Quote Originally Posted by Pena View Post
It has got nothing to do with the personalities it just my opinion. I thought Laurens drive on Liberitius the week before shows how much she has improved and does not need to lead at all costs although it seemed to change again last weekend. IMO if Brave Wiggy goes 28.4 and 27.1 it still wins so why was the 27.1 and 28.4 so good. The horse went fantastic but the drive was just a drive. Of course you need luck the way Monarkmac was driven but making the right moves to get that luck is what makes it a good drive.

Notice only one person has discussed the COT. Below is the way SSL was driven when a McCarthy horse was in front. Mmmmmm. The COT rule is basically sactioning not giving some horses a chance. Its a blight on the industry and the sooner its gone the better.


http://www.trotstv.com.au/?mc=PC280913&rn=7
Jack you are not thinking tactically.
The biggest advantage a leader has is that they are already winning and they can set the pace. And other than a horse having the drop on you, one of the biggest disadvantages is that you do not have eyes in the back of your head (you cannot be looking around the whole time)

Let's say I am a driver who knows their horse well and knows their opposition well too.
I know that my horse and his main opposition are capable of running a final half of 54 provided nothing too crazy has happened in the first half
We are inside the half mile and I know that I have a handy gap on my main opposition (they have been caught out) and I know that before they will react to my move I will have a couple more metres (the nature of initiator v reactor)

I could forfeit this extra advantage of surprise and just do a rubber neck and try building the pace to maintain my gap on them, knowing I am still a 70% chance of winning. There is also that slight chance that when you take your eyes off them, they put in a spurt and close the gap (gaining the initiator meters)
OR
I could take advantage of their mistake and my knowledge of how fast I can get to the finish and how fast they are capable of going and increase my winning chance to 90%.

It makes me think of the brilliant drive of Glen Craven on Keayang Steamer when he beat Smoken Up in the Horsham Cup this year. It was a reverse of this situation in that Keayang was right with Smoken but Glen caught Lance out by taking the initiative by accelerating quickly earlier than Lance expected which has become the recipe for beating SU since (the champ does have a fair excuse - 11 of them)