Hope you've come through Gina ok teecee. Thoughts with the south islanders.Quote:
Originally Posted by teecee
Yes thanks Wayne. Better than an earthquake. At least you know what might be with a weather event.
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Hope you've come through Gina ok teecee. Thoughts with the south islanders.Quote:
Originally Posted by teecee
Yes thanks Wayne. Better than an earthquake. At least you know what might be with a weather event.
From TC's link
"He then drew the outside of the front line for Saturday’s great race, a starting position from where no horse has run a place in the Miracle Mile since it moved to Menangle."
If it wasn't for the want of a place pool, I sometimes wonder whether it would be fairer to only have a 6 horse MM
That could be a good idea Kevin. Betting may increase for the win, quinella, tri etc. pool and offset any decreases in the place pool.
The betting from the 2013 MM (Baby Bling) - 7 horse field could provide some insight. However, did participants think that this was an exciting race?
Baby Bling Worst ID in history!Quote:
Originally Posted by alphastud
I don't mind the 8 horses over the 6 horses. I think the bigger field lends itself to more competition to get up front early, which means if you can lob just off the speed you have a good chance. If you land just off the speed in a small race where there isn't much speed you aren't really a chance. So no doubt hard for those drawn wide or who settle last, but it does give those midfield a bit better chance so overall the race can have more chances. All circumstantial on how a certain race is run though.
A great story about our own 'TooHard' as an MM promo from Cody
https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...-says-breeder/
As a spectacle, the Miracle Mile is just another race these days, despite the "directors' picks" as to which horse gets an invitation.
I find it strange that the ID gets shortened as a series and heats held far and wide yet the MM (now) has "qualifiers". It is no longer an elite invitation race. It was a far greater, and fairer, spectacle when the six best horses in Australasia wee invited.
Then again, my memories of the race only go back to Lucky Creed's win (just a few years ago!). My favourite was Young Quinn in 1975 - had to listen to it on the tranny because I'd found something more interesting that Friday night!
Complements All Stars Website.....
ALL STARS AND THE MIRACLE MILE
Mark will be hoping for a second training win in the Miracle Mile on Saturday night and if it happens he will know it has been well earned. So will Natalie. Both could tell you how hard a race it is to win. Bloody hard!. Even by super race standards
All Stars has one on the board thanks to HAVE FAITH IN ME driven by Natalie in his fabulous, record shattering 2016 victory over Lennythshark. But both Mark and Natalie have hard luck stories in other runnings of the race. BLACKS A FAKE posted two second placings for Natalie one by half a head. IL VICOLO was twice second also for Mark. The second time, when he went down to Iraklis in December 1996 they set a mile rate which was never bettered in the race while it was run over 1760m, which it was until 2009.
JACK CADE trained and driven by Mark was second to Sokyola in 2003 and SMOLDA second to Lennytheshark last year when LAZARUS was third and WAIKIKI BEACH 4th. That makes six second placings between Mark and Natalie so perhaps Natalie's strike rate won her the drive this year !
The race is also tougher for New Zealand horses to win than you may think especially given the number of superstar horses we have developed i n the last 20 years. Kiwi-trained horses have only won four Miles this century. Holmes D G won his second in 2000, Monkey King won the first mile race nine years later and Christen Me and Have Faith In Me have scored since.
The other thing about the Miracle Mile- If you are an avid supporter of the Kiwis and you have heart problems-don't watch.
Only one horse has won the race over the mile by more than 2 metres. Which isn't very far. The last three have been won by short half heads (nose to us) or a head and that tradition looks like continuing on Saturday. Only one of the mile races has not broken 1.51 and that was when Smoken UP easily beat Karloo Mick and Imamightyquinn back in 2011. There is no fear of a 1.51 mile this year with 1.47 under threat if we get the fireworks many are expecting,
MARK REPORTS
" I was disappointed with Partyon's work earlier in the week so I have taken her out of the Ladyship but I am pleased to say Piccadilly Princess is in a very good place and I am looking forward to a big race from her. If there is not a scratching by tomorrow I am likely to take All U Need is Faith out of the Derby where he is on the ballot. He has got a bit colty and harder to handle this week and I just don't think a spell in the detention barn will be easy on anyone especially as he needs another scratching to get in the race. So we might cut that factor out and get him home to look at the local features.
Lazarus is doing well and I will give him a solid workout tomorrow (Thursday) I am happy but it is wrong to expect him to be where he was at the NZ Cup week and the Inter Dominion. But I am confident he will go a big race if he keeps going the way he is.
I thought about the change of driver for a while before making the decision. As you say I have done it before in favour of Natalie and she drives the track so well there is nothing lost.
There is always a lot of pressure associated with a horse like this and I thought if I could stick to the training and let someone else worry about the driving it would be better for the horse. Worrying about where he is at and worrying more about the racenight drive was just going to be too much.
Having had so many relatively trouble free trips over here this year's has been a bit hard to take at times with the setbacks we have had but we have taken the same precautions and used the same approach as in the past and the staff has been just as good. It is just one of those things that happen to everyone in racing and you have to bear with it "
6 straight Gp1's and Gavin Lang not driving - seems strange
Preview:
Tiger Tara: Can he lead? I don't think so. I think Anything For Love will cross him. From here he will get a gem of a run to the 350m but after that what will happen? Big chance he either won't get out or even worse get dragged back by a tiring AFL. Hard to see him winning, even if he did lead he will have to work mighty hard and be vulnerable late.
Anything For Love: If he reproduces last weeks run he just about wins. Only problem is he will face some more pressure early this week so that may be his undoing. Big chance especially if things can go right for him. Tritton is the best trainer of a Miler and AFL has continually shaved a second off his times each run this prep.
My Field Marshall: Mammoth final 800m and 400m last week. There is three horses going in relatively fresh with AFL, Kung Fu being the other two but those two are new kids on the scene whereas Field Marshall is the seasoned pacer who bypassed the Inter/WA Cup/Vic Cup/Hunter Cup path a few others have taken. I think this means he has had the best preparation for the Miracle Mile specifically so while he may not have the class of Soho and Laz he might just be the best prepared horse here tonight.
Jilliby Kung Fu: A repeat of the Chariots performance and he wins. Only problem is he won't be able to repeat that with AFL drawn inside him so will either have to go back for a chance of running on to a nice midfield finish, or what I would prefer Lee to do is chance his arm early and at least get in the race. He has serious gate speed and if he is a winning threat would need to cross. Has to risk having egg on his face to be any chance of winning.
Soho Tribeca: Pretty good draw to follow the speed across and lob in a handy position. Will probably be marginally better for the run last week and is the horse to beat. Will be perfectly poised to make a midrace move should the speed slacken or to pounce late.
Lennytheshark: I thought they should have went back last week so tipping they will this week. Dependent on tempo he will run past a few in the straight. He is only a length off his best at most, its just that others have risen through the ranks. Was over-rated going in to the Inters but is now being underrated. Big chance AFL and Kung Fu screw each other up, Tiger doesn't see daylight, Laz doesn't have the sprint and that Lenny is a little bit better than Charlaval and maybe even Field Marshall so Lenny fans should be getting on here. I've tried to steer people clear of Lenny in the past but at $21 the Vics should get on.
Charlaval: He deserved to get in the field on the back of his third but initially looked well out of depth and TAB put him up $151. On closer inspection I don't think he is quite as outclassed as that. His runs down the track he got back and they went 26 final quarters. He won't be too far off them.
Lazarus: If this race is 2400m he is $1.30, or possibly $1.50 after last week. Even over 2000m he is even money. But over 1609? Hard to see how he wins. I just don't see the sectionals that he will have to do and how that can lead to him winning, I keep running different scenarios but none really add up to him winning. He is a bit like Blacks a Fake in the sense they are head and shoulders over their opposition over 2100m+ because they can maintain just shy of a 100% sprint for longer than any other horse. While both Laz and BAF have elite turn of foot and can also maintain 100% sprint for a long period of time they are 'only' on par with the other elite horses when it comes to those attributes so a mile race drawn wide doesn't give them a chance to use their biggest weapon and run the others into the ground. Note Blacks a Fake never won a Miracle Mile. I can't believe I wrote out Lazarus $7.50 below it makes me sick!
My market Win/Place:
Soho $3/$1.40
AFL $6/$2.50
Laz $7.50/$2.5
MFM $7.50/$2
Tiger $10/$3
Kung Fu $15/$4
Lenny $17/$3
Charlaval $26/$7
Final Selections:
Soho Tribeca
My Field Marshall
Anything For Love
Lazarus
Tiger Tara
Lennytheshark
Jilliby Kung Fu
Charlaval
Good stuff Brenno, thanks
He has won both the $25k Tontine's at Geelong with one of them being a $33 popQuote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...&fromstate=vic
Am I allowed to say Nats might just scare the bejesus into Lazarus and a new record.
1.46.9
(ps Soho Tribeca is an iron horse)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
pps and an exceptional time for the 4yo.
Adam Hamilton just mentioned it is the 7th fastest mile in the World
ps That 2yo College Chapel was impressive +++ running 1.52 at its second start
pps Field Marshall has the pedigree to be a stallion of the future?
Have to feel for Soho Tribeca that was a mammoth run but take nothing away from Field Marshall his last 800m will be interesting. I read an article with quotes from Tim Butt saying how he skipped the Inter and Hunter Cup on purpose and its a masterstroke to deliver this victory. Kung Fu has a future if he can maintain this form.
Lennys run just about on par with the run behind Have Faith In Me a couple years ago, I think it goes to show we have a fantastic crop of Grand Circuit horses at the moment.
Foreal was a top mare. How has Art Major gone of a sire of sires?Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
You can find the list in www.classicfamilies.netQuote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Go to Performers, then find the all time 1:48 performers, and the list is there.
It's interesting to see where some of the well promoted North American stallions fit on the list !
When you convert the time to imperial and fifths like the Americans do it becomes 1.46.4 so it's equal third fastest. With US times .1 is 1/5 (the fraction one fifth) so a decimal time of 1.46.9 would become 1.46.4 (the .4 means four fifths) or it would be rounded up to 1.47.0, I'm not sure if they round up though. . People forget this. You will notice on the sub 1.48 performers list no time ran in the US or Canada will end in higher than .4 because the .4 means 4/5ths. So the decimal system is robbing our horses of some records.
So far Art Official, For A Reason, Major In Art (Brallos Pass :D), Santanna Blue Chip have not set the world on fire but it is still reasonably early days for themQuote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
and we are still to see with Follow The Stars, Restrepo, and JK Endofanera
as far as Foreal's family (N54), it gained prominence thanks to the males Jay Bees Fella in the 80's, Bogan Fella in the 90's, Tribute (and Foreal) last decade and now My Field Marshall
It would be disappointing if Art Major's line did not continue but Artsplace had several siring sons
Great point Rick, I will pass that on to John Peck and see what he thinks it should beQuote:
Originally Posted by gutwagon
It would be equal second in a race, as Cambest's very old record was a time trial .Quote:
Originally Posted by gutwagon
The second and third horses times would be close to the winners.
Hi Rick, John sensibly explained that you keep times as per region
If you were going to convert times for comparison it would still sit where John has it as it would have been rounded up. So overall it is Eq 7th race time
If it had been 1.46.8, it would have been Eq 2nd race time (with the US 1.46.4's)
I wasn't sure if they rounded them up or not. Anyway I think it should have stayed at 1.47.0 because that's where the clock stopped , I can't understand how they are sometimes wound back. I understand how quarters are rounded up or down to one decimal place but you can't wind the overall time back to the previous second.
At 1.46.9 they are doing 15.05 m/sec so every horse from the Winner to AFL have broken 1.48
Soho Tribeca may prove to be the future stallion prospect (for breeder Robert Watson)
When you look at descendants of 2nd dam Amarillen, you wonder whether this could be the beginning of a dynasty
http://classicfamilies.net/CF/Descen...rseID=10113052
(don't forget to click on the + box for Pixel Perfect)
Fair call Kev, Nice family and Soho Tribeca is as tough as old boots
Went down Saturday night and what a night, weather conditions were perfect for fast times and the barrier draw for the mile ensured there would be no easy time for anyone at any stage, I tipped very early in the day a possible sub '47 mile due to the above factors and we were not disappointed.
With regards to the debate about whether it was the fifth/seventh or whatever fastest mile in history, lets take into account the winner was never on the pegs, nor was the hugely courageous Jilliby Kung Fu ( now there is the next superstar if he stays sound), how many of the records taken in the North were sitting one off the pegs/fence the entire journey? I don't know but I'd hazard a guess at less than 50%.
I have always known and put forward that our horses were at LEAST the equal of the Northern Hemisphere, people keep on saying it's because of the top US/Canadian sires being made available, but that is marketing spiel, nothing more nothing less. Our horses were going to the states and beating them at their own game in the sixties and early seventies before we had an influx of predominantly low grade sires imported and marketed as the best thing since sliced bread by at least one shrewd Kiwi bloke that made a fortune out of dragging our breed back a generation or two in the name of his own bank account.
Evolution is why the horse are going so much quicker and we see spurts in evolutionary advancement from time to time, as Frank Irvine's father said to him about 100 years ago," one day the pacers will go as fast as the "runners" ( gallopers)" he meant that he was seeing great strides in evolution even then ( much bigger strides than we see now) and had great faith in the breed. And I believe he was correct, it won't happen in my lifetime that a standardbred will run 1.30 for a mile, but it will happen sometime in the next 100 years.
cheers,
Dan
Well said Dan, I had that exact conversation with Bob McArdle a couple of years ago. Been away for a while and missed a lot but I’m real happy to see that the Breeders Of Jilliby Kung Fu are Dean and Blanche Poole from Victoria, They are terrific people and I’m very happy for them
Puppet with the drive on Shadow Sax now as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Just shown some betting figures for the night - it was a humungous mistake running a 2yo race straight after MM
My local Pub TAB in Bundoora closed at 9.30 on MM night, a few minutes before the race and it's a big venue. That's the sort of support the TAB gives our sport. They are usually open until around 10 but close early if it's quiet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
I didn't mind the scheduling. Can't have the 2yo race early because you need to piggyback the Sat arvo gallops so it needs to be just about last race. The lesser races piggy-backed the Gallops and then we had the Features which should stand strong on their own culminating in the Mile. I like the features culminating with the Mile because it keeps everyones bum on the seat in the lead up. Could possibly have switched the Franco Nelson race to after the Mile as in that race as he was short priced fave but would that have had a net benefit for the whole meeting? The Let It Ride race could have switched but he was short in the market.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
How should it have been scheduled?
This large agency's win pools had been well over 50k for lead up races, 170k MM, <5k 2yo - that is a disaster as following race had potential to be 2nd best slot
Wherever the 2yo race was scheduled it was going to be a low wagered race. Better to have it when people have switched off and gone to bed rather than earlier in the night. If one of those lead up races of over 50K was after the Mile you run the risk of that race having a much smaller pool as people tune out. Let It Ride was the shortest priced favourite so you wouldn't want to waste that race pre Mile either unless you pushed the Mile back to Race 8 in which case 10.00PM is getting on the late side for a feature. If you raced the Mares race or the Oaks or that M0 ladies race or whatever race after the Mile that race has a much smaller pool so your total turnover for the night is down. They've still pretty much maximised the total turnover for the night, could have had the Let It Ride race and 2yo reversed but what trainer wants to be washing their 2yo at 11pm?Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Edit: Those figures are also drastically different to the TABs tote pools. They had about $35K for lead ups and $16K for 2yo. That is a big difference in % terms. You've got it at the 2yos having <10% of the turnover when TAB has it about 50%.
2nd edit: Would those smaller 2yo figures also be impacted a tiny bit by not accepting larger fixed odds bets on the 2yos?
Brendan, my son-in-law a pro price setter (gallops) for our biggest bookmaker, showed me the figures because he thought we missed a real opportunity. You believe whatever you want
Didn't suggest you were fudging the figures Kev, just pointing out that it may not have been quite as drastic a result with other agencies.
The TAB tote is a better indicator for race scheduling as much of the corporate pools is made up from people who have done the form before raceday so those corporate pools aren’t as impacted by impulse betting like the TAB tote pools.
Admittedly I was looking at NSW pools for Victoria races and results only go back 12 months but the trend is clear with the Hunter Cup and Vic Cup that people tune out and stop betting after the feature no matter what race is on. Those Vic races stood more a chance as well as the feature was 9.00PM whereas Mile was 9.30PM.
Nighttime harness is a bit different to the gallops, our Get Out Stakes is at 10.30PM and doesn’t attract the same interest as a 5.00PM Get Out Stakes in the gallops.
How would you have scheduled the night Kev? Very interested to hear how it would have been done better.
Don't worry about his understanding of harness pools Breno, he is doing gallops because that is the main game.
The next race their win pool went back into the 40's
170k, 4k, 40k - spot the problem
It was not a scheduling mistake it was a programming mistake
It was a bad idea to have a 2yo race on the card last week
Programming "the process of scheduling something, especially radio or television programmes"Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
So the Let It Ride race still got $40K despite being the shortest priced favourite. He was the shortest priced favourites all night so it is to be expected that pool would be smaller than the earlier features.
The 2yos have to run some time, whether it was two weeks ago or next week they have to run some time and that race will have a small pool whenever it is run. If the issue is running 2yo features at any time of year then that is a completely different subject.