Industry in crisis?? Smaller fields wherever you look

Whenever and wherever we look across Australia, we see race fields of less than maximum numbers. Despite Menangle's much vaunted "huge" prizemoney, fields there are always less than capacity. This isn't new, but it is getting worse. The industry depends on turnover for income. Turnover depends on large fields. Large fields depend on a large racing pool.There is no escaping the fact that we do not have enough racing stock. We used to top up from NZ, but they are in a similar situation, with breeding numbers also dropping.
In Australia, there are two factors for this.
1. Less foals being born.
2.Wastage (the loss of horses before racing, or racing stock retiring too early). This includes:- loss of foals (snakes are very bad this year), accidents in the paddock or at the breakers, training incidents, illness, premature 2yo racing, etc etc. This is a huge and important topic, and hopefully HRA is studying ways of reducing it. They should examine the percentage of live foals that actually get to the races, and the factors why they don't.
1. Less foals being born....
2002...6362 foals,
2011...4787,
a decrease of 24.5% in 9 seasons. This year will be down also. Remembering that there is a 4 year lead time from the decision to breed (or not), to becoming a regular member of the racing pool, most of the current racing pool was conceived in 2008 or before. The future pool numbers are already in place, our current 2yos, yearlings, foals and embryos. We cannot change this number (except by reducing future wastage). We can only increase the pool after that by increasing matings in the upcoming season. With declining numbers since 2008, the future looks bleak. We are not alone of course. The thoroughbreds have similar falling numbers, but we must find a solution for our industry.
To solve the problem, we must first understand the problem.
Factors:
Breeders. As they retire/pass on, they are not being replaced by enough younger ones with the same passion, foresight or patience to carry the industry forward. Farm inheritors are selling off the farms and breeding stock, many of them not finding new homes. We are losing the breeding families, both equine and human. This is also not a problem just for us. Other farm related traditions are coming to an end as younger generations move away from rural lifestyles. We have to be proactive in helping younger generations get involved in the breeding industry.
Land: Horses need high quality pasture, or the feed therefrom. Whether you believe in climate change or not, extreme weather behavior has increased the cost of quality "safe" land, which increases the agistment cost. Marginal land has become riskier, and don't even mention mining.
Costs: Always rising, but relativity is the issue. Agistment & vets used to be minor inputs, now they are major costs. It was easy to give a mare a year off if required, but now it too expensive. This leads to more mares being disposed of instead. I would like to see HRA produce figures for every 10 years from 1960 - 2010, showing the relativity of service fees, yearling prices and prizemoney. This may give us an idea in which direction we are heading. Agistment and vet fees may be harder to correlate.
Structure: Most successful business models are based on a pyramid model (party plan, franchises etc). AFL is a great example. They allocate vast resources of staff, equipment, marketing etc across the country, building up the grassroots network. This grows a bigger pyramid, with a higher quality product at the top. Harness racing evolved from this model, where farmers had horses that they trained and raced, but then it became a centralised showpiece, losing the country base. The authorities have reversed this recently with Country Cups, Carnival of Cups, regional heat racing etc, bringing the sport back to its roots.
Except for the breeding sector. There, we have a "cream of the crop" structure, with top stallions heavily patronised and top horses in all classes racing for high prizemoney. As dairy farmers say, " You cannot make cream without making a lot of milk". We have a strong demand for the top of the crop, either for quality yearlings, or promising racehorses. This is fuelled by those owners who want to be in the top races, but don't want to wait 4 years to achieve this. That is fine, but that is only about 5% of the horses we need to make the industry viable.
Returns: Prizemoney goes up, but once again it is all relative. We have statebred schemes, Vicbred, futurity and stakes races, breeders bonuses etc, but this is obviously not good enough, because
WE ARE STILL NOT BREEDING ENOUGH FOALS. The old business adage is "If you are not getting bigger, you are getting smaller". We are definitely getting smaller. Nobody is advocating breeding rubbish horses. There are plenty of commercial/successful sires who are under patronised. Every week there are quality mares on the "Trading Ring" for free or very little, but not many of them change hands for breeding purposes.
The broodmare owners are the ones deciding not to breed. This must change.
Broodmares: Currently only 65% of mares served produce a live foal. This figure has been in the 60 percentile for a long time, and I am not a vet, but wouldn't it be wonderful if we could get this up to 80 or 90%? The HRA should be working with vets and studmasters to see if it can be improved. I am guessing the human equivalent is much higher.
Conclusions:
We do not have enough racehorses.
There are less, not more, on the way.
Most of the industry promotes itself well, but if the trend is not reversed NOW, in a relatively short time there will be no industry to promote.
Please discuss

Could be wrong, but it might ebb and flow based on the state of the economy generally - as in, if people don't have cash to throw around, they don't usually spend it on a luxury like a horse.

I'm pretty sure that once it all gets going again, harness racing will be healthy as ever.

Excellent outline of our current situation Greg.
One solution is to extend the earning potential and racing lives of those horses that are being bred. The easiest way may be to concentrate on increasing the racing opportunities for fillies and mares. Handicapping and programming changes that extend the lives of horses that "reach their mark" under the current systems is another area of opportunity.

Have said it before and will say it again. There should not be any emphasis on 2 or 3 yr old racing. All feature racing should start at 4. To many babies are burned out by the time they get to 4 never to be seen again. I usually breed 2 or 3 a year, but rarely do i race them early on. If i do, they only have a handful of starts, so they understand what is going on then they go for a spell. How many young ones are raced to early before they are matured. It is sad to see, but if given the chance to develop before been pushed, you would see a lot more horses racing onto a later age, thus giving the industry a larger pool of horses. Problem is, it is the large breeders and the bigger owners with the deeper pockets, who are pushing for the 2 and 3 yr olds to race, just to get a quick return.

Hi Roger,
I am sure that economics play a part, but if your theory is correct, why didn't the foal numbers go up to where they used to be when the economy was booming?

Yes well written Greg, and largely accurate. Obviously reducing wastage rates and increasing racing opportunities for all stock is a part of becoming a more efficient industry but the heart of the problem is a lack of owners willing to participate in the industry. All the things you say Greg about losing breeders, selling off farms, rising costs etc is true but all of them can be overcome by an increase in demand. So the question is how do we have more people become interested in being involved in Harness Racing?

Firstly we need to look outside of our own interests for the answer. The big track at Menangle was supposed to be it but its not. The increased prizemoney is supposed to be it, but that isn't it either. Breeders schemes well that isn't it either. The Carnival of Cups now that may be part of the answer for they bring people to the track. So far we have focussed on doing what people in the industry wanted for themselves, eg faster times for mares meant more money for their yearlings at the sales type stuff, wrong if there isn't a demand for yearlings. Higher prizemoney makes it more affordable, only for those people who are winning it.

Harness Racing needs a new business model where it listens to wants and needs of our customers, the punters and owners, not the service providers such as breeders, trainers and drivers and our own administrators.

The punters I'm sure just want competitive racing that generates winners at worthwhile odds. The TAB says 12 horse fields are optimum yet we insist in NSW on building 10 horse tracks.

Owners would like to win money but nothing will change the likelihood that the vast majority will spend more then they can resonably expect to see in return and we need to create an experience that makes that investment worthwhile for them despite the finacial costs they may incur. Don't think it can be done? Yes it can if we look outside the square. Equestrian sport has no gambling revenue and minimal prizemoney yet has many owners who freely spend their money for the opportunity to be involved in sports that they love and ultimately attempt to achieve vicariously something that is out of reach of their own skills through the riders they support and that is the honour of representing your country. The right to wear the flag over your left breast pocket is simply something you cant put a price on for most people. Victoria's focus on the trotter and the Great Southern Star into the Elitlopp is a step in the right direction there.

And we need to develop a new market for our product, if their aren't enough locals wanting to be involved then we need to focus on developing our product to be attractive to our ever increasing numbers of tourists, particularly Asians at this the dawn of the Asian Century. We have something that is unique in this part of the world, we need to present it in a manner that is attractive, that means convienently located, interactive and with an emphasis on highlighting the visual spectacle.

But before we can embark on that journey we have much to do still by way of cleaning up our act, for their is no doubt that our continuing poor history in NSW on the integrity front has hurt us badly.

Our adminstration needs very much to lift its game on the transparency and disclosure front to increase public and therefore punter/owner confidence in Harness Racing. Our Swabbing procedures are not completely transparent, if you search out the stewards reports and race results you may find who has been swabbed, but then only postive results are published in press releases, leaving an assumption that the rest are negative but not the guarantee and subsequent confidence that publishing the results of all swabs would provide. Likewise publishing who's stables have been inspected and the results there of would be a further boost to transparency and confidence.

So that owners can make informed choices a trainer/driver directory should be available online that discloses a trainer/drivers complete history, not just their license grade and phone number but their history with regard to success rates on the track but also their history with regards to integrity matters. All offences listed on a permanent public record may make some in the industry think twice about the choices they make.

The government replaced The Freedom of Information Act with the Government Information Public Access Act which basically pushes information that is in the publics interest out into the public demain on the presumption that people want to know. I think harness racing needs people to know exactly how we conduct ourselves.

i think the reason the sport is in a mini crises is the poor admin in vic who used to be the leader in stakes .6 years ago our country fronts were worth $7000 today $3000-$5000 with less racing .metro stakes are about the same except there is only about 4-5 per week.if somebody in the know can tell me my the best administer in mark gloury who got addinton raceway out of total disaster to totally profitable ,come back to victoria and is not given the top job, is one off the reasons this sport has slip back 40% in money in real terms in 8 years.[in vic] i believe we are breeding enough horses ,but not enough owners. trainers are not prepared to lease horses now because 66% of 3-5 grand is not worth there while with the cost of today. last year in nz 3188 foal were bred 3409 raced 10 years ago 2002/03 4596 bred 3226 raced,figures dont lie,and ten years ago alot got exported to usa when the $ was low. demand for yearlings like anything else is supply and demand.has any one seen the yearling sales advertised in any other forum other then to the converted.there is so many country newspapers [weekly times ]etc a bit of a write up about upcoming sales ,explain to them it broadcast on the net, they might be surprised with the fine product[yes they have improved in the last 10 years].the last thing we need is breeding more horses that wont find a home,deflates prices ,waste more industry money, just promote the sport better starting with the yearling sales [nz is a fine example],thats were the dream starts,once we have more owners , we will get more tunover.

Quote:

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1. Less foals being born....
2002...6362 foals,
2011...4787,
a decrease of 24.5% in 9 seasons[/SIZE]. This year will be down also. Remembering that there is a 4 year lead time from the decision to breed (or not), to becoming a regular member of the racing pool, most of the current racing pool was conceived in 2008 or before. The future pool numbers are already in place, our current 2yos, yearlings, foals and embryos. We cannot change this number (except by reducing future wastage). We can only increase the pool after that by increasing matings in the upcoming season. With declining numbers since 2008, the future looks bleak.

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I'm interested in seeing the figures for the foal births for all the years in between 2002 and 2011, and I'd love to see the years prior. If you could point me in that direction, that'd be super.

NZ website ,under industry information annual report ,season stats page 26 interesting reading

IMO, there are a few major problems the Industry currently faces.

1) Presently there are simply not enough Owners on hand who are willing to race the current foal crop, let alone the Industry embarking on a course of breeding more foals. The HRA Breeders Panel did some excellent work, returned some fantastic statistical research and made a number of excellent suggestions however that particular aspect of their report (the breed more foals mantra) was a steaming great load of old bollocks if ever there was one.

2) The current number of horses that we do breed have long been scanadlously under-utilized either by way of having their racing careers greatly curtailed either by that which is effectively a 'force them out through the top' handicapping system... or otherwise by way way of a straight up lack of reasonable racing opportunities against their own sex (fillies and mares).
Wholesale changes in handicapping & a far more pragmatic approach to reasonable racing opportunities for the approx. 50% of the annual foal crop who's requirements we currently only give lip service to at best, fillies & mares, would be smart and welcome moves.

3) Hand in hand with (2) is a flipside...the furphy that young horses are annually being burned up. This is simply not the case.
Recent official studies & figures suggest the complete opposite, as compared to their predecessors the foals we are breeding these days are in fact getting to the track in far greater %'s / numbers, they are having more starts per age group & they are racing for longer. This goes directly to the HUGE increase in available sire quality that we have seen in the last decade.
The young horse being burned up routine is simply not a plausible reason why there are less horses racing/smaller fields. Instead, that aspect goes directly and inescapably back to the above (1)...a lack of Owners. It is no more no less complicated than that.


In conjunction with the above, when you then consider the ebb & flow of local, State, National & International economic conditions & how they are directly and indirectly impacting on the above, none of the problems that we & numerous other Industries face should come as any great suprise. We can go into each and every aspect and disect the nitty gritty of this & that & the other & that's by no means a bad thing because it keeps things sharp & focussed...but ultimately & inescapably, $$$money$$$ fixes everything.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaiSHcHM0PA

www.harness.org.au/hra/annual/public/stats/regn_all.pdf

http://infohorse.hrnz.co.nz/dochr/hrnz/annualreport/annual2012.pdf

page 26 has the breeding industry stats

A Look at the Annual Foal Crop- These are the North America Foal crop numbers published in the Harness Racing Update.
Foal Year Foals
1987 22,911
1988 22,183
1989 20,894
1990 19,858
1991 18,346
1992 17,001
1993 16,225
1994 15,062
1995 14,458
1997 14,249
1998 14,001
1999 13,717
2000 14,475
2001 14,683
2002 15,031
2003 15,197
2004 15,256
2005 14,909
2006 14,106
2007 13,149
2008 12,228
2009 11,452
2010 10,579
2011 9,859
2012 8630*
*Estimate

Roger I think there might be a bit more then just economic fluctuations happening.


VVV where is that money tree that will fix everything?

I could be wrong, but it looks like the numbers of sires and live foals have been in decline since the mid-to-late 1980s.

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Originally Posted by Triple V

IMO, there are a few major problems the Industry currently faces.

1) Presently there are simply not enough Owners on hand who are willing to race the current foal crop, let alone the Industry embarking on a course of breeding more foals. The HRA Breeders Panel did some excellent work, returned some fantastic statistical research and made a number of excellent suggestions however that particular aspect of their report (the breed more foals mantra) was a steaming great load of old bollocks if ever there was one.

2) The current number of horses that we do breed have long been scanadlously under-utilized either by way of having their racing careers greatly curtailed either by that which is effectively a 'force them out through the top' handicapping system... or otherwise by way way of a straight up lack of reasonable racing opportunities against their own sex (fillies and mares).
Wholesale changes in handicapping & a far more pragmatic approach to reasonable racing opportunities for the approx. 50% of the annual foal crop who's requirements we currently only give lip service to at best, fillies & mares, would be smart and welcome moves.

3) Hand in hand with (2) is a flipside...the furphy that young horses are annually being burned up. This is simply not the case.
Recent official studies & figures suggest the complete opposite, as compared to their predecessors the foals we are breeding these days are in fact getting to the track in far greater %'s / numbers, they are having more starts per age group & they are racing for longer. This goes directly to the HUGE increase in available sire quality that we have seen in the last decade.
The young horse being burned up routine is simply not a plausible reason why there are less horses racing/smaller fields. Instead, that aspect goes directly and inescapably back to the above (1)...a lack of Owners. It is no more no less complicated than that.


In conjunction with the above, when you then consider the ebb & flow of local, State, National & International economic conditions & how they are directly and indirectly impacting on the above, none of the problems that we & numerous other Industries face should come as any great suprise. We can go into each and every aspect and disect the nitty gritty of this & that & the other & that's by no means a bad thing because it keeps things sharp & focussed...but ultimately & inescapably, $$$money$$$ fixes everything.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaiSHcHM0PA

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I think you are on the money with this thread.

For someone who is relatively youngish I returned to the sport i LOVED but the problem is simple, PRIZEMONEY.
I race both gallopers and Pacers and I cannot believe the fees trainers charge, I know they cannot help it due to the costs and this is where the administraters need to get it right.
My gallopers pay for pacers and believe it or not I pay $40 a day plus extras in the gallops and minimum prizemoney is $8500 (country),much more provincial. I pay nearly that in Harness racing where the majority of races are either $3000 or $5000. if you want to compare the city rates to prizemoney then there is no comparison.
I have invested heavily in pacers and to run it straight it would be run at a loss. There has to be incentives for owners and also trainers and drivers, maybe Menangle's prizemoney is too much maybe spread it around. I feel absolutely sorry for breeders as I can buy yearlings for less than service fee, that too happens in the other industry but I find you could lease a galloper much more easier than a pacer.
Finally, maybe making it harder to buy horses from NZ (My mother is a kiwi) so it's not personal but it means another import is taking the place of a local horse foaling and starting it's career. I remember many years ago they use to have sires stakes races and attached to that were owner/breeder bonuses, does that still happen in Provincial/Country racing?

Todays Bulli at Menangle meeting, attractive in the fact there are a couple of up and comers going around but woeful numbers. One race has 9 going around, 2 have 8, 3 have 7 and 2 have 6. One $3K, one $6K, the rest are worth $10K. If the powers that be can't see a problem with that then we are r*#ted. As a betting proposition this meeting is a basket case!