Leeton Breeders Plate Debate

[trish]

Oh dear 14 (in 2 heats) for a $40,000 2yo race.




http://www.dailyadvertiser.com.au/story/4370952/bad-draw/

[Messenger]

Oh dear 14 (in 2 heats) for a $40,000 2yo race.




http://www.dailyadvertiser.com.au/story/4370952/bad-draw/

Maybe Hector has scared them off - not JJ but Call Me Hector

https://www.harness.org.au/fields.cfm?mc=LE261216

[Fan of Jate]

Very strange, where are all the 2 yo's ? Owners should be jumping at this one. There are no other 2 year old races in the land on that date.

[aussiebreno]

Not surprising or strange at all.

Been a similar story for a number of years.

They are only early season 2yos so many not ready to race anyway but with so many major 2yo races later in the season why would you want your 2yo up and about this early to burn out before the big G1s. Even if you are ready to race this time of year it would do your head in nominating for run of the mill 2yo races have the races not stand up due to lack of noms.

Leeton have moved the race back to Australia Day for next season because NSW have stopped 2yo racing before Dec 31. Should be moved back later - end of Feb would be ok in the lead up to Bathurst (no more Linden Huntley anymore either).

[Messenger]

Very strange, where are all the 2 yo's ? Owners should be jumping at this one. There are no other 2 year old races in the land on that date.
There were only 3844 live foals in 2014-15
That is 1035 less than in 2011-12 (a drop of 21% in 3yrs)
That is 1501 less than in 2010-11 (a drop of 28% in 4yrs)
We seem to be declining at a rate of 7% pa

There were however 22 runners for 3 heats last year

There may be less trainers aiming their babies at early 2yo races or maybe it is simply a case of less being ready this year

ps It was worse in 2014 - only 2 heats of 6 while 2013 was the same as this year so I guess 14 this year despite a decline of 21% in foals over the 3yrs is pretty good :confused:

[aussiebreno]

14 ran in the heats in 2007. Foal numbers, while an issue in itself, isn't the reasoning for the lowly number of entrants at Leeton.

[trish]

NSW..........in 2015 total services (inc imp semen) 1624 . In 2016 total services (inc imp semen) 913.

[Messenger]

14 ran in the heats in 2007. Foal numbers, while an issue in itself, isn't the reasoning for the lowly number of entrants at Leeton.

I don't know whether we should go back that far Brendan as it was in 2008-9 that the $ for the heats and final doubled

2008 = 22
2009 = 18 (2 heats)
2010 = 18 (3 heats)
2011 = 27 (first time TAB meeting)
2012 = 18 (2 heats)
2013 = 14
2014 = 12
2015 = 22
2016 = 14

so it seems the decline has been most pronounced in 3 of the last 4 yrs

[Gtrain]

2007 was the year of EI therefore prize money was less and no one could travel. There were only 28 pay up to nominate for the race initially. The November nomination fee probably limits its number a little. Anyway I got one to cheer for, god give it speed!!

[aussiebreno]

I don't know whether we should go back that far Brendan as it was in 2008-9 that the $ for the heats and final doubled

2008 = 22
2009 = 18 (2 heats)
2010 = 18 (3 heats)
2011 = 27 (first time TAB meeting)
2012 = 18 (2 heats)
2013 = 14
2014 = 12
2015 = 22
2016 = 14

so it seems the decline has been most pronounced in 3 of the last 4 yrs
2006 heats 18 entries for $ 31,000 final. 2007 heats 14 entries for $ 15,000 final.
$31,000 of 2006 worth about same as $ 40,000 today yet still only 18 runners. It is the time of year.

[Messenger]

2007 was the year of EI therefore prize money was less and no one could travel. There were only 28 pay up to nominate for the race initially. The November nomination fee probably limits its number a little. Anyway I got one to cheer for, god give it speed!!

Of course the year of EI

Good luck Grant

[Messenger]

2006 heats 18 entries for $ 31,000 final. 2007 heats 14 entries for $ 15,000 final.
$31,000 of 2006 worth about same as $ 40,000 today yet still only 18 runners. It is the time of year.

I agree that it would be the major reason Breno but fewer and fewer bred is eventually going to hurt

[Gtrain]

The drop off of this race is due to an evolution of the breed in Australia. When every man and his dog was able to breed one to the stallion around the corner, everyone got in and seen what their horse had. Foal numbers were bigger because it was easier to breed a competitive one. With the influx of American speed, high service fees to imported stallions, means people don't want to "push" their young horses along. No one will breed to a local stallion in the area because the resultant foal simply will not compete with the Bettors or Art majors of this world.

[trish]

The drop off of this race is due to an evolution of the breed in Australia. When every man and his dog was able to breed one to the stallion around the corner, everyone got in and seen what their horse had. Foal numbers were bigger because it was easier to breed a competitive one. With the influx of American speed, high service fees to imported stallions, means people don't want to "push" their young horses along. No one will breed to a local stallion in the area because the resultant foal simply will not compete with the Bettors or Art majors of this world.





And who can afford those stallions year after year when you only break even or sadly for so so many get smashed with other stallions not up to the caliber of the top stallions at the yearling sales.

[Fan of Jate]

Wished I could have got my 2 yo into a "run of the mill" race worth $40,000.I can see the point about not many up and running at that stage but obviously the owners have a fair bit of money over that way. Especially only 2 heats and only 2 horses have actually raced which indicates fields that aren't strong, there are also a fair few group 1 winners in the paddock waiting for their moment of glory by the sound of it !!!! How many Group 1 races are there? Give me early money in the bank any day.

[Gtrain]

You must nominate for the Breeders Plate by November 1 Pat, with a $250 nomination fee. It's a fee I've paid a few times, twice this year but I'll only be having my first starter this year. Money is enticing, but for someone who only breeds one or two, having a horse that will run sub 2mins let alone in December/January is tough. The favourite has already banked a 57 mile to his name hard held and has scared off a few. The 40k doesn't look as great for your first starter if you can't see the first past the post finish cause your horse is still coming around the home bend!

[aussiebreno]

Wished I could have got my 2 yo into a "run of the mill" race worth $40,000.I can see the point about not many up and running at that stage but obviously the owners have a fair bit of money over that way. Especially only 2 heats and only 2 horses have actually raced which indicates fields that aren't strong, there are also a fair few group 1 winners in the paddock waiting for their moment of glory by the sound of it !!!! How many Group 1 races are there? Give me early money in the bank any day.

The run of the mill races are the few thousand dollar C front races scheduled December, January, Feb heck even March that do not stand up due to lack of noms. Why have your horse up for one race when there are not any other races to go in.

[Messenger]

It is fair money worth targeting if you have an early maturer and there is nothing wrong with just 2 races for a 2yo's first campaign

[aussiebreno]

It is fair money worth targeting if you have an early maturer and there is nothing wrong with just 2 races for a 2yo's first campaign

You still need to have your horse up fit enough this early in the season to race let alone back up in a week when it is 40 degree heat and they have been running 2minutes in the finals lately. When there are races March-Aug that will stand up every week or worth $100,000+ if you do have a good one it is little wonder trainers aren't pushing them and prefer to wait.

[Gtrain]

It is a night meeting Brenno. Most trainers who travel significant distances stay for the week. The number of trainers doing that is less and less though. The race has previously carried bonus prizes such as a new float to the winning trainer. This still hasn't increased the numbers in any significant way.
The way I look at it though, if your horse can roll along ok, it's an easier 40k to target than running second in the Breeders Crown.

[aussiebreno]

It is a night meeting Brenno. Most trainers who travel significant distances stay for the week. The number of trainers doing that is less and less though. The race has previously carried bonus prizes such as a new float to the winning trainer. This still hasn't increased the numbers in any significant way.
The way I look at it though, if your horse can roll along ok, it's an easier 40k to target than running second in the Breeders Crown.
At the end of the day if the race was in Feb or later there would be a lot more entrants. So many trainers give up on a prep because Dec races weren't standing up (or this year there were none around) so you're rushing your horse to be ready even though there will no other races for it, or people just don't even bother in the first place because it so early. I would love a dollar for how many times a Riverina trainer has said "I would have liked to get to the Breeders Plate but the horse just wasn't ready yet". If the race is in Feb or later that horse is ready and the heat fields have a lot more numbers.

Edit: Also, are they immune to heat in their paddock and on the float?

[Messenger]

You are always at the mercy of the weather gods - down here Feb is much hotter than Dec
Exertion in the extreme heat (or more so humidity) is the concern

[Gtrain]

The crowds the race draws in that time period is far superior to any other meeting in the Riverina. Far far superior. The heats night is the best crowd night of any trotting meeting in nsw. I don't think any trainers "rush" their horses to get ready for it. You either give them a chance, they show it, or they go out to the paddock. Pushing back has been discussed for a long time, and will happen next year, but previously has been unviable as it clashes with other carnivals, or other 2yo races. When it's pushed back, are people just going to need their 2yos to run 1.58 instead of 1.59 and still be pulling out for the same reasons?
It's an art getting one ready. Ask Col Thomas, Peter Manning etc. I would love a dollar for every trainer who wished they had a horse in a 40k race but their horse wasn't good enough. That's no real statement. I want one in the miracle mile every year too.
The race is unique. Field numbers have struggled but go through the starters and compare it to the field you get at the Young Cup or the Wagga Pacers Cup. The vast majority are Riverina trained. Four from the last five winners have been. It keeps serious prizemoney in the area.
I also think you'll find that four from the last five winners lived in stables, where trainers are able to shelter horses a little from the heat.

[Fan of Jate]

A good discussion and always good to hear every angle relating to the topic, my point was the lack of entrants and the prize money being seen as average, although it is more than the recent inter dominion consolation a few weeks ago. So IMO something is out of kilter

[aussiebreno]

The crowds the race draws in that time period is far superior to any other meeting in the Riverina. Far far superior. The heats night is the best crowd night of any trotting meeting in nsw. I don't think any trainers "rush" their horses to get ready for it. You either give them a chance, they show it, or they go out to the paddock. Pushing back has been discussed for a long time, and will happen next year, but previously has been unviable as it clashes with other carnivals, or other 2yo races. When it's pushed back, are people just going to need their 2yos to run 1.58 instead of 1.59 and still be pulling out for the same reasons?
It's an art getting one ready. Ask Col Thomas, Peter Manning etc. I would love a dollar for every trainer who wished they had a horse in a 40k race but their horse wasn't good enough. That's no real statement. I want one in the miracle mile every year too.
The race is unique. Field numbers have struggled but go through the starters and compare it to the field you get at the Young Cup or the Wagga Pacers Cup. The vast majority are Riverina trained. Four from the last five winners have been. It keeps serious prizemoney in the area.
I also think you'll find that four from the last five winners lived in stables, where trainers are able to shelter horses a little from the heat.
I am in that crowd and know full well - although a lot of the crowd are Leeton locals it has been noticeably small in recent years since it go Sky status. Albury New Years only crowd that can compare to Leetons carnival in the Riverina. Just put the Leeton Cup on Boxing Day and make sure Billy Trembath and Reece Maguire have drives. The locals are still looking for somewhere to drink and can't name the horses anyway.
The Linden Huntley is no more so late Feb/early March would be a better fit. As it is they've changed it to clash with the Junee Cup...
The $6000 C races do not stand up in December, January. By March the 2yo races are beginning to stand up because more 2yos are ready and some are targeting Bathurst. Pretty simple I would have thought if you don't have the horse pool racing in December but have the horse pool racing in March (or August - any month) - what month are you going to get the bigger pool of horses for the heats?

Even President Punch says "a lot of them don't want to do it and worry about starting early"

Trainer Kahlefeldt says “I think it’s a great move, but I don’t think it will get a lot more – it will get a few more horses but it won’t be the numbers they got years ago.

“Foals are being born later and people are setting them for the bigger group ones.

“People get theit horses ready for Bathurst and then there is a flow on to the Breeders Challenge, APG and Breeders Crown.”

Kahlefeldt would like to see the date moved to be a lead up race for Bathurst’s two-year-old features, however changing the date isn’t being considered by the club.

http://www.dailyadvertiser.com.au/story/3107145/breeders-plate-gets-new-cash-injection/

Paul is actually one of the strongest supporters of the Plate and has had multiple runners in the heats a few times over the years. So if Paul is a supporter of the Plate but even he wants it pushed back because of Bathurst imagine how many other trainers are out there who would support the Breeders Plate if it was pushed back. The likes of Stephen Harris, Matt Harris, Trevor White, David Kennedy the list goes on.

[Gtrain]

I know the club did not want to clash with Junee. Tried their best to avoid it. They never wanted a change of date. The shortened two year old season and HRNSW forced it upon them and that will have ramifications for years to come. The true effect won't be known for five years. People will breed later, I know I'm still considering getting one in foal now because it won't matter. Previously I'd never breed now.

As for setting the horses for group ones, that's everyone's pipe dream. But should the 2yo season be structured so one horse can flow through it and win everything? Is having regional series with large financial benefits a bad thing? I don't think so. And I think here is where our opinion differs. I dread the day when Tritons or the like bring their teams of imported kiwis and spank everyone, going around at $1.20. D Jack may have one going around at $1.20 this year though, I'm aware of that! Traditionally the Breeders Plate provides a fantastic performance punting spectacle. Does it matter so much that there is only two heats? I do remember watching an interdominion heat with two horses. The final will be a full field, small track, big crowd for $40k. Seems ok by me!
The $6000 C races don't stand up here in NSW because there is the stigma of 2yos racing that you seem to also buy into. Victoria seem to always be able to get a few C clad races up and going every year. This shortening the season won't fix that problem. All it does is minimize the time frame people have to win their races. A horse can have a small setback and the be forced to miss three months and then bang, 2yo season is done. Foal numbers are the biggest issue. Field sizes across NSW, have been a serious issue over the past few months. Hobby Breeders aren't propping up the foal numbers the way they have in the past, say twenty years ago, and the studs can't turn a profit selling the ones they breed every year.

[Messenger]

Moved from 'Holy database Batman - Foal numbers'

[aussiebreno]

I know the club did not want to clash with Junee. Tried their best to avoid it. They never wanted a change of date. The shortened two year old season and HRNSW forced it upon them and that will have ramifications for years to come. The true effect won't be known for five years. People will breed later, I know I'm still considering getting one in foal now because it won't matter. Previously I'd never breed now.

As for setting the horses for group ones, that's everyone's pipe dream. But should the 2yo season be structured so one horse can flow through it and win everything? Is having regional series with large financial benefits a bad thing? I don't think so. And I think here is where our opinion differs. I dread the day when Tritons or the like bring their teams of imported kiwis and spank everyone, going around at $1.20. D Jack may have one going around at $1.20 this year though, I'm aware of that! Traditionally the Breeders Plate provides a fantastic performance punting spectacle. Does it matter so much that there is only two heats? I do remember watching an interdominion heat with two horses. The final will be a full field, small track, big crowd for $40k. Seems ok by me!
The $6000 C races don't stand up here in NSW because there is the stigma of 2yos racing that you seem to also buy into. Victoria seem to always be able to get a few C clad races up and going every year. This shortening the season won't fix that problem. All it does is minimize the time frame people have to win their races. A horse can have a small setback and the be forced to miss three months and then bang, 2yo season is done. Foal numbers are the biggest issue. Field sizes across NSW, have been a serious issue over the past few months. Hobby Breeders aren't propping up the foal numbers the way they have in the past, say twenty years ago, and the studs can't turn a profit selling the ones they breed every year.
Whether you and I agree with the stigma doesn't matter. What matters is the stigma is there and that is why the Leeton Breeders Plate staged in December doesn't attract many runners.
As I said in my first post, foal numbers is an issue for the sport in general, but for the Leeton Breeders Plate specifically the issue is the time of year.

[Gtrain]

The question I always ask is why is it that Harness people think that racing 2yos at this time of year wrecks them, at the same time we see the magic millions carnival for the Thoroughbreds.

[trish]

http://sunsetacresspokane.weebly.com/uploads/3/7/3/9/37391535/5829291_orig.jpg (http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi73LH-oIzRAhXMu7wKHQUvAgAQjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fsunsetacresspokane.weebly.com%2Fs unsets-blog%2Fequine-growth-plate-fusion-chart&psig=AFQjCNGC6U8BnTQIiPSXanszGoOz2_WXHA&ust=1482649243196912)Look at this & make up your own mind.

[trish]

I think if there wasn't so much money in 2yo racing there may be a lot more horse around. I would love to see how many good 2yo's become FFA class horses or how many top FFA's were good 2yo's. Yes everybody will find some BUT just how many. Saying that
if you can make $100k in your 2yo season why slog your guts out for years trying to make the same as a 4yo.

[Gtrain]

That's the common error people make in their reasoning. Don't look at how many of the best 2yos make great free for allers. That's like saying the best kid in under 13s rugby league will win the Dally M. Look at how many great free for allers races at two. Blackie and Quinny are two that spring to mind pretty quickly. Didn't cause them too many issues.
I also look at another horse, Composed, who won a listed race as a 2yo. Hasn't slowed him up much.

Expecting age bracketed success to transfer to open age is ridiculously tough. It's not because the horse has been cooked or pushed too hard most of the time. It's because the horse was a good juvenile. Developed early and cashed in.