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Thread: Interdom 2022

  1. #141
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    I think they would love Honolua on Act Now's back so they will want them both to cross I Cast No Shadow. Leader and leaders back - one will win unless last week's run took too much out of Act Now and he cannot even deliver Honolua to the sprint lane
    The red herring could be if Mach Dan follows through on Act Now's back and lands 1x1 after Expensive Ego goes to the death
    The way McCarthy has been talking however, it would seem that he knows Ego cannot sit in the death the whole race and win so who knows
    Would Shadow risk 3 pegs. If they think Honolua will hand up to Act Now it might make them kick up.
    If you owned Honolua would you want to hand up to Act Now and give him a headstart and allow him travel less distance?
    Plenty of questions makes for a great race.

  2. #142
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    This is where it becomes very confusing with Stewart training both. Despite some good distance runs, I am not as convinced that Honolua can lead all the way. I have not properly researched how fast 1 & 2 are, I might do that tonight.
    Overall I have say that it is a bit of a joke that Shadow is a chance purely because of his draw - one of the bad points about harness racing but it has always been that way.

    The old poster's model I referred to earlier, made the 'heats' big races in themselves (and after Rnd1 they are tiered) and the Final only marginally better prizemoney - takes some 'luck of a single draw out of it' and potentially spreads the prizemoney around (attractive if a '24 slots funding model' was introduced)
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  3. #143
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    This is where it becomes very confusing with Stewart training both. Despite some good distance runs, I am not as convinced that Honolua can lead all the way. I have not properly researched how fast 1 & 2 are, I might do that tonight.
    Overall I have say that it is a bit of a joke that Shadow is a chance purely because of his draw - one of the bad points about harness racing but it has always been that way.

    The old poster's model I referred to earlier, made the 'heats' big races in themselves (and after Rnd1 they are tiered) and the Final only marginally better prizemoney - takes some 'luck of a single draw out of it' and potentially spreads the prizemoney around (attractive if a '24 slots funding model' was introduced)
    Hunter Cup this first three on the pegs finished top 4.
    Last year Alta Orlando hands up lead to Arty so by default ran 2nd
    Year before that first three on the pegs finished top 4.
    Year before that lead and leaders back quinela
    Anomaly the year before that because Lazarus and co in top 4 just had too much class on opposition.

    Pretty big advantage

  4. #144
    aussiebreno
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    My take

    Honolua $2.80 Either straight in running line or first crack at the lead. His Kilmore Cup run was almighty and he won't have to do it as hard this time around. With Act Now form horse of the heats.
    Act Now $4.50 You're greatest strength begets your greatest weakness. Can see him working too hard early with too great a field chasing him not Bundoran this week. Fingers crossed for a sit because he showed in the mile heat he can run on strong with the best of them.
    Shadow $8.00 Fantastic draw. Only a month ago beat Honolua in sub 1.49 from off them. Everyone wanted to jump off Mach Dan because he got beat in just outside track record time at Ballarat. Well Shadow only got 5m in track record time, the run wasn't as bad it looked with him paddling the final 100m.
    Mach Dan $8.00 Of the horses who aren't in the possible category he is going to get the best run. Won't have to use petrol tickets so if those possible leaders use up early fuel Mach Dan will be best placed to swoop.
    Ego $9.00 Unless the early lead battle stings too much and Luke can time his leadership attack perfect its hard to see him winning. Just too hard from the death. Will be thereabouts though.
    Prince $17.00 Has had a good series but this price just reflects the cushy run and less distance covered.
    Zuess $21.00 Will get straight into the running line, use no early petrol and could give some cheek late
    Eclipse $21.00 Will have to come around them all when I viewed his best chance as sitting leaders back. Don't think he is good enough to do that.
    Louis $21.00 There is no lead there and I can't imagine in the horses best interest to try. Can't see him getting near the horses who lob leaders and leaders back unless the speed is really on but in that case MD and others would run past Louis.
    Bundoran $26.00 Going to have to come around them all. Admittedly almost knocked off the top 2 seeds in the past 2 heats but those big guns had more than enough reasons to be fading. Even if race rune to suit MD, Zuess, Louis etc still too good for him.
    Delight $31.00 Similar run to MD who is better.
    Pete $101.00 Was relegated to the 2nd tier FFA just 2 months ago.

  5. #145
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    I see Act Now getting the lead, either immediately (because Shadow decides not in their interest to burn too much energy early) or from the death to the lead when someone (Ego?) comes looking for the death. If he is not flat from last week (I hope not, he is a pretty strong type) and Jodi rates him well, I think he then wins - the distance is not a problem and I would be happy with Shadow on his back compared to some others
    The other scenario I see is still Honolua crosses Shadow then Act Now crosses - Honolua on Act Now's back and it becomes a 50/50

    St Louis has good gate speed too so maybe he comes looking first and then gets cover from stablemate Ego persisting - very tricky for Ego as Beyond Delight, splitting the stablemates, could keep him posted early. Mind you St Louis could get posted too if Mach is hard up on Act Now's back
    The betting moves suggest Ego getting cover from St Louis but with the draws it is hard to see that happening

    As you said the - first 100m will tell the story AND it could be sensational
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  6. #146
    aussiebreno
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    I see Act Now getting the lead, either immediately (because Shadow decides not in their interest to burn too much energy early) or from the death to the lead when someone (Ego?) comes looking for the death. If he is not flat from last week (I hope not, he is a pretty strong type) and Jodi rates him well, I think he then wins - the distance is not a problem and I would be happy with Shadow on his back compared to some others
    The other scenario I see is still Honolua crosses Shadow then Act Now crosses - Honolua on Act Now's back and it becomes a 50/50

    St Louis has good gate speed too so maybe he comes looking first and then gets cover from stablemate Ego persisting - very tricky for Ego as Beyond Delight, splitting the stablemates, could keep him posted early. Mind you St Louis could get posted too if Mach is hard up on Act Now's back
    The betting moves suggest Ego getting cover from St Louis but with the draws it is hard to see that happening

    As you said the - first 100m will tell the story AND it could be sensational
    Yes those scenarios with Act Now are certainly plausible. I think the futures bet on Act Now has me reading the race pessimistically for him rather than being objective.

    I don't see Louis having a great time of things whatever happens.

  7. #147
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aussiebreno View Post
    Yes those scenarios with Act Now are certainly plausible. I think the futures bet on Act Now has me reading the race pessimistically for him rather than being objective.

    I don't see Louis having a great time of things whatever happens.
    I see Josh Jenkins has gone for St Louis based on the 'him in the 1x1 sitting on Ego's back' scenario

    https://www.thetrots.com.au/news/art...-in-harnessed/
    per un PUGNO di DOLLARI

  8. #148
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year Adaptor will become famous soon enough
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    Youngest Inter Dominion Final Driver

    Is Ryan Sanderson the youngest driver ( at 19 years) to drive in an Inter Dominion Final?

    if not a Pacers Final, then surely a Trotters Final.

    Chris Lewis was 20 winning on Carclew and Josh Gallagher 21 last series.
    Robert Cameron may be the youngest paing driver with Robin Dundee.

    In addition, Sanderson could join a very small group if he wins, without having another drive during the series.

  9. #149
    aussiebreno
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    Quadruple whammy for the Stewart stable

    Beyond Delight out
    Narutac no longer on the fence
    Mach Dan no longer following through Act Now
    Easier for Ego to get cross

  10. #150
    aussiebreno
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    Maybe Beyond Delight being out makes it a procession.
    Stewarts make a decision on who leads between Honolua and Act Now. Other horse will lob 1-1 or 1-2. Louis gets either 1-1 or 1-2. Ego in the death. Mach Dan to start up 3 wide line, the non leader of Honolua/Act Now then gets flushed out. Winner is Honolua/Act Now depending on who gets what run and the race tempo.

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