Messenger
08-05-2016, 01:51 PM
I was re-reading the racebook from my visit on Breeders Challenge Sunday (a weird thing to do I know) and I noticed something strange about the barrier stats.
The 'winningest' front row barrier over the mile is barrier 2 (13.51% from 185 races)
The worst front row barrier over 2300m is barrier 2 (1.59% from 63 races)
Surely this has to be a statistical anomaly as it is hard to imagine how barrier 2 could be a disadvantage
These stats were from Sep 1 up to but not including June 26. Does anybody have an update? (assuming there has been some 2300m races since)
You will notice that I qualified 2 being the winningest over the mile 'for the front row' as Barriers 12, 13, 14 all have better winning percentages (14.63%, 15.38%, 16.67%). Barriers 13 and 14 are off a small sample (26 & 12 races) so they too could be an anomaly but Barrier 12 is from a healthy sample of 82 races
I am assuming these are true barrier stats and not 'number' stats as Menangle is supposed to have a field limit of 12 for Mobiles and 20 for a Stand but I cannot imagine there have been many/any Mile Stands at Menangle this season. I am guessing their must have been plenty of races where one or two emergencies were listed if there were really 26 races with a 13 barrier and 12 races with a 14 barrier
Not following NSW I am probably preaching to the converted but it would seem that one should not let a second row draw over the mile trip deter you except for the inside second line 11 spot
I am interested in some local knowledge feedback
The 'winningest' front row barrier over the mile is barrier 2 (13.51% from 185 races)
The worst front row barrier over 2300m is barrier 2 (1.59% from 63 races)
Surely this has to be a statistical anomaly as it is hard to imagine how barrier 2 could be a disadvantage
These stats were from Sep 1 up to but not including June 26. Does anybody have an update? (assuming there has been some 2300m races since)
You will notice that I qualified 2 being the winningest over the mile 'for the front row' as Barriers 12, 13, 14 all have better winning percentages (14.63%, 15.38%, 16.67%). Barriers 13 and 14 are off a small sample (26 & 12 races) so they too could be an anomaly but Barrier 12 is from a healthy sample of 82 races
I am assuming these are true barrier stats and not 'number' stats as Menangle is supposed to have a field limit of 12 for Mobiles and 20 for a Stand but I cannot imagine there have been many/any Mile Stands at Menangle this season. I am guessing their must have been plenty of races where one or two emergencies were listed if there were really 26 races with a 13 barrier and 12 races with a 14 barrier
Not following NSW I am probably preaching to the converted but it would seem that one should not let a second row draw over the mile trip deter you except for the inside second line 11 spot
I am interested in some local knowledge feedback