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Thread: A Leading Question (stats)

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    A Leading Question (stats)

    Here is a NYE resolution that I may or may not follow through on but I have good intentions.
    (I am pretty sure that I did something similar on here years ago)
    Our product needs to be more interesting and having half the races won by the leader is not exciting stuff. I believe this to be particularly true for our code as a good deal of the time you can narrow down who is likely to lead to a couple of horses. At the gallops they seem to be able to lead from more barriers and for the handful of times I have seen a dogs race, they seem a bit of a scramble but I believe the inside and outside boxes are the favoured draws.

    Now I think most of us think that the leaders win half the time but knowing is another matter so I will try to keep a running tally of how many leaders win in Victoria to see if we have a 'boring' problem
    I won't be watching every race but mainly going off the Stewards Comments column as to who was the leader at the bell. I appreciate that in some longer distance races the bell leader winning does not necessarily equate to a boring race but I am going to present the stats simply as stated

    1/1/24 = 6/9 (Echuca 6/9)
    Last edited by Messenger; 01-04-2024 at 11:40 AM.
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  2. #2
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Jan 2 = 10/17 (Terang 4/8)
    Last edited by Messenger; 02-02-2024 at 10:32 AM.
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  3. #3
    Senior Member Colt Jasper will become famous soon enough
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    Wouldn’t leader at the first post be a better option? i.e at the end of the lead time.

    There is a paucity of such stats in harness racing so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

    (We would love to have that sort of leaders strike rate in WA, especially GP)

  4. #4
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    For short races whoever leads at the mile marker is not necessarily going to represent who led most of the race (and of course there is no such stat for mile races)
    I am examining the 'boring factor' thus I think the bell is better
    Plus these are lazy stats as I am not committing to watching every race (only using the stewards column)

    I would have thought that GP would have a 50% leaders strike rate. You should do the stats for WA Daniel
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  5. #5
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Jan 3 = 15/27 (Mildura 5/10)

    I have added each Day's / Track's total in case anybody is inclined to total them to create individual track stats
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  6. #6
    Senior Member Colt Jasper will become famous soon enough
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    Quote Originally Posted by Messenger View Post
    For short races whoever leads at the mile marker is not necessarily going to represent who led most of the race (and of course there is no such stat for mile races)
    I am examining the 'boring factor' thus I think the bell is better
    Plus these are lazy stats as I am not committing to watching every race (only using the stewards column)

    I would have thought that GP would have a 50% leaders strike rate. You should do the stats for WA Daniel
    Ok I will do the same re Stewards leader. I will commit for January stats for now but only for GP (mobiles). The boring factor is a given I am afraid that the number will probably be higher than 50% leaders re GP.

    The barrier stats on the HRA site re Tracks are interesting but they don’t break down the barriers/distances unfortunately. When it comes to stats re punting, we are way behind the thoroughbreds. The best example I have found is the NZ Stridemaster site re race and individual horse analysis. Sulky App is interesting and gives a lot of information but somethings like their gate speed analysis seem to me to be questionable eg a slow horse from barrier one may lead at a smaller track because the corner comes up quicker etc. An argument could be mounted that little has changed in 50 years in this area of harness racing as far as stats go. Hopefully drivers wearing something like a GPS and the public having access to the data isn't far away.

    Apologies as I am digressing.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Horse Of The Year trish will become famous soon enough
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    Pity they don't have enough room for straight racing in harness.
    It would slove a lot of problems but others will say how stupid.
    But it could create a whole new following, maybe.

  8. #8
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jasper View Post
    Ok I will do the same re Stewards leader. I will commit for January stats for now but only for GP (mobiles). The boring factor is a given I am afraid that the number will probably be higher than 50% leaders re GP.

    The barrier stats on the HRA site re Tracks are interesting but they don’t break down the barriers/distances unfortunately. When it comes to stats re punting, we are way behind the thoroughbreds. The best example I have found is the NZ Stridemaster site re race and individual horse analysis. Sulky App is interesting and gives a lot of information but somethings like their gate speed analysis seem to me to be questionable eg a slow horse from barrier one may lead at a smaller track because the corner comes up quicker etc. An argument could be mounted that little has changed in 50 years in this area of harness racing as far as stats go. Hopefully drivers wearing something like a GPS and the public having access to the data isn't far away.

    Apologies as I am digressing.
    One massive improvement in harness stats (not that I am really interested in it from a punting perspective - as most of them do not give a damn about the animals - only the $) has to be the sectional times showing how much extra ground a horse may have covered compared to being in front all the way
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  9. #9
    Senior Member Colt Jasper will become famous soon enough
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    We ran last a couple of starts back, beaten 24 mtrs at GP. According to Sulky App the horse (Lucca) covered 39mtres extra compared to the horse that led and ultimately ran a close second. In the summary of the race the horse was rated the fourth best run in the race. When he ran second at GP he faced the breeze from barrier five or six and covered an extra 25 mtres compared to the leader and winner which drew barrier 1.

    The greatest performance I have seen at GP was Lazarus when he ran second in a Fremantle Cup and was wide all the way (2500). I think Elsu when he won a big race in the East, sitting deep, is the only horse to come close to this type of performance (in top company).

    Straight racing is a great idea. Does it happen anywhere in the world?

  10. #10
    Super Moderator Stallion Messenger will become famous soon enough Messenger's Avatar
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