APG SALES Sydney aand Melbourne

[Fan of Jate]

Just seeking peoples thoughts on the upcoming APG sales Sydney and Melbourne in February.
I have collated the number of fillies and colts by Sire for each sale and it makes interesting reading. I have left out those with minimum numbers such as Artistic Fella who has one at each sale


Sydney-Total 200 for sale




Art Major-28
Sportswriter-26
Rock N Roll Heaven-25
Rock n Roll Dance -18
Bettors delight-13
Roll with Joe-10
Mach 3-9
Pet Rock- 9
Western terror-6
American Ideal-5
Somebeachsomewhere-4
CUF-3


Melbourne-Total 200 for sale


Art Major-43
Sportswriter-10
Rock N Roll Heaven-14
Rock n Roll Dance -13
Bettors delight-22
Roll with Joe-3
Mach 3-23
Pet Rock- 9
Western terror-10
American Ideal-9
Somebeachsomewhere-3
CUF-3




Interesting to note how each state has a liking for certain stallions. Somebeachsomewhere and American ideal surprised me with low numbers. Mach 3 is unloved in NSW. There is a heavy slant towards Alabar in NSW

[Gtrain]

Be aware though that Heaven, Sportswriter and RWJ didn't stand at Alabar until this year.

[Fan of Jate]

Correct Grant- Peppertree farm was their home

[trish]

And that could explain why such a huge drop in services in NSW from 1624 in 14-15 , down to 913 in 15-16. That's around 44% drop in services in NSW. Regardless of those stallions leaving NSW . I wonder whether they account for all of those lost services.

[Fan of Jate]

That is a massive figure and I am sure the information would be collated somewhere.

[Adaptor]

That is a massive figure and I am sure the information would be collated somewhere.

Ive been looking for tables that show stallion, number of mares served, number of live foals...for the stud season 2014-5.
Ive looked in the HRA website, but can't find this. I know you can check sire by sire, but I want a table.
Help please.

[trish]

http://www.harness.org.au/hra/annual/public/stats.htm




Hi Noel, I was just looking at these stats for services in NSW. Might help you , might not. Cheers Trish

[Messenger]

Ive been looking for tables that show stallion, number of mares served, number of live foals...for the stud season 2014-5.
Ive looked in the HRA website, but can't find this. I know you can check sire by sire, but I want a table.
Help please.

I think stallion by stallion on Harnessweb is the best you are going to do Noel - a lovely way to spend an afternoon :D

[Adaptor]

I think stallion by stallion on Harnessweb is the best you are going to do Noel - a lovely way to spend an afternoon :D

I think that might be tonight's task, between the races on Sky from the Shep Cup. Hope none of them end up on Sky 2 ! And then continue while the Hamilton Cup meet is on.

Just shows the amount of research that John Peck put into the tables he published in the much mossed Harness Racing International magazine.

[arlington]

Discounts

http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=32328

One would imagine these will be offered to non sales as well?
Can you actually get a $500 discount??
Irrespective, seems "generous" considering this http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=29080

[Toohard]

Discounts

http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=32328

One would imagine these will be offered to non sales as well?
Can you actually get a $500 discount??
Irrespective, seems "generous" considering this http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=29080

First payment normally when you horse has turned 2 for Breeders Crown? Maybe offering discount because paying up a year earlier. Raise more money for series as a year later maybe wouldnt pay up if yearling not up to it then?

[KTQ]

it's risky paying up for a race when a horse is a baby. I guess they offer discounts for the risk that owners have to take

[Greg Hando]

Discounts

http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=32328

One would imagine these will be offered to non sales as well?
Can you actually get a $500 discount??
Irrespective, seems "generous" considering this http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=29080
Pretty sure non sales don't get discount only if put through the sales ring on the day

[arlington]

By non sales I wasn't referring to non sales APG race entrants but any breeder, commercial or non commercial. Primarily I was wondering why HRV wouldn't want to make all breeders feel included, considering we want as many people breeding as we can. Whether it captures additional real revenue, yep flip the coin...making the APG sustaining payment on fall of hammer might remain enough.

Aside to this, will this be offered at the Autumn Sale or does this offer have something to do with the race series for Autumn APG Sale yearlings impinging on Vicbred and Breeders Crown number strength, hence revenue?

The other question Can you actually get a $500 discount?? was for the maths logic members. Isn't it either a $344 or $173 discount, not "over $500" ($517)? May sound pedantic but there could be people looking for their $500 discount from HRV.

I was wondering about the funding of the Breeders Crown prize money increase. The strategies that need to be implemented to fund it. My first thoughts were has anyone complained BC prize money is insufficient? HRV stepping in on APG sale day with discount offers for their race series, nought to do with APG, seems selective in a way, exclusive. It just doesn't sit well even though the uptake may be minimal. No doubt the yearling vendors won't complain ;)

[arlington]

Another thing about the APG - is too much black type not a good thing?
This may be a post for an existing thread but sales relevant. No brainer that commercial breeders want black type. Looking at the APG Series. Gold final is Gp1, consolations Gp3, emphasising multiple consolations, in a number of states and the Autumn Sales race Gp2. Is the way Group status is granted, seemingly purely on meeting prize money level criteria, devaluing Black Type status? This does go for other races as well and for example the Vic Home Grown Series. Initially introduced, and state government funded, to offer prize money opportunities for youngsters that wouldn't reach such lofty heights as the BC or VB Super Series. Because it's a $50,000 race it has to be black type?? So what happens...some owners feel they shouldn't be excluded from a black type opportunity hence the maximum prize money won criteria is increased. In the first year the scheduling of the races was due to state government funding in the fiscal year (June 30). Without that constraint in following years one wonders why different dates haven't been chosen. In this case is black type not a good thing? Does this race series have to carry black type, has it's aim moved away from what was intended? Where once we were given an opportunity to cater for the...less elite, well, it's gone. And so may have some smaller breeders.

[KTQ]

I thought a horse could be black type if it's gone faster than 1.58. Pretty easy to be black type in this day and age. most of ours go faster than 1.57 every start

[teecee]

Black Type is winning a group / listed race.

[Messenger]

The online catalogue is very impressive.

http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sales/2017-online-guides/melbourne-online-guide/

Click on the tutorial 3 pages in to see what it can do

The coloured cross pedigrees (once you click on them) and the search facility are pluses

[Messenger]

One little thing. I find it better to view the online cat on Internet explorer
for the ability to change the zoom level easily in the bottom right corner
You see there is a little problem with enlarging to make reading easier - you cannot scroll to see the cutoff bottom of the page for things like Family number
so being able to change zoom easily is handy

WRONG - have discovered that on Explorer half the time it does not show the whole page eg The Family number, will try tablet now but otherwise stick with Chrome

[Messenger]

On my tablet it was worse - cutting off even more of the bottom of the page regardless of the zoom, with no way that I can see of scrolling
I have contacted them because it is very good but Chrome on my desk top seems to be the way to go - pity my eyes do not find 100% comfortable but a little zooming in and out never hurt anybody

[Messenger]

I went through just the fillies in the catalogue today - it strikes me as being a strong catalogue.
I wrote down about 20 lots based on the dam and damline and then the sire with most being in the second half of the program
I left out plenty that could be the APG champ but I was tough on things like mum already having had 3 or 4 to race without producing anything special
A couple of real interesting ones were the inbreds
- the much publicised Lot 128 and Lot 157

Maybe I will have to keep an eye out to see if any of my favs get syndicated

http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sales/2017-online-guides/melbourne-online-guide/

[Greg Hando]

Black Type is winning a group / listed race.

Also a winning MR of 2.00 or better also the dam of a Group winner

[Greg Hando]

When reading the catalogue it might say dam of 6 winners but they only list the black type winners.I like to know the lot as there may be one that you recognise and know why it might not have raced on to try and get its black type.

[Njcstables]

I went through just the fillies in the catalogue today - it strikes me as being a strong catalogue.
I wrote down about 20 lots based on the dam and damline and then the sire with most being in the second half of the program
I left out plenty that could be the APG champ but I was tough on things like mum already having had 3 or 4 to race without producing anything special
A couple of real interesting ones were the inbreds
- the much publicised Lot 128 and Lot 157

Maybe I will have to keep an eye out to see if any of my favs get syndicated

http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sales/2017-online-guides/melbourne-online-guide/

Come on Kev let the moths out of your wallet. I'll help you spend your retirement funds if you like!

[Messenger]

Come on Kev let the moths out of your wallet. I'll help you spend your retirement funds if you like!

Mine are the mean sort

[Messenger]

I cannot see what time it begins - live streaming begins 8am so I am guessing that is it

[eliteblood]

I cannot see what time it begins - live streaming begins 8am so I am guessing that is it

Kevin, the actual sale begins at 11.00

[Messenger]

Thanks Trevor, I used to attend years ago and I did not remember being up that early

[Messenger]

I think the site is proving popular - took a while to get on

Unless I am blinder than I think - Massive fault in Catalogue - No foaling date

[eliteblood]

foaling date is on 2nd line from top

[Messenger]

foaling date is on 2nd line from top

Is that in the book or the online cat Trevor?

[Messenger]

First time I have not ordered a book - big mistake

[Messenger]

Was lot 62 a filly? The online cat said a colt

[Fan of Jate]

Foaling date is second line from the top in the catalogue. 62 is a filly from A/Ideal in the catalogue.

[Messenger]

Thanks Pat - the Online Catalogue does not have foaling dates (The consignor is a separate tab)

[Messenger]

Gee it is a long gig - turning the sound off for a while is the way to survive :o

[Messenger]

I cannot take a trick - I turn the sound off for a tick and find the streaming vision is showing Lot 111 as selling twice - once for $26k and once for $31k ?!

[Messenger]

Well the top lot was Waikiki's half bro for $200k while the top filly was the first foal of 2012 2yo Breeders Crown winner Glenferrie Shuffle which sold for $85k.
My count has 33 lots going for $50k or more with 6 of them equalling or bettering $100k
My figures (not official) had 43 lots passed in (on the hammer) so 144 of 187 lots sold or a 77% clearance rate
28 fillies were passed in compared to 15 colts and with some reasonable offers for some of these fillies it would seem that breeders are prepared to keep their fillies if the price is not what they expect

[Messenger]

Did I miss something about Lot 12 - a full bro to Major Secret and a half to Beauty Secret
I expected this lot to go for more than $14k
(I have never read my wonderful book on confirmation)

[Hermione]

Will you confirm that? :) :) :)

[alphastud]

Did I miss something about Lot 12 - a full bro to Major Secret and a half to Beauty Secret
I expected this lot to go for more than $14k
(I have never read my wonderful book on confirmation)

Agree that something doesn't sound right. Lot 39 Art Major x The Good Times sold for $50,000 to Emma Stewart. More indicative of the value of Larrakeyah Lady's family

[Messenger]

Will you confirm that? :) :) :)

I cannot read ! :p

[Messenger]

Reviewing the results
Showing 145/186 sold so that is 78%

[teecee]

http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sales/sales-results/2017-sales-results/melbourne/

[Messenger]

http://www.harnesslink.com/Australia/APG-Melbourne-Sales-average-increased

The sales averages increased.
There is one mistake in the article - the top filly Lot 117 went for $85k

[Messenger]

We all know it is not a given that your horse will make it to the track much less win a race but I was wondering about the APG success rate
so with their excellent site, I was able to do a little research - yep Kev with too much time on his hands again
I chose last season 2015-16 and honed in on the 3yo's as most would hope that their purchase would have won before turning 4yo

I took out the Sales withdrawals and on my count there were 438 lots that went through the sales at Melbourne (2 sales), Brisbane and Sydney
128 of them won at least one race as a 3yo which is very close to 30%

So if you were wondering - there you go ;)

There of course could be a few lots that won as 2yo's that did not race/win as 3yo's but I have not got so much time that I want to skim through another 20 pages for the previous season

ps The Sydney catalogue is now available online

http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sales/2017-online-guides/sydney-online-guide/

[Fan of Jate]

Does anyone think the Sydney Catalogue is stronger than the Melbourne sale?


A lot less Art Major and Bettors delight representation that's for sure although a lot larger representation of Mach 3.

[Messenger]

I have to get back to looking at it and have only covered a quarter of it - being the fillies in the first 100 lots
BUT I thought they seemed much weaker than the Melb offering (25% of catalogue is probably too early to judge)

[Messenger]

I must have been in a daze when I was looking at the first half of the fillies Pat. Having looked at the second half, I went back and looked at the first half again and realized they were much stronger than I thought

[Messenger]

http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=32701

$245k

The top filly went for $90k

http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sales/sales-results/2017-sales-results/sydney/

(I'm in Tassie for 6wks - keep posting everyone)

[arlington]

Flicking through the Sydney results, couldn't help but notice Faye Wisbey picking up a couple of fillies. I wonder if Faye can still remember the day the auctioneer's hammer fell on Koala King.

[trish]

Sensational APG Sydney Sale results

26 February 2017 | APG Media


http://www.harness.org.au/news/images/main/11919.jpg APG Sydney Lot 259 Photo by STUART McCORMICK


JUST like last night’s Miracle Mile meeting, the competition was fast and furious during today’s Ladbrokes Australian Pacing Gold Sale.
With a terrific overall clearance rate, the colts were in particular high demand, with three breaking six figures and several falling just short.
The highest priced lot of the day was 368 – a colt by Bettors Delight from Lady Euthenia - which attracted a national record bid of $245,000.
A break down reveals the colts sold for an average of $28,728, an increase from last year’s $27,233, while the fillies attracted an average of $18,611 this time around.
Pleased with the figures, APG’s General Manager David Boydell stated the bids reflected the quality of the stock on offer throughout the afternoon.
“This year’s sale had so many outstanding types go through the ring, which led to some spirited bidding,” Boydell said. “To have the average for both colts and fillies increase from last year is a very pleasing result for all involved.”
As mentioned, the top colt was a record purchase for Tasmanian owner Mick Maxfield, while the leading filly was Lot 259 secured by Justin Baker for $90,000.
By boom stallion Somebeachsomewhere, the flashy maiden is from Very Chic, which comes from a family littered with winners.






The top seller certainly boosts the average up. can anyone tell me if the 26% of horses that were passed in are taken into account ???

[Fan of Jate]

Good post trish. I have queried the accuracy of this article with HRA who wanted nothing to do with it and handballed it over to David Boydell who claimed he had nothing to do with the article as well (go figure) but supplied me with information which should be published and other data including the passed in lots you have mentioned. Fillies did not increase in sales average as mentioned in the article they went down by 18% and there are real worrying signs for the "2nd tier stallions" I think we may have discussed this in another set of Posts.

[Fan of Jate]

"Odds and ends" Post 991- this will have ramifications for those plebs and breeders who cannot afford Bettors delight, Art Major -not sure who will take Mach 3's place. Not only are the breeders in trouble with "2nd tier stallions" but the fillies just don't sell. Some stallions are going to go by the wayside or seriously drop their price and that means under $4000.... I am talking about Artistic fella, Sportswriter, Western Terror maybe and some of the new ones are under the pump already and they include Auckland reactor, Mr Feelgood, Roll with Joe and probably a couple more. Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt. Some of these stallions need to produce a big winner right now. I wont be going to any of them if they cant do that. It is just not worth it.

(Post moved from Odds and Ends)

[Hermione]

Many moons ago as a newly wed I was having an amicable discussion with my mother-in-law about an article, the content of which has long been forgotten in the mists of time. We had opposing opinions and she just said to me "Paper never refused ink yet". I have never forgotten the advice and have mentally referred to it most of my life, perhaps the above needs the same treatment?

[trish]

Good post trish. I have queried the accuracy of this article with HRA who wanted nothing to do with it and handballed it over to David Boydell who claimed he had nothing to do with the article as well (go figure) but supplied me with information which should be published and other data including the passed in lots you have mentioned. Fillies did not increase in sales average as mentioned in the article they went down by 18% and there are real worrying signs for the "2nd tier stallions" I think we may have discussed this in another set of Posts.










Hi Pat. I think I said "what happens to the folk who can not afford the big sires". I wonder if they will breed again after Sundays sale???

[eliteblood]

Hi Pat. I think I said "what happens to the folk who can not afford the big sires". I wonder if they will breed again after Sundays sale???

I'm sure there will be a lot of breeders questioning their future involvement Trish.
Once again, if you didn't have a yearling by the handful of stallions that the buyers like, (primarily Bettors Delight, Art Major & Mach Three), then it was a struggle to make any money. Just having a quick study of the results, I would suggest 75% of the yearlings left their owners in the red.
Perhaps it will level out a bit with M3 gone, BD reducing his number of mares and AM getting on in years BUT I don't think so. If you are going to breed to sell, it will remain imperative that you are on the money with your stallion choices.

[Fan of Jate]

It appears as if there was an error made by the author of the HRA article-David Boydell (APG) has confirmed this to his credit. I think is agreed upon that there was great attendance at the Sydney sales but this did not help those who bred to the lesser known stallions or those that bred fillies. I am quite sure that experts can come up with a solution and reveal it in this forum.

[alphastud]

Hi Pat and everyone,

Yearling sales prices have been declining against their service fee price for many years.

What you may also want to look at is service fee versus the prizemoney returned by many of these stallions.

David James from Empire Stallions provided his insight on how to resolve some of these issues on APG TV.

Currently, significant prizemoney can only be won by few racehorses. I'm not sure if that's right or wrong however it affects the opportunties for the new and middle market stallions.

Yearlings by World Class and Proven stallions such as Western Terror, McArdle and Badlands Hanover are struggling to compete at APG sales due to factors including;
x - their few foal numbers (which reduce the chances of their progeny winning group races)
x - the few high quality mares served (which reduce their chances of producing group winning racehorses)
x - the level of trainer that train their progeny (therefore reducing their chances of winning group races)

Someone mentioned that some of these stallions need to stand up.
x - McArdle is the sire of Tact Tate who recently won the Truer Memorial (Group2) and the Bohemia Crystal Free For All (Group1) beating Purdons Have Faith In Me NZ.
x - Badlands Hanover is the sire of Beaudiene Boaz (who hit the $1M mark as a 5YO), Washakie and others.
x - Western Terror is the sire of Terror To Love and many other +100k winners across Aus and NZ.

Even if these undervalued stallions compete and win on an average or % basis against Bettors, Somebeach, Art Major etc., I don't see buyers going for them at the APG sales.

These and other factors will increase the demand for top tier stallions. Vendors could win with new and high profile stallions such as Captaintreacherous however who knows? - buyers are fickle. A Rocknroll Dance and Pet Rock were outstanding racehorses, are well bred and had some outstanding types across sales however, their yearlings didn't sell anywhere near as well as what they have in North America.

It is likely that the majority of vendors who are not selling top tier stallion progeny are losing money .

In addition to service fees, take into account the following costs for vendors;
x - Futurities (incl. Bathurst, Breeders, APG, Vicbred, Challenge etc.)
x - Agistment
x - Reproduction
x - Yearling preparation
x - Vet
x - APG commission
x - APG entry
x - APG advertising

We offered services to McArdle and Badlands Hanover at $2,500 and better for early payment and sold out. Most of these breeders were breeding to keep their progeny however it should be a little easier for them to return a profit against their higher priced and unproven competition if they were to sell.

John Dumensy is trying and helped us offer McArdle and Badlands Hanover from NSW. We wouldn't have offered these stallions without their support.

The decline in yearling sales prices versus service fees is a symptom of larger industry problems.

I think that improving these larger problems will subsequently help vendors on many levels.

What do you think?

[Messenger]

For decades Ray Chaplin has been advocating the need to fix the product we offer the public if we hope to attract big spending clients and links to his submissions can be elsewhere on the forum

A link for David James ideas can be found here (his interview prompted the thread)

http://www.harnessracingforum.com/showthread.php?10130-Video-interviews-worth-watching

[trish]

This is from Nixonbloodstock's twitter. It is stated that the median price in Melb was $26 & Sydney $15.
Each of their breeders did money...Where are the buyers & where will future race fields come from? This is our sport's most pressing issue!



The headline price in Sydney today was spectacular, but it should be noted that half of all yearlings sold for $15k or less

[Fan of Jate]

A good post Richard and you have probably nailed it with most of your information. Glad to see you had good success with McArdle, one of the problems a part time breeder like me has is selecting the right stallion and sometimes I cant do that.I think others with good mares are in the same boat and have to settle for a stallion which is not quite right. Eliteblood nailed this as well. "correct stallion choice" But the other problems wont go away just now. No-one is going to keep losing money in breeding, the losers eventually fade away.


Although David James and co spoke very well, are top horse people and have forgotten more than I will ever know, they have a vested interest and their job is to sell their stallions to the Australian harness racing public and that was the purpose of the videos, very informative but they rarely mentioned a stallion apart from their own and I found one the speakers to be evasive, a good job was done by Dean Baring.


Trish's point 3 post# 61 is spot on. The sale was spectacular, I accused APG of pumping up the sales via these articles and this was denied. It is not easy to find this information collectively about the sales, main reason is it will turn buyers off, no one wants negativity but the cold hard facts have to be put out there.


Who is going to Sportswriter again at his price? He was absolutely smashed in the sales-there are few more on thin ice as previously stated.
APG will be in WA this week for the first time and there will be about 110 yearlings for sale, there is a huge spread of sires and guess who has the most yearlings in the sale....yep...Sportswriter, there are only a few Art majors,M3's and BD's so we may get a more balanced price range of the sires on offer. The cheaper stallions (Rich and spoilt, Parsons Den etc) means the breeders don't lose as much if the sales don't go well.It will be interesting to see the averages .The good Westbred/Double Westbred program does impact on sales price. There wont be any $200,000 sales that's for sure.

[teecee]

, there are only a few Art majors,M3's and BD's so we may get a more balanced price range of the sires on offer. The cheaper stallions (Rich and spoilt, Parsons Den etc) means the breeders don't lose as much if the sales don't go well.It will be interesting to see the averages .The good Westbred/Double Westbred program does impact on sales price. There wont be any $200,000 sales that's for sure.[/QUOTE]

Market forces in the form of buyer preference may well see a $200k sale and still nothing for the lesser lights such is the dominance in the marketplace of Bettors and to a lesser extent Art Major and Mach3. Fewer numbers of what the buyers primarily or in many cases solely want is often what sets the price of a product. A vendor's market at Perth? I suspect only in the same vein as Melbourne, Auckland, Christchurch and Sydney. With one deceased (with no banked semen) and the other two closing in on 20yrs I wonder who is set to take over the mantle and will they be ever as dominant. I need to know now so know what the buyers are raving for in 3 years..!!!

[Messenger]

Pat, obviously David James was going to spruik his stallions but Dean's lengthy interview included general Industry questions to which David gave quite comprehensive answers

[trish]

I wonder who is set to take over the mantle and will they be ever as dominant. I need to know now so know what the buyers are raving for in 3 years..!!!




When you find out Trevor can you tell me!!! hahaha


But sadly this is no laughing matter. Hope the breeding folk in WA do well, we will see.

[eliteblood]

I wonder who is set to take over the mantle and will they be ever as dominant. I need to know now so know what the buyers are raving for in 3 years..!!!




When you find out Trevor can you tell me!!! hahaha


But sadly this is no laughing matter. Hope the breeding folk in WA do well, we will see.

You will be the first to know Trish :-)

[Messenger]

I wonder who is set to take over the mantle and will they be ever as dominant. I need to know now so know what the buyers are raving for in 3 years..!!!




When you find out Trevor can you tell me!!! hahaha


But sadly this is no laughing matter. Hope the breeding folk in WA do well, we will see.

Trish, it was Tony that asked.
If he And Trevor can come up with the answer - we will have both sides of the Tasman covered

[trish]

Trish, it was Tony that asked.
If he And Trevor can come up with the answer - we will have both sides of the Tasman covered




Sorry....age has something to do with that!!!!


Wouldn't it be good to know what the flavor was to be.

[trish]

Hi its Mark here, as a past trainer I am absolutely certain that I would rather walk out to work one Bettors Delight than a dozen of any of the progeny of the 2nd tier stallions . As an owner I would much rather have my trainer tell me that my one Art Major is going really good than he tell me my dozen 2nd tier stallion progeny are going ok. As a breeder I would much rather put those thousands of hours into one Mach Three yearling than a dozen of the 2nd tier stallion progeny because those three sires are winners. But stupid
me went to two new sires!!! I fully intend to go & have a brain transplant because I am an idiot.

[Toohard]

Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt.

(Post moved from Odds and Ends)

1.49.5 not quick enough?

[Messenger]

Hi its Mark here, as a past trainer I am absolutely certain that I would rather walk out to work one Bettors Delight than a dozen of any of the progeny of the 2nd tier stallions . As an owner I would much rather have my trainer tell me that my one Art Major is going really good than he tell me my dozen 2nd tier stallion progeny are going ok. As a breeder I would much rather put those thousands of hours into one Mach Three yearling than a dozen of the 2nd tier stallion progeny because those three sires are winners. But stupid
me went to two new sires!!! I fully intend to go & have a brain transplant because I am an idiot.


I think you're just guilty of bargain hunting Mark, most of us cannot resist a bargain - or should I say "what we thought was great value"

[alphastud]

Thanks Pat and I understand some of your frustrations having spoken with many breeders, owners etc.

Pat - Are you only breeding to sell at an APG sale? If so, then stallions such as Western Terror and American Ideal have good sales results (so far) compared to their service fees.
Sportswriter? He had good results in the Melbourne sale however fell flat in Sydney. Was this due different mare quality? Sportswriter performed strongly as a 2YO sire in the 2016 season. Mark Purdon is probably the best in yearling selection and has acquired 2 x Sportswriters from the recent yearling sales in NZ.

Tony - The industry can change buyer preference, the impact of top stallions, the demand for other stallions and therefore market forces by changing factors including the racing program, incentives etc. I think that this was where David James was heading. Other stallions can emerge under an alternate system however won't in it's current form.

Mark - Many of us run through the same process. In 2015, we bred to a few unproven stallions and have the same concerns as you. We probably won't make that mistake again if our intention is to keep their progeny. To follow some thinking by Ray Chaplin and others, I want to stack more odds of winning in my favour at every step and we're not doing that with an unproven stallion. History shows same and I can give you countless examples. Which new or recently new stallion is going to beat the results of McArdle, Western Terror, Badlands etc. Beyond their immediate progeny, these stallions have also left mares with +$1Million dollar progeny.

As to your 1 Bettors strategy then I don't agree. Sure, if it's the right cross and Bettors has proven results in that mare's family then yes. If it's not or there isn't good history, then a service to Bettors is too expensive for that kind of risk for me. They call the Bettors x In The Pocket a "golden cross". One data program shows this cross running at 13% of +$100,000 winners. Well did you know that the Badlands Hanover x In The Pocket cross is running at 17% of +$100,000 winners? If all things were equal, then you could have had 7 x Badlands Hanover services for 1 x Bettors in 2016. I'd definitely gamble on the 7 x In The Pocket x Badlands ahead of your 1 x Bettors based on those stats. I can give you other examples too.

Thanks

[Fan of Jate]

"Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt".

(Post moved from Odds and Ends)
1.49.5 not quick enough?




What , you jagged one at last??

[Toohard]

"Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt".

(Post moved from Odds and Ends)
1.49.5 not quick enough?




What , you jagged one at last??


Heaven Rocks goes ok too. Surely have to give them more than 2 years before can make that judgement?

[Fan of Jate]

It's been more than 2 years and the USA record is not that good either hence why I said that. Dollars won is what the horse is measured by and it has not happened. Just quoting a fast time at the fastest track in the world means not much in my opinion. It cost $8000 for this stallion which was part of my post, too expensive. I have used this stallion as well so not completely against the horse.

[eliteblood]

Sorry I can't format this to make it easier to read, but below is some data I have collated from the Melbourne and Sydney sales results. It only includes sold lots, passed in lots have had to be ignored because there is no way of knowing what they may have made. I know that there are also a lot of generalisations in the comments below, but I think they are valid despite that.
I have listed for most of the prominent stallions, the number of yearlings sold, the average price, the number sold for > $30k, the highest priced yearling.

Sire No Sold Ave >$30K % > $30k Highest

A Rocknroll Dance USA 17 $15,417 1 6% $38,000
American Ideal USA 11 $46,182 7 64% $115,000
Art Major USA 58 $38,534 31 53% $200,000
Betterthancheddar USA 8 $23,063 2 25% $32,500
Bettors Delight USA 29 $61,828 23 79% $245,000
Courage Under Fire NZ 4 $15,250 0 0% $21,000
Four Starzzz Shark CA 3 $12,333 0 0% $16,000
Mach Three CA 22 $37,273 13 59% $130,000
Pet Rock USA 14 $18,000 2 14% $40,000
Rock N Roll Heaven USA 28 $21,393 6 21% $85,000
Roll With Joe USA 12 $14,667 1 8% $43,000
Somebeachsomewhere USA 4 $66,875 3 75% $97,500
Sportswriter USA 26 $15,385 3 12% $45,000
Well Said (US) 6 $38,833 3 50% $105,000
Western Terror USA 13 $18,769 1 8% $31,000


As someone who breeds to sell, I have selected $30,000 as a happy result. The exercise has been worthwhile and a reasonable profit has been achieved. This is very much generalised because service fee obviously changes the profit result in every case as does each breeders individual rearing and preparation cost situation.

It highlights again to me what we all know, it is currently all about Bettors Delight, Art Major, American Ideal, Mach Three and SBSW.
It doesn't matter that Courage Under Fire, Four Starzzz Shark, Western Terror, Sportswriter, etc. etc. (include Badlands Hanover and McArdle) have had levels of success in the past or what your individual opinions are of these stallions because, if you are breeding to sell, the buyers are the sole judges in this exercise.

I agree with Mark's line of argument. I would much rather breed one Bettor's Delight and know that 79% of his yearlings can be sold at a profit at an average price of $61,828 than breed seven by Badlands Hanover or McArdle (or CUF, FSS, Sportswriter, ......................) that would almost surely produce a bottom line loss. Sorry Richard.
The playing field might level out a bit when Bettors Delight is gone but at the moment it is extremely difficult for both new stallions (like A Rock N Roll Dance and Pet Rock) and those 2nd tier stallions that have been successful but are no longer in the spotlight.

I was especially surprised that A Rock N Roll Dance was not better supported. A good racehorse, very well bred, yet only 1 yearling sold for more than $24,000.

Maybe we need to bring back limited stallion books to try and restore some order ????

[alphastud]

Hi Trevor, thanks for your reply.

I understood Mark as breeding to race his own progeny and not sell at an APG type sale. And so, my argument was based on the assumption of him breeding to race as opposed to Pat who was breeding to sell at an APG sale.

If your breeding to keep the progeny and race then I'm assuming that your goal is to increase your chances of breeding an elite racehorse for less cost.

So, I based my argument on 2 assumptions.
1. Mark breeding to race the progeny (in my example, the progeny of an In The Pocket mare (ITP))
2. That you want to breed an elite racehorse (+$100,000 winner) for the least cost possible.

Since the data shows that you have a much stronger chance of an elite Badlands racehorse (out of an ITP mare) (17% vs 13% +100,000 winnners) against Bettors, then the I'd breed to Badlands. Take into account the service fee prices; Badlands was advertised at $2,500 versus Bettors at $17,600.

Let me know what you think based on the two assumptions that I've worked from.

Yes, I mostly agree with you in regards to breeding to sell at an APG sale and have stated as such previously.

[trish]

Mark starting breeding to sell a few years ago Richard. His 1st one was an American Ideal/Vanston Lady filly that sold at the APG last year. He breed 4 last year but sadly 2 died, not a good year. The other 2 colts will go to APG next year, or he will lease them out because of the sale results in Sydney. He has one mare booked to Bettors this year. The other mares are being retired or sold.

[trish]

Sorry I can't format this to make it easier to read, but below is some data I have collated from the Melbourne and Sydney sales results. It only includes sold lots, passed in lots have had to be ignored because there is no way of knowing what they may have made. I know that there are also a lot of generalisations in the comments below, but I think they are valid despite that.
I have listed for most of the prominent stallions, the number of yearlings sold, the average price, the number sold for > $30k, the highest priced yearling.

Sire No Sold Ave >$30K % > $30k Highest

A Rocknroll Dance USA 17 $15,417 1 6% $38,000
American Ideal USA 11 $46,182 7 64% $115,000
Art Major USA 58 $38,534 31 53% $200,000
Betterthancheddar USA 8 $23,063 2 25% $32,500
Bettors Delight USA 29 $61,828 23 79% $245,000
Courage Under Fire NZ 4 $15,250 0 0% $21,000
Four Starzzz Shark CA 3 $12,333 0 0% $16,000
Mach Three CA 22 $37,273 13 59% $130,000
Pet Rock USA 14 $18,000 2 14% $40,000
Rock N Roll Heaven USA 28 $21,393 6 21% $85,000
Roll With Joe USA 12 $14,667 1 8% $43,000
Somebeachsomewhere USA 4 $66,875 3 75% $97,500
Sportswriter USA 26 $15,385 3 12% $45,000
Well Said (US) 6 $38,833 3 50% $105,000
Western Terror USA 13 $18,769 1 8% $31,000


As someone who breeds to sell, I have selected $30,000 as a happy result. The exercise has been worthwhile and a reasonable profit has been achieved. This is very much generalised because service fee obviously changes the profit result in every case as does each breeders individual rearing and preparation cost situation.

It highlights again to me what we all know, it is currently all about Bettors Delight, Art Major, American Ideal, Mach Three and SBSW.
It doesn't matter that Courage Under Fire, Four Starzzz Shark, Western Terror, Sportswriter, etc. etc. (include Badlands Hanover and McArdle) have had levels of success in the past or what your individual opinions are of these stallions because, if you are breeding to sell, the buyers are the sole judges in this exercise.

I agree with Mark's line of argument. I would much rather breed one Bettor's Delight and know that 79% of his yearlings can be sold at a profit at an average price of $61,828 than breed seven by Badlands Hanover or McArdle (or CUF, FSS, Sportswriter, ......................) that would almost surely produce a bottom line loss. Sorry Richard.
The playing field might level out a bit when Bettors Delight is gone but at the moment it is extremely difficult for both new stallions (like A Rock N Roll Dance and Pet Rock) and those 2nd tier stallions that have been successful but are no longer in the spotlight.

I was especially surprised that A Rock N Roll Dance was not better supported. A good racehorse, very well bred, yet only 1 yearling sold for more than $24,000.


Maybe we need to bring back limited stallion books to try and restore some order ????






Great post Trevor & thanks for that summary, it tells a story. Mostly a sad one for the breeding industry with some of those stallions . I feel sorry for those who had a reserve on their yearling , that were passed in & still have to folk out 10% of the nominated reserve.
I also think $30k is a cut off point, if you sent a yearling to a preparer that cost can be huge, as are the other costs , APG entry ect you have to make that money or give up. It cost Mark over $700 just to attend the sale for those couple of days , you can not sleep in the car & look dapper like he thinks he did!!!! But honestly it costs taking into account the stallion price etc the breeder is doing it tough. Mark sold his American Ideal filly last year for $25 & he worked out that that was his break even mark.

[eliteblood]

Hi Trevor, thanks for your reply.

I understood Mark as breeding to race his own progeny and not sell at an APG type sale. And so, my argument was based on the assumption of him breeding to race as opposed to Pat who was breeding to sell at an APG sale.

If your breeding to keep the progeny and race then I'm assuming that your goal is to increase your chances of breeding an elite racehorse for less cost.

So, I based my argument on 2 assumptions.
1. Mark breeding to race the progeny (in my example, the progeny of an In The Pocket mare (ITP))
2. That you want to breed an elite racehorse (+$100,000 winner) for the least cost possible.

Since the data shows that you have a much stronger chance of an elite Badlands racehorse (out of an ITP mare) (17% vs 13% +100,000 winnners) against Bettors, then the I'd breed to Badlands. Take into account the service fee prices; Badlands was advertised at $2,500 versus Bettors at $17,600.

Let me know what you think based on the two assumptions that I've worked from.

Yes, I mostly agree with you in regards to breeding to sell at an APG sale and have stated as such previously.

Yes Richard, breeding to sell and breeding to keep are two totally different scenarios and I can't argue with the logics behind your proposition
EXCEPT THAT
Everything in my gut tells me that if I want to breed myself an elite racehorse (even if my mare is by ITP) then Bettors Delight would be my sire of first choice
Not saying you shouldn't but I personally don't place a lot of emphasis on crosses.

[Fan of Jate]

Hi Richard


I breed on a casual basis for the APG sales and also buy yearlings at the sales but I wont give up my day job based on my performance in both areas. I don't think I would breed Western Terror progeny because I don't think he has done a lot in Australia and similar for McArdle. i.e the best horses they have were bred in NZ. I put a reserve on my yearlings and the aim is to cover costs and anything over that is a bonus.


I would be looking at Art Major next time around for breeding-1. because he pulls good prices and 2-he crosses well with my mares. American Ideal would also be looked at.


Mark Purdon has clients with a lot more money than most, so he can afford to pick the best-I cant recall the last time he bought a horse for $10000 hether it be sportswriter or Art Major-but no doubt someone will scour the records and find one. If Sportswriter fails at Perth (unlikely) then I doubt he would get over 50/60 next year. I am not convinced about the quality of mares at Sydney v Melbourne argument. Melbourne mares were probably slightly better.


Most stallions are unproven in Australia so you rely on their USA record. Some experienced breeders are surprised at the low prices achieved for some of the new Stallions who were champions in the USA. If we all went for BD, AM etc where would that leave us? I like to take a risk with a stallion new to the shores as no doubt others do but at some stage you have to get the money up for the right stallion for your mare and if it is Art Major @$13000 then so be it.


This is why I like the doublewestbred system in WA, a Bettors delight/Art Major horse cannot win the bonuses so a breeder/owner can make money back that way if the horse wins or places. It also cuts out people buying good 2 yo and 3yo horses from NZ and coming over trying to win easy money. This is where the 2nd tier stallions who reside in WA come into their own. It is a proven system and well supported, it would not do Mark (post 71) any good though. The Westbred system is also very good. I believe these systems are being closely looked at by those who make major decisions in the industry to help solve some of the problems we have.


And yes Kev, I did listen closely to David James and he was probably alluding to similar type programs/incentives as I have stated in my previous paragraph although I hope the administrators go a bit further than what David James suggested. He also promoted Western Terror no end, so maybe I am wrong on that stallion.

[Messenger]

I can understand why the doublewestbred would have plenty of fans over there Pat

[Fan of Jate]

It is a very good initiative Kev, I am not sure that there is an equivalent anywhere else, maybe one of our members can enlighten us. WASBA have issued a document in readiness for the sales which describes the process.

[Gtrain]

http://www.harnessracing.co.nz/single-post/2017/03/03/Individual-Mares-Served-increases-from-2016-figure

Some interesting stallion numbers here. Namely Sportswriter, Sir Lincoln and Sweet Lou. To think Sportswriter served more than Sweet Lou and Art Major surprises me.

[alphastud]

Thanks Trish and Mark and that's unfortunate news re your 2 deceased foals. When you include these loses then it's even more difficult to turn a profit. Hoping that your Bettors foal helps you regain some loses.

As we know, some people are making good money from APG sales. I know someone who purchased a Cullen mare in foal to Bettors for $20k and just sold the colt for over $90k.


Mark starting breeding to sell a few years ago Richard. His 1st one was an American Ideal/Vanston Lady filly that sold at the APG last year. He breed 4 last year but sadly 2 died, not a good year. The other 2 colts will go to APG next year, or he will lease them out because of the sale results in Sydney. He has one mare booked to Bettors this year. The other mares are being retired or sold.

[teecee]

Heaven Rocks goes ok too. Surely have to give them more than 2 years before can make that judgement?

Smashed a good field at Auckland tonight when he finally got the manners sorted to rate 1:53.0 over 1700 metres. A star in the All Stars team.

[alphastud]

Yes Richard, breeding to sell and breeding to keep are two totally different scenarios and I can't argue with the logics behind your proposition
EXCEPT THAT
Everything in my gut tells me that if I want to breed myself an elite racehorse (even if my mare is by ITP) then Bettors Delight would be my sire of first choice
Not saying you shouldn't but I personally don't place a lot of emphasis on crosses.

Thanks Trevor. You've bred some outstanding racehorses and so I appreciate your view. So then we'd definitely like to know more about your thinking on breeding sometime.

I think that breeding is an art and science and so feel more confident when I see more data supporting my view.

[Fan of Jate]

He certainly did Teecee, I wonder what happened at his previous 2 starts?

[alphastud]

Thanks Pat and I agree with you re Art Major, Bettors etc. They are the stallions to breed to if you're selling at the APG sales. They're returning money for their breeders. I've put my top mare to Art Major which would make the progeny a full bro or sis to a +100k winner and a $0 winner.

However, if you're breeding to race then I'd challenge your thinking on stallions like Western Terror and McArdle. The following discussion is for considering a stallion for if you were to breed to race only. - not with the aim to sell at the APG sales .
Western Terror - Did you know that he missed a few seasons (5?) of breeding in Australia? He's only bred around 300 horses of racing age in Australia. And so he hasn't had a chance to compete with Bettors, Art Major etc. as he hasn't served anywhere near the number of mares as those stallions.

Here's my questions to you and anyone else?

What numbers, milestones or achievements or anything else would you like Western Terror to achieve for you to consider him in front of the top tier stallions incl. Bettors, Art Major and Somebeach?

Mark Purdon - no, he's not buying $10k horses however he's purchased at around the $30k mark. Although his clients may have deep pockets, Mark's not buying the most expensive yearlings and they aren't always by the top tier stallions.
He purchased Big Lucy (Badlands Hanover) for under $30k a few years back. Mark's definition of "best" yearling is different and why his not paying top dollar. A friend suggested an interesting strategy for buyers with more money than brains... Don't bother with the Sales Cataloge or asking for expert opinion. Jut sit behind Mark and outbid him.

Thanks for all of your insights and opinions Pat. I like the sound of some aspects of the WA system. I heard that it was working well with the PBD also however before it was unfortunately scrapped.

[arlington]

...Maybe we need to bring back limited stallion books to try and restore some order ????

'smiles'

[Fan of Jate]

Richard,


No doubt they are good stallions but I could not see them getting anywhere near the top 2/3 because BD, AM etc are in the legend status and they get full books. McArdle and WT do pretty good but not compared to the others. I am aware that WT missed 5 seasons-Can he get that back? Their success is also based around NZ mares as well this makes a huge difference


How do Western Terror and McArdle go with 2/3 year olds in Australia? How do they rate with the newer stallions and the older ones? we know their older horses are good. I am sure they are not in the top twenty this season and last season so that really curtails their chances of getting into the upper echelon.


Breeding to race depends on cost, mare and stallion location and past performance- so those things have to be weighed up before choosing the stallion. Both of those stallions have produced about 5 good winners from mares I have in Safely Kept/Armbro operative and Presidential Ball so therefore I would be hoping for a fluke.


cheers

[eliteblood]

Richard,

Western Terror's results both in the USA and down under are very good, he has a great pedigree and I think he is a quality stallion. Nobody should be scared of breeding to him, especially if you are breeding to race. Had he kept shuttling every year there is no reason to believe that he could not have built a reputation alongside Bettors Delight, Art Major and Mach Three.
I would think twice about sending a small mare to him.

[Messenger]

Cardon Merger won the St Arnaud Cup today at 45/1 (with Greg Sugars in the cart).
His prizemoney is creeping up to $100k. He is a 7yo entire by Wally Walton - maybe he could ressurect the Big Towner sire line ☺
Actually I hope the owners do put him to a couple of mares - you never know your luck
There is nothing wrong with the bottom half of his pedigree and his 4th dam Affleux was a VG racehorse and a favourite from Showgrounds days
Go the homebreds!

[Fan of Jate]

Have to admit I have never heard of this horse before now Kev, lets hope he can get to $100,000

[Fan of Jate]

Richard will be pleased to know that Western Terror had a reasonable day at the APG sales with one going for $20k and of course Im Corzin Terror winning the Cranbourne Cup Friday night he could be well satisfied.

[Messenger]

Have to admit I have never heard of this horse before now Kev, lets hope he can get to $100,000

Pat, he is not going to make a sire on His ability alone

[Fan of Jate]

Perth APG sale went fairly well, fillies finally kicked into gear at last with some good sales. About 25% of the horses went for $8000 or under. There were a few surprises with the fillies. Sportswriter sales improved a bit, he is fairly popular in the West. Alta Christiano went pretty well although I have no idea why and Auckland Reactor shook off the Karaka blues to get a couple of good results. Nearly all the stallions had at least one good result. A few Perth trainers I talked to spoke highly of the way APG conducted the sale especially the administration side of it. The mare quality IMO was a bit below the Melbourne/Sydney sales.

[alphastud]

Richard,


No doubt they are good stallions but I could not see them getting anywhere near the top 2/3 because BD, AM etc are in the legend status and they get full books. McArdle and WT do pretty good but not compared to the others. I am aware that WT missed 5 seasons-Can he get that back? Their success is also based around NZ mares as well this makes a huge difference


How do Western Terror and McArdle go with 2/3 year olds in Australia? How do they rate with the newer stallions and the older ones? we know their older horses are good. I am sure they are not in the top twenty this season and last season so that really curtails their chances of getting into the upper echelon.


Breeding to race depends on cost, mare and stallion location and past performance- so those things have to be weighed up before choosing the stallion. Both of those stallions have produced about 5 good winners from mares I have in Safely Kept/Armbro operative and Presidential Ball so therefore I would be hoping for a fluke.


cheers

Good insight Pat. Yes, the stallions BD and AM have literally boolted in terms of thair popularity, gross prizemoney won etc. .
However, some other stallions do compete on performance. - I'll provide some info. on them later.

Re. WT and McArdle 2YO/3YO
Western Terror doesn't have any 3yr olds in Australia and so can't compete. It's probably too early in the season to compare 2yr olds.
McArdle had 14 live foals in the 2012/13 season that were Australian bred. This sample size is too small to analyse however, they've won $99,449 and are running at a $7,103 average.
In the US, McArdle's 2016 2YO's (so this years 3YO's) earned $1,275,790 ($13,152 ave). Art Major in comparison earned $1,425,121 ($13,196 ave). Western Terror earned $782,137 ($17,776 ave). He's NZ bred however did you see Our Wolf Of Wall Street's second start in Australia on the Bathurst track?

Well done on your winners. Cheers,

[alphastud]

I'm more happy for the buyers getting good value. Unfortunately, I have no financial interest in Western Terror. I have a 2YO WT filly who isn't showing much atm.

[Fan of Jate]

Eliteblood, I assume you are alluding to Western terrors size 15.2 hands as to why someone should think twice about sending him a small mare. So how would that go with Bettors delight who I hear is a very small stallion, definitley smaller than Western Terror. cheers

[eliteblood]

Eliteblood, I assume you are alluding to Western terrors size 15.2 hands as to why someone should think twice about sending him a small mare. So how would that go with Bettors delight who I hear is a very small stallion, definitley smaller than Western Terror. cheers

Same with BD, even more so

[Toohard]

Heaven Rocks goes ok too. Surely have to give them more than 2 years before can make that judgement?

This son of Rock N Roll Heaven (Let It Ride) went ok Fri night. Fastest last 800 ever at Addington and only a 3yo

https://youtu.be/DPmFfdHHsl4

[Messenger]

This son of Rock N Roll Heaven (Let It Ride) went ok Fri night. Fastest last 800 ever at Addington and only a 3yo

https://youtu.be/DPmFfdHHsl4

You led me on an interesting search Paul.
The dam of this promising 3yo (Love A Gamble) is a half sis to good NZ performer Gomeo Romeo

Interesting to note that GR was exported to Aus a couple of years ago by Jessica Francis* (I am assuming it was her as she is listed as the current owner) and he served a couple of mares owned by a Robert Ross and he now has a couple of yearling fillies to his name.

I wish them luck but I am not sure that Gomeo can crack the Sire's table as he is now listed as a gelding

(Off to 'suss reception' Strahan tomorrow so if you don't hear from me for a couple of days don't think I am dead - just extinct like the tiger down here)

[Fan of Jate]

Very fast horse, that mile rate is faster than Lazarus as a 3 year old at the same venue over the same distance. Superb gait.

[arlington]

(Off to 'suss reception' Strahan tomorrow so if you don't hear from me for a couple of days don't think I am dead - just extinct like the tiger down here)

Did you check out the Queenstown Oval for a bit of midweek training for the Mighty Blues Kev?

[Fan of Jate]

Kev, there are still Tigers in Tasmania & they are not extinct. If you are handy with a rod you can row out to the heads in Strahan and catch a "Tiger" flathead which is a local delicacy. Of course you need the required strength to haul one in as they are quite large.

[Messenger]

Did you check out the Queenstown Oval for a bit of midweek training for the Mighty Blues Kev?

I will Wayne and I am hoping to get Darcy back on board

http://insidesauce.com/darcy-vescio-resigns-from-role-as-levi-casboults-kicking-coach/

[Messenger]

Kev, there are still Tigers in Tasmania & they are not extinct. If you are handy with a rod you can row out to the heads in Strahan and catch a "Tiger" flathead which is a local delicacy. Of course you need the required strength to haul one in as they are quite large.
I will do my best Pat

[trish]

Had a look at Brisbane & Bathurst.


Brisbane....71 for sale........30 passed in......17 under $5.


Bathurst....116 for sale.....22 passed in.........67 under $10


Any one have anything to say on this?

[Messenger]

Those figures are 'breeder killers' Trish

[trish]

Those figures are 'breeder killers' Trish




I don't think that its the number of foals that is critical even though we can't race without them. It has become obvious that there just isn't anyone wanting to buy them. Especially if they are by a second trier sire.


I put a lot of this down to the fact that the top professional trainers are reaching every track in their state bar the most isolated & therefore a second tier horse is of no value. I don't know how they are going to address it.

[trish]

Kevin, go & see the ship that never was while in Strahan........its really good.

[Fan of Jate]

I heard the presentation of the yearlings wasn't very good at the Brisbane sale. It also seem a bit amateurish to me compared to the other APG sales watching it live. Mr Feelgood had a stack there but I don't think they achieved the prices the breeders wanted, a few did sell for a good price though. Some of the dams had unenviable track /breeding records which does not help. This will be an ongoing problem because buyers are getting fussy about the dams breeding ability and rightfully so , why throw your money away?


Some of the sires at the Brisbane/Bathurst sale weren't household names which does not help. Lone star legend would be one example.


One good thing is that purchasers can get a second dip at any of the unwanted horses at any of the after-sales and may be able to bargain into a good position. This will be a win /win for breeder and buyer.


I am not sure if Trish's figures have taken into account any after- sales.I know there has been a few sold from all of the APG sales.

[Greg Hando]

Bathurst has alway's been a bread and butter sale. There is only about 5 or 6 sires at the sale not counting new Sires that haven't been in the top 20 sires lists here. The second tier sires and lower are the one's that keep our game going and without them we have no industry. Most seller's realise they aren't going to get top dollar at Bathurst and have to sell and hope to get a return buyer next time if the horse show's some ability as the next lot is ready to wean and need the room.

[trish]

Melbourne Autumn Sale..... IMO if the sales keep going like this they will be scratching for numbers for the sales in the future. And I need to ask is HRA worried about the terrible results for the majority of breeders (smaller folk) . I wonder if everyone appreciates
the time, effort & money that goes into getting these yearling ready for the sales, so many breeders have lost money this year & if they were running it as a business it would send them broke.


58 for sale.......23 passed in .......10 over $10........the rest under $10.......that's crap, really feel for the small breeder.

[trish]

http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=33111




Is there anyone out there who could make a profit breeding a foal & selling it at the yearling sales for $8800 considering the 11% you have to pay for the sale of your horse??????

[alphastud]

There couldn't too be many Trish for yearlings by stallions of +3k service fees. Especially if you consider any sunk costs from dead foals, missed years etc.

However, APG seem to have improved the prices for this sale which is positive.

How much different were prices back when the owners of these yearlings were making their breeding decisions?

Should the industry prop up the breeding of yearlings at this price point or let it naturally phase out?

I think that it depends on which industry strategy we think is priority and wish to support.

[arlington]

http://www.harness.org.au/news-article.cfm?news_id=33111


Is there anyone out there who could make a profit breeding a foal & selling it at the yearling sales for $8800 considering the 11% you have to pay for the sale of your horse??????

From the article, the quote from APG General Manager David Boydell "As far as the sale goes, probably the biggest disappointment was that we didn't see as many of the smaller hobby trainers in attendance as I would have liked".


Answer???

[Mister JayKO]

From the article, the quote from APG General Manager David Boydell "As far as the sale goes, probably the biggest disappointment was that we didn't see as many of the smaller hobby trainers in attendance as I would have liked".


Answer???

The Hobby Trainers were the lifeblood of the industry, they sustained it, provided the numbers, bred their own, occasionly bought a few at the sales, but in effect kept the industry strong. They have been phased out through some pretty poor decision making at the top which took an "american" view of how the industry should be run. It is cost prohibitive for someone to enter the industry now without some sort of base. Some of the race carts are now around $10k, you need to have pretty deep pockets to be able to dabble in the game as a hobby when 30-40 years ago everyone did it. I did a quick set of sums of all the trainers that formerly trained in the Terang region versus what is left. I got to 35-40 individual trainers, now there are less than 10 spread a lot further.

Personally, I think that the hobbyists are virtually gone from both codes. Syndicates are the go but perhaps we should explore the amatuer driving route as done in NZ. Standardbreds are a much more kinder animal to handle than their Thoroughbred cousins, the trick is to allow people to get to know them, but with current OH&S and Insurance regulations, there are barriers preventing that connection.

It's not a bright outlook, but that's nothing new, and we must remember that "Give Up" never won a race so we have to keep looking for new ways to market the industry to the general population. We used to get dedicated press in news papers but that ceased years ago. Social Media is great but we need to hit the mainstream with good stories if we can.

[trish]

Stu has hit the nail right on the head, your plight down there is being played out in many other areas including NSW. The only thing I can add to that is that, with the professional trainers making weekly runs to most tracks in NSW, the hobbyist is going out as cannon fodder. I personally love it when they win. The country clubs need to program more races for the people that made them, the locals.
Every time that a drug cheat or race fixer gets their case adjourned , and adjourned & adjourned, more hobbyist throw their hands up, put their broodmares up for sale & sell there gear. The simple reason for this is that they don't have to put up with it. They can walk away whenever they want and from all of the hobbyist we know they are, at the very least talking about it & planning it.

[trish]

May as well put Redcliffe in here.....some very poor money for the breeders.


112 for sale.........85 were $5000 or under & 51 were $2000 or under, costs more than that to feed a horse for a year($2000).



http://www.darrenebertauctioneer.com.au/yearlingsale2017.php