Victoria Cup

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Originally Posted by G-Mac

Ron's going to love this barrier draw!

Hi Glen, not sure if you meant me but I'm speechless........ Vic 1-5

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Originally Posted by HaroldParker

Mah Sish gets a start over Abettorpunt ? that's stunning.

Having had the odd conversation with a Handicapper or two and various administrators, I'm convinced now more than ever that the majority of them are clueless when it comes to form.

I thought the mob in NSW were bad : )

If you are right, which i think you are not, i will change my name to Harold Bishop and marry Madge Ramsay :P

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Originally Posted by Toohard

Up the top left corner (see pic attached)... Or click on "Dont have an account?".

Cheers

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Originally Posted by Big Mac

When you go to harnessweb you need to register to get info.

I'm now registered thanks for your help.

Bob just curious what would your trifecta pay for Bitobliss, Smoken Up, Christen Me?

The barrier has definetly shaped it up to be one mighty race. The biggest winner at the draw has gotta be Bitobliss now he just needs to bring his A game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by littlelenny

Bob just curious what would your trifecta pay for Bitobliss, Smoken Up, Christen Me?

The barrier has definetly shaped it up to be one mighty race. The biggest winner at the draw has gotta be Bitobliss now he just needs to bring his A game.

Hey Lenny, I think all 3 are a lay ... so 3500-1 : )

Bitobliss has no option but to protect the inside at all costs. I think The Gold Ace is the immediate threat early, more so than Smoken Up. Either way I don't see him burning the candle at both ends.

Christen Me is way under the odds. I wasn't as taken with his Mile run as everyone else on the planet. Well not enough to take $5 from that draw on the back of it. He did nothing early, got up there comfortably in a race that turned into a 400m (26.2) dash up the straight.

For A Reason touched $15 today, $4.50 a place. That's incredible value. Luke McCarthy is the best big race driver in Australasia. He'll give the horse every chance. I love the $7.50 a place on offer for Terrorway. I'll nibble away at the 25-1.

Okay Bob, So your tip is For a Reason in the Cup, is that correct?? You have made some good points, there's a bit of value in the wider market which is always good. Now you have to come up with 3 more tips for the night and the big trotting race has to be included. This is a great chance to earn bragging rights and maybe knock off the wily veteran from the Hunter Valley(lol) Good luck

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Originally Posted by Mighty Atom

Hi Glen, not sure if you meant me but I'm speechless........ Vic 1-5

I did mean you Rod. My apologies.

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Originally Posted by aussiebreno

I'll give you 8 -1 about Trigger?

Great race, can't wait.

Just a couple things on early odds.

Restrepo a definite winning chance but too short for mine. I had him $6.50. TAB got $4 fav. If does get lead, will have Trigger putting pressure. Won't get easy time of things and you'd think one of Beautide, Christen Me or FAR can get a nice cart up and run past him if enough pressure is put on. If he ends up running line with the amount of moves he will be on level playing field with Beautide, Christen Me and FAR so to take $4 just too short. Plus if Restepo in running line it means Bitobliss getting a charmed run.

Smoken Up too short. $6 is crazy after being comfortably ran down by 4 horses in the Miracle Mile that all line up here. A) Will have more pressure on this race if he does lead and B) If he death seats its a tougher run than Menangle and he couldn't win there.

Carribean Blaster too short at $9. I was on him when he won last year but don't think he is going quite as well this year. He did make some ground 3 wide in a 26.7 third quarter at Cranbourne so had excuses but he never looked like challenging. Just sort of ran on ok. Good draw on paper is irrelevant, won't be challenging for early lead because it will do a Blucolla Tigerpie in the Trueur, will end up 1-1 or 1-2. So will either get stuck in the running line a lap out or have to head the three wide line last week, and not sure how he go giving Beautide, Christen Me or FAR a cart into it. They peel off his back and catch ya later.

Bitobliss overs. I had him at $4.50 but got $7. He has never brought his best to the big stage but we know his times around Melton and the way he does it put him up there with the best. The 1.55.4 effort three wide from the tail 4 starts back wins this from the draw. The Kilmore run was one of his common WTF runs before he was never in the race the Legends. He ran on great last time out and from the draw. Trials seem to be ticking on ok. He usually sits out of the early speed battles but thats due to not getting draws, so not sure how he will go if an early speed battles arises but willing to take punt at $7.

I think with no Blacks a Fake, Smoken Up at his best from 2-5 seasons ago, or ITMQ there isn't a horse in Aust that can win from anywhere at this level and you back confidently from any draw. Maybe Beautide can, but not willing to take $5.50 when he is untested at anything other than a mile at this standard. Christen Me was looking like he would become that horse 6-12 months ago but doesn't seem to have progressed to that point yet. With this in mind is why I have settled on Bitobliss, I think a good run will be crucial in determining the winner in such an even field and from that draw he has the best chance at getting the best run in the race.

Got two things wrong, otherwise I was spot on but one of those two things was overrating Bitobliss and a hefty loss at end of day! The other thing I got a tad wrong was Carribean Blaster, but would have been happy to see him win it. Big run! Big run from Gold Ace as well. Beautide and Christen Me desperately unlucky, Terrorway just lost FAR back and those two just couldn't get into the race, never a chance. The best run and drive won it, well done FAR. Too good for em. Big achievement to go from top juvenile to stud to this!

Agree Breno, Great win by For a Reason and congratulations to the winning connections. It's astonishing to think that a horse could come back from a career ending injury and be able to compete and win at this level, it tells you a lot about the individual's guts and will to win. I will definitely be sending my No1 mare to him when he resumes his stud duties. Great to see Carribean Blaster back near his very best and Christen Me and Beautide must have run low 26's in their last quarter. Christen Me has certainly put any doubts about his ability to compete at this level to rest forever. Habibti went terrific last night in the Dullard and then to finish off a great nights racing, Blitzthemcalder gave the leader a huge start and bolted in. There's going to be some great clashes in the trotting races between these 2 in the future.

Congratulations to FAR, CB & CM. Now tell me, has Smoken Up simply had enough of racing due to his age, or did something happen to him last night? He just stopped! Will Lance take him to SA after that run?
I hope he is ok health wise and gives the SA cup one last crack! I absolutely love Trigger :)

did anyone clock christen me last 800?

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Originally Posted by Shannon

did anyone clock christen me last 800?

No point. Whatever it was will undersell him given got dragged back a length and lost momentum, was wide, and still had petrol in the tank!

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Originally Posted by Smoken

Congratulations to FAR, CB & CM. Now tell me, has Smoken Up simply had enough of racing due to his age, or did something happen to him last night? He just stopped! Will Lance take him to SA after that run?
I hope he is ok health wise and gives the SA cup one last crack! I absolutely love Trigger :)

Smoken Up went to war with Lance Justice' ego and the latter won convincingly. He was carved up.

The race panned out exactly as expected. For A Reason looked the winner a long way out. $15 for a horse of his caliber with Australasia's best big race driver aboard was a gift.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smoken

Congratulations to FAR, CB & CM. Now tell me, has Smoken Up simply had enough of racing due to his age, or did something happen to him last night? He just stopped! Will Lance take him to SA after that run?
I hope he is ok health wise and gives the SA cup one last crack! I absolutely love Trigger :)

Yes, something did happen to him last night, he was crucified.
As if Gold Ace was gonna give up the lead after leading and winning at Cranbourne!
Crazy. Sad really...
Hopefully he has a freshen up, goes to SA and wins and then is retired on a high.

Just read stewards comments

pre race swab, gate speed, hung in, outside leader at bell, pulled hard, vets examination after race, quer driving tactics

Hope the Champ wins his 5th S.A Cup as well :)

Bitobliss outclassed. Very disappointing given his cushy run.
Wartime Sweetheart, "won" it's way in, shouldn't have been in in my opinion.
Caribbean Blaster, awesome, massive run. Great summer coming up.
Restrepo carried back by Trigger lost momentum was coming again.
Smoken Up, shoulda sat quiet in the death, I reckon Lance regrets his decision to challenge so hard.
I'm Victorious, was out the back, making a run on home turn, got squeezed by Terrorway who hung in, Johhny McC gave IV a nice elbow and put him off balance, looks like he ran into Restrepos wheel, galloped.
The Gold Ace, top run, he's definitely a new horse in the McCarthy stable.
Mah Sish, Anthony says not himself, correct.
For A Reason, super drive great victory.
Terrorway, ok for him, I think 2200m too short for him against these, was coming home ok after home turn bump and driver suspended. Another 200-400m and he's a better horse I reckon.
Beautide, great last 400 would have been quick, simply too far back
Christen Me, my run of the race. at the 400 was looking at the back of Rattrays helmet and beat him to the finish, super. If he wasn't 4-5 wide on the turn and of course closer, he wins hands down.

Looking at the replay a few times over, I have to agree that the drive was madness.. If it was 2-5 years ago then Trigger could have handled it, but now that he is 11 not a wise move!
Very disappointing! Bitobliss went shocking! Seems to run a few good races a season and that's it.

Agree with Bob's comment, That was a crazy dive and Lance gave Smoken Up zero chance off winning the race by attacking The Gold Ace instead of just sitting in the breeze quietly and attacking a bit closer to the home turn. We have spoken for a little while now how SU will struggle against these horses coming through, FAR,CM and Beautide etc and last night really confirmed that. The nice big lush paddock awaits SU now and good luck to him if he is well enough to compete in the SA Cup but can't really seeing him worrying these other horses now. PS: congrats in tipping FAR Bob, that's a nice little Xmas bonus.

FOR A REASON last 800 54.36 last 400 26.84 LAST MILE 1:53.32
CHRISTEN ME 53.95!!!!!!! 26.32 1:52.7
BEAUTIDE 54.26 26.61 1:53.12
TERRORWAY 54.92 27.25 1:53.80

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maorisidol

FOR A REASON last 800 54.36 last 400 26.84 LAST MILE 1:53.32
CHRISTEN ME 53.95!!!!!!! 26.32 1:52.7
BEAUTIDE 54.26 26.61 1:53.12
TERRORWAY 54.92 27.25 1:53.80

Similarities wuth ITMQ and Christen Me starting to appear!

He'll Yeh, Those 4 last quarters are motoring and Terrorway checked Im Victorious so his would have been a little quicker you would think.