Back To The Future??

Thought this was rather interesting.
It's the synopsis of a report from HRA back in April, 2005.


CURRENT TRENDS TO BE AWARE OF

1. The number of top level stallions imported and available in Australasia at a stud fee in excess of $3000 is established and increasing.

2. The numbers of first season North American stallions are readily available and there is limited local ownership

3. The cost of North American stallions has tripled as a result of the economic conditions in North American harness racing, recognition of their Duel Hemisphere revenue potential and our local currency compared to the US Dollar. To be competitive, future outstanding stallion acquisitions will start at $US 1 million plus.

4. The cost of standing stallions has increased substantially with large investments in technology, marketing and logistics now necessary.

5. Breeders are incurring substantial additional costs as a result of using transported semen which is somewhat offset by breeders getting better value for money with stallion service fees

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?

1. A small number of very large and sophisticated stallion stations supported by highly efficient insemination farms scattered throughout Australasia

2. The vast majority of imported stallions substantially overseas owned and the bulk of service fees remitted to North America

3. More opportunities for our local champions to embark on successful stud careers (especially future sons of the top US sires).

4. A further reduction in the number of mares breed but a significant lift in quality resulting in a net increase in horses that get to race.

5. The number of mares bred each season to the most popular stallions falling significantly as the number of quality stallions available increases significantly and conception rates improve using the frozen semen approach as opposed to those using chilled semen

WHO WILL BENEFIT IN THE FUTURE?

1. North American stallion owners who will be able to dictate future service fee levels.

2. Those farms who understand the new paradigm and position themselves to be either a large scale stallion station standing multiple stallions or a well appointed and highly trained insemination farm.

3. Those commercial breeders who recognize that a much better quality yearling will in future be necessary to attain even today’s prices and who upgrade or cull their current broodmares accordingly. Hopefully market competition will act as a ceiling for the pricing of stud fees for all breeders.

Amazing. So close to what has happened.

Yeh, kind of. Most of it.

Under 'What does the future hold' it missed the mark partially on point (1) & completely on point (3) and again partially on point (5)

(1) supported by highly efficient insemination farms scattered throughout Australasia. Nah. Some are expectional, most have a lot of room left for improvement.

(3) More opportunities for our local champions to embark on successful stud careers (especially future sons of the top US sires).
Nah. This still hasn't gotten underway in earnest.
We still don't have a top class 3yo race over the Mile here in Oz where the prospective breeding barn retiree's could step out & tout their wears. This needs to be addressed.

(5) The number of mares bred each season to the most popular stallions falling significantly as the number of quality stallions available increases significantly and conception rates improve using the frozen semen approach as opposed to those using chilled semen.
Nah. Transported semen conception rates have in fact fallen rather than improving. Directly related to (1) actually.

The rest of it though...Current trends and Who will benefit....some Nostradamus Award stuff right there.

Yes #5 is way off. Too many mares are going to the same stallions eg Art Major, and the pool of stallions in Aus gets smaller every year.
#1 in trends should have said $8000.