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1) Hez Matt Maguire
2) Royal Verdict
3) Jadahson (1 Emerg)
4) Devilish Smile
5) Im The Liberator
6) The Muskeg Express
7) Gold Ace
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8) Glengowan
9) Excel Stride
10) The Phantom
11) Sushi Sushi
12) A Bettor Punt
13) Our Major Mark
The did the right thing by Dornauf!Quote:
Originally Posted by Flashing Red
Royal Verdict V Gold Ace
If they go hard early, which they could - Matt Mcguire could try and hold, Devilish Smile could have a look (doubt it tho - better driven quiet), Luke McCarthy will go forward, I daresay Gold Ace will go forward it will set it up for Abettorpunt or Sushi Sushi. If Royal Verdict get it his own way I reckon he will have improved enough off last week to win.
Here is how I reckon it will look at the bell.
TP GG HMM RV
ES DS TME GA
OMM ABP SS
Major Mark might even head the 3wide line.
If theyve gone lead time and first half in <103 then Abettorpunt, Sushi Sushi or Devilish Smile will win. If they go 103-105 I reckon Gold Ace will win. If they go 105> Royal Verdict will win!
royal verdict might get the second up syndrome after a pretty tough run last week
Actually the more I look at this, the more I like a Devilish Smile. He was a top, top run last week. I think I have the winner in 3. Royal Verdict, Devlish Smile and Abettorpunt. Muskeg Express next best and dont discount Sushi Sushi and Gold Ace. Theres just too many chances this will be a no bet race, just sit back and watch!!!
royal verdict did hand up in the breeders crown
Beat me to it Buster, you are dead right, i reckon could be a great move for B Gath to lead and hand up. Devlish Smile is also fast beginner so may pop out for a look if lead is available. Problem for Royal Verdict tho, he could end up 3 the pegs if that happens. If Royal has sit will come home very fast as in Breeders last year.
Muskeg massive run last week and if bungles the start again will face near impossible mission, Gold Ace to come forward for the death seat, meanwhile Sushi and Abettorpunt looking for trail up to unleash their sit sprint...
Great race.
kiwi's take it again
Horses don't win the Vic Derby from the death generally. History shows for the most part it favours leaders, 2 hole horses and those in the 1-1.
The Muskeg Express for me he only has to come out safe and get a spot and you will see how good he is.
History has had a whole different group of horses. None of these horses have watched a Vic Derby so how are they supposed to know what happened with 12 completely different horses 12months ago and beyond!Quote:
Originally Posted by Flashing Red
Reading between the lines of the comment, it's arguably the strongest 3yo race of the season and certainly the most prestigious. When you are racing against the best 3yos in Australasia, you can't give and inch. Death seating or leading up the three wide train is giving and inch. Watch the last 10 Vic Derbies and tell me how many won it in the death....Quote:
Originally Posted by aussiebreno
History shows that Melbourne Cup winners for the most part are horses that have won at 2400m+ previously. But, I mean, they are horses after all. How are they to know that? How many of them have watched a Melbourne Cup race? Do you want to ignore that statistic as well??? :) Sure it's not the be all and end all but a little bit of trivia...
Whoever ends up in that position, all I'm saying is, that I don't envy them, not in that race anyway! :)
Gold Ace won the Sires stakes drawn 8 if he is in the same form I think he will win here, the draw means he should pay $3.
The Melb Cup example is FORM - FYI most horses have had to have won over 2300 even to get a start in the race.Quote:
Originally Posted by Flashing Red
And your right, its not just Vic Derby, but any races where a generalisation can be made that leader, behind leader and 1-1 will have a great chance and a big headstart on the opposition. But to make special note of it because its happened in completely different race that just happens to be an annual event is irrelevant imo.
But while we're at it (and for my love of the race) I will trawl through the last 10 Vic Derbys - not the vids just results page.
01 - Rare Gem. 3 Wide Middle. - on the same meeting Lyell Creek won from a 50m backmark....as a $1.30 favourite!!!
02 - Tricky Vic - Doesnt have where he sat in the run and I dont remember - but he drew back line.
03 - Bellas Boy - won from the carpark (may have went 3wide to the lead not 100% sure)
04 - The Sentry - 3wide to the lead. The fact they handed up shows he was better anyway.
05 - I think you'll remember this one lol
06 - Divisive won a lot of Derbies and has won a Miracle Mile so was better then his opp anyway. He sat leaders back.
07 - LPW led and spaced them - would have won from anywhere (despite being beaten in his heat)
08 - Tanabi Bromac 3wide the last lap
09 - Captain Joy in a canter when leading
10 - Courage to Rule 3wd, ended up 1-1 and chased down the more fancied leader.
So if you have a look at that the leaders got the lead because they were the best horse in the field and the other were running for 2nd. Overall it isnt more leader/front runner dominated then the average race imo. And especially this year where there isnt a clear cut boom horse going into the final. Its more like the Tanabi Bromac and Courage To Rule years when there were multiple chances.
Those results still show that they aren't winning from the death. I looked through the last 10 Vic Derbies and actually watched the entire replays for the last 5 this time last year! :) You may say the Melbourne Cup was a form example - but on the other side of the coint that doesn't explain why, each and every single year, jockies watch countless and countless of Melbourne Cup replays with their trainer's mount. To see where the winners have come from, when they made their moves, etc. You also can't use as an example races a horse won AFTER the fact to "prove" why they did win.
If the winner comes from the death, be it Gold Ace or not, it will be a very special win indeed. IMHO. it just isn't done. Horses win average races every day in the death. They don't in the Victoria Derby. Let's see if that will change in 2011. :) I don't think so, but it will be a thrill if it does and a great race to watch :)
You know what? You are right Breno. Had a mull over what you said while drinking my protein shake! Winning any stakes race is going to be harder in the death, or 3 wide without cover. But it still means that the horse that does and still wins, well it is a remarkable win indeed. Victoria Derby? No exception. But if Gold Ace is in the death and gets beat, the first thing I'll say was that it was his position in running! :P
Well if you knew the death isnt the spot to be why bloody drive your horse there!!!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Flashing Red
How do you know they all watch countless and countless replays. Everyone says the clock tower anyway. If they havent figured it out after the first time of watching the countless replays I dont think they will figure it out the 2nd time.
And why isnt form after the event relevant? Thats the most relevant guide imo. If a horse gets beat at $1.50 the trainer might be cranky but if the next week the horse that beat it goes out and wins a Group1 well the trainer wont be so cranky because he knows he ran into a goodun.
So lets look at horses who death seated.
09 - Crown Bromac. Who is that? A no-name
08 - Maffioso raced WELL below his best anyway.
07 - Singasongasixpence. Beaten 58m. Somehow I dont think even leaders back would have helped him
06 - $63 shot beaten 16m. How surprising a $63 shot didnt get handed the lead and kick clear in the straight.
05 - Badlands Bute beaten 6.5m. Good run so its like there is VicDerby curse for the death seat. He sat in the death in the QLD Derby and your bloke sat 1-2 and within a half length of him. So only a 1length turnaround from leading to sitting 1-2 - shows lead isnt the be all and end all!
04 - Zaneden - tired badly and needed a vets examination so didnt put in his full performance
That is where the detailed results on the harness.org results page finish. So there isnt exactly a VicDerby jinx on the death seat. It plays like every other race.
Putrid things protein shakes! And yep - would be remarkable if a horse wins from death - if Gold Ace can do it would be Christian Cullen like. Ok maybe Im getting carried away after all the reminiscing I just done going thru the previous Derbys lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Flashing Red
Good to see General Bronski win first up!!!
:)
I see Royal Verdict leading with Matt Maguire taking the sit behind, Devilish Smile & Im The Liberator heading for the one out to get cover from Muskeg Express and or Gold Ace( it might be to far to go back) who will be looking for Major Mark to come around and breeze with about 1200 to go, Glengowan 3 back on the rail with the rest one out off the rail waiting for action to happen. Thats why I like the second line horses Abettorpunt, Sushi Sushi and Glengowan(my dark horse) if the one's up front set a solid pace.
Thats my Thoughts on the Vic Derby
Watch this group 1 race Gold Ace wins after racing for the last 1200m 3wd without cover. http://racevideo.hrnz.co.nz/Videos/2...03207-0256.wmv
Nice win and he's a good horse but that was 3 wide on a lager track over 1940 and average fist half, this week he has a poor draw and will have to work early he will get the death or one out one back behind Muskeg Express I lernt nothing from his race last week due to the slow time except he has a sharp sprint to be able to put a gap between himself and the field.
If I was a betting man (oh that's right I am), then the Quinella of the week is Gold Ace to win, Muskeg Express a nose away second.
Nice field and I am looking forward to watching it. I always think the Vic Derby is the best of all the Derbies.
Just read on www.harness.org.au that The Muskeg Express died after trackwork this morning and obviously won't be lining up on Saturday Night. What a terrible blow to connections.
That would have to be one if the most terrible blows ever. That horse was going to be mature into a very very nice horse. Had more ability than anything in the derby field this weekend but probably the worst racing manners. RIP.
Terrible news.Quote:
Originally Posted by DAZZA
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sushi is a star, i didnt listen to the boys who were ultra confident the night before the race, they were very pumped after the win, saw them still pulling out the ear plugs in the presentation
He is a star and a nice looker as were all the runners in the derby he and Royal Verdict were stand outs for me, Sushi Sushi was the standout IMO at the 2009 sale and I marked him to go for big dollars yet he only went for $35,000 great return for as my old sparing partner on harnesslink Chag would say a Blueblood.