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Brenno,
I take your point re my comments without hard facts to back them up. A good friend of mine works in the breeding game and has access to alot of information, I will see if he can offer anything that I can share.
Some great examples of older mares providing nice horses have been shared so clearly there is a strong case to disprove my comment, which I accept.
Mitch.
Just quickly other horses from the Derby on Sat Night:
Restrepo - 1st foal
Ideal Scott - 2nd foal
Major Post - 3rd foal
Charlie Machsheen - 2nd foal
Others:
Christian Cullen - 2nd foal
Courage Under Fire - 1st foal
Shakamaker - 4th foal
Elsu - 7th foal
Interesting....
Good reading Mitch.
Im not having a go but I love that Miss Jogalong was the 14th foal and Karloo Mick was her 1st foal.
G'day Mitch,
I've long believed much if not all of the 'older mares don't produce as well as younger mares' is man made rather than any natural phenomenon.
Young mares starting off their careers tend to get the best of everything, the best sires, the best feeding, the best of Vet care and all associated attentions etc.
Unless they produce a winner/winners straight away and they keep on producing them...the quality of the sires they're bred to, the feed and the Vet care and so on they receive drops away and they begin an uphill battle of ever increasing difficulty until they reach the point of it being impossible.
Sometimes they can simply be bred to a string of unsuitable sires.
I've done it myself with one mare, something which I am still kicking myself about.
Otherwise, if you get the sires right and keep older mares well fed and well cared for, give them every opportunity with good class sires throughout their breeding life and give them the same level of Vet care as you would a young, successful racemare straight off the track, there's no reason why they can't continue to produce winners & good ones & well into the double digits.
Sometimes it is as simple as a regularly seeing to their feet and their teeth & rugging them up in the cold weather so they hold their condition through Winter. Keep them happy and healthy and they'll keep on going.
We've got a filly in the Sydney APG who's now deceased dam was a 1991 model...this yearling is her 7th living and 10th overall foal, previously having, through no fault of her own, lost 3 foals in a row would you believe...a Bettor's, a Dream Away and a Four Starzzz Shark...and type wise this easily is the best one she has ever had. Maybe it was the old girl's last hurrah? Don't know.
Hi Jaimie,Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple V
You may well be correct however I don't think this is always the case. There are plenty of breeders out there who support their mares with quality stallions right through their breeding career.
In my experience, which is exclusive to thoroughbreds from a breeding perspective, the one factor that I take into consideration with my older mares is stallion fertility. This often means I move away from 1st season sires and look to stallions with good fertility and that are proven. This may not be as a big a factor in Standardbreds given AI.
My own experience in purchasing both thoroughbred and standardbred yearlings also lends to the theory of younger mare, first 4 progeny. Gamechanger was the first foal out of uwin and my best performed gallopers have all been first 4 foals.
At the end of the day I don't think it really matters, it's probably more just a personal preference thing, everyone in this game has their theories and likes/dislikes and they are entitled to do so. I certainly have mine and others on this have theirs.
Good debate regardless....
G'day Mitch,
I do think there may sometimes be a placental/nutritional basis to some of it...that I will happily concede...but as one pretty smart fella who has been in the breeding business a long, long time once said to me "Show me a rule and I'll show you an exception".
There are relatively young mares that have had only 4 or 5 foals that, for various reasons, are already clapped out and buggered and there are old mares that have been lovey doved all of their breeding careers & they seem to defy the ravages of time and multiple births.
Kind of related to this thread is simply the age of a mare. I've never quite been able to work out the line of thinking behind it all however I have seen some people shy away from older mares even though it's very clear that, for whatever reason, they have started their breeding careers later in life & to that point only had a small number of foals. That has really got me beaten.
One thing a mate of mine who was reading this thread and rang me earlier this morning to promptly remind me of is that which he termed as being the generational changes we see in the breed. I thought he made a good case for always going forwards with sires...as in always looking to breed the older broodmares to the younger, up and coming brigade of sires & at the same time not breeding the younger, up and coming mares to the older brigade of sires. That makes a fair bit of sense to me.
I too had long believed that the early foals from a mare were the best options. This was because it was what was told to my by people whose opinion I respected. Over time with more education, I have softened on my attitude towards this because it has become obvious that other factors come into play.
From Equine Genetics & Selection Procedures, very complex reading, comes only one simple tidbit on age as regards breeding;
"Breeding stock that receive proper care may produce over a span of 20 years or so. Some genetically coded traits will be accentuated with age and/or use, such as greying, swayed backs, and breakdown due to faulty conformation. Age might also affect a horse's keeping qualities, but horses receiving the proper care generally remain functional into their twenties."
This fits with most of the other advice I have received over the years about the subject, it is just that some people have passed it on with their own biases added to it!
I often give the advice that yes do your research on the catalogue regarding breeding etc, but go to the sale with the catalogue in your pocket and when you see a horse you like then check the catalogue and if you have not noted anything that says you shouldn't buy it in the catalogue, go with that choice.
Jaimie,
Couldn't agree more the comments about an exception to every rule... This will always be the case.
I think your friends comments about generational changes is true, it just depends how quickly the industry as whole want to make the change and this will be determined by how long they choose to support proven older stallions and colonial stallions vs shuttle stallions from OS.
I'm probably getting off topic here but I would be really keen to get your thoughts on the whole shift toward American/Canadian stallions and their proliferation in the Australian standardbred market, call me a traditionalist but I think the vast majority that stand in australia are overrated/overpriced and we have underrated the value of colonial stallions. My knowledge on standardbred breeding is only very limited given I have much greater experience and knowledge with the TBs hence the question?
Hi Phil,Quote:
Originally Posted by strong persuader
That's the only way to buy a horse from a sale in my opinion. Look at horse first, catalogue second and don't waste your time on x-rays......
[VVV] G'day again Mitch,Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch
I'm generally loathe to concede that they get much right in the breeding arena however I am very much in favour of following the TB model when it comes to initially shuttling the best available sires and then patronising their best locally bred, locally performed sons.
I think we're still a little way off that sort of thing being in full swing but I'm confident it will become more and more common in the future. We've already seen the initial sparks fly with the likes of Christian Cullen and Courage Under Fire. There'll always be a place for shuttle sires however if and when they produce a comparable product to that which is available overseas then I can't see any reason why Breeders in this country should not line up to support it.
On that score, it might come as somewhat of a shock to many people, it certainly did to me, that here in Australia, currently WE DO NOT HAVE A SINGLE BIG $$$$ CLASSIC EVENT FOR 3YO COLTS OVER THE MILE, such a race obviously allowing aspiring sires to race & prove themselves when in against the best around...and with it the opportunity to post a slick time. Instead we ask them to head off on a series of 2300m+ slogs. ????????
If we're going to genuinely aspire to producing our own home-grown sires then we must look to affording them at least some form of opportunity to post comparable juvenile times and have comparable juvenile $.
The duplicity of the Breeders down this way can be a little confusing at times too.
For an imported Sire they'll invariably zero in on the juvenile performances and shun aged efforts...however with a local bred it seems to be all about how they've performed as aged horses on the Grand Circuit????. Buggered if I can work that one out. It makes no sense at all.
Maybe NSWHRC move the Simpson Memorial to a couple of weeks prior to the ABC series, up the prize money to 100k make it a g1 and the watch them fly. I have no doubt we would see some slick times, possibly even see a 3yo break 1.50???Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple V
Not sure if this belong's here, Eliza Park has an offer that if you have a filly foal born from one of the 5 or 6 selected stallions you can breed next season for free.
I'm guessing that thoroughbred breeders are encountering the same problems as standardbred breeders?
I was speaking about this to a well known harness trainer yesterday, what with the disastrous results for fillies at the recent Melbourne APG sales maybe the studs could refund half of your service fee if you get a filly? Or at least some sort of discount......I spoke to 3 biggish players in the breeding game who just will not return with fillies next year. Can't stay in the game if you're making a loss after all....fewer breeders means fewer services for the stallions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starship Captain
just looking at the sydney premium results..
total lots 45
sold lots 23
51 % clearance
dissapointing..
Very dissapointing Lisa. As much as I LOVE horse auctions and sale time, i have often thought it would be much easier if the vendor just put a price on the horse and first in with the necessary amount secured it, a bit like the old "land grab" days. Would make good viewing :cool:
But you're right it's very dissapointing to see those results.
so far.....lot 39 $16,000Quote:
Originally Posted by peteboss4
lot 120 buy back
lot 181 $9,500
lot 277 $82,500 sale topper filly
lot 300 $55,00
lot 427 $70,000 sale topper
If you don't have Matthew Sandbloms mares or Black Magic Woman, Threepence, Colada Hanover, Starry Rainbow or Boldandbeautiful your not going to make a living if your a breeder. Id hate to be in the situation they are in, they would be tearing their hair out if they have any left to tear out. Didn't realise just how disappointing last nights sale was till i had a good look.
I believe it's not just contained to our yearling sales, people in this country are simply not spending their money at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by peteboss4
Sales are flat or going backwards in just about every avenue.
There are a million experts out there that will tell you it's this or it's that and I'm not one of them, but I would hope most people would realise our game is not immune to these trends.
http://www.patricianpark.com.au/?p=919&utm
This picture is one of the best I have seen of a yearling this year.
Fair enough Dan & I understand where you are coming from but I'm talking harness racing only & seriously its getting worse. Someone used the word 'evaporating' not that long ago, I think he may be right...... how can these guys make a living, it can not be easy. More & more will leave because of this & everything else thats going on. Victorian results were 76% compared to our 51%. Even though other states are finding it hard NSW should be declared a disaster zone & marshall law employed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
I hear you Pete, the differences in the percentage of yearlings passed in is quite staggering and yes I know the current integrity issues facing NSW will definitley have had some degree of impact, but other factors such as the big prizemoney increases should have negated some of that, one would hope. Having said that, there is no doubt it will take quite some time for the negative effects of the "pay to play" scheme to be behind us, not to mention the recent littany of drug related charges going around.Quote:
Originally Posted by peteboss4
To be completely honest, if I were a person trying to make a living off this game I reckon I would have thrown the sponge in at some time over the last six months, there has always been a few shonks in the game but at the moment it seems that if your not a bit shonky then get used to racing for second prizemoney, and please everyone this is not a shot at everyone who's won a race recently, just the cheats and they know who they are.
Cheers,
Dan.
The sales have been a total disaster for breeders and I expect there will be carnage within the industry as a result. If you take the results of the Sunday sale in Melbourne, the average price was $11,964. That constitutes a loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by peteboss4
Breaking the results down further
111 (55%) sold for less than $10k - (absolute disaster)
41 (20%) sold for less than $15k - (in almost all cases that would be a loss)
25 (12%) sold for less than $20k - (small profit or loss depending upon service fee)
26 (12%) sold for less than 30k - (in most cases a small profit depending upon service fee)
4 (2%) sold for more than $30k - (a good result for the vendors of these 4 lots)
The figures are flattering because they include buy backs, so 32% of those results would not have been achieved at all. I excluded the $80k top priced buyback from the figures.
Looking at fillies in isolation,
21 failed to draw a bid
43 sold for less than $10k
12 sold for less than $15k
7 sold for less than $20k
4 sold for less than $30k
1 sold for more than $30k
After looking at the service fees of the top 12 fillies, I would suggest that there were only 2 fillies in the whole sale that produced a good profit to their vendors.
73% fall into the category of absolute disaster (<$10k).
Yes i would have left too & probably will .I have always enjoyed the sport but not so much now. Went back & had a look there has been 23 positives in a relative short period , we have EPO,Meth, arsenic, bute,testosterone (that's a steroid),ibuprofen,& your good old bicarb etc. Its a disgrace & do any of these cheats care who they are ripping off.......NO, THEY DO NOT...You have guys with POSITIVES racing in Hunter Cups & Interdoms.... that in itself is WRONG.......You have guys listed on the O'Toole charge sheet STILL winning races......these grubs run this sport, NOT the stewards or the CEO..... Sam needs to step up and put into place lengthy sentences for cheats & stick to it....eg 12 mts bi carb, 5years anything else as there is no real DESCENT penalty for these cheats. ALSO THESE CASES NEED TO BE DELT WITH QUICKLY. And mark my words some named in the O'Toole case will get away with it! Things need to change NOW before its too late. Obviously I'm Pissed off big time!Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
Thank's for the break down of the sale Trevor, I hope Sydney and Perth are much better for the breeder's.
Dan & Pete,
Warren Buffet said to tell you both to get to Sydney asap and then too Perth with your cheque book's open:)
Exactly how much of the blame can be put on the current scandle for the sale price's? Million dollar question
Jason your smarted that your last sentance, Surely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starship Captain
The reference to Buffet was just my view on when to buy and the rest of the post was ok IMO.
No worriesQuote:
Originally Posted by Starship Captain
Cheers
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliteblood
Feel bad for all you guys trying to make a living out of this game.....its more than sad to see the industry going down like the Titanic
agree..spotted this one a while back
wouldn't mind taking him home.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starship Captain
Sydney sales.
The results are in and that guy who said 'even the yearling sales will cop a hiding this year' in another post (domination post) was spot on.
Terrible sale.
Sure was. I have attended every single Sydney APG since the inception of the Series, since way back when George Aiken did all the work with Carlton & United to get the series $$$ backed and up & running and I first sold one at the 2nd APG Sale ever held.
In all that time I have NEVER seen such a tough marketplace.
If we were only to take basic production costs taken into account it reveals that the vast majority of the Vendors out there at Randwick yesterday have effectively paid someone to take their yearling. Even if you went Service Fee out as far as an initial cost was concerned, most Vendors would not have made even the most marginal of profits even if they had received said Service Fee for free.
A number of negative factors converged & combined yesterday to create more bloodshed than you'd see on the Killing Floor of Roger Fletcher's Abattoir at Dubbo.
In no particularly order of importance and more than likely not limited to, I think they are...
(1) Fillies/Mares Only racing opportunities at starvation levels. (eg. 2yo fillies with 9/14 from 66 from a little over a week ago until March 31st).
(2) Corruption in NSW still not completely dealt with.
(3) Service fees & associated breeding costs now at unsustainable levels.
(4) Generally poor economic conditions...ask most people in small business how they're travelling.
Once I manage to collect my thoughts and line up on the shortfalls of various bodies & individuals I'll post accordingly. Right now, I'm still stunned after yesterday. As a good mate of mine said to me on Sunday while 20m away in the ring another Vendor was led to the slaughter "This will kill off the last of the true believers". Couldn't have said it better.
I'm going blue waiting with baited breath to see how our sales go.
Putting my first yearling into the sales (Chch day 1) on behalf of my American stable clients. They may be up in the wee small hours wondering if they picked the right year to start selling at the sales. I'm sure though that they wil never believe it could be as bad as they experienced on their visit to Chch's sale last year.
It was a very tough day for all concerned on sunday, i sold one and i will go close to breaking even but in saying that there was nothing wrong with the filly but looking at the previous sale's over the last 10 day's i valued her at $8k - $10k so i was happy with $9k if i wasn't i would of brought her back. Buyer's are being a lot more selective compared to previous years. It would be interesting to know how many breeders walked away after sunday thinking i'm not breeding or selling any more when you can buy them cheap and without all the risks of having to get a mare in foal and rear it to the sale stage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mango
Dallas,Quote:
(1) Fillies/Mares Only racing opportunities at starvation levels. (eg. 2yo fillies with 9/14 from 66 from a little over a week ago until March 31st).
(2) Corruption in NSW still not completely dealt with.
(3) Service fees & associated breeding costs now at unsustainable levels.
(4) Generally poor economic conditions...ask most people in small business how they're travelling.
as much as I have disagreed with Triple on a number of subjects I reckon the factors he has quoted should all be given serious consideration by all industry stakeholders.
The yearling sales results have for many observers, been a " barometer" of the industry's health..I'm not saying the only barometer, but one that certainly indicates market confidence.If used as such the recent sales results could be interpretted to display a more significant nose dive in NSW in particular!
Some of the the factors for this are not to find, they are staring us in the face..."pay to play"...the dominance of a couple of stables and the perception that something funny is going on. Like it or not that is the perception of many people in the game, whether it's right or not.
Hence this overall perception that the game is riddled with corruption is erroding confidence and this flows to the market indicators such as the yearling sales.
Anyone who has some desire to breed, even just for their own use, ( and that's a large slice of the breeders in NSW) will agree the opportunities for female only racing in NSW and probably across AUS and NZ are inadequate. Where would womens tennis and golf be if the girls had to compete against the boys at all the Majors?
As triple mentioned the service fees of many stallions is out of step with the available prizemoney and some are downright ridiculous if you wanted to breed one to keep! Some of the higher end stallions service fees could only be considered if you are selling the product and if everyone else thats got one by the same horse does the same thing then you've got a market flooded with the progeny of this particular stallion and whats going to happen to the price when there are more yearlings than buyers?
I've mentioned the current economic climate already, people are just not spending their money, and who knows why, there are many opinions out there and I'm sure there are a few I haven't heard yet as well, but until this turns around our "game" is going to feel the pressure just like eveyone else.
Better time ahead Dallas, we just have to wait unfortunately.
Cheers,
Dan
For years I have said that the property boom and inflated housing prices would eventually lead to banks taking in a larger slice of people's incomes which would then deplete the amount of disposable income people have for other 'luxury' items.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
I think it's just symptoms of 'now' thinking, availability of credit, and poor govt tax policy.
Hey Barry,Quote:
Originally Posted by little fish
Ever wanted a job at the RBA?
Hi Dan
There will be better time's ahead and i was happy with the price i got for my filly, people are already saying they are cutting back on breeding but i'm going the opposite way i will be breeding another 3 mare's this year to the best i can afford and then hopefully onto the yearling sale's and if they don't sell i'll just take them home and race. As i was a buyer on friday night i got a nice filly at a very good price which was under what i valued her as and then when speaking to the breeder i was told there was 2 people waiting at the gait for me as i stole her so i seen both side's as a breeder/buyer. It's a very tough game the breeding side of thing's.There is also an option that if you don't get your asking price for your yearling take it home and get it ready for the Ready to Run sale which i think is a great idea. Aussies have been going to the RTR sale in n.z for years now and spending up and now they have the chance to buy here with horses paid up for the A.P.G and other local race's.
As supply will probably decrease (this is general consensus that some breeders won't be back), fingers crossed for you you can get a nice price next year - which given general consensus you should. I'd imagine demand will increase as well (we are at rock bottom right now) - lessened supply, increased demand = happy times.Quote:
Originally Posted by mango
Just getting some positive thinking into this thread.
G'Day Dallas,Quote:
Originally Posted by mango
I noticed the Mach Three filly you stole! I believe you're on the money with the future Dallas, the disastrous sales results will not, I believe compound year after year and if we haven't seen the backend of some of the influencing issues by then I'll be dissappointed like many others.
We've only ever bred them for ourselves and that gets hard enough with all the pitfalls, you think you've seen them all and then along comes a new one...like they say, if it was easy everyone could/would do it.
The more options for vendors and buyers alike can only be good for the game and,a s you say the ready to run sale is a great option to have, these have been tried in the past with varying success, lets hope the current model gets some traction.
Cheers,
Dan