'Brosnan winds down - the game is buggered'

[trish]

I know its on Harnesslink & lots would have read it but I'm posting it anyway so more can....
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Bros...ame-s-buggered-

[Messenger]

I know its on Harnesslink & lots would have read it but I'm posting it anyway so more can....
http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Bros...ame-s-buggered-

Trish, I am going to quote this again in a new thread 'Brosnan winds down - the game is buggered' and reply there as I promised TC that if something was deserving of a thread I would help him out by doing that. If it is likely that a post will get a few replies and as such he would prefer them it not to be in Odds and Ends

NB 'Brosnan winds down - the game is buggered' now has its own thread for replies folks

[Messenger]

http://www.harnesslink.com/News/Bros...hlight=Brosnan

Trish posted this in Odds and Ends but I have started its own thread for it - as it is likely to garner responses (me for starters)

If you find the above link does not open for you just type 'Brosnan' in the search box on the Harnesslink home/news page (I often find that I get a Not Found message when I click on our own boards links!)

Trish what do you think of adjusting the drop back system to 6 starts in NZ (as Richard Brosnan suggests in the article) - considering there are far fewer meets in NZ

[trish]

Kev , I don't think it would matter. If horses are winning one race in NZ then come to Aus & win many in a row , I thinks that gives an answer as to why its buggered.
Bronsoan's like a lot of Aus trainers who used to win a number of races every year but now can not keep up. Even if they did drop back to 6 it still costs & the drop back system in itself is an act of desperation.
What do you think?

To have to the drop back system in the first place shows you that something is very wrong.
A leading trainer said the other day he's going to do what everyone else does & drop back to get in an easier race with his open class horse, if its their they will use it.

[Messenger]

Kev , I don't think it would matter. If horses are winning one race in NZ then come to Aus & win many in a row , I thinks that gives an answer as to why its buggered.
Bronsoan's like a lot of Aus trainers who used to win a number of races every year but now can not keep up. Even if they did drop back to 6 it still costs & the drop back system in itself is an act of desperation.
What do you think?

I am having trouble getting my head around why so many horses can only win one race. Who is winning the C1's in NZ?

I sometimes wonder whether if you are thinking 'my turn will come around' - it is has to be much easier when the fields are small. Whenever I look up an imported NZ horse I regularly see they have been racing in fields of 14 - fields of 7 or 8 at Mildura are a much easier proposition

Why can horses win a few in Australia but not in NZ? Are our horses crap opposition for imports or are there just more races to choose from for the imports?

I attend a few meets in Western Vic and I cannot help but notice that in many races eg C1, I will see 70% of the field is the same horses that raced against each other last week. About half of them find some form and have their turn at winning before 10 starts go by.
I follow Mildura too and about 1/3 of the fields are made up of Cramp trained horses and they all seem to find (multiple) races to win

With Richard Brosnan, I wonder whether the horses from his stable that have been sold were supposed to be his bread and butter horses

I looked up RB's 2014 season and saw he had 9 winners. There are around 77 trainers ahead of him but if he had had 12 winners there would only be about 55 ahead of him. One horse can make a big diff.

http://infohorse.hrnz.co.nz/datahr/p...ship-Both.htm#

There are only 2 trainers with over 100 winners

In Australia with 3 weeks still to go we have
14 trainers with over 100 winners with the possibility of 20 making it. On top of that we have 4 who will top 200

http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...425?d=10082014

I do not know where to find Total races run and whether this number has declined in NZ. We know Aust being bigger has a lot more races but I do not know if the margin is growing

[teecee]

I can't quite lay my hands on the absolute info by as a ball park figure...
4 meetings per week.
12 races per meeting.
av stakes $10,000
Meetings generally.. 1 C0 Trot, 1 C1 faster Trot, 3 C0 Pace, 3 C1 pace, 1 C2 pace, 1 C3 fast pace, 1 3yo C0/C1 pace. roughly.
There are conditioned races scattered throughout the calendar. We have what's called Permier meets like NZ Cup day etc where min stakes are 20k but that is further limited this year with a reduction in premier days.


Generally speaking as you can see not much room to move when each race averages 12 starters.
End result very few horses moving through the classes hence our best options have been to export where NZ imports have often in the past filled your fields. Now with the HRA tax it's another option gone.

[Danno]

I think it's fair to say NZ has always produced more horses than their racing can cater for, thats why they have been big exporters to AUS and North America for decades and decades, the biggest problem people like Richeard Brosnan have been facing is attracting paying clients who want to RACE horses. There are so many reasons this is happening and it's not just happening in NZ, it's happening here, the USA and Canada as well.

One of those reasons is the payback owners are getting/not getting ( and the reasons for this are many, including an increase in the number of races being won by a smaller number of trainers, hence reducing the payback for everyone else)

Another is exposure, the game is shrinking everywhere and we are still marketing the game to existing participants/followers. This has been going on for 25 years at least and we still have our heads stuck in the sand. FFS!!! we need to involve more people from more diverse backgrounds if the game is going to survive, much less flourish.

Sorry to have got off topic slightly , but the article is about a former big player going out in relatively humble fashion, and he's not the first and unless things change dramaticallty he will not be the last.

cheers
Dan

[p plater]

Following on from Dan's comments. If you look at the National top 10 trainers by State, some interesting stats appear.
If you total the number of starters the whole top 10 have had to date by state, the top 3 trainers have had the following starters.
Vic 42.4%
WA 47.8%
Tas 40.4%
SA 34.7%
Qld 48.4%
NSW 41.8%
Yes the pool of trainers is shrinking, leading trainers I assume charge more, owners need a return or they go somewhere else.

[Messenger]

I gather those figures are for the top 3 from the top 10 of each state. Even if the top 10 was very close, you are going to see the top 3 have 30+% so those percentages are not mind blowing really but I know the point you and Dan are making

Using my Vic Only Winning Trainers database (for TAB meetings only)
The Top 15 trainers have won 1072 out of the possible 3560 races ie over 30%

My db lists 579 trainers winning at least one race in Vic
The top 15 is only 2.6% of 579
2.6% of trainers winning 30% of races

I can then take that figure in 2 directions

I could factor in all the trainers who are not on my db because they have not won a race
I am thinking the 2.6% would then become something like
<2% of trainers winning 30% of races (that is allowing for 200 non winning trainers)

The other way I could go would be to eliminate all the hobby trainers from my db
Would halving the 579 be enough? (Saying that there are 290 pro/semi pros)
If so then you could say
5.2% (2.6 x 2) of pro/semi pro trainers are winning 30% of the races

Even if I said there were only about 150 pro/semi pro trainers
that still equates to
10% of them winning 30% of the races

It would seem the pie is definitely not being shared around enough

The other argument would be that as well as the hobby trainers there should only be about 50 pro/semi pro trainers for the size of the Vic market
Some time back I can remember mentioning how little in stakes some of these top trainers are even bringing in
Looking at the linked table, Shayne Cramp for instance has <$800k of prizemoney
http://www.harness.org.au/ausbreed/r...425?d=11082014
He is Victoria's leading trainer by winners.
He obviously makes most of his money from training fees BUT on that return to owners I doubt they are very far ahead
(lets say 50 horses in the stable through the course of the season costing owners $15k each in fees etc)

Back to NZ. I would think that the NZ industry would be similar in size to the Vic industry
Would I be right in thinking that there are at least 50 pro/semi pro trainers in NZ?

[Viv Strangman]

I think it's fair to say NZ has always produced more horses than their racing can cater for, thats why they have been big exporters to AUS and North America for decades and decades, the biggest problem people like Richeard Brosnan have been facing is attracting paying clients who want to RACE horses. There are so many reasons this is happening and it's not just happening in NZ, it's happening here, the USA and Canada as well.

One of those reasons is the payback owners are getting/not getting ( and the reasons for this are many, including an increase in the number of races being won by a smaller number of trainers, hence reducing the payback for everyone else)

Another is exposure, the game is shrinking everywhere and we are still marketing the game to existing participants/followers. This has been going on for 25 years at least and we still have our heads stuck in the sand. FFS!!! we need to involve more people from more diverse backgrounds if the game is going to survive, much less flourish.

Sorry to have got off topic slightly , but the article is about a former big player going out in relatively humble fashion, and he's not the first and unless things change dramaticallty he will not be the last.

cheers
Dan

Can't argue with what you say Dan.
The problem for people like Richard Brosnan is he is as honest as the day is long. I can assure you that he is an oats and chaff man. What you see is what you get.
So not only does he have to cope with an outdated handicapping system, but he is playing by the rule book when most are not.
There is a major problem coming in New Zealand on top of everything else in the form of dramatically smaller foal crops.
Our racing at the moment is running on foal crops of 3000 or close to it.
The reality is shortly that foal crop will be closer to 2000 than 3000
At that point something has to give.
Either New Zealand or Australia via imports is going to take a hit.
And the response to that problem from the powers that be is zero.