Menangle Review

[Messenger]

Just as Melton Metro meetings are always going to evoke discussion and now have a thread so too should Menangle. Let's start it off today as NSW have so much money they can run Metro meetings on Tuesday afternoons!

[Greg Hando]

Where did you get the Metro meeting from Kev the $15,000 races were heats of the Breeder's Challenge and the 2yo trotters was special race final for the 2yo trotter's.

[Messenger]

Metro stakes by Vic standards got me excited Greg. If we had a meeting like that down here there would be no Metro meeting (maybe a couple of Metro races surrounded by country class)

[brent_L]

Just caught up on all yesterday's action. Although it's nothing of real importance, I couldn't help but feel that every race I watched had a Panella driven leader. Went thru and double checked.....sure enough, 6 drives, 5 leads and 1 death seat. Reminded me of the times in years gone by when u could almost guarantee that Kerryn would have one of her fathers outside of the lead if not in front. One things for sure, u pretty much know what u r going to get for your money.

IMO
best performances- Aspiring Artist, Chariot King, Ive Gottalife, On Thunder Road.
best drive- Panella R5
head scratcher- T McCarthy R1
Cheers

[Messenger]

Brent, you inspired me to venture over the border in replay land and I can see why you nominated R5 for Lauren's drive

[Pena]

Not sure how Brave Wiggy was drive of the night? Monarkmac was far superior. The joke of Change of Tactics raised it's ugly head again. Suave Stuey Lombo further back. Can the stewards say no you can't chop and change your tactics every week so you manipulate the race?

[Frano1982]

You're spot on here Jack...
He's a go forward horse and he's rock hard race fit!!!
So they take he horse back to last and not give him a hope in hell of winning???
I wonder of those tactics would be different if the horses were owned in different interests???
Surely they have to give every horse in that race the best possible chance...

[Messenger]

Not sure how Brave Wiggy was drive of the night? Monarkmac was far superior. The joke of Change of Tactics raised it's ugly head again. Suave Stuey Lombo further back. Can the stewards say no you can't chop and change your tactics every week so you manipulate the race?
You got me to watch the Monakmac replay Jack (nowhere near the usual quality you expect on Trots TV either) and I still disagree. Monakmac just got lucky - Brave Wiggy driven to put a space in them was winning tactics

[brent_L]

I saw exactly what u did Kev. I think Jack meant to write 'in his opinion'!

[Messenger]

I think it might be a 'Lauren' thing with Jack

[Richard prior]

Yep Monarkmac got a lucky split and Brave Wiggy run them off their legs.

[Pena]

It has got nothing to do with the personalities it just my opinion. I thought Laurens drive on Liberitius the week before shows how much she has improved and does not need to lead at all costs although it seemed to change again last weekend. IMO if Brave Wiggy goes 28.4 and 27.1 it still wins so why was the 27.1 and 28.4 so good. The horse went fantastic but the drive was just a drive. Of course you need luck the way Monarkmac was driven but making the right moves to get that luck is what makes it a good drive.

Notice only one person has discussed the COT. Below is the way SSL was driven when a McCarthy horse was in front. Mmmmmm. The COT rule is basically sactioning not giving some horses a chance. Its a blight on the industry and the sooner its gone the better.


http://www.trotstv.com.au/?mc=PC280913&rn=7

[Messenger]

It has got nothing to do with the personalities it just my opinion. I thought Laurens drive on Liberitius the week before shows how much she has improved and does not need to lead at all costs although it seemed to change again last weekend. IMO if Brave Wiggy goes 28.4 and 27.1 it still wins so why was the 27.1 and 28.4 so good. The horse went fantastic but the drive was just a drive. Of course you need luck the way Monarkmac was driven but making the right moves to get that luck is what makes it a good drive.

Notice only one person has discussed the COT. Below is the way SSL was driven when a McCarthy horse was in front. Mmmmmm. The COT rule is basically sactioning not giving some horses a chance. Its a blight on the industry and the sooner its gone the better.


http://www.trotstv.com.au/?mc=PC280913&rn=7

Jack you are not thinking tactically.
The biggest advantage a leader has is that they are already winning and they can set the pace. And other than a horse having the drop on you, one of the biggest disadvantages is that you do not have eyes in the back of your head (you cannot be looking around the whole time)

Let's say I am a driver who knows their horse well and knows their opposition well too.
I know that my horse and his main opposition are capable of running a final half of 54 provided nothing too crazy has happened in the first half
We are inside the half mile and I know that I have a handy gap on my main opposition (they have been caught out) and I know that before they will react to my move I will have a couple more metres (the nature of initiator v reactor)

I could forfeit this extra advantage of surprise and just do a rubber neck and try building the pace to maintain my gap on them, knowing I am still a 70% chance of winning. There is also that slight chance that when you take your eyes off them, they put in a spurt and close the gap (gaining the initiator meters)
OR
I could take advantage of their mistake and my knowledge of how fast I can get to the finish and how fast they are capable of going and increase my winning chance to 90%.

It makes me think of the brilliant drive of Glen Craven on Keayang Steamer when he beat Smoken Up in the Horsham Cup this year. It was a reverse of this situation in that Keayang was right with Smoken but Glen caught Lance out by taking the initiative by accelerating quickly earlier than Lance expected which has become the recipe for beating SU since (the champ does have a fair excuse - 11 of them)

[brent_L]

Notice only one person has discussed the COT. Below is the way SSL was driven when a McCarthy horse was in front. Mmmmmm. The COT rule is basically sactioning not giving some horses a chance. Its a blight on the industry and the sooner its gone the better.


http://www.trotstv.com.au/?mc=PC280913&rn=7
I understand what u r saying but surely there would be an equal amount of disgruntlement in the SSL instance even without the COT. At least with the notification, punters (smart ones anyhow) know to steer clear of wagering him. Doesn't help those who bet early though.

[HaroldParker]

I understand what u r saying but surely there would be an equal amount of disgruntlement in the SSL instance even without the COT. At least with the notification, punters (smart ones anyhow) know to steer clear of wagering him. Doesn't help those who bet early though.

As I'm sure you're aware Brent, Mach Beauty was very heavily supported with the corporates and then with TAB fixed odds when they went up, well before the COT.

As I said in the other thread, the policing of the sport by stewards is a joke at present.

We won't be getting on for two bob shortly. Once the corporates write off Harness Racing and trust me they're not far away (can you blame them ?) turnover / the industries take will get hit hard.

The integrity of the sport begins and ends with the Stewards and they're too poorly resourced.

SSL was, as they used to say in the Red Hot days, pulled up on Saturday night. It was given no hope and at the discretion of the Stewards.

With the avalanche of support for Mach Beauty, in layman terms, the COT = "we're driving SSL dead because we've got the kitchen sink on Mach Beauty". This example is so obvious that the Stewards (given the support for the stablemate) they should of denied the request.

[HaroldParker]

How close are we to seeing stablemates coupled up (or more) in the betting ?

[HaroldParker]

although I'm singling out SSL from Saturday night there's been a boat load of similar examples involving many of the leading barns.

[brent_L]

How close are we to seeing stablemates coupled up (or more) in the betting ?
Not a terrible idea....wonder if it is successful in the states??

On the COT, again I totally understand your view, but I honestly CANNOT see a way around it. If I were Tritton, I'd have done the exact same thing. No way am I going to a) give SSL an unnecessary gut buster sitting outside of a 'primed' grand circuit campaigner or b) have a fresh MB pressured by a stablemate undermining his upcoming campaign. I'm just surprised they didn't try for a bigger slice of the pie......have SSL lead, then hand up which I'm sure would have also caused consternation.
We see it week in week out....chilli palmer the other week, bathurst regularly within the families, perth with snr's team, mildura/cramp, luke mac all over the countryside and so on and so on. Death, taxes & team driving.
Finally, whilst I love that the two corporates are continually going up early with their fixed prices, it doesn't seem like good business practice to me. Listed races yes, but if they are going to 'guesstimate' a market on a C3 three days out they deserve to be pillaged. As u and many more know, they go up the wrong price, get burnt, then limit clients.......expletive expletive.

[Pena]

Kevin, based on your theory then the drive yesterday on Im Supersonic must have been disgraceful. Led with ease and went a 61first half only to be outsprinted over the last 2 quarters. I assure you the first 2 advantages of leading such as controlling the pace, not having to obtain a run and thirdly covering the shortest distance to me are far more substantial advantages than not knowing whats going on behind you and I am sure the statistics would show the largest number of race winners lead. I am not saying that it was a bad drive but hardly the drive of the night.
As for bracketing runners I am pretty sure this will never happen.
Brett, everything you say makes sense but Mach Alert was in the same category and this did not stop them hammering it with SSL.

[brent_L]

Brett, everything you say makes sense but Mach Alert was in the same category and this did not stop them hammering it with SSL.
Totally different IMO Jack. They weren't stablemates.

[Pena]

Kevin, isn't the reason why people are saying that it was such a good drive was Panella put the foot down early and established a break. Quite clearly in the second quarter when the eventual winner was 3 wide and getting to the death could she have not increased the speed and not let the other horse get head to head with it? The reason why it was such a good drive in your opinion on Saturday was it not a bad one on Tuesday? Especially this horse sat out Frith recently and was to fast for her.
You wrote of the advantaged vs disadvantages of leaders vs non leaders I was just clarifying unlike you did they were not proportional.
Again reinforcing your leaders vs non leaders advanatages was that more leaders win than any other position in a race.
This thread is hardly a democratic election. Everone has an opinion and I really do not care whether you think I am right or not. I am sure the silent majority agree.

[Pena]

Brett obviously it is totally different but should it be. Team driving is actually against the rules of racing and this includes not trying for the good of the team. Forget early punting etc. its a joke to the sport.

[Messenger]

Hard to believe a moderator would delete those posts of mine in response to Jack. How about just editing them as we were debating a point and the only thing that you could have objected to was the pictures if you have no sense of humour

[Messenger]

To rehash after the heavy handed deletion of my replies to Jack.
The supersonic situation was nothing like the Wiggy situation. The winner of Supersonic's race was already at his wheel by the 1200m mark of the 1609m race and there was no chance of taking some advantage.
I do think the silent majority may agree with you however Jack as assuming the silent moderator who destroyed the gist of the debate by deleting instead of editing is TC - he has always had a problem with me LOL

[Pena]

Don't worry Kevin I thought it was funny hardly worthy of being removed. Kevin I will remind you though Panella did have the chance to increqase the speed before the 1200 and make the other horse work abit more or actually not let it get head to head with it. There is not a magical line at the half mile from where you can increase the speed. Like I said previously the only horse in the race that looked to be able to beat it was the eventual winner as it did with Frith. My opinion Brave Wiggy - good drive but not the best of the night, Im Supersonic - Bad drive.
On the subject of bad drives and the shambles that is COT try Race 6 @ Newcastle on for size. Funny enough same connections.

[aussiebreno]

In a similar vein but better rated and worked out David Miles last night on Mindarie Priddy. It is probably the best way to drive her anyway, but it really did a job on Shes a Runa.

[Messenger]

Yeh that super slow first half lets Mindarie come home in 54.9 compared to the 56.2 she came home in in the Oaks - the difference between the sprint lane beating you or not. As for Runa - in the death, she might have been better pushing on early and hoping she would have been able to drop down behind Minda (easy in hindsight)

Back to Menangle now folks ;)

[Sofoulis]

Jack - not sure if you are talking about Race 6 at Newcastle yesterday or Race 6 at Newcastle tonight. If yesterday, you are referring to my horse "Nolonga Your Choice".
A few comments:
1. We are not the same connections (owners) as the ones for Suave Stuey Lombo (which i think you are referring to)
2. I requested the change of tactics because my view of the race was that Gotta Go Under Fire would lead and run, with us being stuck in the breeze - which Doc (Nolonga Your Choice) is not suited to
3. Nolonga Your Choice has previously won by going back and sit-sprinting
4. When i realised GGUF was scratched, we requested to change our tactics to 'going forward' but the stewards said 'no' (assume because they had published on twitter our COT).
5. The tactics back-fired anyways and we ended up 3-wide for the first part, facing the breeze and pulling his ring out!!!

Anyone who thinks any of my horses / tactics are set for any intention other than winning have never met me but I do agree that the COT rule is silly.

[cityboy]

good luck to them i dont have anything to do with them, though it appears they have established a lot of `haters`in gaining their success so everyone to their own opinion regarding driving tactics etc.. having had experience race driving and for her to be so little sometimes plans go out the window as horses at times would be nearly impossible to control if she had to drive back in the field....they are not my friends nor do i think thy will be...

[Pena]

Sorry for accidentally inferring connections I meant trainer/driver combination. If your story is true which I have no reason to not believe even more reason why the COT rule is an absolute disgrace. The stewards have chosen this rule over you giving your horse it best chance. Shame on you stewards.

[Pena]

Adam I see no mention in the stewards report of 2 applications to stewards about a COT. Surprised about your comments re the scratching as is this horse not trained on the same property?

[Sofoulis]

Hi Jack. I didn't ask about whether the horse was going to be scratched (nor would I have thought to ask it!).
There was definitely a request to revise the tactics, perhaps it didn't get into their report because the 2nd request was made late (circa 15 mins before the race) as it was only then that I realised it was scratched and that the race would be completely different.
Cheers, Adam

[brent_L]

The joke of Change of Tactics raised it's ugly head again. Suave Stuey Lombo further back. Can the stewards say no you can't chop and change your tactics every week so you manipulate the race?
All 3 Tritton runners to race forward this arvo.....I'll be very interested to see how they construct this one, especially with a little speed from the 2 horse.

[doinmabest]

A staggering 1.49.6 Mile......
27.2, 28.3, 26.9, 27.2.....
Suave Stuey Lombo posts the third fastest winning mile time at Menangle....

[brent_L]

A staggering 1.49.6 Mile......
27.2, 28.3, 26.9, 27.2.....
Suave Stuey Lombo posts the third fastest winning mile time at Menangle....
And IMO probably a superior performance to those faster than him as he breezed. Staggering!

[Richard prior]

Yes 1 off the pegs the whole way, Fantastic run. The weather is perfect at the moment, A little overcast and it's the warmest it been for weeks at this time of the evening.

[Pena]

I was sent a private message last Wednesday from someone who indicated that they were a leading trainer. For the sake of the story lets call the trainer Ace. Ace questioned my stance on the driving tactics employed on SSL as discussed on this forum @ Menangle on the 7th June. Ace's main two points were that horses that sit outside Mach Beauty invariably finished tailed off and SSL was not suited to being driven in the chair over 2300m. In response I told Ace that the only other time SSL ran in a 2300m race outside the leader the first mile was run in 1:54.5 and on the 7/6/14 the first mile was run in 1:58.5 and Chariot King who is a sit sprinter and not suited by sitting parked still beat SSL home. I receive no response on my reply but looking at yesterdays result, Ace maybe I did know more than the actual trainer.
The disgrace of this whole situation is the COT rule. Stewards sanctioning horses not being their best chance to win is the biggest joke of all. Let the races run, examine the race afterwards and if drivers/trainers are not giving their horse their best chance charge them as such.
I hope to hear from you again Ace.

[Messenger]

Why does Menangle have both 2300m and 2400m races. Just the same it is good to see them not have all Mile programs

[doinmabest]

Kev, as you may recall when Menangle opened up they ran from 3 distances, 1609, 2300 and 3009 and as i understand, it was decided to make the feature age classics the classic distance of 2400m. I think it will only be used for the Oaks, Derbies and Breeders Challenge races.....

[doinmabest]

This happened two years back as I recall.....

[gregcattell]

Great win Read About Lexy last night
congrats to Lex & family

[Messenger]

Are you New South Welshmen happy to have a Victorian writing Menangle reviews!
I know that right now you are all probably watching that funny form of playground British Bulldog that you love, so I will sneak this one in

Mid year someone claiming to be Shane Tritton pm'd me about something on our forum
I wonder whether that same person still thinks
" Mach is and always will be a superior horse to steuy"

[Race For Fun]

Are you New South Welshmen happy to have a Victorian writing Menangle reviews!
I know that right now you are all probably watching that funny form of playground British Bulldog that you love, so I will sneak this one in

Mid year someone claiming to be Shane Tritton pm'd me about something on our forum
I wonder whether that same person still thinks
" Mach is and always will be a superior horse to steuy"

Or do they take turns? When they are both driven forward as is their normal pattern we will see. I am still waiting for a valid reason as to why SSL was allowed to have a COTFB (poor stewarding to approve something like that, sorry wrong thread...) the night he and MB were in same race a Menangle. Only time SSL did not leave the mobile in at least a forward direction.

By the time big races roll around............ Beautide
Retention barn...........Beautide
No lead and still a winning chance.......Beautide
Add Quinny...............Some race

[aussiebreno]

Or do they take turns? When they are both driven forward as is their normal pattern we will see. I am still waiting for a valid reason as to why SSL was allowed to have a COTFB (poor stewarding to approve something like that, sorry wrong thread...) the night he and MB were in same race a Menangle. Only time SSL did not leave the mobile in at least a forward direction.

By the time big races roll around............ Beautide
Retention barn...........Beautide
No lead and still a winning chance.......Beautide
Add Quinny...............Some race
I had to laugh at Sky on Saturday night. I missed who made the comment (perhaps Jason Bonnington but let's not point the finger just yet) but someone mused whether Beautide would head to Melbourne to avoid SSL. Please. Rattray said all along he will just ease Beautide back into racing. With his fitness building up Beautide has shown he can do it both ends, when it matters he will be driven more aggressive and SSL will be left to be content with these $30K features.

[Messenger]

Shane Tritton is considering joining our conversations. He hopes he would be afforded the same respect that every other poster expects

[brent_L]

Was that a nice return!
Bling It On 1st up from the outside draw doing a bit of work against seasoned open class horses in 1:51.3. Career best MR!
Only negative could be what did it take out of him? Time will tell.

[HaroldParker]

A flashback to a couple of years ago when there was little to no competition to Team Mac. Team driving at its finest. If I was paying the bills for the other two, I'd want them to sing for next weeks fees.