Victoria Cup field

[Messenger]

http://www.harnesslink.com/Australia/Who-will-miss-the-Vic-Cup-cut-

So who will miss out?

As the article states, 2 of the following are likely to miss out:

Restrepo, Franco Ledger, Lennytheshark, Suave Stuey Lombo, Avonova (but I am not sure that Im Corzin Terror should be on the 'given' list)

[brent_L]

ICT is exempt from the ballot after winning at Ballarat

[codywinnell]

Yep ICT wins the Ballarat Cup and so guarantees himself a start. I'd think Restrepo, Lennytheshark and Franco Ledger will all start. Suave Stuey a bit unlucky to miss out. But so is Chilli Palmer. Such is the quality of the field that there will be some top-notch pacers on the sideline...

[brent_L]

Is there a Cup consolation?? I agree with Cody re above 3 but that still leaves, as mentioned, Avonnova, Stuey, Chilli + the likes of Flaming Flutter, Maximan, Bit Of A Legend, Cold Major, Metro Mike, Smudge Bromac, Charlie Macsheen,........

[Richard prior]

Pretty sure that Maximan will be off the scene for a few months injured, Would love to see Lenny, Avonnova and Restrepo get the last 3 spots if #1 is correct and a Consolation would be a good race with some of the others that will miss out.

[brent_L]

Of course, totally forgot about Andy Gaths tweet re the highs (SA Derby) & lows (Maximan pulling up sore) of his SA Cup night.
There would be a couple of others that I have missed to make a consolation race exciting, surely.

[aussiebreno]

Imo Restrepo and Franco Ledger should get in based on winning country cups lately. Avonnoa gets in because he is the 5th highest earning horse this year and 5th on the grand circuit points tally, 2nd in a Grand Circuit race.

[Messenger]

I pretty much agree with you Brendan, although the Hamilton Cup is only worth as much as a NSW M0. I think Lenny might be unlucky

[Amlin]

Noms as of now (Monday) for the big one. Connections of Artoc perhaps hoping for a repeat of "Sulkygate" to get into this race.

[Big Mac]

Thought I read or heard somewhere that Lenny didn't qualify after a rough start in the shepparton cup

[apexguy]

Lenny wasn't passed from the standing start to be eligible for a start in the Hunter Cup.

[HaroldParker]

1 run back from a spell, every hope - Lennytheshark didn't do enough IMO to earn a start ahead of Avonnova, Suave Stuey Lombo and Restrepo / Franco Ledger.

Avonnova and Suave Stuey should be locks, they've earned it ... flip a coin Restrepo or Franco Ledger.

[HaroldParker]

and the jury is out on Philadelphia Man. The bubble burst the other night.

[Richard prior]

Was the Shepp Cup winner an automatic qualifier?? If not, I would probably have Franco Ledger in front of Lenny.

[Big Mac]

They will all get in ahead of Lenny as he did not qualify

[Big Mac]

I think Smoken Up failed to qualify a couple of years ago.

[teecee]

I think Smoken Up failed to qualify a couple of years ago.


Now you are definitely talking Hunter Cup, not Vic Cup

[teecee]

Was the Shepp Cup winner an automatic qualifier?? If not, I would probably have Franco Ledger in front of Lenny.

No.

[teecee]

Thought I read or heard somewhere that Lenny didn't qualify after a rough start in the shepparton cup


Unless he has been stood down to re trial by the stewards, that is not a Vic Cup condition of entry.

[Richard prior]

No.

Thanks Tony, I forgot to look at the conditions for the Shepp Cup.

[brent_L]

and the jury is out on Philadelphia Man. The bubble burst the other night.
Geez, you're a hard marker Bob. I'll give u 'the jury's out' but in no way did the 'bubble burst'......a 2nd place finish after 10 straight golds. I don't think the winner is getting the kudos he deserves whatsoever. A phenomenal performance imo!

[Njcstables]

1 run back from a spell, every hope - Lennytheshark didn't do enough IMO to earn a start ahead of Avonnova, Suave Stuey Lombo and Restrepo / Franco Ledger.

Avonnova and Suave Stuey should be locks, they've earned it ... flip a coin Restrepo or Franco Ledger.

I totally agree with you bob. For mine avon, stuey and restrepo in, ledger emg.

[Richard prior]

I guess we could ask the question Nathan, Has Suave Stuey done enough recently?? Whereas Ledger's run on Saturday night was staggering!! It will be very interesting to see what the make up of the field is.

[Big Mac]

My blue. I got hunter and vic cups mixed up

[Maorisidol]

I guess we could ask the question Nathan, Has Suave Stuey done enough recently?? Whereas Ledger's run on Saturday night was staggering!! It will be very interesting to see what the make up of the field is.

I agree Rich, to me Stuey hasn't proved anything past "lead at all costs and try to win"
Outside Menangle and on the back row against this Vic Cup field he's 50/1!
Due to that lack of versatility he misses out in my eyes.

[Messenger]

It is tricky trying to get the right balance of up and comers and established.
We are talking about leaving out M14 performers for M4's
It would not be unusual for at least one horse to be withdrawn for whatever reason in the next couple of days and throw in a scratching to give the Emerg a run (they have them don't they?) then all the credentialled get a run :)

[brent_L]

Chilli is the emg with Avonnova & Stuey missing out. Draw in 10 mins

[brent_L]

Lenny gets the ace!

[brent_L]

Punters who took the 50s re Lenny no more than 2 weeks ago are proud of themselves no doubt.
1 Lenny
2 FL
3 Beau
4 PM
5 ICT
6 CM
7 TTL
8 Chilli emg
9 DH
10 G'teed
11 FAR
12 the mare
13 Restrepo

[Race For Fun]

How does Chilli Palmer get a run (reserve) ahead of Avonnova? At least Avonnova can be relied on to pace all the way and he doesn't even wear hopples. Amazing!

[HaroldParker]

I assume the connections of Avonnova and Stuey declined the option to be an emergency for the race ?

It's flat out disrespectful that Avonnova in particular missed a start. Both him and Stuey deserved a place in the field ahead of Lenny, a case maybe for Restrepo marginally ahead of Stuey.

Brent, Lenny won't start 50's (only because of the draw) but he's no chance on what we saw last week.

[HaroldParker]

How does Chilli Palmer get a run (reserve) ahead of Avonnova? At least Avonnova can be relied on to pace all the way and he doesn't even wear hopples. Amazing!

Because HRV are insular minded. It's why the industry in Vic is in decay.

[aussiebreno]

Last season the Miracle Mile nearly threw up the same trifecta for the Vic Cup. Not much will change this year, save for the two NZ Cup winners entering the fray as well.

The current odds of PMan and Lenny compared to proven stars like Beautide and Christen Me is unfathomable. Absolutely ridiculous. Both of them will run midfield or a shade worse. Restrepo drawn the carpark at 50/1 will go back, go 6 wide around the final bend, cop a check and will still beat them both home.

If everybody brings their A game I rate Beau and CM the best in the land. Given the draw Beau more than deserves to be favourite, but he missed a start and they will make him work early. CM at the more enticing odds will be my bet.

[aussiebreno]

Avonnova is 5th on both the Grand Circuit points tally and dollars earned this year. I reckon Chilli be the next big gun on the grand circuit similar to a late maturing ITMQ but right here right now how he gets in ahead of Avonnova is mindblowing. Hope Avonnova connections just decided not to come?

[brent_L]

Brent, Lenny won't start 50's (only because of the draw) but he's no chance on what we saw last week.
What exactly did u expect from him first up for nearly 7 months in a stand (where he missed away by 10 yards) over 2700m??
I do like to use 'imo' when debating, but I don't need to in this case......he is an out and out star.
IMO if Beau is 95%+ fit, Lenny is the only other winning chance.

[Smoken]

Lenny will strip fitter & logically with what he has shown, he should be a massive danger! Nearly 7 months away from racing is a very long time, and to run 3rd was a massive job. I can't personally see Beautide winning in this field.

[mightymo]

The connections of Avonnova and Stuey both declined to be named an emergency

[HaroldParker]

Lenny will strip fitter & logically with what he has shown, he should be a massive danger! Nearly 7 months away from racing is a very long time, and to run 3rd was a massive job. I can't personally see Beautide winning in this field.

6 weeks ago from gate 3 Beautide would of been odds on. Recent scratchings + iffy trials = 5-2+. "If" Beautide is near spot on, he'll bully his way to the front and it's times and margins please judge. I took $3.70 and saved on Christen Me EW. $8 is way overs. Second elect for mine. May nibble away on For A Reason too. $51 and $13. I declared him last year and don't want to miss him if the improbable occurs.

As for Lenny, he shouldn't be there ahead of the other two. The draw gives him a shot I guess, but I still don't see how he wins. He isn't angling into a short sprint lane with that tendency to run up the track and nor is he leading and winning sustaining pressure. I'm a big fan of the horse but Avonnova or Stuey from that draw would definitely be holding the top and a great race would be even better.

[Richard prior]

Hi Bob, Lenny's had a few trials at Shepp before his run the other night and Aikey's been driving him with a sit, Have a look at the recent trials on the Shepparton Harness Racing site if you get a chance, 15/01/15 Led and wobbled on the corner, 06/01/15 Had cover and 30/12/14 Stand Start and took cover.

[littlelenny]

The Vic cup always attracts a dream field and it's delivered once again.
I'm still questioning how they could of left out Avonnova I really thought he deserved his place in the field. But doesn't matter that's racing and there had to be a hard luck story with the depth of horses on offer currently.
But to the race itself it's going to be a cracker of a race with Beautide finding the front and i imagine the moves won't stop. I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of the 2012 Edition where the winner comes from the back row gets a great tow up in the 3 wide line and is too strong. My picks are Guaranteed, Christen Me, Beautide, Adore Me.
Looking forward to Saturday night.

[Messenger]

So who is Gavin driving? Who should he be driving?

[brent_L]

Gauranteed. He's drawn quite well in 9 (emg out) giving him the option to move early, probably only around 2 horses to the chair or stay 1 x 2 and let Philly Man apply the acid to the fav before moving 3 wide a little later. Scenario one more likely as it gives the stablemate the cover in the one-one. My speed map obviously has the 5,6 & 7 all going back at the start. Gav said he'll decide tomorrow morning after they've all worked & he's spoken to Emma/Clayton.

[aussiebreno]

Anybody a fan of jumble puzzles? Try and unjumble these:

Philadelphia Man
Terror To Love
Adore Me

$14
$5.50
$11


Here are some clues:
Adore Me: Put in a colossal run to win the NZ Cup, beating Franco Ledger by about 12m. Just beaten by Christen Me when Franco Ledger ran 2nd last in the NZ FFA.
Terror to Love: 3 time NZ Cup winner who sat outside the Miracle Mile winner and beat Flaming Flutter who had the charmed run by 20m.
Philadelphia Man: Wouldn't have beat Young Modern had Lance handed up (plus running home sub 27s not Young Moderns go) ran down by Franco Ledger and beat Flaming Flutter by 5m. Went 1.52.6 on a night the big guns went 1.49.1. Other highlights include winning an M0.

Anyone care to have a crack at unscrambling the names and odds!

[teecee]

$5.5 pm
$11 am
$14 ttl



anybody a fan of jumble puzzles? Try and unjumble these:

Philadelphia man
terror to love
adore me

$14
$5.50
$11


here are some clues:
Adore me: Put in a colossal run to win the nz cup, beating franco ledger by about 12m. Just beaten by christen me when franco ledger ran 2nd last in the nz ffa.
Terror to love: 3 time nz cup winner who sat outside the miracle mile winner and beat flaming flutter who had the charmed run by 20m.
Philadelphia man: Wouldn't have beat young modern had lance handed up (plus running home sub 27s not young moderns go) ran down by franco ledger and beat flaming flutter by 5m. Went 1.52.6 on a night the big guns went 1.49.1. Other highlights include winning an m0.

Anyone care to have a crack at unscrambling the names and odds!

[teecee]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/65425632/Franco-primed-for-Cup

[Richard prior]

Just to be different,
TTL
P-MAN
AM

[brent_L]

I haven't heard anyone throw up the possibility that Philly Man runs to the top? If Beau is underdone, what better place to be than behind him getting a suck along to the sprint lane?

[Messenger]

We have our drivers except for the Grieve stable

http://www.harness.org.au/fields.cfm?mc=MX310115&fromstate=vic#7

[Messenger]

We could have done without the sporting clashes - Asian Cup and Australian Open.
I will make sure I get the Sun tomorrow to see what coverage we get.
The Age will have nothing BUT
Can one of you Sydney-siders let us know what coverage the SMH gives the race

[Messenger]

Last driver - Anthony Butt on Im Corzin Terror

[Messenger]

I wonder whether the Vic Cup shouldn't be a field of 10 with a $60k+ consolation on the same program

[arlington]

I wonder whether the Vic Cup shouldn't be a field of 10 with a $60k+ consolation on the same program


Would that mean two owners would be disappointed not to be running for 340K Kev? Who would the two be missing out tomorrow?

[Messenger]

I was sort of thinking of Avon and SSL not having a reason to come down.
Plus I also think that in a 12 horse field, the horses in the last 2 posns at the 800m have next to no hope
The 2 that would miss out might be Lenny and Restrepo. Although they are genuine chances, I am not sure that they really had the credentials to keep Avon and SSL out.
(ICT misses out if they get rid of the excemptions)
I am not unhappy with the 12 mind you and I do take your point Wayne