With his eye for pedigrees, Ray has posted me that half the field is NZ bred with In The Pocket being a major factor. ITP is the grandsire of 4 runners, the grandgrandsire of another, and the broodmare sire of another.
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With his eye for pedigrees, Ray has posted me that half the field is NZ bred with In The Pocket being a major factor. ITP is the grandsire of 4 runners, the grandgrandsire of another, and the broodmare sire of another.
I agree Katie - he is clear 2nd pick and his draw advantage over Hector could be tellingQuote:
Originally Posted by KTQ
Pat,go back and have a look at the 2013 and 2014 ID finals. 2013 field the only four worth mentioning apart from the winner ITMQ who treated them with contempt were Terror to Love ( hardly ever performed in Australia), Ma Sish (just) Washakie, Caribbean Blaster ( perhaps) the rest forgettable. 2014 ID final apart from the winner Beautide remind me who was second Seel n Print (LOL). The 2012 Inters final in Perth at least Had I'm Themightyquinn, Mr Feelgood, Smoken Up, Auckland Reactor. Final result WA horses 1,2 and 3. So your argument falls somewhat flat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
Since when has an Interdominion Final field consisted of the very best horses available at a given time, you have to go back many years to find that. Christen Me, Arden Rooney and Have Faith In Me as Pat mentioned, are either injured or under-performing. I'm stating what I have said before don't send your horses from the east over here and expect wonders unless they can perform, at least Queensland learnt their lesson from last years ID. Rather straight forward I would have thought.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maorisidol
I cannot believe that a horse that pulled up sore in both front legs would be even contemplating a run in a gruelling 2900 metre race. Stepping up from 2536 metres to 2900 metres in a week would be inviting catastrophe.
Lennys "injury" was an abscess, as quoted by Shane Tritton on Twitter recently, "an abscess is an ON off type injury" with other Trainers stating how they have had an abscess burst on RACEDAY morning and they won that night...so not necessarily an inevitable catastrophe...Quote:
Originally Posted by Mighty Atom
Rod, I am not sure how my argument falls flat. 2012 was a strong interdom field and people came to watch those horses who were actually TOP horses but this field would not turn the average citizens head in any way shape or form. It is more like a Ballarat cup or strong FFA race at Menangle. What person who doesn't follow racing is going to show up and pay to watch this field unless it is a fireworks night which no doubt it will be. I cant comprehend how anyone would think that this is a top Interdom field. This also goes back to why people don't go to the races, one of the reasons is that there are no out and out stars which will attract people to the races. Lenny the Shark is the only one that really stands out.
Adding to the above, The first inter that Beautide won (2014) had 6 millionaires in it and two of those had won 2 million. Lets start getting serious here.
A lot out as you mention but it is stronger than last years final.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
Hector to get 1-1 from John of Arc? Run Oneover naturally and with John of Arc in the death the speed will be on. In this class as we've seen in the heats the speed will still be on 1200 - 400m so those behind Hector won't be able to get in the race (Smolda and Lenny not going good enough anyway) and he will pop out when he wants and be too good for Run Oneover who should hang on for 2nd. John of Arc should drop off enough to let Bling get out and run 3rd. If Lenny is in the race Boaz will have to come round every horse to finish 4th. If Lenny is scratched Boaz becomes a chance at a place. If Boaz drew better he wins or cert to place. He will win the series next year.
F4 with Lenny in the race. 9 - 2 - 1 - 10
F4 with no Lenny. 9 - 1,10 - 1,2,10 - 1,2,10
Yes, it is a tad stronger than last years field which was ordinary,Hector will have to be travelling pretty well to win this one and I think he will win from Run Oneover
How about the 'pedigree experts' explaining Our Jericho's success in making the ID Final to us :)
Here is a horse that is by a skewbald stallion that could only manage 1 2nd from his 6 lifetime starts and has only sired 3 winners from 38 foals.
Even though he is now being raced by millionaires, I'll wager he has made some smalltime breeder very happy along the way!
Come on Phil, you know that not every Olympian has athletes for parents. There are plenty of sources of talent in his pedigree. Maybe Tomahawk is a poor man's Sovereign Adios whom having sired one good one from his first crop will see his popularity rise again but never sire another good one ;)
It is 20yrs since another fish looked down and only an outside chance of defending his title
Hi Pat,Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
More like a Ballarat Cup/FFA race at Menangle can't let that one go through to the keeper. From what I've seen going around at Menangle each week nothing much going on there. In my opinion this ID final is stronger than the 2016 Hunter Cup let alone the Ballarat Cup. You have the two current best horses in Australia Hector and Lenny, Smolda, the favourite and winner of the Hunter Cup. Close to the best horse in NSW Bling It On and WA's two best Run Oneover and Beaudiene Boaz - better field than the Hunter Cup. On a footnote we all know which horse should have won the HC WA's My Hard Copy, badly held up on the home turn flew home to run third.
IMO , PATHETIC prizemony for consolation of Inter at $35 thou.
That is dreadful Trish. $75k the same as the heats should have been the minimum
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
But why?
Last placegetter in Inter Dom Grand Final should receive more than winner of Consolation in my view. The goal is to make the final, and all Grand Final qualifiers should be rewarded more than any horse in Consolation -- because every one of them is finishing higher than any Consolation horse in the series.
The way it is last placegetter in Grand Final gets $1k less than Consolation winner I believe. I like where they've moved the conditions this year.
Good point Cody - you have swayed me. My thinking was that these horses have not come over here to compete in 35k races but then again that (sadly) is Gp2 equivalent prizemoney
True.Quote:
Originally Posted by codywinnell
I remember Abettorpunt getting $60K for winnning the Bohemia Crystal at Menangle on Interdom day. Pretty much same as 3rd in the final.
This thorough answer has been sent to me Phil, I trust you will enjoy itQuote:
Originally Posted by strong persuader
"Don't know what the formal qualifications of a "pedigree expert" are but here are my suggestions as to why Our Jerichos performance exceed what most people would expect from his ( immediate ) pedigree.
Whilst Tesio never actually revealed what he looked for in selecting matings subsequent analysis of the pedigrees of the champions he bred showed that they all exhibited sex balanced line breeding to superior siblings usually in generations 4 to 8 but often with further reinforcements even further back.
Looking for Tesios principles in Our Jerichos pedigree shows that like many of the New Zealand stock he has multiples of Scotland and his sister Rose Scot. More specifically Christjan Cullen has Knight Dream and his sister Marjorie Armstrong in his pedigree and many of his better stock have multiples of Knight Dream and his sire Nibble Hanover in their dams. Whilst Tomahawk doesn't appear to be one of his better ones ( though lack of success on the track isn't definative proof of lack of ability ) he also multiplies the Knight Dream influences frequently found in the better performed CC's, and no doubt in some lesser performed ones too
Our Jerichos dam is by Deal Direct who also adds more Knight Dream and his second dam is by Timely Knight who is a son of Sweet Dream who is a full sister to Knight Dream, thus Our Jerichos pedigree exhibits the Tesio principles of reinforced line breeding to superior siblings.
For those who follow Tesio principles what further adds to the potential potency of Our Jerichos pedigree in addition to the Knight Dream and his siblings is that Timely Knight is by Good Time and that Good Time over Knight Dream is repeated several times, and in one instance a son of Good Time over Knight Dream throughout Our Jericho, so the pedigree has multiples of near genetic siblings as well as actual siblings.
I don't think there has been any actuall statistical analysis on the position of a common ancestor on the sire line in stbs in general or on Direct Scooter in particular, but analysis from TBs indicate that the 4x3 position for a common ancestor on the sire line is quite favourable for performance and it's not unreasonable to think that that would hold true for stbs as well. Of course the analysis does pertain to sires who are considered superior sires and would probably not give the same results for inferior sires.
Of course Tesio principles are unproven science and correlation does not automatically mean causation so Our Jericho's apparent ability above what his immediate pedigree would suggest could simply be the result of the laws of genetic variation. "
I can't see Lenny winning the final if he has missed work. If he does then he must really be special !
3 runs last week and 7 days between runs. I don't think he is going quite as well as he has been past 18 months so can't see him winning but don't think missing work will be much of a factor.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutwagon
Love it....Genetic variation, but the rest of it I could not follow..:)
Rod, the two WA horses should give their owners some value in the final. My hard copy is another horse missing from the InterDom as well. I am not sure what his future holds.
Lenny the Shark must be a chance if he races without injury, he has done nothing wrong in the heats.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gutwagon
This is the honest truth.........my dad in his later years had nominated two horses in the days when you had them sent to you...yes a long time ago! but he forgot he had done so. Any way race day comes & my friend Mark goes down to get the horses because they are in the fields , he gets to
my dads place , my dad said Mark what are you doing here & he said Joe your two horses are racing today , my dad said ....bugger it , I haven't worked them for 10 days Mark , he thought for about 10 seconds & said oh they will be right you can not lose fitness in 10 days.....low & behold the first one ran 2nd after being flattened at the start & the 2nd one broke the track record winning easily .Reckon Lenny should be fine. Good luck to all in Final & consolation.
Can only talk for human fitness but the idea is called tapering. Taper off your training in the week or two leading up to a big race for best results.Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
A look at the sire lines shows that the predictions of 20 or so years ago that Meadow Skipper blood had saturated the breeding of pacers and backed breeders into a corner has not eventuated.
Who would have thought that the dominant sire-line in this field is the Direct Scooter line?
And all 6 are sired by sons or grandsons of the Direct Scooter import In The Pocket
The 12 in the field, including emergencies are:
Direct Scooter: (6) ..Volomite sireline
Run One Over... Changeover/In The Pocket/ Direct Scooter
Our Jerico ... Tomahawk/Christian Cullen/In the Pocket/Direct Scooter
John of Ark... Courage Under Fire/In The Pocket/Direct Scooter
France Nelson... Christian Cullen/In The Pocket/Direct Scooter
Smolda... Courage Under Fire/In The Pocket/Direct Scooter
The Bucket List ... Christian Cullen/In The Pocket/Direct Scooter
No No Nukes: (3) ..Meadow Skipper sireline
Our Jimmy Johnson... PForty Seven/The Panderosa/Western Hanover/No Nukes
Bling It On ... American Ideal/Western Ideal/Western Hanover/No Nukes
Beaudine Boaz ... Badlands Hanover/Western Hanover/No Nukes
Cam Fella: (2)... Meadow Skipper sireline
Bettors Fire... Bettors Delight/Cams Card Shark/Cam Fella
Lennytheshark... Four Starzz Shark/Cams Card Shark/Cam Fella
Abercrombie: (1)... Adios sireline
Hector Jayjay... Dream Away/Artsplace/Abercrombie
As an aside: The turnaround to Direct Scooter blood continues with the success of the Matt Scooter son Mach Three and his amazing son Somebeaachsomewhere...and the promise of Auckland Reactor.
As I mentioned in an earlier post - I am calling it the In The Pocket dominance Noel
Lenny's vet inspection is today - hopefully the results will be known soon
I don't suppose you could sack your own son for Chris Alford
Nice one Kev, but a real bummer that the shark is out
Has Josh put a foot wrong on Hector? Really Kev??Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Thank god they didn't kick Chris Lewis of Carclew :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHK6jBiDq6U
Before this series he has. This series has just been a sit and steer job.Quote:
Originally Posted by arlington
If Lenny was out of the series 6 months ago no doubt Alford would have been asked for the drive on Hector.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
We're talking about Josh's drives on Hector, condemned for the 2nd at Yarra Glen? Even Kev thought the odds were against him. What did you think of Chris's drive on Lenny last week? From this draw maybe Chris is thinking "phew TGIF I'm not on Hector".
All the best to all the competitors, hope it's a great, clean race, whoever is the victor.
Pedigree experts was tongue in cheek, because anyone who thinks they have solved that riddle should consider booking themselves into an asylum. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
I think finding reasons for Our Jericho's success would be endless and fruitless, because you could replicate it a dozen times without getting near the same result!
It is just great that a horse like this comes along from time to time to renew the faith that good horses can come from anywhere.
Johnathon Thurston, Gary Ablett, Andrew Johns, Wayne Carey, Chris Alford. Doesn't matter how good the other blokes are going you pick those 5 names first.Quote:
Originally Posted by arlington
But the owners didn't(?). The Inter Dom is exempt from loyalty, having faith in and living the dream?Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
From a betting perspective what odds Hector J Aiken v C Alford? Punting v value? Often amazes me how the less accomplished drivers get bagged, often for no good reason but "we" complain about short prices.
Not sure if C Alford didn't quote Herve Fillon somewhere recently. Something along the lines of "as drivers we get over acknowledged for the wins on great horses and bagged for the drives on poor horses".
Still shaking my head at The Gauch getting dragged from El Segundo.
I take your point Wayne and I would never have kicked MP off Prince of Penzance so if Josh has the same sort of relationship with Hector it is a no brainer, otherwise I just feel Chris has the runs on the board and a personna that says "Don't even think about it"Quote:
Originally Posted by arlington
The owners put Gavin Lang on before Josh. If Chris wasn't tied up with Lenny he may have even got the look in before G Lang.Quote:
Originally Posted by arlington