Miracle mile

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smoken

So if IMTQ for instance had a race to suit, but ran a shocker, would that then mean, something was wrong with him, or he just ain't good enough anymore in this level? Triggers past 5 starts, apart from mm, have been massive, especially his 4ths!
Beautide and every other horse deserves respect, no disrespect to any of them, but why is it wrong to say that Trigger is as good ATM as the rest of them? If I was talking about Triggers form from 2-5 yrs ago, I don't think most people would be mentioning any of the other horses in the same league as Trigger. He was nearly unbeatable, & even the flashy gazelle ITMQ couldn't get past him after having a fantastic sit.. They didn't even smash the clock that night, imagine ITMQ ran in LSM, which Trigger ran 148.5.. No horse that night would have beaten him, not even if they were Superhorse!

Depends on the situation re a horse running a 'shocker'. As I've been over, there are enough tie ins with Mach Beauty, Abettorpunt form that the result on Saturday night in the MM was indicative of where each horse is at. There has to be a passing of the crown at some stage and I think Sat night was certaintly it.
Have a look at the result, you can't say Smoken Up is as good as Beautide at the moment. A 12m margin says that. FAR has owned Mach Beauty lately. Mach Beauty doesn't run within a length of FAR from many tries. Yet he runs within a length of Smoken Up. FAR would have ran down Smoken Up last week. Just as FAR went past Smoken Up on Sat night. All pointers say FAR is better than Smoken Up. Beautide has beaten FAR (who has ran sub 1.50) 2/2 now, running straight past him on Sat night. Currently, Beautide is going a lot better than Smoken Up.
All indicators say Beautide would have won Cordina beating Smoken Up, and this was proved on Sat night in the Miracle Mile. Beautide is currently better than Smoken Up (over a mile at Menangle, Beautide is untested in this level over anything else), and has his measure.

This isn't an attack on Smoken Up. Nothing to be ashamed about running 5th in 1.50.2 as an 11yo. His best days just behind him, when he was at his peak the TAB wouldn't have offered a Miracle Mile win bet market, the market would have simply been pick the margin!!!

Look at the horses over all they have been running against mate, apart from Newcastle mile, beautide has been running against who? I wouldn't say he is better than FAR at all in this company, better on the night for sure. FOR did nothing really up the straight, yet still ran 3rd. Why does everyone assume that if it was any other horse on the back of a trigger in the Cordina, they would have won? If Smoken Up had won his last 4 or 5, would the same thing be even be said? It seems as though, Trigger has to reproduce 3 or more amazing wins in a row, or not far apart from each other, to even be considered dangerous.. I guess I'm Victorious even has Triggers measure now based on the MM..

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smoken

Look at the horses over all they have been running against mate, apart from Newcastle mile , beautide has been running against who? Irrelevant, he has now won against the best of the best. I wouldn't say he is better than FAR at all in this company, better on the night for sure. Better 2/2 now. It's on the night that matters. FOR did nothing really up the straight, yet still ran 3rd. Why does everyone assume that if it was any other horse on the back of a trigger in the Cordina, they would have won? Oh FFS how many times does the form reference with Mach Beauty and Abettorpunt, plus the actual Miracle Mile result need to be mentioned. Tell me why, if Beautide, Christen Me, or FAR were in the Cordina Smoken Up would have won? If Smoken Up had won his last 4 or 5, would the same thing be even be said? He didn't win his last 4 or 5 though, because he isn't as great as he once was. That is why Beautide and co now have his measure. Lets talk in the real world, not in a land of what ifs. It seems as though, Trigger has to reproduce 3 or more amazing wins in a row, or not far apart from each other, to even be considered dangerous.. He started about $3.50-$4...I think he is considered dangerous and will be dangerous again once the Vic Cup comes along I guess I'm Victorious even has Triggers measure now based on the MM That's just being petty..

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Beautide beat a high quality field, yes, that's not the main question here. I will ask you directly, do you think Smoken Up raced to his level? If not, why? No one is denying he is not as lethal as he was 2-5 yrs ago, that is common sense due to logic, i have been stating from the very start that you can't assess Trigger based on that run in the MM, as he was not himself! How can Trigger be dangerous in the Vic
Cup, if clearly Many others have his measure now? unless you secretly believe he did not run up to his standard.. When Beautife and FAR were caning MB, MB was going ballistic up front, so comparing is quite theoretical like everything we are talking about here.. If FAR or Beautide were on the back of Smoken Up last week, I will ask you, how do you know that Smoken Up wouldn't have won and why? It could have gone so many different ways, like Trigger breaking them, taking the sting out of there sprint etc etc etc...
According to you, he is pretty much done and dusted in the elite level.
I guess reality is a subjective view point, regardless of anyone's opinions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smoken

Beautide beat a high quality field, yes, that's not the main question here. Beautides opposition at his previous starts weren't the main question either but you still brought that up from nowhere. I will ask you directly, do you think Smoken Up raced to his level? If not, why? Pretty obvious my position from my earlier posts. No one is denying he is not as lethal as he was 2-5 yrs ago, that is common sense due to logic, i have been stating from the very start that you can't assess Trigger based on that run in the MM, as he was not himself! You keep saying that but offer up nothing as to why. Says it all really. I guess reality is a subjective view point, regardless of anyone's opinions.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Smoken

How can Trigger be dangerous in the Vic
Cup, if clearly Many others have his measure now? Beautide untested over anything more than a mile at this level, don't know make up of Vic Cup, will FAR, Christen Me be there? unless you secretly believe he did not run up to his standard.. When Beautife and FAR were caning MB, MB was going ballistic up front, so comparing is quite theoretical like everything we are talking about here.. Mach Beauty did not go ballistic up front in Miracle and I like how you ignore Abettorpunt. If FAR or Beautide were on the back of Smoken Up last week, I will ask you, how do you know that Smoken Up wouldn't have won and why? FFS I've answered that numerous times, you have not backed up your opinion once It could have gone so many different ways, like Trigger breaking them, asking the sting out of there sprint etc etc etc... Coulda woulda shoulda like Smoken Up coulda woulda shoulda won on Sat night.
According to you, he is pretty much done and dusted in the elite level. Not sure how you go from what I've said - not being as good as the top 3 - to being done and dusted. More than 3 horses run in elite level races. Who knows how long he can keep on being competitive. But as Lance said on Oct 4 winning speech at Melton, words to effect it isn't a matter of turning up and winning anymore, will need barrier and luck etc.
I guess reality is a subjective view point, regardless of anyone's opinions.

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Well each of us have to come up with evidence to support our opinions, regardless if they differ.
I take it your answer is, Triggers time is up, i am assuming to his age, yet you consider him a danger in the VIC Cup, on a track he really over all is not comfortable on, especially comparing him to his love affair with Menangle.
You say that I do not have anything to back his very poor run in the MM.. I thought the way he raced explained it all, we obviously disagree as to why that is. That is fine, i appreciate your opinions, even though I clearly don't agree. The 3 elite horse comment was a general comment, meaning those that placed in the MM, & the rest of te young big guns.
Emotions come in to it as well, for many different reasons, & yes I agree that Trigger can't be having tough runs like he once did, regardless of his ferocious tenacity and strength, he is 11 now.
It's all good man :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smoken

Well each of us have to come up with evidence to support our opinions, regardless if they differ. Didn't see any of your evidence but ok.
I take it your answer is, Triggers time is up, i am assuming to his age, yet you consider him a danger in the VIC Cup, on a track he really over all is not comfortable on, especially comparing him to his love affair with Menangle. Still holds two track records at Melton. Time as king, winning everything is up as Lance has said before. But can still do himself proud on the grand circuit, maybe still even bob up in the winners stall with some luck.
You say that I do not have anything to back his very poor run in the MM.. I thought the way he raced explained it all Just saying what you think is different to saying why you think it, we obviously disagree as to why that is. That is fine, i appreciate your opinions, even though I clearly don't agree.
It's all good man :)

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Even though you knew what I meant regarding 'my thought' comment, 'I think' my many posts already explained as to why I think he ran very poorly, & I really 'think' that is the fundamental reasoning of differing of opinions.

If you are right, no amount of luck, apart from most of the big guns in the field galloping, or them being unwell etc etc, will help Trigger bob up for another Grand Circuit/Group 1 win, or even a placing, based on his performance in the MM, which most think is due to his age(logical),
and to his lack of ability @ his age, which i am comfortable to say a few people on here including yourself, do not believe he has anymore. Look at the easy time he had in front in the MM, yet he punctured like he has never done before...
If i am right, he would have a chance based on his strength, tenacity, and ability., and his proper recovery time, which is needed due to his age.
I guess time will tell, even though it is coming around quickly for the mighty Champ!
I pray he can win a big one before he earns his well earned rest.
He is a legend after all.

P.S
It's not his age, it's his form. Triggers form from 2-5 years ago probably wins the race. His form isn't as good now.

I don't know many other horses who can run 5th btn 12m after leading get the benefit of doubt that they are in fact currently better than the horse who won. Bit disrespectful to the winner imo.

I am curious that you say that it is not his age, yet you imply it over and over, bringing up his age..;

Trigger is going bloody unreal for an 11yo and shouldn't be doing what he is doing, but lets be fair to the top three from last night, they now have his measure.

This isn't an attack on Smoken Up. Nothing to be ashamed about running 5th in 1.50.2 as an 11yo. His best days just behind him, when he was at his peak the TAB wouldn't have offered a Miracle Mile win bet market, the market would have simply been pick the margin!!!

That pretty much tells me your reasoning, is his age, in regards to his form or poor form or race in the MM, which i actually would agree with you as it is common sense.. He can't back it up like he used to due those reasons.

No one is disrespecting Beautide, but c'mon, it really makes you wonder if Trigger was on song like he was last week, what the outcome could have been, which i know you already have replied with shoulda coulda woulda :) Two years ago, Triggers form would have obliterated most if not all these horses in the MM, and i think it is fair to say that it is more than a probable..

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussiebreno

I don't know many other horses who can run 5th btn 12m after leading get the benefit of doubt that they are in fact currently better than the horse who won. Bit disrespectful to the winner imo.

Brenno myself i am not saying Trigger is today better than the 3 mentioned horses anywhere at any track cos he aint what he was, the light has faded a little no doubt, the old Trigger would have won his last couple of races at Melton i would say.

my point is simply that his last run was totally way down on the week before, simple. thats it, and you ask "Smoken" to back up that statement with why, well hows cos the Trainer said so! doesnt get any more real than that. however for me the proof was in the pudding...

Brenno, if you cant see the same horse having an easier lead, and no pressure in front until essentially the 600 or so, who in the same distance,same track 7 days earlier does run 12-14 or so metres FASTER (1:49.9 then 7 days later 1:50.2) then u really have the blinkers on.
Before the race i did not hear too many media "experts" or rival Drivers or Trainers totally writing him off and saying he will not be competitive because after his somewhat "surprising" (but great) return to form and favorite track most thought that it was totally possible that he would win the MM, or be right there anyway.
However he did not and i would say that most people would assess his run and say "he didnt run up to the form of the week before", in other words he was flat pretty much.
Greg Hayes has said that not many if any back up well from the Cordina to the MM.
Now Brendan, i am not saying and never have said that i think he would have won the MM if he ran up to the Cordina effort, cos Beau may very well have been too quick over the last 200 and may have beaten him by a head to 2m -5m who knows?
My only point is i i reckon he was flat in comparison.
I guess on In The Gig tonite we will have some evaluations of the race and different horses performances assessed, so will b interesting to what others say...