Mile Rates and such

Hello

I've been looking at the results for Devonport at Spreyton [there's a meeting Sunday there] and I've found that some of the lead times are ... unusual in relation to what you'd expect to see at a venue over that distance.

For example, there's a couple of 1700m races where the lead time [the distance between the start point and the 1609m mark, I think] is something in the order of between 2.9 and 3.4 seconds. Is anyone aware of why there'd be these kind of discrepancies in the lead times for Spreyton? I know Albion Park isn't averse to 3.4s lead times, but it tends to run its sprint races at 1660m, and this is suggesting almost twice the lead distance in approximately the same lead time; doesn't seem right. Also, the track is considered to be 1479m with 305m straights, but most of the quarter mile sections are logged as being in the 32 - 33 second range, even in the last half of the last mile. Are they running on a different kind of surface there, or are they a different distance to standard quarter-miles there? Running into a headwind, or just incorrect data?

Also, I've found that sometimes a quarter-mile won't be a particularly good measure of horse skill, especially since sometimes a horse might not get urged on if it's clearly running better than its rivals at the close of a race. The driver might only give the horse a mild incentive to run, and even then only halfway into the last quarter if it's already found a reasonable racing position, resulting in a quarter-mile that's split into, say:

One half of the last quarter in a leisurely 31 seconds [divided by 2 to represent 1/8 mile] = 15.5 seconds
Second half of the last quarter where they mean business in 28 seconds [divided by 2 to represent the second 1/8 mile] = 14 seconds

What this will mean is that the horse might well have been capable of doing the entire quarter in 28 seconds, but the last quarter will be written down in 29.5 because the driver didn't have to push the horse out to any degree based on the quality of its rivals. This represents a bit of a conundrum in solely relying on the raw data for mile rates and quarters as a measure of horse capability.

I'd be very interested to read about how other folks gauge how much pressure a horse is really under, since I'm noticing [even after a good length of time being interested in harness racing] just how little I really know about the sport.

Hey Roger, The Devonport at Spreyton race meetings are run on the tapeta surface (Carpet based) same track as the gallopers do there. Its a thick surface that definately makes the horses work much harder. The carts sink into the surface as well. Tasracing is currently trialling the pacers there but seems to favor front runners and horses that have been trained on the track. Very hard to bet on from a punters prospective, also the slow mile rates make it hard to follow form. There are alot of tired horses at the finish so they definately wouldnt need to increase the distances. Some horses seem to do well consistently but others dont run well on it at all. Will be intereseting to see what prospects Tasracing have to continue racing at this venue.

Now that makes more sense - although with a little more data from racing there, it'll get easier to follow the form; bit like trying to translate Mildura mile rates to Melton at the moment. Thankyou kindly

I guess the other issue is the clear errors in the lead times. There's a 3 second lead time on a 1700m race. I know that's quite simply not possible. There's a couple of instances where the 14th November data seems correct [around 8.9 seconds in the first race seems about right for the distance] but most of them are just wrong.

"What this will mean is that the horse might well have been capable of doing the entire quarter in 28 seconds, but the last quarter will be written down in 29.5 because the driver didn't have to push the horse out to any degree based on the quality of its rivals. This represents a bit of a conundrum in solely relying on the raw data for mile rates and quarters as a measure of horse capability."

Never rely on mile rates alone for a definitive line on ability.Quick way to poor house and we have plenty of other ways there,not least of which is a parochial mindset,favourite driver/trainer,breeding etc.etc.

Good advice, truly. I don't put money on horse racing of any kind though - just like to observe it and gauge the quality of horses, seeing whether they win soon enough after a good display of form.

I've found that the mobile harness site's results page is much more specific about what the conditions are, and class is, of a race than the full harness site. If you go to the normal results page, for a 3yo race you'll get "3YO" irrespective of whether it's a 3R0 or a Derby, whereas the mobile site will specify a lot more of the conditions of the race, even though it's supposed to be, in ideal, a more compact version of the harness site.

In any case, thank goodness for that, else I'd really struggle with grouping historical data on these kinds of races.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wholelotasound

Hey Roger, The Devonport at Spreyton race meetings are run on the tapeta surface (Carpet based) same track as the gallopers do there. Its a thick surface that definately makes the horses work much harder. The carts sink into the surface as well. Tasracing is currently trialling the pacers there but seems to favor front runners and horses that have been trained on the track. Very hard to bet on from a punters prospective, also the slow mile rates make it hard to follow form. There are alot of tired horses at the finish so they definately wouldnt need to increase the distances. Some horses seem to do well consistently but others dont run well on it at all. Will be intereseting to see what prospects Tasracing have to continue racing at this venue.

Hello Ben do you know if Tasracing is monitoring injury rates for pacers racing on the synthetic track? The US experience in gallops racing on synthetic tracks versus their traditional dirt tracks showed a reduction in catastrophic breakdowns but an increase in hind end soft tissue injuries. As the pacing/trotting horses in general suffer more hindleg injuries then their galloping counterparts as a result of their gait I am curious if the authorities are monitoring the possible effects of racing on a synthetic track. Would be interesting to know with regard to possible future racing opportunities for pacers on synthetic tracks.

Roger it does sound like the timing in some instances is just wrong. Synthetic track characteristics can vary considerably with variations in temperature but not like the lead time variations you describe.

Hey Dizzy, I doubt Tasracing are but there have already been a few reports from trainers of there horses pulling up muscle sore and flat (off there food) the next day or so, they have only had a few race meetings there, so proberly too early to see if any injury problems occur. Its definatley hard going for the horses. We gallop our horses on this track for track work but I personally wouldnt race a horse on it. Gavin Lang drove there on sunday would be interesting to hear his view.

According to the harness site, the Spreyton track is 1479m with 305m straights: this would make the radius of the turns fairly large.

From my data so far, the average time for 1st through 4th quarters are, respectively, 33.9, 33.6, 34.4 and 31.7. Compared to Menangle's averages [these are for the Tuesday, or C classes] of 28.4, 30.6, 29.2 and 28.2 [these averages are from about four to five months worth of data so far]. Even factoring in the difference in quality of the horses that race on each surface, the tapeta track is likely slowing the horses by upwards of 5%, and that's being generous.

Whether that translates to more physical stress on the horse, I couldn't say. It is possible though.

How are you factoring in quality or in this case factoring out quality to create a statistically significant analysis. It appears the only factor you are using is 1/4 mile rates.

What I'm suggesting is the same thing that's been posited before - that the horses have to work harder on the surface. Realistically, if the track was as easy to run on as say Melton or Menangle, then, assuming the ability of the horses were the same at Spreyton as said tracks [which I believe they are not] then the times run would indicate some degree of similarity. However, the times don't come anywhere near each other, even if you assumed that, generally speaking, Tasmanian horses were of lower ability than their mainland counterparts [again, something I consider to be mostly true].

So I feel as though I could reasonably infer that the track itself is slowing the horses to some degree; it's not intended as a significant analysis for presentation to the ABS.