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[VVV] G'day Brad. I am reading ITMQ's chances at Menangle the other way insofar as I think that sweeping bend and big stretch might/will work in his favour rather than against him.Quote:
Originally Posted by broncobrad
If he is driven cold and gets to use his burst when he wants to I can't see any horse holding him out. Of course a lot's going to depend on draws and his position in the field at the critical points but with any sort of position & clear air to the wire...speed kills.
We can only find 8 times they met. Formatting not good when cut and paste into here so have attached as file.Quote:
Originally Posted by p plater
Crikey Toohard, you sure put the hard yards in, thanks. I so 'do not' want to re-ignite the debate over IMTQs champion qualities, it has been done to death. Maybe the purists on the forum, who have intimate knowledge and memorys of past champions can help out here, but I honestly cannot recall such an obvious stars credibility ever being called into so much question as IMTQ. In general, I think his standing in most peoples minds dictates that he is indeed a wonderful animal and his finishing bursts will become legendary when we are all dead and buried. I think for such a 'tried' horse, he is the ultimate enigma.
VVV, I have also thought how his finishing burst would pretty well disable anything on four legs at Menangle, but I just cannot see him gaining the advantage over the pack and maintaining that same advantage in a slog. I take your point how the course should suit him, but I can't get it out of my mind how devastating his last corner was in the WA ID final. It looked like he had just joined in the race (on a greyhound track and absolutely no disrespect to Gloucester Park here). Those sweeping bends at Menangle however, will find him out because once he gets around them, there is a mighty long straight in front of him.
This is not a slanging much about his ability guys...I hate how horses get attacked on here sometimes. They are after all just horses. Just what I reckon.
G'day Brad,
In my humble opinion ITMQ has a distinct advantage on smaller tracks due to his ability to get around them, he is able to muster and maintain speed just as well on an 800m cicuit as 1,000m or for that matter 1400, (if you think thats arguable take the time to analyse his results, so please before I say this don't get me wrong I AM NOT bagging the horse AT ALL, he is an absolute ripper of a pony and I have been trying all my life to get one HALF as good as him) so I think what will/has made things a little trickier for him at courses in the eastern states is that he loses that advantage he has over the others on the smaller circuit.
That factor alone makes it more difficult for the horse come ID (?) time, plus the driving to the track disadvantage Jnr will have, anyone who's driven a few times on Menangle will tell you it's like any other track, you need a few drives on it to get a handle on how to make the most of it and Menangle is more so than most, just look at the sectionals they run in average races there and that will give you a heads up why I'm saying ITMQ's high speed capabilities will be negated to a degree at Menangle.
cheers,
Dan
Hunter Cup 2010 = ITMQ
Cranbourne Cup 2010 = ITMQ
Vic Cup 2010 = ITMQ
2011 ID = ITMQ
2011 Miracle Mile = SUp
2011 Vic Cup = SUp
2012 ID = ITMQ
2012 Vic Cup = ITMQ
6-2. Sorry I gave them an extra win each. I thought Smoken Up ran in the Auckland Cup that ITMQ won. And I was just being nice to Trigger with his extra win! Who knows, maybe one will win the Inter and the other the Miracle Mile in the coming months.
I don't use those stats to denigrate Smoken Up. I use them to say how good is Smoken Up, yet ITMQ has this record against him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by broncobrad
Can't take credit for that Brad. Someone else's research. All off top of his head too.
And yes he's one-eyed. And good on him for being so! He won't drop off and nor should he.
And nor should anyone else with differing opinions.
He's like a courteous, polite and reasonable version of Rod.
Looking at his analysis of the times they have met;
1. When SU gallops on 1st turn and out of race, ITMQ does win race.
2. When ITMQ sits behind leader other than SU and uses sprint lane. ITMQ does win race.
3. When SU leads. ITMQ doesn't win race.
3 (a). When SU leads and ITMQ sits on his back, sprint lane or not. ITMQ doesn't win race.
4. When ITMQ sits behind leader and doesn't use sprint lane. ITMQ doesn't win race.
5. When SU out 3 wide no cover ensuring true run race, ITMQ doesn't win race.
Based on their clashes so far, for ITMQ to WIN a race SU is in;
He will need to be behind the leader and be able to get up inside the leader in the home straight.
As long as SU is not the leader OR
At no stage during the race is SU able to get to the 3 wide line OR
SU gallops at the start.
Paul, I think you forgot SU DQ'd :)Quote:
Based on their clashes so far, for ITMQ to WIN a race SU is in;
He will need to be behind the leader and be able to get up inside the leader in the home straight.
As long as SU is not the leader OR
At no stage during the race is SU able to get to the 3 wide line OR
SU gallops at the start.
Quite right DannoQuote:
Originally Posted by Danno
and in fact if a horse is disqualified from a race, that means it didnt actually compete....so how can you record a "win" against that horse if that horse didnt actually race?
Hence Quinn does not get the "win" for NZ ID cos Smoken Up wasnt really there!
Need to adjust that one Brenno...
Didn't know where fit that one in Dan. DSQ means non-competitor?Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
Will try..
Looking at his analysis of the times they have met;
1. When SU gallops on 1st turn and out of race, ITMQ does win race.
2. When ITMQ sits behind leader other than SU and uses sprint lane. ITMQ does win race.
3. When SU wins race. ITMQ second. SU Disqualified. ITMQ does win race.
4. When SU leads. ITMQ doesn't win race unless SU disqualified
4 (a). When SU leads and ITMQ sits on his back, sprint lane or not. ITMQ doesn't win race.
5. When ITMQ sits behind leader and doesn't use sprint lane. ITMQ doesn't win race.
6. When SU out 3 wide no cover ensuring true run race, ITMQ doesn't win race.
Based on their clashes so far, for ITMQ to WIN a race SU is in;
He will need to be behind the leader and be able to get up inside the leader in the home straight.
As long as SU is not the leader OR
At no stage during the race is SU able to get to the 3 wide line OR
SU gallops at the start OR
SU wins race ITMQ runs 2nd and SU disqualified