Reality Check For the McCarthy Paranoia!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mango

Hi Cassie
No need to apologise to anyone on here, your entitled to your opinion. And i don't doubt for one minute on what you have been observing and hearing around the tracks. Maybe they should put more effort into getting there house in order instead of rubbishing other people.

Thanks Mango I have worked out there are some passionate people on here ! which is good

I'll remember to be a bit more careful as to not upset them with my personal experiences.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maorisidol

I thought if the LM machine is so good, what if i backed all his horses, i'd b a millionaire!!!

Since October 1 i wrote down a $100 win bet on every LM horse.
Where he had 2 horses racing i chose to have $50 on the shortest price LM horse to win and $25 each way on the other horse.
Where he had 3 horses in the same race, i went same for fav, and $12.50EW for the others, so spending no more than 100 per race.

Well in October i lost $1,121.50
In November i lost $1,222.50
in December i WON $1,790
but am still DOWN $316 up till yesterday based on that example.
How come i'm not a millionaire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

REALITY CHECK NUMBER 2...
I looked at EVERY NSW Meeting in October.
There were 275 races in the state for all trainers to have a go at.
LM had horses in 53 races...thats about 19%
That means 81% of NSW races are LM FREE !!!!!!!

He won 24 races, thats 8.7% holy crap, there's a domination!!!
That means 91.3% of races were won by OTHER TRAINERS!!!!!!

He had 19 places = 6.9%

He RAN LAST 9 TIMES! And this is all only for OCTOBER.

Now to the paranoid, pass this around to your mates who are walking around trotting tracks shaking their heads and raising their eyebrows!

So what you're saying now Ash is that LM isn't even good for the punters?
The argument of the LM is now taking a twist.
Why then is he good for Harness Racing?

I'm not sure if your figures are right and I'm not going to blindly accept them like some others have. Why didn't you split the bet with multiple runners instead of assigning $50 for the fav etc. ?

Furthermore, I've often seen his horse with the bigger odds win against his fav. I don't have time to to review this, however I'd be interested in those numbers. Over to you Ash on this one.

I've heard Black Caviar referred to which is prepared by leading trainer Peter Moody. His strike rate is close to a record in thoroughbreds at 20%. see http://letsgohorseracing.com.au/inde...-nsw&Itemid=68
So then, if LM is at a 45% strike rate (more than double) that of the best trainer in the Thoroughbred Industry, then why are you a LM hater for questioning these unnatural statistics? What strike rate do we need to see before we say that this is ridiculous?

Cassie you make some valid points.

Quote:

Originally Posted by racefair

I'm not sure if your figures are right and I'm not going to blindly accept them like some others have.
Cassie you make some valid points.

The figures are not a true indication of LMs dominance because the real percentage only includes races he has a runner in not every race in NSW

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maorisidol

I thought if the LM machine is so good, what if i backed all his horses, i'd b a millionaire!!!

Since October 1 i wrote down a $100 win bet on every LM horse.
Where he had 2 horses racing i chose to have $50 on the shortest price LM horse to win and $25 each way on the other horse.
Where he had 3 horses in the same race, i went same for fav, and $12.50EW for the others, so spending no more than 100 per race.

Your statistics are flawed. You obviously can't get ahead by backing two and three horses per race where there is one winner, especially in your scenario where you had the most money on the shortest priced runner, who would be stupid enough to think you could get ahead doing that? It looks to me like a case of fudging the statistics to suit your own point of view.

A more realistic example would be to come up with the same statistics for every race LM has only one runner in, and as far as your doctored average looking strike-rate is concerned, how about races LM competed in versus races won, regardless of the number of runners he has entered.

Further to my post above, I just did a little research myself and and came up with some statistics of my own.

Luke McCarthy trained runners competed in 61 races in NSW over the month of December. Luke McCarthy trained runners won 36 of those races. Therefore for the month of December Luke McCarthy won 59% of all races he contested. Not a bad statistic, winning 60% of all races you contest. Makes him look like a lot better trainer than your statistics would indicate Ash.

Quote:

Originally Posted by p plater

Great stats Maoris, based on your stats LM won 24 from 53 races, thats 45%, now lets work out how to get better odds and you will be a millionaire.
Wish I could back 45% winners

Actually because he had 66 LM trained horses start i believe his stat may be 36% for THAT MONTH...

Each month is different, he had a greater December...

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Rainmaker

Further to my post above, I just did a little research myself and and came up with some statistics of my own.

Luke McCarthy trained runners competed in 61 races in NSW over the month of December. Luke McCarthy trained runners won 36 of those races. Therefore for the month of December Luke McCarthy won 59% of all races he contested. Not a bad statistic, winning 60% of all races you contest. Makes him look like a lot better trainer than your statistics would indicate Ash.

Eric did you miss this bit of my post...
"Well in October i lost $1,121.50
In November i lost $1,222.50
in December i WON $1,790"

See December in comparison to Oct/Nov!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes he had a great Dec as your individual stats show.
MY STATS, Eric, are based over about 14 weeks starting OCT1st to pretty much yesterday, in fact they dont even include yesterday which was a LM FREE day, so my stats should be watered down even more.
To compare my 14 week stats to your 4 weeks stats is not a true indication of his effect. And so NO i have in no way attempted to make anything look better or worse than what it is. When i started my "attempt to become a millionaire" i didnt know what the stats were going to say, i may have come up $3k in front and if i did i would be pulling my money out today to have a punt, but over 14 or so weeks on MY EXAMPLE they didnt.
Now, i am not a professional punter and i am not doing this to say my example is right by any means, there are millions of combinations anyone could try, mine was 1 out of a million simple as that. I am happy for anyone to show us all how to make money of this winning percentage, please step up, maybe we could all pool our money and all get rich at the same time?
My attempt was to try and appease this seemingly hysteria rippling thru the tracks about LM and that and as young Cassie put it, "not even the Fitzpatricks, Turnbulls etc can compete!"
Well again look at this "LM had horses in 53 races...thats about 19%
That means 81% of NSW races are LM FREE !!!!!!! "

Also people, consider these 2 horses who have helped Lukes stats, Franco Jamar and Buckeye Nation.
I consider Jamar to not really be Lukes horse. He is a NZ horse, trained there and he came to Aus to stay a while...he may come back to Luke but i dont consider he is a long term
entity in Aus, i stand to be corrected but i hope u get where i am coming from, anyway that horse pumped his stats by 7 WINS, take 7 wins away and that is very effective.
Buckeye has won 3 recently and thats because Luke had the foresight to go search and choose a horse he felt could win him races over here from the US. Good luck to him well done for thinkin outside the square, now yes i know this takes money, but surely some other NSW stables could collate some owners and attempt to do the same. There is a great new Menangle track, there is great money now on offer, seriously whats stopping them, put your nuts on the table and have a go!
Combine Jamar and Buck, theres 10 wins. Take out 10? thats a lot...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maorisidol

Eric did you miss this bit of my post...
"Well in October i lost $1,121.50
In November i lost $1,222.50
in December i WON $1,790"

See December in comparison to Oct/Nov!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes he had a great Dec as your individual stats show.
MY STATS, Eric, are based over about 14 weeks starting OCT1st to pretty much yesterday, in fact they dont even include yesterday which was a LM FREE day, so my stats should be watered down even more.
To compare my 14 week stats to your 4 weeks stats is not a true indication of his effect. And so NO i have in no way attempted to make anything look better or worse than what it is. When i started my "attempt to become a millionaire" i didnt know what the stats were going to say, i may have come up $3k in front and if i did i would be pulling my money out today to have a punt, but over 14 or so weeks on MY EXAMPLE they didnt.
Now, i am not a professional punter and i am not doing this to say my example is right by any means, there are millions of combinations anyone could try, mine was 1 out of a million simple as that. I am happy for anyone to show us all how to make money of this winning percentage, please step up, maybe we could all pool our money and all get rich at the same time?
My attempt was to try and appease this seemingly hysteria rippling thru the tracks about LM and that and as young Cassie put it, "not even the Fitzpatricks, Turnbulls etc can compete!"
Well again look at this "LM had horses in 53 races...thats about 19%
That means 81% of NSW races are LM FREE !!!!!!! "

Also people, consider these 2 horses who have helped Lukes stats, Franco Jamar and Buckeye Nation.
I consider Jamar to not really be Lukes horse. He is a NZ horse, trained there and he came to Aus to stay a while...he may come back to Luke but i dont consider he is a long term
entity in Aus, i stand to be corrected but i hope u get where i am coming from, anyway that horse pumped his stats by 7 WINS, take 7 wins away and that is very effective.
Buckeye has won 3 recently and thats because Luke had the foresight to go search and choose a horse he felt could win him races over here from the US. Good luck to him well done for thinkin outside the square, now yes i know this takes money, but surely some other NSW stables could collate some owners and attempt to do the same. There is a great new Menangle track, there is great money now on offer, seriously whats stopping them, put your nuts on the table and have a go!
Combine Jamar and Buck, theres 10 wins. Take out 10? thats a lot...

You make a good point Ash. If you grabbed those figures straight up I apologise, I just thought the picture your figures painted wasn't a true reflection of how dominate Luke has been in recent times. Personally I'm neither pro McCarthy or against McCarthy, if he is abiding by the rules good on him for his success, nor is it his business to tell others his training practices. I just hope some other trainers catch up soon or some big name trainers from interstate set up shop at Menangle and try and compete, if the McCarthy juggernaught rolls on and gets stronger as I expect it will, I can't see it being good for the industry in the long term, competition keeps people interested.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zipzap

The figures are not a true indication of LMs dominance because the real percentage only includes races he has a runner in not every race in NSW

Hi Larry, the generally accepted measure of strike rate is made by dividing the number of winners by the number of starters and multiplying it by 100 to get a percentage. See the link that I copied in my original post which has the thoroughbred industry measuring it by the same method. We could do it by your method, however you will get the same outcome in seeing LM's rate nearly double that of Peter Moody the leading trainer in the Thoroughbred Industry.

Quote:

Originally Posted by racefair

Hi Larry, the generally accepted measure of strike rate is made by dividing the number of winners by the number of starters and multiplying it by 100 to get a percentage. See the link that I copied in my original post which has the thoroughbred industry measuring it by the same method. We could do it by your method, however you will get the same outcome in seeing LM's rate nearly double that of Peter Moody the leading trainer in the Thoroughbred Industry.

Kerryn Manning is going at 33% so comparing apples and oranges in regards to leading Tbred trainer.