Thanks Richard. I guess the track wasn't affected at all then!
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Thanks Richard. I guess the track wasn't affected at all then!
Totally agree with Ash Mach Beauty driven with a sit is a different horse in the Cordina he improved his personal best time for the mile by about 1 full second. When he leads he rolls along at a quick tempo and he just cant come home in the sub 55 needed its more like 56+. He took a sit on Smoken ups back in the Cordina and came home in 54.78 that is similiar times to what For a reason is running home in.
No, I'm saying that every horse in last nights race with the exception of Mach Beauty would of beaten Smoken Up comfortably in the Cordina. In fact the best run in the Cordina was Abettorpunt first over. The young bloke on him was flushed out at the half by Fly Like An Eagle who was going nowhere. The young blokes inexperience on the big stage showed up again last night too. Very promising driver but he got schooled.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
& having spent 4 of the last 6 years working a stones throw from Yonkers and a half hour from the Big M, times wise, some nights are more conducive to faster times than others. I wasn't there last night but I was the week before where it was quite still and warmer. I hear it was a little chilly out there last night.
Every horse would have beaten him apart from MB? Based on what?
So if Smoken Up could have gone even quicker as Lance said, would they still been able to beat him?
Last night they could have run quicker times yet they didn't, & the weather and track obviously were fine. Do you think Smoken Up raced to his natural abilities last night, & if he did, would have he had a good chance of winning?
You can make excuses all you want, but Mach Beauty just isn't as good as the rest of the field at this stage. $44 outsider and finishing position show this.
There are three references. Mach Beauty, Abettorpunt, and last nights race with the actual horses involved which show the top three have Smoken Ups measure.
What shows Smoken Ip should have won?
A timing difference is o ly pointer. The timing difference also shows Trigger went 1.48.5 April 2011. Rohan Home btn 11m. So based on times Rohan Home would have won last nights race. Based on times, For A Reason wins in sub 1.50 earlier this month so he should have won. But remember times can vary, just look at For A Reason beaten in 1.54.5. So timing difference is irrelevant.
Typical Lance Justice??? FFS! He was asked a question and he gave his honest answer. What do you want him to do?Quote:
Originally Posted by HaroldParker
Since his very first run back all his knockers have done nothing but bag him. All the 'experts' and the usual critics. Even up to a week ago it went on. But they all jumped back on or went very quiet last week.
Was told before we left no horse has ever run in that Cordina race and won the MM a week later.
Hard for any horse to back up. Didn't stop us travelling up. Story about him Friday in Melbourne paper. Double page pic of him and story in Sydney paper Saturday. Harness racing hardly ever rates a mention in either.
After all that had gone before, just seeing him walk out on the track Saturday night was magic. Just magic.
No excuses from us. He obviously wasn't his usual self to us but all honours to the winner.
Last went to Menangle in March for Interdom. Lots of building works going on then. It's come a long way since. Looks great.
Apart from my son getting some sort of gastro thing at 3am Saturday morning and throwing his gut contents up for next 3 hours, we had a great time. Looking a bit doubtful we'd get to the track for a while. Reckon multiple fractures wouldn't have stopped him being there so no way a stomach upset was going to.
Caught up with some people on here and also with others we'd met on previous trips that remembered us.
Son was a bit flat when we started the trip home early yesterday. Stopped for breakfast somewhere. Sitting on the grass outside eating it. Saw a car and float drive in with a cart on the back. Parked just near us. Lance and Trigger. Went over and said hello. In a hurry to get the horse home but still took time to have a chat to us. That sparked me son up.
From the little I know of the man... thats typical Lance Justice.
Hi Paul, sorry I didn't get to catch up properly when I bumped Luke and yourself. It was nice to see you both albeit fleetingly.
I bet he was thrilled to catch up with Lance on the way home mate, it would of made his trip....
All the best and might see you in March
I like reading everyone's opinions, as I try seeing things from there perspective, but i still cannot see why some people seem to think that the big 3, or even the rest of the field apart from MB have Triggers measure... Is it simply because they are half his age or younger? If Smoken Up was 8 or 9, would the same things being said in regards to the Champ, even be said to begin with? I am sticking to 'my' opinion that Trigger was most definitely not himself at all, regardless of his age.
P.s Paul, your son is one if the most loyal fans of Trigger!
Great stuff!
You and maorisidol (the bloke who argued with me for months about ITMQ chances in the ID) can keep sticking to your opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
I'll keep sticking to mine, backing ITMQ and Beautide.
It's not his age, it's his form. Triggers form from 2-5 years ago probably wins the race. His form isn't as good now.
I don't know many other horses who can run 5th btn 12m after leading get the benefit of doubt that they are in fact currently better than the horse who won. Bit disrespectful to the winner imo.
So if IMTQ for instance had a race to suit, but ran a shocker, would that then mean, something was wrong with him, or he just ain't good enough anymore in this level? Triggers past 5 starts, apart from mm, have been massive, especially his 4ths!
Beautide and every other horse deserves respect, no disrespect to any of them, but why is it wrong to say that Trigger is as good ATM as the rest of them? If I was talking about Triggers form from 2-5 yrs ago, I don't think most people would be mentioning any of the other horses in the same league as Trigger. He was nearly unbeatable, & even the flashy gazelle ITMQ couldn't get past him after having a fantastic sit.. They didn't even smash the clock that night, imagine ITMQ ran in LSM, which Trigger ran 148.5.. No horse that night would have beaten him, not even if they were Superhorse! FOR winning by 20 metres, after being back in his usual spot managed 149.4 a few weeks back.. Trigger 149.9 in the Cordina. Let's not forget that Trigger is the only horse who has led from pillar to post running these times, which puts him in a different league altogether.
Depends on the situation re a horse running a 'shocker'. As I've been over, there are enough tie ins with Mach Beauty, Abettorpunt form that the result on Saturday night in the MM was indicative of where each horse is at. There has to be a passing of the crown at some stage and I think Sat night was certaintly it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
Have a look at the result, you can't say Smoken Up is as good as Beautide at the moment. A 12m margin says that. FAR has owned Mach Beauty lately. Mach Beauty doesn't run within a length of FAR from many tries. Yet he runs within a length of Smoken Up. FAR would have ran down Smoken Up last week. Just as FAR went past Smoken Up on Sat night. All pointers say FAR is better than Smoken Up. Beautide has beaten FAR (who has ran sub 1.50) 2/2 now, running straight past him on Sat night. Currently, Beautide is going a lot better than Smoken Up.
All indicators say Beautide would have won Cordina beating Smoken Up, and this was proved on Sat night in the Miracle Mile. Beautide is currently better than Smoken Up (over a mile at Menangle, Beautide is untested in this level over anything else), and has his measure.
This isn't an attack on Smoken Up. Nothing to be ashamed about running 5th in 1.50.2 as an 11yo. His best days just behind him, when he was at his peak the TAB wouldn't have offered a Miracle Mile win bet market, the market would have simply been pick the margin!!!
Look at the horses over all they have been running against mate, apart from Newcastle mile, beautide has been running against who? I wouldn't say he is better than FAR at all in this company, better on the night for sure. FOR did nothing really up the straight, yet still ran 3rd. Why does everyone assume that if it was any other horse on the back of a trigger in the Cordina, they would have won? If Smoken Up had won his last 4 or 5, would the same thing be even be said? It seems as though, Trigger has to reproduce 3 or more amazing wins in a row, or not far apart from each other, to even be considered dangerous.. I guess I'm Victorious even has Triggers measure now based on the MM..
.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
Beautide beat a high quality field, yes, that's not the main question here. I will ask you directly, do you think Smoken Up raced to his level? If not, why? No one is denying he is not as lethal as he was 2-5 yrs ago, that is common sense due to logic, i have been stating from the very start that you can't assess Trigger based on that run in the MM, as he was not himself! How can Trigger be dangerous in the Vic
Cup, if clearly Many others have his measure now? unless you secretly believe he did not run up to his standard.. When Beautife and FAR were caning MB, MB was going ballistic up front, so comparing is quite theoretical like everything we are talking about here.. If FAR or Beautide were on the back of Smoken Up last week, I will ask you, how do you know that Smoken Up wouldn't have won and why? It could have gone so many different ways, like Trigger breaking them, taking the sting out of there sprint etc etc etc...
According to you, he is pretty much done and dusted in the elite level.
I guess reality is a subjective view point, regardless of anyone's opinions.
.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
Well each of us have to come up with evidence to support our opinions, regardless if they differ.
I take it your answer is, Triggers time is up, i am assuming to his age, yet you consider him a danger in the VIC Cup, on a track he really over all is not comfortable on, especially comparing him to his love affair with Menangle.
You say that I do not have anything to back his very poor run in the MM.. I thought the way he raced explained it all, we obviously disagree as to why that is. That is fine, i appreciate your opinions, even though I clearly don't agree. The 3 elite horse comment was a general comment, meaning those that placed in the MM, & the rest of te young big guns.
Emotions come in to it as well, for many different reasons, & yes I agree that Trigger can't be having tough runs like he once did, regardless of his ferocious tenacity and strength, he is 11 now.
It's all good man :)
.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
Even though you knew what I meant regarding 'my thought' comment, 'I think' my many posts already explained as to why I think he ran very poorly, & I really 'think' that is the fundamental reasoning of differing of opinions.
If you are right, no amount of luck, apart from most of the big guns in the field galloping, or them being unwell etc etc, will help Trigger bob up for another Grand Circuit/Group 1 win, or even a placing, based on his performance in the MM, which most think is due to his age(logical),
and to his lack of ability @ his age, which i am comfortable to say a few people on here including yourself, do not believe he has anymore. Look at the easy time he had in front in the MM, yet he punctured like he has never done before...
If i am right, he would have a chance based on his strength, tenacity, and ability., and his proper recovery time, which is needed due to his age.
I guess time will tell, even though it is coming around quickly for the mighty Champ!
I pray he can win a big one before he earns his well earned rest.
He is a legend after all.
P.S
It's not his age, it's his form. Triggers form from 2-5 years ago probably wins the race. His form isn't as good now.
I don't know many other horses who can run 5th btn 12m after leading get the benefit of doubt that they are in fact currently better than the horse who won. Bit disrespectful to the winner imo.
I am curious that you say that it is not his age, yet you imply it over and over, bringing up his age..;
Trigger is going bloody unreal for an 11yo and shouldn't be doing what he is doing, but lets be fair to the top three from last night, they now have his measure.
This isn't an attack on Smoken Up. Nothing to be ashamed about running 5th in 1.50.2 as an 11yo. His best days just behind him, when he was at his peak the TAB wouldn't have offered a Miracle Mile win bet market, the market would have simply been pick the margin!!!
That pretty much tells me your reasoning, is his age, in regards to his form or poor form or race in the MM, which i actually would agree with you as it is common sense.. He can't back it up like he used to due those reasons.
No one is disrespecting Beautide, but c'mon, it really makes you wonder if Trigger was on song like he was last week, what the outcome could have been, which i know you already have replied with shoulda coulda woulda :) Two years ago, Triggers form would have obliterated most if not all these horses in the MM, and i think it is fair to say that it is more than a probable..
Brenno myself i am not saying Trigger is today better than the 3 mentioned horses anywhere at any track cos he aint what he was, the light has faded a little no doubt, the old Trigger would have won his last couple of races at Melton i would say.Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
my point is simply that his last run was totally way down on the week before, simple. thats it, and you ask "Smoken" to back up that statement with why, well hows cos the Trainer said so! doesnt get any more real than that. however for me the proof was in the pudding...
Brenno, if you cant see the same horse having an easier lead, and no pressure in front until essentially the 600 or so, who in the same distance,same track 7 days earlier does run 12-14 or so metres FASTER (1:49.9 then 7 days later 1:50.2) then u really have the blinkers on.
Before the race i did not hear too many media "experts" or rival Drivers or Trainers totally writing him off and saying he will not be competitive because after his somewhat "surprising" (but great) return to form and favorite track most thought that it was totally possible that he would win the MM, or be right there anyway.
However he did not and i would say that most people would assess his run and say "he didnt run up to the form of the week before", in other words he was flat pretty much.
Greg Hayes has said that not many if any back up well from the Cordina to the MM.
Now Brendan, i am not saying and never have said that i think he would have won the MM if he ran up to the Cordina effort, cos Beau may very well have been too quick over the last 200 and may have beaten him by a head to 2m -5m who knows?
My only point is i i reckon he was flat in comparison.
I guess on In The Gig tonite we will have some evaluations of the race and different horses performances assessed, so will b interesting to what others say...
I agree that nobody has said that Trigger is better than any of the horse mentioned, simply what has been said or 'tried' is that Trigger most definitely did not run up to his capabilities.
I seriously don't understand why that can't be acknowledged by a few people..
If i was talking about 2-5 years ago, i would be very comfortable to say, he was a league above any of these horses, and that is no disrespect to any horses. I love them all :)
ITMQ used from gate against normal racing pattern in a blistering early time in Vic Cup and barely goes down. For the next 3 months you want to write him off for the Inter, saying no excuses etc. Moment Trigger goes down and it's because he just wasn't at his best and could have done better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maorisidol
As for me with the blinkers on. I've already said times aren't eveything. FAR ran sub 1.50 as well last month. Didn't Sat night. Beaten in 1.54.5 as well last month. Track doesn't play identical every week.
My quote posted yesterday.Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokenI agree that nobody has said that Trigger is better than any of the horse mentioned Then why argue with me when I said Beautide, CM and FAR would have beat Smoken Up in the Cordina?, simply what has been said or 'tried' is that Trigger most definitely did not run up to his capabilities.
I seriously don't understand why that can't be acknowledged by a few people..
)Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
ITMQ worked at the start and had the best possible run imaginable, and he got whipped in the end by CB and MS, running away from him. Difference is, ITMQ ran up to his best potential that night, he just wasn't good enough on the night.
He is a beautiful very fast horse, with a massive sprint BUT he does not have a warrior fighting massive heart!
Everybody knows that! Triggers run in that race was absolutely Herculean.. He made that race, and he only got beaten how many meters, and do you remember the mountain of work he was doing? Reality is, we all have favourites, and i am happy to admit, Trigger is my all time favourite!
I wasn't arguing to begin with, more like a friendly debate. I do not know that either of the names mentioned would have beaten each other, as we are hypothesising different possibilities. They could have beaten Trigger, but i do not see you saying that Trigger could have beaten them. Why not? I mean, you say 2 years ago when he clocked in 148.5, he PROBABLY would have beaten this lot in the MM. Really? Only probably? Yet i have to give it to you, that on your other comment, you state that when Smoken Up was at his peak, it would not be in the case if he would win, but how much by..
The way he ran that night, he easily could have whipped them!
My comparison with Trigger week to week as stated is where many of the variables for the horse out front in both races (trigger) were very very similar. ie he led, he dictated the race. he won, he lost and was run down and beaten by 12m.Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
Easy to compare performance.
It wasnt that one week he was in the death next week he was 1/4 back and one week 1mile next week standing start 2700m! or 1 mile but was sitting 5th as opposed to 1 mile leading. weather basically same, in comparison to FAR 1:54.5 when the Murray River was running down the front straight!!!!
variables so close to identical an easy comparison can be made because of course also led both races, pretty easy really.
Beautide eased down 9m > Abettorpunt (race run to suit Abettorpunt)Quote:
Originally Posted by Maorisidol
Smoken Up pushed out 4m > Abettorpunt (race not so much run to suit Abettorpunt)
Beautide eased down 5m > Smoken Up pushed out
-------------------------------------------------------------
For A Reason 10m + > Mach Beauty
Smoken Up 4m > Mach Beauty
For a Reason 6m+ > Smoken Uo
Pretty easy really.
So Brenno, what do you believe what might have happened if MB took a trail immediately on Beautides back, like he did on Trigger's back?
I use the word believe, because there is no realistic and true answer to what might have happened, hence i cannot use the word know, because that would mean that you have knowledge of the uknown.
I have spoken to quite a few people regarding this years miracle mile, and they all said the same thing, the race was very average over all, but the hype was amazing! Beautide, nice win but non memorable win to me personally, no disrespect intended! CM was one of the better runs of the lot of them, and even he compounded. FAR, average to me, IV decent enough, Trigger well there is no point goiung around in circles with my analysis and reasoning for his very poor effort.. Restrepo, crap draw, TTL, Don't bother coming back to Menangle, MB, needs a break!
If MB sat on Beautides back. Given Beautide sat outside him at Newcastle and beat him by 15m I think that says it all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
If by average they mean quickest Miracle Mile ever then I fully agree.
That says, that MB went like a maniac that night, and is clearly not suited to racing like that. He compounds something chronic! How can any of us truly know, how MB would have performed on the back of Beautide? We can't, we can only assume like everything else. There is some truth in dribs and drabs in what everybody is saying, no one is flat out wrong or right!
How do we know that he didn't peak in the Cordinia sprint? So so many variables and hypothesis, it can make you go loco :)
Nobody thought he would perform as good as he did on Triggers back, and he suprised many people.
Spoke to a mate today, that ended up going to the MM, and i asked him what the track was like, and his opinion was, they should have run much faster times! Maybe they are all tired..
The only truth we have is Beautide won.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
I totally agree, and congratulations to the top 3, but that does nothing in regards as to why others may question why certain horses that were expected to perform much better, didn't.. Trigger was the most obvious of the lot, and you don't have to be a harness guru to figure that out..
Mach Beauty
Abettorpunt
In the Gig looks interesting.
Wrong. The week before it was warmer with very little wind i.e conducive to faster times. It was a little chilly on Saturday.
Time is irrelevant when comparing apples one week to oranges the next ... unless you're in prison.
Brendan, Newcastle Mile, Abettorpunt was 3 wide then 4-5 wide turning the trip. That horse has taken the next step. He'll win a GC race this season IMO.
Sat with close friends of the TTL camp on Sat night and word is he will run in the Vic Cup.Desperate to win in Australia.Quote:
Originally Posted by Maorisidol
Nothing wrong with track times were OK all night.They ran 52 and a tick in the first.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoken
That would be great so see him(TTL) go around in the Victoria Cup, the longer distance would certainly suit him. Beautide's heading down and from what the Kookaburra(Michael Bennan) said in an interview on Saturday, Im Victorious will be as well. Should be a cracker of a race.
And as my old Grandad used to say"if the dog don't stop for a s**t he catches the rabbit".Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
We are all using times,sits,great drives,age differences,last weeks run,this weeks run,drivers brain snaps,etc.etc.
It is all conjecture.The facts are SU wins Cordina in 49 and change and Beautide wins Miracle Mile in 50 and change.All the rest is??? see above about dog.
Teecee, I think this topic has run it's full course.
Hey mate, nice too see another one who knocked ITMQ come out again and try to talk horses with me.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2minuteman