Tips

[aussiebreno]

Young

Race 1. Cooba Creek. I was really impressed with his run last week. He worked in quick time to the death, as soon as he got there I actually said to the person next to me that that was the end of Cooba Creek, but he fought on very bravely and nearly won the race. A big run. That was in a C2-C3 race last week, but its a C1-C2 race this week. Not a big drop on paper but have a look at his opposition last week. High view Conall had been winning Menangle Country heats and finals and ran in the Canberra Cup. Mach Cade had been racing in C3-C5 races and same story with Hayden who took on top 3yos last yr. The one and two horse ran a slower time same track and dust then Cooba Creek last week. A few have form around Smokin bopper. Precious M sat outside Smokin Bopper and didnt go down to big a margin. High view Conall was in that race and never seen daylight, if he did he prob wins. Precious M will get a much easier trip this time and that's why I am throwing it in as the other winning chance. $40 wins on both Cooba Creek and Precious M. $20 quinella. Do not take under $2 Precious M and Id even hesitate taking under $3.

Race 4. It's a $16,000 Oaks so obviously there is some decent fillies in the race. But 1.59.4 around Young by Perfectionist is a good run and it looked to have something up the sleeve. The danger is Artista Lombo or Takahoa could take it on early, leaving Freedom Is and Grin and Gold with a big chance to run them down. $100 wins Perfectionist. Don't take under $1.50 but with Freedom Is in the field I can't see that happening.

Race 6 Monifeith. Beaten 5m and 10m Mach Beauty and FAR. If they in this they're both $1.10. Rocketing home in 1.54 over 2400m. He has been racing grand circuit horses, the rest have been racing 'just' FFA horses. $100 wins.

Race 8. Flight to Vegas. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5 over mile at Young. That equates to 1.59 personal time. Add 2 secs for extra distance. 2.01. Similar last start, 1.57.1. Add two secs for distance, add 1 secs as wont be on pegs, will need to cover ground, add 1.2 secs btn margin which gives 2.01.3. Everything else has been getting beaten in slower times. $200 wins.

Race 1. Precious M gallops out, broken gear. Cooba Creek. I think this horse may be tougher than he is faster. Can't keep up when they really get rolling, but can continue churning out quickish quarters. Regardless, when they run home in 28 and 28.9 at Young he didn't have much hope from back where he was. Not a bad run.

Race 4. Perfectionist won, but I nearly wanted to be on Freedom Is at the $6, didn't think it would start that price. From that draw, and when it got the lead with out so much of a whimper from the front row horses Perfectionist was never going to get beat though. Have a look at Marys Little Rose hang back at the start and let Artista Lombo in behind the leader. Artista Lombo wasn't good enough to win, but that is a disgrace, no QDT in the results section, I await stewards report.

Race 6. Very strange, all three McCarthy horses beaten over 20m. Has that ever happened before? Two Eye See gone a long way from home, something wrong perhaps? Machtavish and Monifeith set enormous tasks three wide last mile around four turns.

Race 8. Flight to Vegas. 2.03.2, had the best imaginable trip, and does absolutely nothing in the straight. I don't understand why, a significant drop on past performances for mine. As per my calcs above. Beaten 20m in 1.57.5, mathematics says add 1.5 secs so 1.59. Tried and true at Wagga and Young is adding 2 secs for the mile to middle distance (just take a look at Perfectionist). Thats 2.01. Hows it get flogged in 2.03 is beyond me, running about 2.04 itself. Granted the 2 second theory can be off, but not by that far. A poor performance from Flight to Vegas.