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How about the 'pedigree experts' explaining Our Jericho's success in making the ID Final to us :)
Here is a horse that is by a skewbald stallion that could only manage 1 2nd from his 6 lifetime starts and has only sired 3 winners from 38 foals.
Even though he is now being raced by millionaires, I'll wager he has made some smalltime breeder very happy along the way!
Come on Phil, you know that not every Olympian has athletes for parents. There are plenty of sources of talent in his pedigree. Maybe Tomahawk is a poor man's Sovereign Adios whom having sired one good one from his first crop will see his popularity rise again but never sire another good one ;)
It is 20yrs since another fish looked down and only an outside chance of defending his title
Hi Pat,Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan of Jate
More like a Ballarat Cup/FFA race at Menangle can't let that one go through to the keeper. From what I've seen going around at Menangle each week nothing much going on there. In my opinion this ID final is stronger than the 2016 Hunter Cup let alone the Ballarat Cup. You have the two current best horses in Australia Hector and Lenny, Smolda, the favourite and winner of the Hunter Cup. Close to the best horse in NSW Bling It On and WA's two best Run Oneover and Beaudiene Boaz - better field than the Hunter Cup. On a footnote we all know which horse should have won the HC WA's My Hard Copy, badly held up on the home turn flew home to run third.
IMO , PATHETIC prizemony for consolation of Inter at $35 thou.
That is dreadful Trish. $75k the same as the heats should have been the minimum
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
But why?
Last placegetter in Inter Dom Grand Final should receive more than winner of Consolation in my view. The goal is to make the final, and all Grand Final qualifiers should be rewarded more than any horse in Consolation -- because every one of them is finishing higher than any Consolation horse in the series.
The way it is last placegetter in Grand Final gets $1k less than Consolation winner I believe. I like where they've moved the conditions this year.
Good point Cody - you have swayed me. My thinking was that these horses have not come over here to compete in 35k races but then again that (sadly) is Gp2 equivalent prizemoney
True.Quote:
Originally Posted by codywinnell
I remember Abettorpunt getting $60K for winnning the Bohemia Crystal at Menangle on Interdom day. Pretty much same as 3rd in the final.
This thorough answer has been sent to me Phil, I trust you will enjoy itQuote:
Originally Posted by strong persuader
"Don't know what the formal qualifications of a "pedigree expert" are but here are my suggestions as to why Our Jerichos performance exceed what most people would expect from his ( immediate ) pedigree.
Whilst Tesio never actually revealed what he looked for in selecting matings subsequent analysis of the pedigrees of the champions he bred showed that they all exhibited sex balanced line breeding to superior siblings usually in generations 4 to 8 but often with further reinforcements even further back.
Looking for Tesios principles in Our Jerichos pedigree shows that like many of the New Zealand stock he has multiples of Scotland and his sister Rose Scot. More specifically Christjan Cullen has Knight Dream and his sister Marjorie Armstrong in his pedigree and many of his better stock have multiples of Knight Dream and his sire Nibble Hanover in their dams. Whilst Tomahawk doesn't appear to be one of his better ones ( though lack of success on the track isn't definative proof of lack of ability ) he also multiplies the Knight Dream influences frequently found in the better performed CC's, and no doubt in some lesser performed ones too
Our Jerichos dam is by Deal Direct who also adds more Knight Dream and his second dam is by Timely Knight who is a son of Sweet Dream who is a full sister to Knight Dream, thus Our Jerichos pedigree exhibits the Tesio principles of reinforced line breeding to superior siblings.
For those who follow Tesio principles what further adds to the potential potency of Our Jerichos pedigree in addition to the Knight Dream and his siblings is that Timely Knight is by Good Time and that Good Time over Knight Dream is repeated several times, and in one instance a son of Good Time over Knight Dream throughout Our Jericho, so the pedigree has multiples of near genetic siblings as well as actual siblings.
I don't think there has been any actuall statistical analysis on the position of a common ancestor on the sire line in stbs in general or on Direct Scooter in particular, but analysis from TBs indicate that the 4x3 position for a common ancestor on the sire line is quite favourable for performance and it's not unreasonable to think that that would hold true for stbs as well. Of course the analysis does pertain to sires who are considered superior sires and would probably not give the same results for inferior sires.
Of course Tesio principles are unproven science and correlation does not automatically mean causation so Our Jericho's apparent ability above what his immediate pedigree would suggest could simply be the result of the laws of genetic variation. "