Thought this was interesting- Post by Larry Cohen to the US Harnesslist
Some really nitty, gritty and extremely interesting stuff here from Larry Cohen of the US Harnesslist with permission from Larry & from Rick Spierman.
-----Original Message-----
From: harnesslist@yahoogroups.com[mailto:harnesslist@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of lawhcohen@optonline.net
Sent: Thursday, 10 February 2011 1:46 PM
To: harnesslist@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [harnesslist] Experimental Ratings 2011 and Breed Comments
Folks,
This year's Experimental Championship Ratings came out in Hoof Beats
for the 3 year old pacers of 2011
and I thought I'd comment on what it has to say about the breed.
Of the 25 Horses, there were 3 fillies and 4 geldings (I hate seeing geldings but what are
you going to do). This includes the #2 ranked horse Feel Like a Fool (g) by Art Major.
But I sure wouldn't mind owning one of these horses.
As for the gross view of the sire lines, the pendulum has swung in the direction of the
Most Happy Fella tribe, with 20 of 25 horses sired through his stallions and the remaining
5 via the Abercrombie line stallions.
Compare this to last year where there was 16 Most Happy Fella, 7 Abercrombie, 1 Bret Hanover,
and 1 Direct Scooter Line represented.
Taking a look under the hood a bit:
8 - Most Happy Fella - - Western Hanover - Western Ideal [1] (Rocknroll Hanover [5], American Ideal [2]):
2 - Most Happy Fella - - Western Hanover - himself
2 - Most Happy Fella - - Western Hanover - non-Western Ideal: (Panspacificflight, Richess Hanover)
1 - Most Happy Fella - - Jate Lobell (Powerful Toy)
6 - Most Happy Fella - Cam Fella (Camluck [2], Cam's Card Shark [2], (Bettor's Delight [2]))
1 - Most Happy Fella - Tyler B (Dragon Again)
3 - Abercrombie - Artsplace (Art Major, Artiscape, Geartogear)
2 - Abercrombie - Life Sign [1] (Real Desire [1]))
That's 13 No Nukes (Oil Burner) sire line horses in the Experimental Handicap. That's pretty good.
The Jate Lobell line is hanging on by a thread.
If I was going to rank the most likely sire lines for prosperity,
based on this scant evidence,
I'd say:
- Western Ideal line representatives % seems to really enjoy the Abercrombie line mares
- Artsplace line representatives % Will look to rebound in coming years (paging Art Official)
- Cam Fella line representatives % Continues to throw top horses
One can hope that we see some other interesting lines appear to threaten this
blockade (e.g., Somebeachsomewhere); will the Volomite line continue to throw the occassional
top 20 sire every decade? How about the Warm Breeze/Falcon Seelster Line (paging McArdle)?
It will be interesting to see if the non-Artsplace Abercrombie sire lines continue
to show vigor.
It will also be interesting to see if Western Ideal (and his line) creates a "jailbreak"
for this branch of the line and continue to pump out top 10 stallion
worthy race horses (paging Rocknroll Heaven).
I did a thumbnail analysis of the content and crosses in these horses. Most are at most
closest bred at the 3x4 level. #22 Watermelonwine is 2x4; #19 Just Asign To Me and S#20 JSir Ziggy's Z Tam
are both 3x3; #18 Roll With Joe is a double 3x4 (essentially a 3x3) and #5 Big Bad John
is a 3X4x4 to the same horse. #25 Flight Elal is 3X5x5x5 to Albatross; almost a 3x3 equivalent.
The least inbred horse, on the surface at least, is #13 Foreclosure N who starts out with a 4x5 cross.
As for sires represented in the Experimental Horses, Albatross, Most Happy Fella, and obviously
Meadow Skipper are all "saturated" and appear in the pedigrees of all horses. This too
can be said for older horses such as Adios, Tar Heel, and Billy Direct.
Bret Hanover appears in the pedigree of all horses except for #11 Wink N Atcha.
Abercrombie is making inroads and is absent from only 3 pedigrees, #6 Mystician, #17 Powerful Mist,
and #25 Flight Elal. For Mystician and Powerful Mist, that makes them interesting stallion prospects
down the line (Flight Elal is a gelding).
Big Towner was missing from 16 of this years pedigrees while Direct Scooter appeared
in only 10 of the 25 pedigrees (thanks mostly to Rich N Elegant).
I started to look at Artsplace this year and he appears in 12 of the 25 pedigrees. Pretty
good for a rookie!!
As for Broodmares:
11 - Abercrombie line (Artsplace [6], Sportsmaster, Armbro Emerson, Life Sign, Artiscape, Real Artist)
1 - Adios (Incredible Finale)
7 - No Nukes line (Jate Lobell [2], Make A Deal, Dexter Nukes, Western Hanover, Western Ideal)
1 - Cam Fella (Fake Left)
1 - Tyler B (Magical Mike)
2 - Jennas Beach Boy
1 - Direct Scooter
1 - Big Towner
The Abercrombie tribe is definitely serving up well as broodmares this year. Last year they
represented 7 of 25. Artsplace stayed even at 6.
The Most Happy Fella crew, understandably dropped from 16 broodmare credits last year to
only 9 this year, because they had so many sire line candidates this year (I'd presume - see
a bit later).
Surprisingly there were so few Cam Fella line broodmare candidates. For a while there, I thought
the daughters of Cam Fella and Camtastic were really going to be well represented with their foals.
Rick will be sad to see that only one Matt's Scooter broodmare credit appeared with #17 - Powerful Mist.
Most interesting statistics:
#3 Shadyshark Hanover, #6 Mystician, #8 Prodigal Seelster, #10 Lookinforadventure, #12 See You
At Peelers, #13 Foreclosure N, #14 Idyllic all have MHF on MHF sire line to broodmare
sire line breeding.
#9 Real Desire, #19 Just Asign To Me have Abercrombie sire line to broodmare sire line breeding.
Statistically, I'm surprised at how often the doubling up occurs.
This says something in favor of inbreeding I'd think.
We finish off with some frivolity
J's are Rollin:
If you really wanted a top horse this year, you had to have the right naming angle.
#1 Big Jim
#5 Big Bad John
#18 Roll With Joe # your naming angle winner
#23 Rollwithitharry
Jeepin Jehusiphat Batman
Any and all comments are welcome.
Larry
Harness, The Breed
