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Ha ha your a funny bloke Rich, I was thinking it might have been THE professional form student himself, haven't heard much from him lately, I think he might still be going through the last twenty years or so of Newcastle tapes working it out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard prior
Cheers,
Dan
Old mates definitely gone back to school. Somebody mentioned a 100/1 shot in the Newcastle Mile as well and if you fancy a horse at those odds, you should keep it to yourself and good luck if it wins or runs a place, but if it doesn't, it can make you look pretty silly.
What a race it will be cant wait till next week. The old warrior showed he wont be denied the chance to try and secure another Miracle Mile he is a true legend of the sport.
Better bet black will run a good race tonight drawn behind the leader definate ew chance at 100-1 and also get the in ire to the Miracle Mile when he wins!
U can understand Marty when u publicly declare things like bettor bet black and they run like 100/1 shots in the above race and his following race, some people may lose their faith in u...
Fantastic Smoken Up.
4 horses from the Chariots but only one from last years Mile.
After barrier draw For a Reason may well be leaders back
Smoken Up 1 and For a reason 2
Mr Johnson...(German et al)
For you info and that of all other members, you were banned from this forum for continually breaching the forum rules drawing infraction warnings to no avail. The initial ban was for 10 days to give you a final chance to abide after a cooling off period. You chose to snub this chance by reregistering under another name which drew an instant permanent ban from this forum. Again you have breached this permanent ban. Again you have been banned for serious breach of the rules.
If you had read the rules of this forum at initial registration as you were required to do and accept this, you would have noted that this forum is more than a place for you to espouse any tipping and/or racereading prowess. Accordingly your supposed ability to predict outcomes is of no relevance to this issue to lift your ban.
As you have continued to break the rules and then snub any consequences, there is no reason at all to allow your account to remain open. In fact it is only fair to other members banned for less than your indiscretions that you will continue to be prohibited from further postings here.
When is the barrier draw taking place???
done this afternoon.
I heard via Trackside CM 6, TTL 7,
1. Smoken Up
2. For a Reason
3. Mach Beauty
4. Abettorpunt (1st Reserve)
5. Beautide
6. Christen Me
7. Terror to Love
8. Im Victorious
9. Bitobliss (2nd Reserve)
10. Restrepo
Trigger to lead all the way???
As p plater Bailey mentioned earlier FAR May very well sit on Triggers back and have last crack, based on what we have seen of him in his last 3 races the last 400 will have no human seated at Menangle!
As has been seen in previous 1:50 or less races, if u are in the back half of the field u pretty much have buckleys.
If trigger leads any opposition know he will not give away the lead, so why suicide by tackling for it?
The big question, will Mach Beauty b able to cross Trigger? And then can Lance get out and go around Mach?
Not sure its the best draw for Trigger. I think Mach Beauty may be able to cross and Beautide will come across with it and either go to the front or keep Lance in a pocket.
G'day Ash,Quote:
Originally Posted by Maorisidol
I wouldn't assume FAR will end up leaders back, pretty sure Trigger leads, but if he gets out like he did Saturday night and assuming there are some challengers for the early lead
in order for FAR to run a mile similar to his recent super efforts I don't see an opening quarter in 26 in his repertoire, which he will need to do to get on the leaders back and hold it.
will be a great contest, bunch of super horses, one of the best fields ever assembled for this fantastic race which is no interdominion, hunter cup or nz cup, but a wonderful event of a different kind.
Smoken Up will be doing everything he can to hold up. I think he could have come out faster last night, came across as if he knew the front was there. He does seem to get off the mobile better drawn out wide tho. Mach Beauty will come out flying trying to cross or at least get in on the fence. I think Beautide can win, will float out than eventually sit parked. The way he went at Newcastle he's hard to beat. Takes until he has fully straightened up for Smoken Up to hit top gear, Beautide may be able to get a little margin on the turn and be too good and if Mach Beauty is infront well Beautide will be too good.
Going to be a great race. Beautide to win , but would love to see Smoken Up win.
If Mach Beauty runs the gate like he did last night, he'll cross easily IMO. He had a couple on them after 50m under a gentle hand drive.
Beautide and For A Reason will fight it out.
1E so he's unlikely to gain a start but Abettorpunt has taken the next step. His run at Newcastle and again last night were enormous. 50's or your money back is enticing.
I got on Beautide and For A Reason early Oct @ 25's & 33's. I'll own a cul de sac in NT if either wins : )
Anyone know when the IForm comes out. Should be interesting this week.
So much egg on face, the form could look like an omelette
Too right Bailey,Quote:
Originally Posted by p plater
professional form students have been taking a bit of a bashing lately, there are none so blind as those that will not see!
In reality it must be a bugger of a job, which would explain that those that have been doing it for a while are a little more cautious about writing off the chances of some, however it would have to have been a very green potato to write off SU, not just on his overall record, but his recent efforts were tough to the max without one skerrick of luck and not getting beaten very far.
Very green Potato indeed!
Why was there no change of tactics for Mach Beauty on Saturday night.
There have been posts in this forum previously about the Excel Stride vs Mach Beauty that talked about we don't hand up coming from the Tritton camp.
Low and behold, Mach Beautty hands up on Saturday and there is not even a mention in the Stewards Report.
I hate the COT rule, but its either a rule or not and in this case has been selectively used.
Perhaps the McCarthy vs Tritton is the reason and Team Tritton have no history with Justice or perhaps they realised that the way the horse was being driven was ridiculous, but if the rule is in why did the stewards not investigate.
You are kidding again German.
Mach Beauty was going to lead on its ear, but Mark Jones made a decision to take a sit.
This horse has been driven to lead at all costs in every start and took a sit even though it could have led.
Was it a smart decision? Absolutely, I doubt Panella would have used the same nouse.
Was it a change in tactic? Absolutely, this horse has never handed up and if you watch the replay you can see Mach Beauty was a mile in front of Smoken Up and Jones eased it for a trail.
Although we know how good a judge you are Marty, For A Reason was no chance to make the Miracle Mile. It was going to be unplaced in its next group start.
He is now second favourite for the race, great call.
Pretty smart drive by Mark Jones as you say Jack, if you take Smoken Up on in Mach beauty's usual racing fashion, there's every chance that you will be burnt. I thought that MB went pretty good the other night and a few of the guys had mentioned previously, that they would like to see the horse driven with a bit of cover or a bit quieter. It was probably the difference between making the final and not for MB.
Have been following thread with interest and noting the selections.
A problem has arisen,has some mad butcher chopped a leg off of Terror to Love?
Appears friendless so I went back and had another look at the N.Z. Cup and sure enough the result was still the same.
As good a staying effort as was S.Up's Cordina sprint win I rank TTL's effort over 2 miles as good,if not better.
We know that the MM will be a staying test with SU there and my feeling is that this will suit TTL,provided he is driven with some patience early.
Am I on the wrong tram here?
Hi Ron, If you get a chance, have a look at his run on Jewels day (2nd June) over the mile, the quality of opposition is nowhere near as strong as the MM field, but a pretty damn impressive win in 1.51.0. I wouldn't say that your on the wrong tram, as there are lots of chances. I would describe it as a train with 8 carriages and it's just a matter of picking one. There's no doubting his class that's for sure.
Watched a trial from Menangle yesterday on Trots TV that included Im Victorious & Christen Me, they went around pretty easy and finished off nicely. IV won the trial and CM, after being driven a bit quieter, finished off nicely to run 3rd.
[QUOTE= I would describe it as a train with 8 carriages and it's just a matter of picking one.
Agree,6 live chances,best field for years.At the odds TTL is my go.I would love SU to win but fav. from the 1 not a proposition (IMO) but as Toohard says if he is in front with 50 to go,tune in.
0
Hi to all.
What do you guys think the first split will be, & what sectionals will be required to give the other horses a chance of running over the top of the front horses? I pray Smoken Up wins, but i am thinking he really would need a 29sec, second quarter to achieve the win. Your thoughts?
Cheers
1st Quarter will probably be a scorcher in around 26.0, maybe quicker.
I agree mate. Just hope he can get a similar second quarter to last week. The second quarter will play a big role. Magical race, can't wait!Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard prior
With Trigger on the pole who could keep the lead, or b crossed by Mach Beauty, there is no horse I don't think that will come out looking for the lead and use lots of energy at the start because those 2 will dominate and both be going sub 26. Trigger will want to hold at all costs, and Mach will want to cross. Beautide may come out and see if Mach can cross, and then give up the lead to Beau, but if Trigger holds, Beau is in trouble in the death more likely.
However if Mach does cross, and He and Trigger get a length or so in front, Lance will pop out and go for the lead. Mach would b silly not to hand up and Beau may still b in the death and as Luke McCarthy said on In The Gig he just wants to land a length or so from the leaders, so 2 or 3 pegs would b fine for him, or one out one back.
So, if more than likely they are the first 4 running low 1:49 or less, and every other horse is at least 2lengths behind while the leaders are running those times, who the hell is gonna come from behind to run even faster than that?
Lance said Trigger has more to improve on his 1:49.9 last week and could have gone faster, but will b handle bars down from barrier rise this week, no easing up.
Best field I've seen for a long, long time. Luckily I'll get home from work just in time to watch it. Can't wait.
Beautide coming out of 5 battled with Mach Beauty for the lead at Newcastle in a 26.2 first quarter, took the trail and then popped out into the death at the bell and then burnt past at the end of the back straight. He was hardly touched going to the line to win by 8.5m. The first three quarters of the 2 races (Newcastle and Cordina) were very similar. Smoken Up working hard and home in 26.6, Beautide under no pressure home in 29.1. Can Beautide find the extra under pressure? He's coming out of the same gate as he did in Newcastle, this time he has Mach Beauty and Smoken Up inside him.
The records at Menangle for these 2 horses is amazing, we've all heard about Smoken Up's but Beautide has had 13 starts for 8 wins, 4 seconds and a 4th. I've watched all of them(my horse has run against him a few times and my cousins did too.) Courage To Rule had his measure early on but once Beautide had the advantage of the draw he beat him and just continued on improving.
I hope the 3 week break hasn't dulled him a bit.
What are the chances of Mach Beauty actually trying to hold the lead even if he crosses Smoken Up? Suicide?
Just heard that Mach Beauty isn't going to hand up to Smoken Up, Didn't they learn anything from last weeks run??
Exactly my thoughts RP! Surely he(Tritton) cannot be serious... If he is, I believe that is as good as suicide! Good night Irene to Mach Beauty! Insanity!
I don't think Lance will swallow that one as easy as you two!
I guess we shall find out tomorrow, but logic must prevail regarding Mach Beauty.
After the vastly improved result last week, I think the stewards will be watching very closely if Mach Beauty did try and hold the lead. The pressure will be enormous from SUQuote:
Originally Posted by Richard prior
I've never seen Lance as relaxed as he was last week. Made a big statement before the race and backed it up on the track. Rapt that old Triggers in the race as cracking pace is assured. Tritton's trying to sow the seed of doubt but I don't think Smoken Up is to concerned with Mach Beauty, when it got down to the nitty gritty last week, old Trigger just clenched his teeth and growled at Mach Beauty, so the physiological advantage is with Trigger.
Couldn't agree more that they (stewards) should be watching closely. MB has to be given every chance to perform as well as possible and after comparing his previous runs to that of the Cordina performance, he SHOULD be taking a sit. I am just miffed that nothing was said after he handed over to SU......totally unexpected, and probably the main reason the winner started at such long odds. if even thought there was a smidgen of a chance the lead was gonna be there for Lance, some of my $$ would have gone on.Quote:
Originally Posted by p plater
It was a pretty smart drive on Mach Beauty last week, IMO the difference between making the final or being run into the ground by Smoken Up. Before last weeks Cordina, There were probably a few doubters (I was one) on how SU was travelling, he'd been racing well in Victoria from ordinary draws, but get him back onto the big track and it's a whole different ball game. He was astonishing last week and as I mentioned in an earlier post, you should never under estimate a champion and that's exactly what old Trigger is.
Would really LOVE to know what the weather is doing down there right now. Two wks ago my picks were FAR, Christen Me, Beautide. Things have changed. For A Reason still gets it by a nose, Smoken Up 2nd and Christen Me 3rd. But sentiment and respect sways me to Trigger and he will be carrying my dollars and hopes and fair dinkum he will bring the house down if he wins. Go the old champ, you are still a whipper snapper compared to old Double Agent.