Newcastle Mile 204

Who will win the Newcastle Mile this year? Only 11 nominations for a $75,000 race which also provides the winner with a free pass into the MM. Will anyone be able to beat SSL (or will the draw of 10 be his undoing ) on his home track? By the trial results SSL can run 1:55 at Newcastle any time. Maybe Avonnova (not from 9). Chariot King might give it a shake from barrier 2. Teo Enteo gets his chance to stamp himself a genuine group 1 horse.

Now that the Treuer Memorial is all but dead the time is right for the Newcastle Mile to be given group 1 status with the addition of the required boost in prizemoney.

I'm happy to pot the fav Toni. I can't see Stuey clearing Avonnova who is drawn directly inside him. I got Teo first to the pegs, crossed by Avonnova with Panella putting on the speed that will result in a track record (still held by Pay Me Christian I think) weather permitting.
I'll take the quinella, Avon/Teo.

Beautide desroyed the track record last year.


Pretty poor support raves compared to last years card.

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Originally Posted by The Escape Club

Beautide desroyed the track record last year.

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My bad.
The way the race looks on paper I will still stick with the prediction of the record being lowered......high 51 or low 52.

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Originally Posted by The Escape Club

Beautide desroyed the track record last year.


Pretty poor support raves compared to last years card.

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They had to extend the nominations for this meeting twice, til 3pm on Monday and then til 9:30am on Tuesday.

http://www.harnesslink.com/Internati...-strong-attack



He is flying at the moment and is still the one to beat regardless of the draw,” Tritton said. “Avonnova is likely to find the lead first from nine, but I’m more than happy to sit outside him and still run 1:50.

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Originally Posted by trish

http://www.harnesslink.com/Internati...-strong-attack



He is flying at the moment and is still the one to beat regardless of the draw,” Tritton said. “Avonnova is likely to find the lead first from nine, but I’m more than happy to sit outside him and still run 1:50.

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Lol, appreciate Tritton's confidence and showmanship but if Stuey can sit outside and beat Avonnova running 1.50 at Newcastle I will do a nudie at Menangle on Miracle Mile night.

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Originally Posted by aussiebreno

Lol, appreciate Tritton's confidence and showmanship but if Stuey can sit outside and beat Avonnova running 1.50 at Newcastle I will do a nudie at Menangle on Miracle Mile night.

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I agree with your opinion but as I'm not a gambler and I would like to see crowds increase not decrease I won't be that brave. :-)

as long as Avonnova travels well & settles in well he will grind this field into submission - I expect the team will learn from their last start & come out hard - obviously SSL is the danger especially if Avonnova gets the expected "attention" from some of the other runners - I think Chariot King will run a cheeky race - should be a cracker

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Originally Posted by HISGEN65

as long as Avonnova travels well & settles in well he will grind this field into submission - I expect the team will learn from their last start & come out hard - obviously SSL is the danger especially if Avonnova gets the expected "attention" from some of the other runners - I think Chariot King will run a cheeky race - should be a cracker

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Chariot King Opened $1.83 Fixed odds to place with TAB. There is a risk Marty Monkhouser or something else hooks into him, but he has the gate speed to find the pegs first, get a nice run and on current form he is the third best horse in the race anyway.

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Originally Posted by Race For Fun

They had to extend the nominations for this meeting twice, til 3pm on Monday and then til 9:30am on Tuesday.

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Last year they ran heats for the $50k support races that are run on MM day.

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Originally Posted by aussiebreno

Lol, appreciate Tritton's confidence and showmanship but if Stuey can sit outside and beat Avonnova running 1.50 at Newcastle I will do a nudie at Menangle on Miracle Mile night.

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Breeding for colt Nudobreno - Embarassing x This Isnt Pretty

If SSL wins maybe aussiebreno can do his run down the back straight at Menangle, if they have the normal cameras he will be that far away that his dignity will be protected. :cool:

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Originally Posted by aussiebreno

Lol, appreciate Tritton's confidence and showmanship but if Stuey can sit outside and beat Avonnova running 1.50 at Newcastle I will do a nudie at Menangle on Miracle Mile night.

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1.50(sub)sitting outside the leader would be an astonishing run around Newcastle and I'll be absolutley gobsmacked if SSL can do this, Not doubt that Stuey has speed to burn and has proven he can go Sub 1.50 at Menangle but Newcastle is a whole different kettle of fish.

NSW iForm predicting Suave Stuey Lombo will lead. I think we already know that Avonnova will get to the pegs first & hold the lead. Suave Stuey Lombo sits in the death. The pace will be on the whole way...no breather in this one. If SSL can sit in the death for the entire trip & win in track record time then i take my hat off to him. My tip is Avonnova & he is still value @ $3 with sum bookies rather than $1.70, $1.80 about SSL.

Why do I get the feeling that both Nova and Stuey will get rolled? If I had to choose between them, I'd have to go with Avonnova :)

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Originally Posted by MJD

NSW iForm predicting Suave Stuey Lombo will lead. I think we already know that Avonnova will get to the pegs first & hold the lead. Suave Stuey Lombo sits in the death. The pace will be on the whole way...no breather in this one. If SSL can sit in the death for the entire trip & win in track record time then i take my hat off to him. My tip is Avonnova & he is still value @ $3 with sum bookies rather than $1.70, $1.80 about SSL.

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Reckon your spot on Mathew.

SSL (8) didn't come close to crossing Avon (3) in the Len Smith earlier this year and surely that feat becomes even tougher with them drawn side by side tonight. Therefor, the markets out there are way off IMO.....I marked them $2.50, $3- Avons way. That said, I'm not totally discounting Stuey. He did sit outside and beat stablemate Mach Beauty in 1:49.6 earlier this year.

I took what I thought was the value earlier in the week.....Avon @ $4.20 + the field to beat Stuey @ $2-

Should be a great spectacle. The question is......will Breno be reaching for the rosary beads when they come to the 400??

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Originally Posted by brent_L

Reckon your spot on Mathew.

SSL (8) didn't come close to crossing Avon (3) in the Len Smith earlier this year and surely that feat becomes even tougher with them drawn side by side tonight. Therefor, the markets out there are way off IMO.....I marked them $2.50, $3- Avons way. That said, I'm not totally discounting Stuey. He did sit outside and beat stablemate Mach Beauty in 1:49.6 earlier this year.

I took what I thought was the value earlier in the week.....Avon @ $4.20 + the field to beat Stuey @ $2-

Should be a great spectacle. The question is......will Breno be reaching for the rosary beads when they come to the 400??

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Cheers mate. Yes dont know how iform thinks SSL will lead. As you said it is more difficult to cross when drawn next door to each other. Early advantage Avonnova. I took $4.20 Avonnova with bookmakers.com.au. It is now $3. SSL beat Beautide in 2 of his recent wins. Beautide had to sit parked in 1:50 mile rate which is hard to do & SSL will hav to do the same here. Not knocking SSL's talent at all, will just be difficult to sit outside leader over the mile when they run 1:51. Track record is 1:52.6 which i think will be smashed! It will be a great race to watch.

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Originally Posted by Smoken

Why do I get the feeling that both Nova and Stuey will get rolled? If I had to choose between them, I'd have to go with Avonnova :)

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If they go way too fast & stop in the straight watch for the swoopers. What is too fast though as track record will go.

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Originally Posted by Smoken

Why do I get the feeling that both Nova and Stuey will get rolled? If I had to choose between them, I'd have to go with Avonnova :)

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I reckon you could be right, Panella will just keep attacking.

Is there any chance of one of the other Tritton runners finding the pegs first, refusing to hand up to Avon but then handing up to SSL?

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Originally Posted by Messenger

Is there any chance of one of the other Tritton runners finding the pegs first, refusing to hand up to Avon but then handing up to SSL?

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Nope. Probably 5 first to pegs, if not 2.

You would think not Kev. I think Teo Enteo has a shot at them if they burn hard, along with Chariot King!

That was an interesting point that Tritton made......N Jack was on in the Len Smith and the horse comes out better for Panella.

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Originally Posted by brent_L

That was an interesting point that Tritton made......N Jack was on in the Len Smith and the horse comes out better for Panella.

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As Panella is the regular driver you would expect her to know the horse better than a one off driver. Having said that in the Len Smith there was probably 6 or 8 horses trying to get a position in the first 4 or 5 top positions out of the gate. Some of the races SSL has won lately at Menangle may not have had as many as keen to take him on at the start.

Too good Avonnova! Tritton was maybe a little to confident in stating SSL can sit outside Nova and beat him and smash the record.. Not tonight Shane :)

Queenslander Avonnova that was awesome! Led all the way & withstood all the pressure from Suave Stuey Lombo. Massive win! Had $10 @ $4.20. Stood on the fence trackside watching it.

Good stuff Mathhew! I wanted Nova to win, and happy he did! Hope he wins the Miracle Mile! SSL ran a bold race, and barrier draws will play a role in the MM quite a bit I say.

Good stuff Matthew, your cheering got us over the line. It all went down as scripted.
The 2014 Newcastle mile is paying for a 2015 Vegas trip with the missus.

Broke Beautide's track record by 0.4 second, about 5 or 6 metres quicker.

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Originally Posted by brent_L

Good stuff Matthew, your cheering got us over the line. It all went down as scripted.
The 2014 Newcastle mile is paying for a 2015 Vegas trip with the missus.

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I thought some of you blokes would have made a killing. I don't know why I rarely bet!

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Originally Posted by brent_L

Good stuff Matthew, your cheering got us over the line. It all went down as scripted.
The 2014 Newcastle mile is paying for a 2015 Vegas trip with the missus.

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Was awesome! How much did you put on?

Was awesome! All worked out as planned with Avonnova in front. Knew Suave Stuey Lombo & Lauren would put the pressure on. For Avon to shake off SSL after withstanding the constant pressure was massive!

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Originally Posted by MJD

Was awesome! How much did you put on?

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You don't ask that Matthew.

ps you could always price a trip to Vegas for two and divide it by 3 ;)

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Originally Posted by Messenger

I thought some of you blokes would have made a killing. I don't know why I rarely bet!

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Just one of those races that stood out as soon as u saw it I suppose Kev (I was all in on Tuesday as post #2 shows). U just knew it was going to be a 'last man standing' affair as the reward was a spot in the Miracle Mile. I'm still scratching my head as to how SSL was sent out an even money favourite, especially as the consensus in here was so lopsided.

Special mention to Teo Enteo.....puts in every start although he looks to lack that extra length needed to beat the top liners. And spare a thought for Bart Cockburn. He'd be along for this dream ride on Avonnova if it weren't for one poor decision he made in the Sunshine Sprint.

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Originally Posted by brent_L

Nope. Probably 5 first to pegs, if not 2.

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What did the Trifecta pay?? Good on ya Brent, Been to Vegas with the cheese and kisses and I know exactly what it costs. Don't know if you had a crack at the Trifecta but yourself and Smoken had touched on it in order.

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Originally Posted by The Escape Club

Broke Beautide's track record by 0.4 second, about 5 or 6 metres quicker.

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Massive run by Avonnova, He's a pretty serious horse and will be hard to catch in the MM with the right draw. It was a massive call by S.Tritton to say that SSL could sit outside him and to go 1.50 around Newcastle but full marks to Lauren and SSL for giving it a shot at least.

All credit to Avonnova and Shane Graham. Showed exactly why I don't bet at all, I said in my opening post that I didn't think he could win from the 9 gate. More than happy to say that I was wrong. It was a win full of guts as he worked all the way through the run. Lauren made him work all the way and he was right up to the task. Big call by Shane Tritton to say SSL could go around 1:50 sitting in the death. I think they might have to do the upgrade to the track before anyone worries about the 1:50 mark being a reality at Newcastle. There I go making predictions again..........

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Originally Posted by Race For Fun

All credit to Avonnova and Shane Graham. Showed exactly why I don't bet at all, I said in my opening post that I didn't think he could win from the 9 gate. More than happy to say that I was wrong. It was a win full of guts as he worked all the way through the run. Lauren made him work all the way and he was right up to the task. Big call by Shane Tritton to say SSL could go around 1:50 sitting in the death. I think they might have to do the upgrade to the track before anyone worries about the 1:50 mark being a reality at Newcastle. There I go making predictions again..........

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Exactly right Toni, The track would need an upgrade before the magical 1.50 mark is reached around Newcastle, Going on last nights time, The horses are still 30 odd metres away from this mark.

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Originally Posted by Richard prior

What did the Trifecta pay?? Good on ya Brent, Been to Vegas with the cheese and kisses and I know exactly what it costs. Don't know if you had a crack at the Trifecta but yourself and Smoken had touched on it in order.

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Not sure of the Tri but quinella was 8.90 so I'd guesstimate at around 35-40. Breno was also pretty bullish about Chariot King so we pretty much had it surrounded.
Cheers