17th April
Rc1 - crap race. Dawn of a New Brew worked home nicely last start and Auckland Star did show better than this at one stage. Both worth a little nibble at around $20.
1/2 unit W and 1.5 unit Place Dawn of a New Brew and Auckland Star
Rc4 - I thought it was between the 2, 3 and 4 but at the price am swayed to the 3 Presidentialattack, finished close up behind NR55 horses that are good at that level, drops to 50 against horses who haven't really excelled at this level. Hoping drawn inside Ab Fab it can get a better run. Think Maniac probably needs easy lead and everything to go right, which is a distinct possibility but probably priced correctly.
2 units W Presidentialattack
Rc5 Sure Bet Shannon goes well and drawn pole will run a sneaky race, entertain a place bet and saver win bet. But bet of the day for mine is Hanover Sunshine. Fantastic at Cobram and then had to it hard against a horse that will win quite a few more races in Andreamer last week.
1/2 unit win, 3 unit place Sure Bet Shannon
6 unit win Hanover Sunshine
Rc6 Can't split Chip Ganassi and Redbank Harry here. Think they've been running the best times lately out of this field.
1 unit W Chip and Harry
Rc8 Ever weary of Man Hands who at her best probably annihilates these but questions marks over whether she is at her best and Blake Jones has elected to drive Rocky Branach here. Time Keepa Lombo should be close up to but on the basis of running some slick times and drawn to lead Georgie Martin looks a pretty good bet here.
5 units win Georgie Martin
22.5unit spend
Forgot to add, how about taking $2.60 about Trunkey Tash in Rc7. Wouldn't touch with someone elses money. Won its NR55 race in a 31.6 final qtr and comes up against horses like Cee Cee Armbro and Mach Sam who have a little bit of class. Tash will probably lead and over a mile that goes a long way to winning but to touch the $2.60 would be brave.
Can find a galloper.Originally Posted by aussiebreno
Rc1 Auckland Star galloped at start, Dawn of a New Brew ran home ok but ran up a few deadends possibly could have placed with a bit of luck. Keep following it if its going to start those prices in this grade
Rc4 2nd beaten fair and square
Rc5 Hanover Sunshine galloped miss start hopelessly - personal final mile probably shits this in. Sure Bet Shannon 2nd for 6.3units returned
Rc6 Chip galloped and Harry 4th would have won with a clear run
Rc8 Finally a change of luck for a sprint lane win. 16 units returns.
0.2unit loss for the day with 3 gallopers including largest stake! But laying Trunkey Tash in Rc7 would have seen a win.
Nice effort Brendan and created a bit of interest
It takes courage to put your tips out there for others
per un PUGNO di DOLLARI
April 19
Rc1 Shadow Sign should get the leaders back here and prove to good up the sprint lane. 5units win
Rc2 Sit Down Walter down massively down in grade and has been running on ok in slick times. Gets his chance to win here but is about the right place. 3units win
Rc4 Zoes Regal down in grade a little bit and under PBD still gets straight into the running line here rather than drawn out in 8. Don't think the barriers for PBD are done properly but Zoe could take advantage here. 2unit win
Rc5 Red and Nobbys Clock are the superior horses in the race but the market has well and truly found them. Phyric Dancer been running on nicely, probably lacks gate speed to lead but should be close enough from 2. We'l go 3unit win and 5unit place on him. 1/2 unit W Calculated Risk and 1 unit place
Rc7 No bet but good race here - if you watch one all day tune in for this one
Rc8 Take the quinella 1 and 3 should be leader and leaders back and probably the best two in the race from there. 5unit quinella, 3units on the #1 to win the race
Spend 27.5 units
Rc1 Shadow Sign didn't come off the arm so ended up death seating but still got up by a nostril. 12.5 units return
Rc2 Sit Down Walter 2nd beaten fair and square
Rc4 Zoes Regal no good at all, either a poor run or a poor selection
Rc5 Red was too good but Pyhric Dancer went shocking. Calc Risk got dragged back behind tiring horses from the 500m -300m mark otherwise might have been half a chance for 3rd at big odds.
Rc7 Whereyabinboppin a smart horse!
Rc8 So close to the quinella. Delghtful Jackie got up the sprint lane and won for 7.5unit return but unfortunately Hilly ran past Irish Shenanigans into 2nd. Don't know how because I though Irish would have beat him comfortable having lead.
20unit return for a 7.5unit loss, unfortunately pretty close with Sit Down Walter and the Quinella in the last that would have made a great day.
Last edited by aussiebreno; 04-19-2020 at 08:36 PM.
Thanks Brendan - it gives us an interest
per un PUGNO di DOLLARI
Just as long as it doesn't send anyone broke!
Last 12 months haven't had time to do form with work being hectic. Much of my punting is based on odds available but appears Bet365 who were (and probably still are) the leaders with getting prices have dropped off a bit with their punctuality.
April 24 Early Thoughts (stakings to come)
Rc1. If Eipermills reported last 400m/800m last start are to be believed I think you're only betting on it getting around safely here. Road To Recovery was a nice debut ran down by a smart one but will find this draw tougher. Who knows with the first starters, probably couldn't be on the rest of them - looks like Sasha might be best of the other who have already had a start.
Rc2. Mustang Cruiser has been knocking on the door here but I think the market will find him so not a betting proposition. Wouldn't count him out somehow ending 3 pegs and not getting a run!
Rc3 No idea how this race will be run. Reason To Be should get a cosy run and run home well but I couldn't take a 2yo unless the odds were really tempting. It will really annoy me if Gosling In Flight doesn't go close in this after beating Sit Down Walter (my tip) last week. After beating a 47rater last week Gosling is in another 47 rater race and only rated 44 so draws well. Think it should be winning.
Rc4 A few that might have a good chance but nothing I'd be willing to back. Maybe Navaebend if it was crazy odds just in case it was able to get an easy lead after it was a much improved run last start.
Rc5 Good little race this. One of the stronger N55 races you will see. Mammals Prince will probably take some beating. Harrys Delight a bit of a danger if Mammals Prince leads, but if Mammals Prince can hand up to Tygerphin then Mammals Prince is probably on a pretty safe bet it gets sprint lane and doesn't have to worry about Harrys Delight. Plumpton Rd a big chance too. Nearly play tris and F4s around those four mentioned. Just bank on Geraldton Wax not being at his best 1st up, Caymangone having a tough run and the other 4 probably not quite as good and drawn wide.
Rc6 Rocky Creed enormous last time out but guessing market finds him. Sports Candy was fantastic in that race as well.
Rc7 They won't be beating Western Sonador but probably not a betting proposition
Rc8 Man Hands V Rubies For Tash. Article in local paper suggests Man Hands will hold the lead and run them along, I'd want to be on Rubies For Tash all day long if that happens. If she is too short I wouldn't want to take the risk ends up 3 pegs though.
Odds are up
Rc1 Eupermill W 5 units
Rc3 Gosling in Flight W 4 units
Rc4 Naveabend 1 unit
Rc5 Box Tri 1,2,9,10 3units for 50%
Rc6 Sports Candy Place 5 units
Rc7 Dust to Diamonds Place 1 unit
Rc8 Rubies for Tash W 3 units. Rusty Crackers a lay here @ $2.10, had a chance to run down Ruby in the 2500m Albury Cup after Ruby burned the gate and he couldn't. Don't think he can cover the extra ground here 1st up and beat her.
22unit spend
Rubies saved the day returning 12.6 units. Keep going Breno - I reckon you are on the brink
per un PUGNO di DOLLARI
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