Vic Jan 15 = 61/146 (Maryborough 2/9)
Printable View
Vic Jan 15 = 61/146 (Maryborough 2/9)
Vic Jan 16 = 65/153 (Swan Hill 4/7)
WA
Jan 16 = 55/93 (Bunbury 1/7. 59% re Leader at Bell have gone on to win)
First time under we have been under 60%, thanks to Bunbury.
Vic Jan 17 = 68/161 (Bendigo 3/8)
Vic Jan 18 = 73/169 (Cobram 5/8)
Vic Jan 18 = 75/175 (Cranbourne 2/6)
So far it has been a bit of a revelation IMO for I would have expected 75 leaders winning and 100 losing to be the reverse of that (early days mind you)
Vic Jan 19 = 79/185 (Melton 4/10)
WA
19/6 Pinjarra = 59/102 (4/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win at Pinjarra)
20/6 GP = 65/112 (6/10 Leaders at the Bell went on to win at GP)
WA currently sitting at 58% re Leaders at the bell.
WA
19/6 Busselton = 68/119 (Busselton 3/7 re Leader at the Bell went on to win)
Down to 57%. Excellent race and call re Cup.
Vic Jan 20 = 82/194 (Ballarat 3/9)
Vic Jan 21 = 84/202 (Geelong 2/8)
WA
20/1/24 = 73/126 (Albany 5/7 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)
58% of Leaders at the Bell have won in WA this month.
(Apologies re tardiness)
Vic Jan 22 = 86/211 (Maryborough 2/9)
ps No apology required Daniel
WA
22/1/24 = 74/136 (Pinjarra 4/10 Leaders at the Bell went on to win.
Vic Jan 23 = 91/220 (Melton 5/9)
WA
23/1/24= 78/145 (GP 4/9)
Almost at 50%!
Vic Jan 24 = 95/231 (Mildura 4/11)
Vic Jan 25 = 96/241 (Shep 1/10)
WOW that is only 39.8% of leaders winning
I would never have believed it if I had not kept this record
I am wondering whether what seems like a decrease in Stewart runners has contributed to this for it always seemed to me that they were leading and winning
Maybe my perception that our code is leader dominated was wrong but if I could be bothered doing some historic research, I would be surprised if Melton wasn't
Of course this is only 4 weeks of 52 and even with 40% leaders winning, it is still the position you would want - no other position is winning 40% of the time
But if this continues, it makes picking winners much more of a task than just picking leaders
Vic Jan 26 = 99/249 (Stawell 3/8)
Vic Jan 26 = 102/256 (Cranbourne 3/7)
WA
26/1/24 = 84/154 (GP 6/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)
26/1/24 = 91/162 (Albany 7/8 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)
Currently at 56%. Slightly similar thoughts to Kevin’s comments re lower than expected numbers of leaders winning. Vics have much lower percentages than WA though. At the end of the month I will compile the figures for GP which should be interesting.
Another stat:
The average number of runners in FFA races at GP in 2023 was 7.8. May and June had the lowest number of starters ie May had 16 starters in 3 races and June had 17 starters in 4 races.
Over the course of the year 10/47 FFA races had 5 or less starters. The lowest number was 3 and this occurred in June. In 2023 there were two Pacing Cups so this may have affected the figures. I also did not include the Nullabor as there were only 8 horses who could get a start as opposed to 12 in all others.
Vic Jan 27 = 105/265 (Melton 3/9)
WA
27/1/24= 94/169 (Northam 3/7 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)
WA currently sitting at 56%.
Vic Jan 28 = 108/275 (Maryborough 3/10)
Vic Jan 29 = 111/284 (Melton 3/9)
That is only 39% of Bell Leaders winning
WA
29/1/24 = 96/178 (Pinjarra 2/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)
WA sitting on 54% re Leaders at the Bell. I’m trying to put some spin on this figure to beat the Vics but it’s pretty difficult to come up with anything at this point.
I am surprised however that our figure isn’t higher as well.
WA
30/1/24 = 103/187 (GP 7/9 Leaders at the Bell went on to win)
For the month of Jan 2024, 55% of Leaders at the Bell went on to win in WA.
Vic Jan 30 = 114/294 (Mildura 3/10)
Vic Jan 31 = 117/304 (Geelong 3/10)
Vic 2024 for the month of January 117 races out of 304 were won by the horse leading at the Bell = 38.5%
I will reset for the month of Feb
Be nice to know the difference between GP and Pinjarra.. just for comparison between the track size.
Vic Feb 1 = 5/10 (Shep 5/10)
Vic Feb 2 = 5/18 (Hamilton 0/8)
Vic Feb 2 = 9/28 (Benidgo 4/10)
Vic Feb 3 = 12/38 (Melton 3/10)
< 32% leaders winning in Feb at this early stage
Vic Feb 4 no meetings
Vic Feb 5 = 14/46 (Charlton 2/8)
Vic Feb 6 = 19/57 (Mildura 5/11)
Any old darts player will recognize triple 19, so our percentage is 33.33.%
Vic Feb 7 = 22/64 (Cobram 3/7)
Vic Feb 7 = 25/74 (Ballarat 3/10)
Vic Feb 8 = 30/84 (Bendigo 5/10)
Vic Feb 9 = 33/94 (Bendigo 3/10)
Vic Feb 10 = 38/103 (Cranbourne 5/9)
No calculator needed to see that for Feb so far less than 40% of leaders are winning
Vic Feb 11 = 40/110 (Swan Hill 2/7)
Vic Feb 12 = 42/119 (Maryborough 2/9)