Could G Hall harm WA racing

[p plater]

Firstly, G Hall snr is a great trainer and this comment is not a personal attack.

Using the State Premiership numbers for the top 10 Metro trainers it appears he is so dominate with 40% of the 270 races with 108 winners and of the $4.8m offered in prizemoney, his stable has pocketed over $2m.

Can the rest of the trainers survive without a better share of the prizemoney, I think it is accepted that training fees alone will not support a stable.

In the longer term could we see a decrease in trainer numbers in the West that feel they can't compete against such a strong stable.

Adding 2nd & 3rd on the list (14.8% and 12.2%) that's 67% to 3 trainers and the rest must try and survive on 33% of the pool.

[Messenger]

That is scary dominance Bailey. I wonder what % of stakemoney the Allstar team take over in NZ? (I might have to research that one)

[jackthepunter]

Its nothing new,he been the leading trainer by a big margin for a number of years now. Its simple he has owners who are prepared to spend big money buying top class going horses from nz , he works them hard gets them very fit, and around the 800meter track they normally lead or death seat so they control the race and very hard to beat.You can't penalties someone for beeing better than most.

[p plater]

Jack, your comments are spot on and no reference was made to restrict him.
Will up and coming plus current trainers be able to survive financially when a single trainer is so dominate, be it WA or any other State.
For instance, at present the multiple runners, people could say Team driving or "we can't beat them" so trainers don't nominate and smaller fields.
This is the type of thing I was referring to,as being harmful.
I'm sure others will think of other consequences.

[hugdon]

Hi Bailey I do not believe it causes too much of a problem [Tommy Smith was on top for how many years?]. IMO Snrs time at the top is numbered just like the Warwicks, the Kersleys and any other trainer who manages to have good owners and great nags. I believe they (horse and trainer) bring people to the trots to see them win/lose which in the long run ultimately helps the game. Hopefully this is the case as I wish to enter the game later this year or earlier next year. I will be utilising the fella down the road who trains his own as a hobby. He has bred, trained and raced horses with success. As a apprentice soothsayer I think the Bonds will replace senior and be the next dominant force in WA

[p plater]

Jim, understand your reference to Tommy Smith but times have changed since those days and harness racing has not progressed as we would hope.
Another point you mention is worth thought imo, having good owners with the money to invest, it's a shame the majority of G Hall's good stock are from NZ.
This does not help the local breeding industry as against Mick Lombardo some years ago.
Good luck with your training venture, are you intending to race local or imported stock?

[hugdon]

Hi Bailey Thanks for your comments but I am still convinced it is cyclical and although TJ has gone so have Waterhouse, Snowden, Hawkes etc. I agree with you that Snr seems to get a lot of his stock from NZ and currently has another beauty in Beaudine Boaz. Unfortunately most appear to be geldings Quinny, Beaudine Boaz are geldings and the Falcon Strike went to Qld and was a bit of a let down. As for me just wish to own and would more than likely buy local (Perth) rather than incurring the freight costs of buying in the east and then shipping home. Maybe could borrow a horse float and have an adventure across the nullabor. "Nullabor Nymph spotted riding bare back on Horse" Anyone apart from me old enough to remember the Nullabor Nymph in the early to mid seventies

[G-Mac]

The Hall model is to purchase tried and tested horses from elsewhere, bring them over, work them hard and start cashing in. He and his team have a great eye for talent (and the type that will suit his training style) and obviously good bloodstock agents who can source opportunities. The more success he has, the bigger warchest his owners have to buy the next one. Unfortunately, when a model is succesfull, others will replicate it and the result harms the breeding industry. Why would he ask his owners to stump the cash for a yearling, pay fees for 12 months, only to find out if the thing can actually go? His current model offers a return on investment in a much shorter time frame and when you are reaching for your wallet this is a massive contributing factor to the decision you make. I would love to see a team like his invest more in locally bred horses but it is his business and he can do as he pleases. The crowds still look pretty good at GP so I would say he isn't doing any harm at all.

[Richard prior]

^^^^ Well Said!!

[p plater]

Glen, thanks for the model summary of G Hall, you are spot on.
Back to my original post, given this success and the amount of winners/prizemoney going to one stable, could this work against others coming into the training industry in WA as they feel they could not make a living from it....the top 3 trainers take out 67%.
Does anyone have stats on trainer numbers in WA?
Do the strong get stronger and the industry weaker.

[Chariots]

My observation is that it is a very viable business option for the Halls themselves but not sure about the wider owner base.

Those involved with ITMQ have reinvested heavily into other horses and many have been unsuccessful.

Al long as owners are prepared to keep tipping in the business model will survive for the Halls and the Bonds but I am not sure I would want to be investing heavily in the project.

[Messenger]

Glen, thanks for the model summary of G Hall, you are spot on.
Back to my original post, given this success and the amount of winners/prizemoney going to one stable, could this work against others coming into the training industry in WA as they feel they could not make a living from it....the top 3 trainers take out 67%.
Does anyone have stats on trainer numbers in WA?
Do the strong get stronger and the industry weaker.

From HRA Annual On-Line
The number of Registered trainers in WA peaked at 1426 in 83-84
and has been pretty much on a steady decline since
in 07-08 it was 704
in 13-14 it was 587

Total WA sires peaked at 209 in 78-79 with total foals being 1377
in 13-14 there were 21 sires and foal numbers in the 400's
(there has of course been a rise in imported semen foals this millennium but it peaked at 145 in 09-10)

Horses named has fallen from a peak of 1158 to 411 last season

The blame cannot really be NZ as 3 times NZ imports topped 100 last millennium
and for the last 7 seasons has remained constant between 103 - 134



WA is not alone in these dwindling numbers. Here is Vic for comparison

The number of Registered Trainers in Vic peaked at 2374 in 80-81
and has steadily declined to 1248 last season


Total Vic sires peaked at 548 in 78-79 with total foals over 4500
and was down to 79 last season with foals below 2000
Vic Imported semen foals peaked at 493 in 10-11

Horses named has fallen from a peak of 3672 to 1418

NZ imports have fallen away dramatically in Vic
It was only 131 last season which is less than it was in 87-88
after peaking at 327 in 10-11

http://www.harness.org.au/hra/annual/public/stats/regn_state.pdf

[p plater]

Kevin thanks for your info.
Looking at WA figures, trainers have declined by around 17% in 8 years.
It would appear that 25% of the racing stock are from NZ

[hugdon]

Hi Kev
Thanks for the time taken to get these stats. Bailey if the top 3 trainers have accounted for 67% of races and winnings this season, and the season has a bit left to go, it could be feasible that the top 3 trainers could win considerably more of the remaining stake money making the pickings for the other 584 trainers somewhat slim. It therefore behoves me to ask do other states have such a dominant trainer(s). If so does anyone think those trainers could harm the industry in their respective states? Something to mull over!

[Messenger]

Hi Kev
Thanks for the time taken to get these stats. Bailey if the top 3 trainers have accounted for 67% of races and winnings this season, and the season has a bit left to go, it could be feasible that the top 3 trainers could win considerably more of the remaining stake money making the pickings for the other 584 trainers somewhat slim. It therefore behoves me to ask do other states have such a dominant trainer(s). If so does anyone think those trainers could harm the industry in their respective states? Something to mull over!
There are of course some faults in Bailey's opening post - it is only based on the Top 10 figures and what % GH has won out of the total for the Top 10 - which he clearly states BUT there are surely a lot more races won by trainers outside the top 10 on the premiership total. G Hall may have won far less than 40% of all metro races AND remember Bailey is only talking about METRO races. The only way to know what % he has won is to know how many Metro races have been raced in WA this season - this is something I do not know

I can illustrate how this may be distorting the figures using Vic figures as I keep a Vic db and know how many Metro races there have been in Vic (that includes Country Cups of 15k)
Using only the Top 10 figures which is all Bailey had at his fingertips
You would think that Emma Stewart has won 25% of Vic Metro races as she has won 25 and the rest of the top 10 have only won 75 making a total of 100
http://www.harness.org.au/vic-premierships.cfm
But I know that there have actually been 218 Metro races so she has won more like 11%

This link allows you to click on each state to see their Top 10
http://www.harness.org.au/content.cfm?id=60

This link allows you to see the whole countries Trainers are faring
http://www.harness.org.au/hra/annual/public/drivers/trnrs-all-1415.pdf

[hugdon]

Hey Kev
Thanks again (I think)

[p plater]

Kevin and Jim,
Kevin is totally correct in that the figures I used were the published Metro top 10 results for WA.
I must say, I am astounded that Kevin's Data Base on Victoria identifies 218 metro races against the 100 in the top 10 but I have no doubt his figures would be correct.
That said and for comparison using the Metro 10 ten stats for NSW, Vic and Qld (only Metro recorded)
NSW
S. Tritton 17.2% winners and 18% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 45.9% winners and 40.1% prizemoney

Vic.
E Stewart 25% winners and 18.7% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 56.5% winners and 43.5% prizemoney

Qld
G Dixon 28.1% winners and 29.3% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 62.5% winners and 61.5% prizemoney

As you can see NSW and Vic the strongest eastern States top out at 43.5% for the top 3 trainers using these figures.

[Richard prior]

Hey Teecee, Would love to know M.Purdon's Allstars stable stats in NZ??

[Messenger]

Kevin and Jim,
Kevin is totally correct in that the figures I used were the published Metro top 10 results for WA.
I must say, I am astounded that Kevin's Data Base on Victoria identifies 218 metro races against the 100 in the top 10 but I have no doubt his figures would be correct.
That said and for comparison using the Metro 10 ten stats for NSW, Vic and Qld (only Metro recorded)
NSW
S. Tritton 17.2% winners and 18% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 45.9% winners and 40.1% prizemoney

Vic.
E Stewart 25% winners and 18.7% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 56.5% winners and 43.5% prizemoney

Qld
G Dixon 28.1% winners and 29.3% prizemoney
Top 3 trainers 62.5% winners and 61.5% prizemoney

As you can see NSW and Vic the strongest eastern States top out at 43.5% for the top 3 trainers using these figures.

If HRA's table was as friendly as HRNZ I would not need to keep a Vic db as we would be able to click on the heading State and all the trainers would be sorted by state
I campaigned hard to get the full table we have now but it would be so much better if we could sort it - because it is password protected we cannot convert it to Excel to sort ourselves either
I will contact HRA and see what we can do

ps 218 so far this season Bailey, 389 for the whole of last year

[teecee]

Hey Teecee, Would love to know M.Purdon's Allstars stable stats in NZ??


http://infohorse.hrnz.co.nz/datahr/premierships/tpship.htm

[Messenger]

http://infohorse.hrnz.co.nz/datahr/premierships/tpship.htm

and you can see why HRNZ is number one harness site
Easy to copy that table and put it onto Excel so that I can now report (much to my surprise)
that the $2.88m the AllStars have won is less than 14% of the total NZ prizemoney so far this season

And the top 3 trainers have taken a bit less than 22% of total prizemoney

[p plater]

Again only using NZ's top 10 so that comparisons can be made.
Mark/Nat combo has 22.1% winners but there are some very good ones in those for the prizemoney percentage is 41.8%
Top 3 trainers 65.4% prizemoney.
Again as Kevin has warned, these figures are only top 10 totals not the total pool.
Interesting the 22.1% winning strike rate of top 10 winners total.

[p plater]

Hey Kevin now you have an Excel, try North Island vs South Island numbers

[Chariots]

Hard to compare NZ with individual states.

A NZ/AUST comparison would throw up some different stats.

[Messenger]

Again only using NZ's top 10 so that comparisons can be made.
Mark/Nat combo has 22.1% winners but there are some very good ones in those for the prizemoney percentage is 41.8%
Top 3 trainers 65.4% prizemoney.
Again as Kevin has warned, these figures are only top 10 totals not the total pool.
Interesting the 22.1% winning strike rate of top 10 winners total.

Bailey, I cannot really see any point in quoting Top 10 %'s when we do have the total pool %'s available as they are very misleading - 41.8% is really only 13.9% etc
VERY funny about South and North :p

[Messenger]

Hard to compare NZ with individual states.

A NZ/AUST comparison would throw up some different stats.

I think I have them Ray - well close to
For 2013-14 Aust Total stakes was $111,597,756
The top earning trainer was G Hall snr with 3,138,183
so that means he won 2.8% of Aust stakemoney

For 2013-14 NZ Total stakes was roughly 29,700,798 (I say roughly because this figure does not include any 4th down prizemoney)
The top earning trainer was the Allstars with 3,070,286
so that means they won somewhere around 10% of NZ stakemoney

After finding these figures I came to the conclusion that comparing NZ with Aust is NOT really a fair comparison as Aust is too big for G Hall to flit over to the Eastern states all the time
a fairer comparison would be NZ to Vic or NSW who both have about the same Total Stakes as NZ

[Messenger]

What is wrong with this picture/field?

With a couple of unexpected scratchings G Hall Snr could have 8/9 runners in the Village Kid, 6/9 seems absurd at this level

[Fan of Jate]

Kevin, you are right about the absurdity of it. It does show the dominance of G. Hall Sr and most of those horses are pretty good and would go well in any stable. GS Bond follows a similar buying pattern but with his horses winning less metro races. Both of the trainers are from NZ and buy most, if not all of their horses from NZ and have owners who will pay good money hence they do dominate the WA racing scene. It looks obvious that it does affect other trainers who cannot get FFA horses like these. It has to be reducing the numbers of trainers in the West, although I cant support that with strong evidence. If you lessened the major impact these two trainers have then a more even playing field would eventuate but that will never happen. NM Johns a trotting trainer often has at least 50% of the field in WA country races but does not win that often because the quality is not there, so the number of entrants in a race can be misleading but with 75% of the field you would expect to win. Would this type of field happen in a $60,000 race in Victoria or NSW?, I think not

[Mighty Atom]

I'm a small punter so I am not influenced by wagering but I do like to see top quality horses race and have no interest in the also-rans. It's the top level of harness racing that drew me to the sport (for the want of a better word) in the first place. Harness racing in WA would be dead without Gary Hall Snr and his clients and to a much lesser extent Greg and Skye Bond. Crowds are drawn to the racetracks to see outstanding horses in the G1 events they don't come to see the M1/M2's etc and in WA G.Hall Snr provides these horses. I disagree with the perceived agenda of harness racing clubs to reduce the number of trainers to make racing more supportive of the big time professional trainers and this has been going on for some time now. Over the decades, it has been the small time trainers that have always come up with the individual outstanding horses. So maybe it's time for the professional trainers to stop bemoaning the likes of the Halls find some spending clients and start upgrading. As they say, if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen.