Odds On Pops and Other Effects on Market Share

[HaroldParker]

I have never followed WA but you made me take a look.
We have an 800m track with no sprint lane
9/10 winners were the leader
KP twice leads from 1 easily but hands up the lead to the Odds On Fav both times
Runs second both times
Hmm.

It isn't just last Friday mate. I could give you a list as long as your arm and they're not discreet about it.

The integrity of the sport is at stake and the Sheriffs are too busy drink kool aid.

[Viv Strangman]

It isn't just last Friday mate. I could give you a list as long as your arm and they're not discreet about it.

The integrity of the sport is at stake and the Sheriffs are too busy drink kool aid.

Having spent six months in Perth last year based at Byford, you are only scratching the surface believe me.

[Messenger]

A bad afternoon for Odds On pops today at Maryborough. Only 2/5 successful and the 3 beaten were all LONG Odds On pops (< $1.55)
After this arvos meet we have now had 30 out of 57 odds on pops beaten in June in Vic with 8 of the 30 being long odds on.

[Messenger]

I don't think too many odds on pops is good for attracting punters and if I am right then after 13 days of June I think we in VIC have too many odds on favs

In the 13 days of June so far Vic have had 155 TAB races and there have been 77 odds on pops = as close to 50% of races as you are going to get.

Maybe we need to market that there is value to be found in races with an odds on fave as only 41 out of 77 have won ie only 53%

ps I backed Hawthorn at $1.24 tonight and I can tell you that backing odds on pops is not good for the heart

[Richard prior]

Blues gave the Hawks a shake Kev. I've followed the Trots for a lot of years and have always thought there was more value with the Trots than what you get with the Thoroughbreds or Greyhounds, It's a very interesting stat and definitley a bit of value for the punter.

[brent_L]

I don't think too many odds on pops is good for attracting punters and if I am right then after 13 days of June I think we in VIC have too many odds on favs

In the 13 days of June so far Vic have had 155 TAB races and there have been 77 odds on pops = as close to 50% of races as you are going to get.

Maybe we need to market that there is value to be found in races with an odds on fave as only 41 out of 77 have won ie only 53%

ps I backed Hawthorn at $1.24 tonight and I can tell you that backing odds on pops is not good for the heart

Kev, I assume your stats are from the VIC tote?? They would change rather markedly when done on Betfair prices (which I believe is the only true indicator of a horses correct price). My figures over the years show that whether u were to back or lay (for equal stakes of course) each and every fav under $2 u come out pretty much square....paying the commission on winning bets then results in a loss.
ps I hear u re the footy.....that's 2 straight weeks Carlton have scared the begeesus out of me!

[Messenger]

All 4 Odds On pops LOST at Cranbourne tonight. Vic TAB June tally stands at 42/84 (winners or losers does not matter )

[doncht]

Thanks for that. Good number on pops.

[Messenger]

Only 2/6 got up at Shep this arvo. A day of contrasts with two $1.10 winners and two $52+ winners. Running tally for the month is now more losing odds on pops than winners 47-48.

[Messenger]

What a diff a couple of days makes. Winning Odds On pops now leading 59 winners to 52 losers.
If I was a punter I would like it lot clearer however