Quote:
Originally Posted by brent_L
I tend to agree that LP will go forward, and I think EOTE will hold AVON out till SSL gets there.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brent_L
I tend to agree that LP will go forward, and I think EOTE will hold AVON out till SSL gets there.
1 will lead early
The only horse the leader would hand up to is Stuey
Avon has the speed to keep Stuey wide the whole way
IMO the best chance Avon has of finishing near the winner (or possibly winning) is to go to the pegs
If Avon does go to the pegs the race is wide open & Beau is 7/4+
They r the reasons IMO CM & G'teed are the plays at the current odds.
But that's the $750K question Trish.......will Shane hand up the death??Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
Sounds like a fair assessment. I don't think Nova will drop to the pegs, he will keep out Stuey and press for the lead. Good luck to all horses and drivers. Personally, I'd like to see Gauranteed or Nova win.
If Beautide led, he would only be going as fast as he had to!.........James Rattray loves to cuddle them when in front!.............I hope he doesn't lead, and think the 1 will lead, and the rest can sort their positions out from their!.........if I was on Avonnova, I would be going to the fence!
Quote:
Originally Posted by brent_L
Should have added SSL will press on & EOTE will hand up, maybe?
Just a reminder.....the race is won at 1609 metres, not 400, not 800, .....on the line... Beautide has too much class for a VERY good field with his alley, if he drew out in the carpark that would mean he would have to work EXTRA hard at SOME stage, from the three.....he's too good, like to be as sure of winning the lottery! no certanties in racing particularly at this level but gee I think the "Tassie Terminator" will do a job on them!
Cheers,
Dan
I think one things for sure, if Stuey doesnt lead, Stuey doesnt win.
And i cant see Nova letting him get past, so is SSL left 3 wide or does the pole horse relent and let Nova cross after a torrid 400m cos EOTE cannot win fullstop. If he tries to lead all the way he will be squashed even worse than last week and be further down the prizemoney winnings than he could be if he immediately took a sit.
EOTE and SSL have different owners so i am sure S W Hoffman the owner of EOTE wouldnt want his horse put up as the bunny in a MM and slaughtered just so a stablemate can get a better chance...
This puts Beau and Christen Me sitting real close by waiting to pounce and of course Guaranteed and lets not forget the "other" horse who has a 1:49.4 to his name For A Reason.
I think Beau has simply been trained to the minute for this race and we will see his best race ever here. Last week he was 3 wide for maybe the first 800 as was Guaranteed and Guaranteed was catching him, not saying he was gonna get him but what a run by both.
Will be a super MM cant wait.
The ones who do no work will fight it out I reckon........I'm backing CM & FAR.
Late scratching TTL, BBB leads throughout in 1:48.6!!!!!
EOTE, ananova and SSL to go nuts three deep for first 800. Beautide and gaurenteed to fight it out. Sub 1.50
Is there anyone that disagrees that this would be a better race over 2300m?
Agree! Who would you be on Kev? I know that I'd still be on Gauranteed and Christen Me.
On preparation and experience I would have to go for Beau (I think?!)
I just have a feeling that these horses are really catching up to Beautide, and if Beautide does still dominate, it will be for 1 more season. Again, I have been wrong before :p I can't wait until LTS is back..
You may well be right Ev, I just like him this time as he has had the perfect prep - being set for this and not going up and down in distance like the NZ campaigners (and of course he has runs on the board)
He is the one to beat for sure, but he definitely can be beaten IMO.
They can ALL be beaten guys, and this current crop of top liners is certainly a bit more even matched than we have seen in recent years with the dominance of horses like Blackie, Trigger and Quinnie, but I know I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but in my humble opinion, Beautide IS the emerging star, what the horse can do during a run.... against the best available....when right, and don't forget the horse was an M0 horse 15 months ago.....the people managing him are still learning about how to get and keep him top notch! I will eat humble pie if he gets a reasonable run and gets done over the next short while, but I don't think I will be able to tell you what humble pie tastes like somehow.
http://www.harness.org.au/news-artic...?news_id=25043
not so sure this will do the trick.....bit like sitting in the death going 1:50 at Newcastle....a dream gone wrong......
I do hope we don't see a repeat of last years mobile barrier speed, it was farcical.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danno
I have 2 bones of contention with what Tritton has said......1 Stuey has now had two chances to cross Nova and hasn't gone close to succeeding. What makes him think Satdy night will be any different? 2 if Nova does let Stuey across it would be lunacy to set up a sub 1:50 speed with him in the death.....surely, in this instance, Lauren would be let run to the top.
1 Christen Me
2 Beautide
3 Avonnova
Christen Me had to death seat last year whereas Beautide got a really nice trip. Christen Me won't have to do the same work this year and will be close enough. Showed in the Vic Cup he can beat Beautide home.
At the prices I would much rather be on Christen Me. Winner comers from those two one would think.
For A Reason probably just a tad off Beautide and Christen Me last year I thought and needs a lot nicer run to beat them. From that draw he won't get it. I have him a length and a half or two off the big 2 given the runs they will get. However, in my book Avonnova is a better 1 v 1 all things square horse than FAR. I know it's against popular opinion but Avonnova could well get a very nice run and win. He shouldn't be too far off anyway.
EOTE not good enough. Given the Avonnova result at Newcastle I don't think Stuey can win from that draw.
Guaranteed a bad draw as well. Put in a real nice run last time out but biggest test to date drawn there is a risk. Very capable though.
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/More...rs-at-Menangle
So is Tritton bluffing, hoping to hold the lead with Easy On The Eye only to hand it over to Suave Stuey Lombo as soon as he can?
http://www.harnesslink.com/Internati...-support-Stuey
http://www.harness.org.au/news-artic...?news_id=25076
“I’m expecting to be in front but that just my thoughts and I haven’t gone into any discussion with Shaney yet about tactics. If Easy On The Eye does hold us, I don’t think we’d hand over to Suave Stuey Lombo which makes things interesting.”
Fantastic field to line up and its got everyone guessing as to who will lead out of the 3 EOTE, Avonnova or Stuey. I dont think it will make too much of a difference to the result because I think Beautide and Christen Me will be too strong late. But what it has done is got every talking about the MM, even people who dont even follow Harness racing have shown interest, I have had family and friends as well as their friends all call me to discuss the MM. Who will lead? Will EOTE really hold out Stuey if he crosses Avonnova? What time will they run if they burn in the first quarter? Can they break the track record? These are the questions that they all ask and my answer has been watch it and all your questions will be answered. Its good to see more people showing an interest in our game especially when alot of them normally only show an interest in the gallops.
Anyway its going to be a cracker of a race Im tipping
Beautide
Christen Me
FAR
Avonnova or Stuey
149.1
Well SSL is in the field which I think to be honest the race need him to be there just to ensure that there would be genuine raw speed early if nothing else, after all the race has always been about what time they will run as much as who will win. If memory serves me correct wasn't there a MM a year or two back where McCarthy's had two runners who's normal race style did not pan out in the race and it changed the way other horses where driven expecting these horse to follow plan A but this did not happen (if I am wrong I stand corrected), I still think Beautide will win. I think whoever does win will need to be able to go low 1:50 at least that's where I think Easy On The Eye and Avonnova will struggle (but I've been wrong before). I think SSL will go forward no matter what for how ever long it takes to get the lead as this is how he has been driven all along so I can't see them changing their plan now. It's this one plan that has everyone trying to second guess what they are going to do if they get the lead with EOTE. No prize for guessing they hand up to SSL and no one else. I do not think that there is anything sus with that plan because who wouldn't want to be behind the leader SSL as he drifts out in the straight in the run home?
For what it's worth
1 Beautide
2 Christen Me
???? Guaranteed, SSL or For A Reason
Should be a great race and good luck to all.
Gareth Hall sure has Herculean thoughts regarding Beautide.. He claims he's even better than BAF and Quinny.. Beautide should absolutely annihilate them tonight if Gazza is right :p
Whoever did that from has SSL crossing Avon in the first 400 but Avon in death as he can't cross the 1 but the 8 can cross everyone. I wish whoever does this fanciful form had to print his form results each week. He might be right but how fast will SSL have to run out of the gate?Quote:
Originally Posted by trish
I cannot see Avon letting that happen either Toni.Quote:
Originally Posted by Race For Fun
However it pans out (Avon or Stuey in the D) it seems extremely likely that Beau will be in the 1x1 and whether he wins may be determined by how early he has to go 3W (and at what pace) and who gets the 3WT - CM and FAR may have the class to make up the necessary 4m
I think it will be suicide for EOTE to try and hold the lead when Avon and Stuey go to war. If he did and Stuey got posted 3W and say Guaranteed grabbed his back, could Beau get held up in the 1x1?
There are lots of scenarios which makes the lead up interesting - let's hope the race really is full on
Hi Toni
Yea I don't know who does this IFORM but if that's true SSL will have to go very very fast! low 26's/higher 25's ???
That's right Trish everyone knows that they want to lead on SSL but they want to win the race more. Agree with you Kevin about the Beautide maybe getting cluttered behind or inside horses who have worked. What's the chance of some horses working too hard early and some getting cluttered and TTL swooping late? He is a very good horse who has the ability....... No as much as I'd like to see it happen I don't think it will either.
Stu has never crossed Nova!Quote:
Originally Posted by Race For Fun
Why can't Avonnova cross and hand up to Beautide. Or even sit Beautide parked until Stuey comes and gives him the 1-1?
I wonder if Avonnova gets the lead if they may try to hold it?
I think Avon will cross EOTE when the pressure comes from Stuey but why would he hand up to Beau?Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
Who knows how hard he may have to work to the lead (if it eventuates), and then if he going to have Stuey come hook into him it might be wiser to just let Beautide go to the front and let him cop the abuse from Stuey.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Harness Racing NSW @HRNSW_Harness ·
Please take note that tonight's Live Stream has been cancelled. All races will be shown on Sky Racing 1. We apologise for the inconvenience
I think the whole EOTE holding the lead is just talk,i think the lead will be there for Nova quite early because that will only help Stuey to get across without busting a gut, and if i was the owners of EOTE following a horse that just broke Beautides newcastle record is a pretty good trip in a MM.Who knows maybe CM will blast off the gate and have a crack.Gotta love the intrigue of this race.
I think i'll be taking a quiet box tri (Beautide,FAR,NOVA,CM)
Safe trip to all involved!
The way I see it Brendan, Avon finding the lead and fending off Stuey will all be the one event (inside the first 400m)Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
Gee it would be a cracking race if it was over 2000+