Agree that something doesn't sound right. Lot 39 Art Major x The Good Times sold for $50,000 to Emma Stewart. More indicative of the value of Larrakeyah Lady's familyQuote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
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Agree that something doesn't sound right. Lot 39 Art Major x The Good Times sold for $50,000 to Emma Stewart. More indicative of the value of Larrakeyah Lady's familyQuote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
I cannot read ! :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Hermione
Reviewing the results
Showing 145/186 sold so that is 78%
http://www.harnesslink.com/Australia...rage-increased
The sales averages increased.
There is one mistake in the article - the top filly Lot 117 went for $85k
We all know it is not a given that your horse will make it to the track much less win a race but I was wondering about the APG success rate
so with their excellent site, I was able to do a little research - yep Kev with too much time on his hands again
I chose last season 2015-16 and honed in on the 3yo's as most would hope that their purchase would have won before turning 4yo
I took out the Sales withdrawals and on my count there were 438 lots that went through the sales at Melbourne (2 sales), Brisbane and Sydney
128 of them won at least one race as a 3yo which is very close to 30%
So if you were wondering - there you go ;)
There of course could be a few lots that won as 2yo's that did not race/win as 3yo's but I have not got so much time that I want to skim through another 20 pages for the previous season
ps The Sydney catalogue is now available online
http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sa...-online-guide/
Does anyone think the Sydney Catalogue is stronger than the Melbourne sale?
A lot less Art Major and Bettors delight representation that's for sure although a lot larger representation of Mach 3.
I have to get back to looking at it and have only covered a quarter of it - being the fillies in the first 100 lots
BUT I thought they seemed much weaker than the Melb offering (25% of catalogue is probably too early to judge)
I must have been in a daze when I was looking at the first half of the fillies Pat. Having looked at the second half, I went back and looked at the first half again and realized they were much stronger than I thought
http://www.harness.org.au/news-artic...?news_id=32701
$245k
The top filly went for $90k
http://www.apgold.com.au/yearling-sa...esults/sydney/
(I'm in Tassie for 6wks - keep posting everyone)
Flicking through the Sydney results, couldn't help but notice Faye Wisbey picking up a couple of fillies. I wonder if Faye can still remember the day the auctioneer's hammer fell on Koala King.
Sensational APG Sydney Sale results
26 February 2017 | APG Media
http://www.harness.org.au/news/images/main/11919.jpg APG Sydney Lot 259 Photo by STUART McCORMICK
JUST like last night’s Miracle Mile meeting, the competition was fast and furious during today’s Ladbrokes Australian Pacing Gold Sale.
With a terrific overall clearance rate, the colts were in particular high demand, with three breaking six figures and several falling just short.
The highest priced lot of the day was 368 – a colt by Bettors Delight from Lady Euthenia - which attracted a national record bid of $245,000.
A break down reveals the colts sold for an average of $28,728, an increase from last year’s $27,233, while the fillies attracted an average of $18,611 this time around.
Pleased with the figures, APG’s General Manager David Boydell stated the bids reflected the quality of the stock on offer throughout the afternoon.
“This year’s sale had so many outstanding types go through the ring, which led to some spirited bidding,” Boydell said. “To have the average for both colts and fillies increase from last year is a very pleasing result for all involved.”
As mentioned, the top colt was a record purchase for Tasmanian owner Mick Maxfield, while the leading filly was Lot 259 secured by Justin Baker for $90,000.
By boom stallion Somebeachsomewhere, the flashy maiden is from Very Chic, which comes from a family littered with winners.
The top seller certainly boosts the average up. can anyone tell me if the 26% of horses that were passed in are taken into account ???
Good post trish. I have queried the accuracy of this article with HRA who wanted nothing to do with it and handballed it over to David Boydell who claimed he had nothing to do with the article as well (go figure) but supplied me with information which should be published and other data including the passed in lots you have mentioned. Fillies did not increase in sales average as mentioned in the article they went down by 18% and there are real worrying signs for the "2nd tier stallions" I think we may have discussed this in another set of Posts.
"Odds and ends" Post 991- this will have ramifications for those plebs and breeders who cannot afford Bettors delight, Art Major -not sure who will take Mach 3's place. Not only are the breeders in trouble with "2nd tier stallions" but the fillies just don't sell. Some stallions are going to go by the wayside or seriously drop their price and that means under $4000.... I am talking about Artistic fella, Sportswriter, Western Terror maybe and some of the new ones are under the pump already and they include Auckland reactor, Mr Feelgood, Roll with Joe and probably a couple more. Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt. Some of these stallions need to produce a big winner right now. I wont be going to any of them if they cant do that. It is just not worth it.
(Post moved from Odds and Ends)
Many moons ago as a newly wed I was having an amicable discussion with my mother-in-law about an article, the content of which has long been forgotten in the mists of time. We had opposing opinions and she just said to me "Paper never refused ink yet". I have never forgotten the advice and have mentally referred to it most of my life, perhaps the above needs the same treatment?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
Hi Pat. I think I said "what happens to the folk who can not afford the big sires". I wonder if they will breed again after Sundays sale???
I'm sure there will be a lot of breeders questioning their future involvement Trish.Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
Once again, if you didn't have a yearling by the handful of stallions that the buyers like, (primarily Bettors Delight, Art Major & Mach Three), then it was a struggle to make any money. Just having a quick study of the results, I would suggest 75% of the yearlings left their owners in the red.
Perhaps it will level out a bit with M3 gone, BD reducing his number of mares and AM getting on in years BUT I don't think so. If you are going to breed to sell, it will remain imperative that you are on the money with your stallion choices.
It appears as if there was an error made by the author of the HRA article-David Boydell (APG) has confirmed this to his credit. I think is agreed upon that there was great attendance at the Sydney sales but this did not help those who bred to the lesser known stallions or those that bred fillies. I am quite sure that experts can come up with a solution and reveal it in this forum.
Hi Pat and everyone,
Yearling sales prices have been declining against their service fee price for many years.
What you may also want to look at is service fee versus the prizemoney returned by many of these stallions.
David James from Empire Stallions provided his insight on how to resolve some of these issues on APG TV.
Currently, significant prizemoney can only be won by few racehorses. I'm not sure if that's right or wrong however it affects the opportunties for the new and middle market stallions.
Yearlings by World Class and Proven stallions such as Western Terror, McArdle and Badlands Hanover are struggling to compete at APG sales due to factors including;
x - their few foal numbers (which reduce the chances of their progeny winning group races)
x - the few high quality mares served (which reduce their chances of producing group winning racehorses)
x - the level of trainer that train their progeny (therefore reducing their chances of winning group races)
Someone mentioned that some of these stallions need to stand up.
x - McArdle is the sire of Tact Tate who recently won the Truer Memorial (Group2) and the Bohemia Crystal Free For All (Group1) beating Purdons Have Faith In Me NZ.
x - Badlands Hanover is the sire of Beaudiene Boaz (who hit the $1M mark as a 5YO), Washakie and others.
x - Western Terror is the sire of Terror To Love and many other +100k winners across Aus and NZ.
Even if these undervalued stallions compete and win on an average or % basis against Bettors, Somebeach, Art Major etc., I don't see buyers going for them at the APG sales.
These and other factors will increase the demand for top tier stallions. Vendors could win with new and high profile stallions such as Captaintreacherous however who knows? - buyers are fickle. A Rocknroll Dance and Pet Rock were outstanding racehorses, are well bred and had some outstanding types across sales however, their yearlings didn't sell anywhere near as well as what they have in North America.
It is likely that the majority of vendors who are not selling top tier stallion progeny are losing money .
In addition to service fees, take into account the following costs for vendors;
x - Futurities (incl. Bathurst, Breeders, APG, Vicbred, Challenge etc.)
x - Agistment
x - Reproduction
x - Yearling preparation
x - Vet
x - APG commission
x - APG entry
x - APG advertising
We offered services to McArdle and Badlands Hanover at $2,500 and better for early payment and sold out. Most of these breeders were breeding to keep their progeny however it should be a little easier for them to return a profit against their higher priced and unproven competition if they were to sell.
John Dumensy is trying and helped us offer McArdle and Badlands Hanover from NSW. We wouldn't have offered these stallions without their support.
The decline in yearling sales prices versus service fees is a symptom of larger industry problems.
I think that improving these larger problems will subsequently help vendors on many levels.
What do you think?
For decades Ray Chaplin has been advocating the need to fix the product we offer the public if we hope to attract big spending clients and links to his submissions can be elsewhere on the forum
A link for David James ideas can be found here (his interview prompted the thread)
http://www.harnessracingforum.com/sh...worth-watching
- This is from Nixonbloodstock's twitter. It is stated that the median price in Melb was $26 & Sydney $15.
- Each of their breeders did money...Where are the buyers & where will future race fields come from? This is our sport's most pressing issue!
- The headline price in Sydney today was spectacular, but it should be noted that half of all yearlings sold for $15k or less
A good post Richard and you have probably nailed it with most of your information. Glad to see you had good success with McArdle, one of the problems a part time breeder like me has is selecting the right stallion and sometimes I cant do that.I think others with good mares are in the same boat and have to settle for a stallion which is not quite right. Eliteblood nailed this as well. "correct stallion choice" But the other problems wont go away just now. No-one is going to keep losing money in breeding, the losers eventually fade away.
Although David James and co spoke very well, are top horse people and have forgotten more than I will ever know, they have a vested interest and their job is to sell their stallions to the Australian harness racing public and that was the purpose of the videos, very informative but they rarely mentioned a stallion apart from their own and I found one the speakers to be evasive, a good job was done by Dean Baring.
Trish's point 3 post# 61 is spot on. The sale was spectacular, I accused APG of pumping up the sales via these articles and this was denied. It is not easy to find this information collectively about the sales, main reason is it will turn buyers off, no one wants negativity but the cold hard facts have to be put out there.
Who is going to Sportswriter again at his price? He was absolutely smashed in the sales-there are few more on thin ice as previously stated.
APG will be in WA this week for the first time and there will be about 110 yearlings for sale, there is a huge spread of sires and guess who has the most yearlings in the sale....yep...Sportswriter, there are only a few Art majors,M3's and BD's so we may get a more balanced price range of the sires on offer. The cheaper stallions (Rich and spoilt, Parsons Den etc) means the breeders don't lose as much if the sales don't go well.It will be interesting to see the averages .The good Westbred/Double Westbred program does impact on sales price. There wont be any $200,000 sales that's for sure.
, there are only a few Art majors,M3's and BD's so we may get a more balanced price range of the sires on offer. The cheaper stallions (Rich and spoilt, Parsons Den etc) means the breeders don't lose as much if the sales don't go well.It will be interesting to see the averages .The good Westbred/Double Westbred program does impact on sales price. There wont be any $200,000 sales that's for sure.[/QUOTE]
Market forces in the form of buyer preference may well see a $200k sale and still nothing for the lesser lights such is the dominance in the marketplace of Bettors and to a lesser extent Art Major and Mach3. Fewer numbers of what the buyers primarily or in many cases solely want is often what sets the price of a product. A vendor's market at Perth? I suspect only in the same vein as Melbourne, Auckland, Christchurch and Sydney. With one deceased (with no banked semen) and the other two closing in on 20yrs I wonder who is set to take over the mantle and will they be ever as dominant. I need to know now so know what the buyers are raving for in 3 years..!!!
Pat, obviously David James was going to spruik his stallions but Dean's lengthy interview included general Industry questions to which David gave quite comprehensive answers
I wonder who is set to take over the mantle and will they be ever as dominant. I need to know now so know what the buyers are raving for in 3 years..!!!
When you find out Trevor can you tell me!!! hahaha
But sadly this is no laughing matter. Hope the breeding folk in WA do well, we will see.
You will be the first to know Trish :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
Trish, it was Tony that asked.Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
If he And Trevor can come up with the answer - we will have both sides of the Tasman covered
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Sorry....age has something to do with that!!!!
Wouldn't it be good to know what the flavor was to be.
Hi its Mark here, as a past trainer I am absolutely certain that I would rather walk out to work one Bettors Delight than a dozen of any of the progeny of the 2nd tier stallions . As an owner I would much rather have my trainer tell me that my one Art Major is going really good than he tell me my dozen 2nd tier stallion progeny are going ok. As a breeder I would much rather put those thousands of hours into one Mach Three yearling than a dozen of the 2nd tier stallion progeny because those three sires are winners. But stupid
me went to two new sires!!! I fully intend to go & have a brain transplant because I am an idiot.
1.49.5 not quick enough?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
I think you're just guilty of bargain hunting Mark, most of us cannot resist a bargain - or should I say "what we thought was great value"
Thanks Pat and I understand some of your frustrations having spoken with many breeders, owners etc.
Pat - Are you only breeding to sell at an APG sale? If so, then stallions such as Western Terror and American Ideal have good sales results (so far) compared to their service fees.
Sportswriter? He had good results in the Melbourne sale however fell flat in Sydney. Was this due different mare quality? Sportswriter performed strongly as a 2YO sire in the 2016 season. Mark Purdon is probably the best in yearling selection and has acquired 2 x Sportswriters from the recent yearling sales in NZ.
Tony - The industry can change buyer preference, the impact of top stallions, the demand for other stallions and therefore market forces by changing factors including the racing program, incentives etc. I think that this was where David James was heading. Other stallions can emerge under an alternate system however won't in it's current form.
Mark - Many of us run through the same process. In 2015, we bred to a few unproven stallions and have the same concerns as you. We probably won't make that mistake again if our intention is to keep their progeny. To follow some thinking by Ray Chaplin and others, I want to stack more odds of winning in my favour at every step and we're not doing that with an unproven stallion. History shows same and I can give you countless examples. Which new or recently new stallion is going to beat the results of McArdle, Western Terror, Badlands etc. Beyond their immediate progeny, these stallions have also left mares with +$1Million dollar progeny.
As to your 1 Bettors strategy then I don't agree. Sure, if it's the right cross and Bettors has proven results in that mare's family then yes. If it's not or there isn't good history, then a service to Bettors is too expensive for that kind of risk for me. They call the Bettors x In The Pocket a "golden cross". One data program shows this cross running at 13% of +$100,000 winners. Well did you know that the Badlands Hanover x In The Pocket cross is running at 17% of +$100,000 winners? If all things were equal, then you could have had 7 x Badlands Hanover services for 1 x Bettors in 2016. I'd definitely gamble on the 7 x In The Pocket x Badlands ahead of your 1 x Bettors based on those stats. I can give you other examples too.
Thanks
"Rock n roll heaven cant produce a colt".
(Post moved from Odds and Ends)
1.49.5 not quick enough?
What , you jagged one at last??
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
Heaven Rocks goes ok too. Surely have to give them more than 2 years before can make that judgement?
It's been more than 2 years and the USA record is not that good either hence why I said that. Dollars won is what the horse is measured by and it has not happened. Just quoting a fast time at the fastest track in the world means not much in my opinion. It cost $8000 for this stallion which was part of my post, too expensive. I have used this stallion as well so not completely against the horse.
Sorry I can't format this to make it easier to read, but below is some data I have collated from the Melbourne and Sydney sales results. It only includes sold lots, passed in lots have had to be ignored because there is no way of knowing what they may have made. I know that there are also a lot of generalisations in the comments below, but I think they are valid despite that.
I have listed for most of the prominent stallions, the number of yearlings sold, the average price, the number sold for > $30k, the highest priced yearling.
Sire No Sold Ave >$30K % > $30k Highest
A Rocknroll Dance USA 17 $15,417 1 6% $38,000
American Ideal USA 11 $46,182 7 64% $115,000
Art Major USA 58 $38,534 31 53% $200,000
Betterthancheddar USA 8 $23,063 2 25% $32,500
Bettors Delight USA 29 $61,828 23 79% $245,000
Courage Under Fire NZ 4 $15,250 0 0% $21,000
Four Starzzz Shark CA 3 $12,333 0 0% $16,000
Mach Three CA 22 $37,273 13 59% $130,000
Pet Rock USA 14 $18,000 2 14% $40,000
Rock N Roll Heaven USA 28 $21,393 6 21% $85,000
Roll With Joe USA 12 $14,667 1 8% $43,000
Somebeachsomewhere USA 4 $66,875 3 75% $97,500
Sportswriter USA 26 $15,385 3 12% $45,000
Well Said (US) 6 $38,833 3 50% $105,000
Western Terror USA 13 $18,769 1 8% $31,000
As someone who breeds to sell, I have selected $30,000 as a happy result. The exercise has been worthwhile and a reasonable profit has been achieved. This is very much generalised because service fee obviously changes the profit result in every case as does each breeders individual rearing and preparation cost situation.
It highlights again to me what we all know, it is currently all about Bettors Delight, Art Major, American Ideal, Mach Three and SBSW.
It doesn't matter that Courage Under Fire, Four Starzzz Shark, Western Terror, Sportswriter, etc. etc. (include Badlands Hanover and McArdle) have had levels of success in the past or what your individual opinions are of these stallions because, if you are breeding to sell, the buyers are the sole judges in this exercise.
I agree with Mark's line of argument. I would much rather breed one Bettor's Delight and know that 79% of his yearlings can be sold at a profit at an average price of $61,828 than breed seven by Badlands Hanover or McArdle (or CUF, FSS, Sportswriter, ......................) that would almost surely produce a bottom line loss. Sorry Richard.
The playing field might level out a bit when Bettors Delight is gone but at the moment it is extremely difficult for both new stallions (like A Rock N Roll Dance and Pet Rock) and those 2nd tier stallions that have been successful but are no longer in the spotlight.
I was especially surprised that A Rock N Roll Dance was not better supported. A good racehorse, very well bred, yet only 1 yearling sold for more than $24,000.
Maybe we need to bring back limited stallion books to try and restore some order ????
Hi Trevor, thanks for your reply.
I understood Mark as breeding to race his own progeny and not sell at an APG type sale. And so, my argument was based on the assumption of him breeding to race as opposed to Pat who was breeding to sell at an APG sale.
If your breeding to keep the progeny and race then I'm assuming that your goal is to increase your chances of breeding an elite racehorse for less cost.
So, I based my argument on 2 assumptions.
1. Mark breeding to race the progeny (in my example, the progeny of an In The Pocket mare (ITP))
2. That you want to breed an elite racehorse (+$100,000 winner) for the least cost possible.
Since the data shows that you have a much stronger chance of an elite Badlands racehorse (out of an ITP mare) (17% vs 13% +100,000 winnners) against Bettors, then the I'd breed to Badlands. Take into account the service fee prices; Badlands was advertised at $2,500 versus Bettors at $17,600.
Let me know what you think based on the two assumptions that I've worked from.
Yes, I mostly agree with you in regards to breeding to sell at an APG sale and have stated as such previously.
Mark starting breeding to sell a few years ago Richard. His 1st one was an American Ideal/Vanston Lady filly that sold at the APG last year. He breed 4 last year but sadly 2 died, not a good year. The other 2 colts will go to APG next year, or he will lease them out because of the sale results in Sydney. He has one mare booked to Bettors this year. The other mares are being retired or sold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eliteblood
Great post Trevor & thanks for that summary, it tells a story. Mostly a sad one for the breeding industry with some of those stallions . I feel sorry for those who had a reserve on their yearling , that were passed in & still have to folk out 10% of the nominated reserve.
I also think $30k is a cut off point, if you sent a yearling to a preparer that cost can be huge, as are the other costs , APG entry ect you have to make that money or give up. It cost Mark over $700 just to attend the sale for those couple of days , you can not sleep in the car & look dapper like he thinks he did!!!! But honestly it costs taking into account the stallion price etc the breeder is doing it tough. Mark sold his American Ideal filly last year for $25 & he worked out that that was his break even mark.
Yes Richard, breeding to sell and breeding to keep are two totally different scenarios and I can't argue with the logics behind your propositionQuote:
Originally Posted by alphastud
EXCEPT THAT
Everything in my gut tells me that if I want to breed myself an elite racehorse (even if my mare is by ITP) then Bettors Delight would be my sire of first choice
Not saying you shouldn't but I personally don't place a lot of emphasis on crosses.