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Thread: Different Aspects to Programming

  1. #1
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Different Aspects to Programming

    Interesting to hear HRV CEO David Martin's comments on the radio earlier this week. Whilst he stated he's still getting his head around race programming, which is fair enough, he did say he was interested in looking into some programming based on a horse's average times. The example given was for it's last ten starts. For a long time HARNESSWEB has listed averages for the last 10, 6, 5, 4, 3.

    If someone wants to bring up the breeding mediocrity argument...good on them, but we're struggling for numbers to keep the sport going and we need to support the HERO programme to the hilt.
    You can't guarantee going to Bettors gives you a champ, the broodmare gem is truly a gem.
    Understandably, especially(?) considering the intended whip ban, there is a line of thought drivers won't drive their horses out to get a slower average time.
    My thoughts:
    The "not trying" rule is heavily policed by stewards,
    Interesting David mention 10 starts not 6, 5...Without doing the maths you'd need to carry an anchor in 3 or more starts to seriously effect your average. And the liklihood would be those starts being the last 4 or 5 starts, so it would be fairly obvious(?). You need to take into account, even if you have a horse that is performing poorly it will likely be sucked along in a quick time or two so you might need to go in reverse to significantly slow your average down.
    And query improved performance might be looked at more closely.

    I posted in another thread, a while back, asking about Albury as an example of races programmed on times in the past. Anyone with experience there?
    Last edited by teecee; 04-24-2017 at 08:44 PM.

  2. #2
    aussiebreno
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    Different Aspects to Programming

    Interesting to hear HRV CEO David Martin's comments on the radio earlier this week. Whilst he stated he's still getting his head around race programming, which is fair enough, he did say he was interested in looking into some programming based on a horse's average times. The example given was for it's last ten starts. For a long time HARNESSWEB has listed averages for the last 10, 6, 5, 4, 3.

    If someone wants to bring up the breeding mediocrity argument...good on them, but we're struggling for numbers to keep the sport going and we need to support the HERO programme to the hilt.
    You can't guarantee going to Bettors gives you a champ, the broodmare gem is truly a gem.
    Understandably, especially(?) considering the intended whip ban, there is a line of thought drivers won't drive their horses out to get a slower average time.
    My thoughts:
    The "not trying" rule is heavily policed by stewards,
    Interesting David mention 10 starts not 6, 5...Without doing the maths you'd need to carry an anchor in 3 or more starts to seriously effect your average. And the liklihood would be those starts being the last 4 or 5 starts, so it would be fairly obvious(?). You need to take into account, even if you have a horse that is performing poorly it will likely be sucked along in a quick time or two so you might need to go in reverse to significantly slow your average down.
    And query improved performance might be looked at more closely.

    I posted in another thread, a while back, asking about Albury as an example of races programmed on times in the past. Anyone with experience there?[/QUOTE]
    Border hop from Riverina 800m tracks averaging 2.02 to take on those racing 1000m tracks averaging 2.00. Race at Penrith and Bankstown and then head to Menangle.
    Last edited by teecee; 04-24-2017 at 08:46 PM.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by aussiebreno View Post
    Border hop from Riverina 800m tracks averaging 2.02 to take on those racing 1000m tracks averaging 2.00. Race at Penrith and Bankstown and then head to Menangle.
    I'm a bit slow on the uptake Breno. Are you talking about like for like, apples with apples? In the radio interview consideration was given to somehow factoring in 800 metre circuits averaging slower times. I might be looking at it too simply (no comment Kev lol)....if I've interpreted your post correctly, wouldn't people cotton on you could work the system...you'd end up with like for like slower horses at Menangle? Or are you looking at a possible PBD advantage?
    Could average times, with a circuit size factor incorporated, be used in the PBD system?
    What factor do you use Breno for the border hoppers? Around 3 seconds?
    Last edited by arlington; 04-21-2017 at 05:01 PM.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    The Harness Racing Victoria (HRV) Board has announced all Group 2 and 3 Victorian country pacing cup races will be run as preferential barrier draw (PBD) events in season 2017-18.
    http://www.harness.org.au/news-artic...?news_id=33330

    Also includes this link to David Martin's interview referred to in post #89
    https://audioboom.com/posts/5828560-...-trots-program If you have a spare half hour, some interesting listening on a range of topics.

    In regards to programming on average times there's a bit about the Vic supplementary races (starts around the 20:20 mark of the interview). Pretty sure times aren't in the criteria for field selection and barrier draws, in supp races, but it could be a start using the supp races or are they being used?
    Last edited by arlington; 04-21-2017 at 05:16 PM.

  5. #5
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by arlington View Post
    I'm a bit slow on the uptake Breno. Are you talking about like for like, apples with apples? In the radio interview consideration was given to somehow factoring in 800 metre circuits averaging slower times. I might be looking at it too simply (no comment Kev lol)....if I've interpreted your post correctly, wouldn't people cotton on you could work the system...you'd end up with like for like slower horses at Menangle? Or are you looking at a possible PBD advantage?
    Could average times, with a circuit size factor incorporated, be used in the PBD system?
    What factor do you use Breno for the border hoppers? Around 3 seconds?
    I didn't hear the radio segment re factoring in circuits but it will never be equitable given same sized tracks play differently and the same track plays different on different days. Good idea in theory to even things up has flaws that will result in inequalities.

    Around 3 seconds is pretty close to the mark for most tracks.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year arlington will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by aussiebreno View Post
    I didn't hear the radio segment re factoring in circuits but it will never be equitable given same sized tracks play differently and the same track plays different on different days. Good idea in theory to even things up has flaws that will result in inequalities.

    Around 3 seconds is pretty close to the mark for most tracks.
    And, of course, you'd have to rule out a slower time due to interference. Not sure how or if the gallopers take different tracks as well as track ratings on the day in their weight/ratings assessment.

    I think it's worth exploring, thought about it reading Kev's Why Is It So, speed explosion, thread and reasons why hobbyists seemingly steered clear of the Autumn APG sale.
    Has focussing on speed, that is, track records been detrimental to harness racing? In the case of the APG sale, fantastic times are still run in R races.
    Does thoroughbred stallion marketing focus on speed? Has speed maintained the health of North American harness racing?

  7. #7
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    The other thing I think needs exploring is the reasoning behind all these suggested changes.
    Is it still about reducing the number of Odds On favourites because they hurt turnover?
    I am not convinced that they do - which pools the money goes into are definitely affected (eg First Four instead of Win) but I am not convinced the total is.
    We have to have a sound premise behind any change
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  8. #8
    Senior Member 3YO strong persuader has a spectacular aura about strong persuader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arlington View Post
    And, of course, you'd have to rule out a slower time due to interference. Not sure how or if the gallopers take different tracks as well as track ratings on the day in their weight/ratings assessment.

    I think it's worth exploring, thought about it reading Kev's Why Is It So, speed explosion, thread and reasons why hobbyists seemingly steered clear of the Autumn APG sale.
    Has focussing on speed, that is, track records been detrimental to harness racing? In the case of the APG sale, fantastic times are still run in R races.
    Does thoroughbred stallion marketing focus on speed? Has speed maintained the health of North American harness racing?
    Can't remember his name, but he was the owner or part owner of Grinfromeartoear and when he was out in Aus promoting the stallion he did an interview on In The Gig.

    The subject of times came up and he said that times were really irrelevant as even moderate horses in the US could run 1:50 at the time. He said that when discussing horses, the only criteria he used was how much it had won and who it had beaten.
    Warning: Horses are expensive, addictive, and may impair the ability to use common sense.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Stallion Showgrounds is just really nice Showgrounds is just really nice
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    Quote Originally Posted by strong persuader View Post
    Can't remember his name, but he was the owner or part owner of Grinfromeartoear and when he was out in Aus promoting the stallion he did an interview on In The Gig.

    The subject of times came up and he said that times were really irrelevant as even moderate horses in the US could run 1:50 at the time. He said that when discussing horses, the only criteria he used was how much it had won and who it had beaten.
    That was Tom Crouch of Kentuckiana Farms, if my memory is still working. I reckon he was right, too, because we have horses running 1:50 at Menangle in restricted classes.

    In my day, hoses would only do that standing in a float!

  10. #10
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Showgrounds View Post
    That was Tom Crouch of Kentuckiana Farms, if my memory is still working. I reckon he was right, too, because we have horses running 1:50 at Menangle in restricted classes.

    In my day, horses would only do that standing in a float!
    Love it Trevor
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