in the Victoria Cup, both with handy trips. Saturday night he sits 3 deep for over a lap and blouses them in track record time and not a word. The improvement is in "Ripleys" league yet not a word. In my forty plus years watching harness racing if a trainer can improve a horse a length or two he is a good trainer--- three or four lengths to the great trainers and more than 10 lengths (Saturday night) is just not possible even with a top trainer.

[Messenger]

I am hearing you Viv and agree it was a big improvement but 10len? I only like to look at most recent form and like for like, he has had the 1x1 over distance in the Shep Cup last week and has come home in 55 and change similar to to first 2 and has been beaten 2hds by them. Last night again over distance he has amazingly sat 3w for the lap and come home in 56 and change and won by 2 hfhds.

[aussiebreno]

He did blouse For A Reason (admittedly track was off) in the lead up to the Miracle Mile.

[Lucky Camilla"s Lovechild]

Having watched the race a few times i am still as puzzled as I was when I watched it the first time. Restrepo has been unable all season to match it with the big boys off soft runs. 15m from the winner in the Miracle Mile and not much better in the Victoria Cup, both with handy trips. Saturday night he sits 3 deep for over a lap and blouses them in track record time and not a word. The improvement is in "Ripleys" league yet not a word. In my forty plus years watching harness racing if a trainer can improve a horse a length or two he is a good trainer--- three or four lengths to the great trainers and more than 10 lengths (Saturday night) is just not possible even with a top trainer.


Some interesting form reversals last night!

[Smoken]

I also found it weird that Restrepo won, & the way he won being 3 wide. It could just be he was feeling super that night.
He could come out and lose by 20 metres in the Hunter Cup. So many things play a role in the top horses winning, wether it's how they feel within themselves, or luck in running etc etc.
Most people were saying TGA was pretty much unbeatable, and will not be crossed.. He ran a shocker! 1 Mill to 1 for Trigger sounds amazing! I think I might put $1 on the Champion :p

[Toohard]

Gavin Lang said in pre race interview he was still making ground in Shep Cup and horse hadn't had run for 3 weeks before it and needed it. He did sound very confident and drove horse to match.

[Viv Strangman]

Watch his Mirace mile or Victoria Cup run and place it alongside his run on Saturday night and the difference is at least ten lengths. He does nothing all season to suggest he could sit three wide for a lap in a track record time and stroll on by a group one field. Horses do have a performance band from their best to their worst runs but the run of Restrepo on Saturday night was from another planet compared to his earlier runs. I don't punt on Australian racing and after watching that massive turn around I wonder why any Australians would as well.

[Messenger]

Part agreeing with you Viv but as both those races were over shorter distances and run a lot quicker than last night, I think you are being a bit mischievous regarding the 10len - let's call it 5 :)
As a schoolboy athlete I used to know that one lane out over 400m was an extra 4m covered. Does anyone know what extra distance a horse covers one cart out at a track like Melton or Ballarat?

[Richard prior]

Kev, This is just ball park as I have asked this question as well, approx 12 metres but I'm sure that someone will correct me.

[Toohard]

Gday. Same discussion here while back. See if can find. Believe the extra distance covered per lap the same at any track. Something to do with radius of a circle. Can cover more ground at different tracks but only because might go round more bends. So 2000m race round 3 bends cover more ground than 2000m round 2 bends.

Also if 7m extra 1 off fence them 14m extra 3 off fence 21m 4 off....
See if can find.

[Messenger]

Thanks men, I reckon you would be pretty close Rich as a cart with a little space to spare would have to be the equivalent of about 3 athletics lanes. Cheers

[Toohard]

Cant find yet but know its here somwhere. Was something like... if take any harness racing track (even Redcliffe) and take off all the straight bits, what you are left with is a circle. Different size circles but all circles. Horse one off fence covers same amount extra ground regardless of size of circle.

Outside at moment. My son got a spreadsheet with that in plus sectional times. Uses to work out horses that went better than finish position looks. Still needs work. Found one winner last 6 months. 3s on chance. Suppose handy though as I treat all his specials as scratchings.

Will have look spreadsheet later and let you know. In racebook in SA it tells you how much extra inside front page. Cant recall number though.

[Richard prior]

Sounds interesting Paul, Young Luke will work it out.

[aussiebreno]

Tip for Luke (not the one and only tip, just one point to consider, Im sure others have different methods). Say horse on outside covers 28 extra metres. Get beats 15m. That doesn't automatically make it 13m better. For much of the race (the way they usually run) horses are travelling within them self, which mean horse isn't expanding all its energy. If you running 32 quarters in the first half you can keep up quite easily without expanding much more material energy. If a faster paced race with first half in say 30 quarters it much harder for outside horses to keep that pace. Same phenomenon in our bodies. If we run within ourselves (32 quarters) we can still have a final sprint so sitting outside wasn't as much a disadvantage. If we running near on full pace (30 quarters) we don't have much of a kick left so sitting outside was a bigger disadvantage.
So inside horse running at 65% may mean outside horse needs to run at 70% to keep pace in a 32 quarter. In a 30 quarter inside horse running at 80% pace means outside horse needs to run 85% pace. The way the aerobic and anaerobic systems work, you can keep a steady pace for a long time, but as soon as you start pushing you fade dramatically quicker. This means outside horses working harder especially when the pace is on have a significant disadvantage. Off a slow pace even though they covered 28m more extra they still entitled to fight on. Off a fast pace if they covering 28m more then its much harder to do and entitled to stop. If Luke can come up with an algorithm to incorporate pace into distance beaten he might land two winners instead of one!!!

[Toohard]

If Luke works it out will let you know... one day...email from Bahamas! These variables are what makes it 'fun'?

[aussiebreno]

If Luke works it out will let you know... one day...email from Bahamas! These variables are what makes it 'fun'?

Interesting concept of fun at times isn't it!

[p plater]

Tip for Luke (not the one and only tip, just one point to consider, Im sure others have different methods). Say horse on outside covers 28 extra metres. Get beats 15m. That doesn't automatically make it 13m better. For much of the race (the way they usually run) horses are travelling within them self, which mean horse isn't expanding all its energy. If you running 32 quarters in the first half you can keep up quite easily without expanding much more material energy. If a faster paced race with first half in say 30 quarters it much harder for outside horses to keep that pace. Same phenomenon in our bodies. If we run within ourselves (32 quarters) we can still have a final sprint so sitting outside wasn't as much a disadvantage. If we running near on full pace (30 quarters) we don't have much of a kick left so sitting outside was a bigger disadvantage.
So inside horse running at 65% may mean outside horse needs to run at 70% to keep pace in a 32 quarter. In a 30 quarter inside horse running at 80% pace means outside horse needs to run 85% pace. The way the aerobic and anaerobic systems work, you can keep a steady pace for a long time, but as soon as you start pushing you fade dramatically quicker. This means outside horses working harder especially when the pace is on have a significant disadvantage. Off a slow pace even though they covered 28m more extra they still entitled to fight on. Off a fast pace if they covering 28m more then its much harder to do and entitled to stop. If Luke can come up with an algorithm to incorporate pace into distance beaten he might land two winners instead of one!!!

It's probably easier to wait for the course announcer, save headache tablets with maths......Waiting to hear ABA code...After Burner Added

[brent_L]

I also found it weird that Restrepo won, & the way he won being 3 wide. It could just be he was feeling super that night.
He could come out and lose by 20 metres in the Hunter Cup. So many things play a role in the top horses winning, wether it's how they feel within themselves, or luck in running etc etc.
Most people were saying TGA was pretty much unbeatable, and will not be crossed.. He ran a shocker! 1 Mill to 1 for Trigger sounds amazing! I think I might put $1 on the Champion :p
I didn't think Restrepo would be winning at the bell like most, but after having a closer look at the times I can see how he did. Lang made his ground up in a 31.3 second quarter and although 3 deep, the last half wasn't out of this world fast.....56.3. Christen Me fell in a huge hole the final 30m (totally agree with Bob CM IMO is nowhere near his chariots form) and CB wins in another 10m (or if he doesn't drop off a fraction at the 300). So IMO things fell right into place for Restrepo on the night. That aside, it is a little alarming the difference between his good and bad runs (Tonkin did address this in a post race interview on Sat night)......a little like Bitobliss.
I for one am not gonna label TGA's run a shocker. Pushed off the arm, jostled with SU there after and beaten 7.3m in a track record. No surprises to me if he runs a bottler next week.
You may be getting 'overs' with the million/1 but I'm positive you'll be a buck poorer.

[Smoken]

So was TGA run better than Trigger, & who would be a better chance between those 2?

[brent_L]

No it wasn't a better run, nor did I say so......just reckon it was far from 'a shocker'.
If I were able to bet at evens I would like plenty on TGA to finish in front of SU in Hunter Cup for a bunch of reasons......age, form, tractability, trainer/driver, but these are only my opinions and I have been wrong plenty in the past.

[Smoken]

Good reasons given, although I believe Trigger is going just as well as TGA is going. Any of the top horses can win the Hunter Cup, and this would make for an interesting race for sure! What price you guys think Trigger will be?

[brent_L]

If he draws favourably $16-
Back row $26-
Betfair odds

[Smoken]

Great odds. He is always dangerous even @ 11 yrs of age! At least he should handle the bends a bit better, hopefully :)

[Maorisidol]

So was TGA run better than Trigger, & who would be a better chance between those 2?

They both had a similar run.
Trigger spent fuel at the start
TGA spent fuel mid race
They finished 3m apart and TGA couldn't catch Trigger.
No point talking about who would be better chance until barrier draw and,
even tho most agree TGA raced below his best, including Luke McC, u can't discount Luke to pick him back up again for Hunter Cup.

[Smoken]

The talking part is fun, well to me anyway :) So many variables, it's exciting!

[brent_L]

Good reasons given, although I believe Trigger is going just as well as TGA is going. Any of the top horses can win the Hunter Cup, and this would make for an interesting race for sure! What price you guys think Trigger will be?

TAB has gone up $7 smoken.....hold off u will get much longer on the night IMO

[aussiebreno]

TAB has gone up $7 smoken.....hold off u will get much longer on the night IMO

Yep. Vic Cup opened about $7 so I offered someone on this forum $8 but come raceday more like $13. Not sure he will get out that much again but will drift imho.

[Toohard]

Thanks men, I reckon you would be pretty close Rich as a cart with a little space to spare would have to be the equivalent of about 3 athletics lanes. Cheers


Found it!!

http://www.harnessracingforum.com/showthread.php?2377-One-track-wonder&p=19551&highlight=radius#post19551

Look pages before and after. 8.5m per lap.

[Richard prior]

Excellent Paul, Back to school for me or maybe a bit of tutoring from Julius Sumner Breno.

[doncht]

This one was a classic for me. Onto the next one I guess. https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/smile4.png