Due to the Covid curfew, the shuffle up has seen Bendigo become the big winner on Oct 9
https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...oria-update17/
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Due to the Covid curfew, the shuffle up has seen Bendigo become the big winner on Oct 9
https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...oria-update17/
The Oaks and Derby fields
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...s/?mc=BN021021
The draws for all of the Bendigo big races (on Sat Oct 9)
will be televised on TrotsVision at 7pm this Monday
https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...-victoria-cup/
I would love it if there was even more incentive for Oaks and Derby heat participants to win. Like some races in the US where the heat winners get to chose their barrier for the final
How good would the the final be if Ladies in Red wins the heat, picks gate 1 for final while Tough Tilly doesnt get a clear run tonight and at the whim of RBD draws crap.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
It was the draw that decided Tough Tilly's big win over Ladies In Red last year - how was that fair
The best should be given every chance to win the classics or else they may as well be handicaps not classics
My idea is to make the heats more meaningful.
The best are capable of winning heats regardless of their draw - them wanting to win or save is another matter
I would like to give them incentive to win
With your random draws for the final mediocrity can be given an advantage - like I said, I am talking about the best winning the classics - Derby, Oaks (not handicaps)
If they're the best generally they will find a way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Why decide the final based on luck of draw/strength of opposition in the heat. You would also have situations where one horse gets an easier heat whereas 2 or 3 top seeds might need to face each other in a heat. Not fair to penalise them.
Eg Major Moth gets to draw 3 tonight, dictate run and win 1.56. So he gets pick of draw. Assume Bondi Lockdown and American Dealer then have a ding dong battle but from their bad draws run 1.57. One might win but given slower time how do they get to choose barrier ahead of Major Moth? Then the horse who ran 2nd draws crap. Not fair. So Major Moth starts fave in final by virtue of getting an easier heat and better draw in the heat.
But that can happen in a final eg TT v LIR in the Vicbred Final - the only time LIR has been beaten when TT gets 2 and LIR gets 8. Every chance that we should be spruiking Ladies as an undefeated champion. We don't want to be like pro Athletics where champions are crucifiedQuote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
However, my reason for my opening post about this is that right now the heats are barely betting propositions as horses do not need to win and possibly want to win enough.
Another solution would be to make the heats worth more
Maybe we could have seedings and spread them across the heatsQuote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
Yes it can but happen but better to happen from randomness than to happen from getting a leg up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Tough luck LIR got beat by the draw. Racing isn't fair sometimes. LIR V Tough Tilly RD5 or whatever we are up to will be a good selling point too.
Agree the heats can sometimes be a yawn fest but it isn't a reason to bastardise the finals.
Agree there should be seedings.
If you have seedings for heats and draw preferences according to finishing positions, I think we would have a fairer system to ensure the cream rises to the top - far from bastardizing finals it would be making them less 'Lotto' events
If it is 'Tough Luck' that LIR got beat by the draw, why are you worried about a horse suffering due to preferential draws when this system they would have a major say in determining their own future by performing in the heats (ps agreeing that we seed the heats to make them as fair as possible too)
In a 3 heat system Seed 1 would still have the benefit of coming up against Seed 6 whereas Seed 3 must come up against Seed 4. The seed system still isn't perfect, look where Father Bob and Expensive Ego are seeded for the Interdominion. The cream rises to the top by virtue of being better, not by getting a leg up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
If a horse gets dudded from RBD that sucks but thats racing. Its a much better alternative than a horse getting dudded from an unfair system thats masquerading as being fair that is so likely to throw up situations where horses can get dudded.
If the heats are uncompetitive, how uncompetitive will Ladies in Red choosing gate 1 next week?
As an owner/trainer/driver/prepost punter can handle getting dudded at RBD. Can't handle drawing 12 in heats, running slower winning time or running 2nd to a top seed and then being dudded in the draw for the final.
I just don't understand Brendan. You can handle the greater 50/50 possibility of being dudded by RBD in a classic final but cannot handle the lesser possibility of being dudded by RBD in a heat ( according to your suggested consequences of it happening under a preferential final system)
There is no perfect system but some systems are going to decrease the chance of best horses being dudded eg one that is seeded and rewards based while a system that is simply random can always throw up the possibility of a 50/50 chance of being dudded (front line v back row)
Its not necessarily a 50/50 of being dudded by RBD. You can draw 6 or 10 but if you main danger draws bad its not end of the world. Once Seed 1 wins heat and picks gate 1 every other horse has been 100% dudded by your system. Every other horse is totally out of the game once the top 3yo wins his heat and draws 1. That is not what racing is about.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
I can handle being dudded by RBD in heat. I can't handle by that being dudded in the heat can in turn have severe repercussions.
Your system has so many negative consequences. Purely because Blitzern drew two he just beat American Dealer and Bondi Lockdown (who copped some whitewash after a horse broke). That opens door for Major Moth to draw good and also only have the lower rated Blitzern draw good alongside him. How is that fair to American Dealer and Bondi Lockdown? RBD is not perfect but it sure beats a system so easily open to throwing up unfair results. Its like how the more the AFL tinker with the rules the more unintended consequences there are.
All this because you don't want uncompetitive heats. Yet you want the final to be seed 1 leads and see if seed 2 can run them down the sprint lane.
Maybe but Blitzern won because he can always do that (just like Kimble could/did once), and he could do it in the final which a lotto system draw may present him anyway. Foremost Blitzern won because AB went to the top of AD's @r$e%o!e list and a horse galloped (something that can happen under any system)Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
Why are you saying that it is a given for seed 1 to win his heat but not seed 2? All the seeding does is separate them not give them a preferential heat draw. It just gives seeds 1,2 & 3 better chances of making the final/winning a heat and leaving the big clash until the final
I can see your point about handing a heat winner the ideal draw to lead but I guess I like to see champions win the classics and our sport/tracks really aren't always fair
I reckon we will have to agree to disagree to some extent as there are better things for both us to do/watch tonight :D
Dan got it totally wrong in his call to say that American Dealer restrained to let Bondi Lockdown in - Anthony Butt denied him the death then saw he might get the 1x1 so he pulled back to stop him getting that too - if I did that on the road the police would charge me with dangerous driving
Anthony Butt IMO was a disgrace
Congratulations to Lauriston - to breed both Oaks heat winners is some achievement
Not a bad night's work for the Stewart stable: 2 Derby heats and 2 Oaks heats (quinellaed both)
I had to laugh at the suggestion that Willie Go West after winning the NR 85-99 pace last night, would not be out of place in the Victoria Cup. He was a NR 82 before last night and was favourite and winner last night largely due to drawing barrier 1. It was his first Vic metro win. We are talking about taking on King Of Swing and Amazing Dream
Bondi Lockdown was checked by a galloping Go Dancing early which ruined Dunn’s attempts to keep the early edge over American Dealer, enabling the latter’s reinsman Anthony Butt to coolly glide to the breeze.
From there Butt was able to dictate and the pair played mid-race cat and mouse for which Bondi Lockdown in particular would pay a price in the closing stages. Still he boxed on for third, good enough to keep alive a shot at a second Group 1.
“I was thinking we’re gone here, so I was just happy to make it through,” Dunn said. “It didn’t work out … bit disappointing the way the race went.”
Butt said he had driven “to beat Bondi Lockdown really and it left us open to that other one late, but the winner went great – he’s come out and showed some speed”.
https://harnesslink.com/australia/em...ather-and-son/
I hope Aaron Dunn gets the chance to return the favour in the final
I notice Butt only got a caution for easing the pace
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...21#BNM02102110
Here are the draws
https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2021-1...01%2009%252F10
Ladies in Red 10
Bondi Lockdown 12
King Of Swing 13
Would all have like better
If I was Aaron Dunn I would seriously consider engaging Chris Alford, David Moran or Jason Lee
As impressive as King of Swing was winning over the mile at Menangle on Saturday night you would have to fancy Amazing Dream to do it again from the draw. Other than the King's inclusion it is a similar field to the Kilmore Cup.
Here is HRV's link to the draws
https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...p-1s-revealed/
Why don’t they spin the barrels when they are doing the Barrier Draws ? In the interests of integrity why not use the contactless tattslotto style barrels used by HRNSW. Leaves nothing open to conjecture .
I'm afraid we are only slowly learning how to put on a show Anne. Another alternative when we are out of lockdown would be like the gallops do - have weighted objects (horses, cups, whatever) that have the number on the bottom and the connections come up and choose one
Finally caught up with the Stewards Report (easy to forget what with how HRV hides them away)Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
RACE 3 – LATHER UP VICTORIA DERBY (1ST HEAT) (2650 MS)
Go Dancing was tightened and lost ground passing the 300m when Bide Our Time shifted in simultaneous to Tuppence shifting out resulting in Ozzie Playboy, who was following, being checked.
Aaron Dunn, driver of Bondi Lockdown, was cautioned for shifting ground in that approaching the 1600m he commenced to restrain Bondi Lockdown in an attempt to obtain the position following American Dealer NZ and when doing so shifted in when not clear of Bide Our Time which was tightened and shifted in resulting in Ozzie Playboy being checked and pacing roughly and Dessie Gee, which was following, being inconvenienced resulting in Go Dancing making contact with its sulky and pacing roughly. In not taking more severe action against Mr Dunn, Stewards were mindful that American Dealer NZ being steadied by its driver significantly contributed to this incident.
Anthony Butt, driver of American Dealer NZ, was cautioned for easing the pace in that approaching the 1600m as Bondi Lockdown was restrained he eased the pace in a manner which contributed to Bondi Lockdown causing inconvenience to runners behind.
Michael Stanley, driver of Soho Bollinger, pleaded guilty to a charge under Rule 163(1)(a)(iii) in that at approximately the 2500m he permitted Soho Bollinger to shift in when not clear of Go Dancing resulting in Go Dancing being checked and breaking gait resulting in Bondi Lockdown, American Dealer NZ and Ozzie Playboy being checked. In assessing penalty Stewards considered the relevant considerations as outlined within the HRV Stewards Minimum Penalty Guidelines, placing particular weight on Mr Stanley’s guilty plea and the circumstances of the incident which clearly displayed Mr Stanely commenced to take corrective measures prior to the incident occurring and that the racing manners of Soho Bollinger also contributed heavily. Stewards accordingly imposed a 2 week suspension of Mr Stanley’s licence to drive in races which was ordered to commence midnight 9 October 2021. Post-race veterinary examination of Go Dancing failed to reveal any significant abnormalities.
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/ste...l/?mc=BN021021
Butt and Stanley looked after. Stanley really is an ordinary driver
For the second time Ladies In Red really has been stitched up by the barriers in a big race
Barrier 10 has the worst record at Bendigo for the last 12mths with 12 wins from 193 starts
That is a 6.2% win rate or approximately 1 in 16
She is however better than 1 in 16
5 (Joanna) is the winningest barrier at 14.9% or better than 1 in every 7
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/tracks/bendigo/
Is Chris Alford driving Beach Music or Leer in the Oaks, at present he is listed as driving both
Star mare Amazing Dream is looking to re-write the record books and become the first mare to win the Victoria Cup.
http://www.harness.org.au/media-room...?news_id=49916
It is going to be very interesting to see Majestic Cruiser in the Vic Cup
Champion trainer Geoff Webster had him all the way until the middle of his 6yo season and although he was thereabouts in plenty of Gp2 and Gp3 Country Cups etc you would not have thought he was a Vic Cup horse
He is still only 6yo mind you and plenty of horses have their best seasons at 7 or 8
Majestic Cruiser. Hmm. It has won 5 of its 6 starts at Menangle for Jason Grimson, the first of which was only 21 days after running 7th at Melton for Geoff Webster. I rate Geoff Webster highly as a trainer based primarily on the absence of his name in steward reports over the decades. He had trained the horse for its entire career of 88 starts before moving to Grimson. It had only won 2 of its previous 35 starts prior to this.
Despite being a consistent performer over it career Geoff Webster must be scratching his head a little! I note in its Menangle starts it has only had one pre-race blood test, which I find strange given its previous form.
I note your tyre-pumping observation, Kev, that some horses have their best seasons as 7 or 8 year olds. But that "some", as you correctly suggest, is rare at Grand Circuit level. Take out King of Swing and Amazing Dream and it is a very poor field for a Victoria Cup. Given those two are likely to Quinella the race Majestic Cruiser could pick up a more than handy 30 grand for third. Unless it misses that terrific Menangle water, which must run a close second to Lourdes for its restorative powers.
True Trev, I never considered whether the best at 7yo or 8yo that I was thinking of were Grand Circuit class
I too thought the Cup looks very weak but for some reason could not bring myself to say it (not sure why?)
I suppose we thought Wolf Stride was on a better trajectory before his recent performances at his new stable
Speaking of 8yo's, it was probably hoped that General Dodge had come back a General this time, not a Corporal
Triple Eight may be emerging and he has won a Gp1 at Bendigo albeit against the also rans fronting up again here
How General Dodge was made favourite in the Kilmore Cup is beyond me as he has never raced beyond 2240 metres. He certainly hit an invisible brick wall at Kilmore after having been sucked along behind the leader in slow time before Amazing Dream said go. Nothing amiss, apparently, and this distance suits him. His barrier draw? Pass.
The Victoria Cup may not be the greatest field we have seen but the Derby is an absolute cracker and the Oaks is not far behind it
http://www.harness.org.au/racing/fie...s/?mc=BN091021
In the lead up to R1 the team were talking about getting some converts as today's gallops followers may carry over to tonight's racing
The favourite gallops and Kate Gath not at her best on the 2nd favourite who gets beaten by a nose - not what wins converts
If Lance is going to keep using Kerryn as a driver he might invest in a set of smaller silks
LOL and Kerryn just added that she wants a new cart
Fancy name posters for all the runners stalls tonight - maybe Bendigo were hoping for a crowd?
No Kev...that's what usually happens with the big races at Melton. There's quite a bit been done to customize the track for the production tonight, knowing that there won't be any on-course patrons.Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenger
Great coverage and insights so far...no down time, lots going on . The drone visions is well done.
The hour show from 4:30 was really good...the vision and sound of David Aitken was very insightful.
Enjoy the night, and top marks to HRV for the entertainment !